Russian Economy General News: #7

Russian economy to return to robust growth after next year – Kudrin

The former finance minister Aleksey Kudrin expects the Russian economy to grow slow and steady in 2017, before returning to strong growth in the years following.

“The Russian economy is recovering slowly; most probably we will have minimal yet positive growth rates at the beginning of next year,” he said in an interview with Rossiya 24 TV Channel....

https://www.rt.com/business/372249-russia-economy-grow-2017-kudrin/

Oh god, something must be going horribly wrong if frigin Kudrin is optimistic, what's the situation??

AlfaT8 wrote:

Russian economy to return to robust growth after next year – Kudrin

The former finance minister Aleksey Kudrin expects the Russian economy to grow slow and steady in 2017, before returning to strong growth in the years following.

“The Russian economy is recovering slowly; most probably we will have minimal yet positive growth rates at the beginning of next year,” he said in an interview with Rossiya 24 TV Channel....

https://www.rt.com/business/372249-russia-economy-grow-2017-kudrin/

Oh god, something must be going horribly wrong if frigin Kudrin is optimistic, what's the situation??

I was going to post that article last week but for some reason I forgot.

That sounds really positive indeed. 3-4% growth would be absolutely adequate. That would also totally destroy the Russophobic BS narratives about Russia's future (again). Muh kleptoracy gas station collapse by the early 2020s, amirite? The simple fact seems to be that Russia's growth potential and human capital are no worse than many other ex-Eastern Bloc countries, the ones that have been developing more or less well, like Baltic countries or Poland. So a solid convergence to the "western" living standard continues, the long-term trend has not changed.

In reality, there was only a modest recession of 3.5% (the growth rates of 2014 and 2016 more or less cancel each other out), which also didn't change the positive trends regarding demographics and health (growing population, declining death rate).

It seems that the ruble and oil price keep picking up and investor confidence is rising quite considerably. Also, it's pretty likely that sanctions will end next year. Sure, that sounds like I'm repeating western myths and propaganda about the Russian economy - how it needs high oil prices and huge amounts of western investment - but truth to be told, oil prices of something like $20-40 per barrel were really, really low and not optimal.

Regardless of the current crisis between the West and Russia, the overall positive trends in the Russian economy didn't and have not changed. Things like import subtitution and development of the domestic banking sector were already happening anyway and they were always going to be gradual processes. An oil price of something like $60-80 (ruble between 50-60?) per barrel is probably optimal (so between the price of 2013 and 2015).

So it's possible that in a modestly positive scenario the growth rates could be something like: 1.5% to 2% for 2017, 2.5% for 2018, 3% for 2019, 3.5% for 2020 and 4% for 2021 and 3 to 4.5% per year from that point onwards? Maybe, possibly? In that case, not bad at all.

2000-20124 enjoy    

http://www.awaragroup.com/upload/awara-study-russian-economy.pdf

http://www.awarablogs.com/absurd-central-bank-policies-deepen-russias-recession/

Why Nabiullina and the rest of the CBR management should be shot.

kvs wrote:http://www.awarablogs.com/absurd-central-bank-policies-deepen-russias-recession/

Why Nabiullina and the rest of the CBR management should be shot.

Is Putin leaving this scum be because he doesnt understand economics and mistakenly leaves it to the "experts" or is the oligarchic and bourgeois 5th column keeping them in place?

The Hidden Story of Crimea’s Economic Success



Recently Crimea celebrated the 2nd anniversary of its reunification with Russia, marked on the day of the referendum that ended the Ukrainian occupation. Much has been written about the political and geopolitical aspects of the reunification as well as the social sentiments of the people, but little has been said about the economy. I want to lift the lid on that because the results of the economic transition are in fact quite impressive, especially considering the arduous hurdles that had to be overcome in the process.

The transition from the Ukrainian economy to the Russian one meant a transfer from a much less developed economy with a significantly lower price level to a more mature economic environment. Under the Ukrainian rule the black market and corruption were widespread and tax collection a rare occurrence. The problems were compounded by a dramatic suspension of the whole banking system as the Ukrainian banks left the peninsula, to be slowly replaced by Russian banks. Hereby for fear of sanctions the major Russian banks abstained. Trade and logistics patterns were disrupted and new ones had to be created with the Russian mainland, while the direct land access to Crimea from Russia was cut off due to the civil war in Eastern Ukraine.

continued here:
http://www.awarablogs.com/the-hidden-story-of-crimeas-economic-success

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

kvs wrote:http://www.awarablogs.com/absurd-central-bank-policies-deepen-russias-recession/

Why Nabiullina and the rest of the CBR management should be shot.

Is Putin leaving  this scum be because he doesnt understand economics and mistakenly leaves it to the "experts" or is the oligarchic and bourgeois 5th column keeping them in place?

Putin does not have the tyrannical power that the NATO propagandists claim.   He has to juggle diverse interests.    Also, thanks to Yeltsin, the CBR
is not under the control of the Russian government but is a private entity like the US Fed.     So Putin needs extra-ordinary powers to shut this clown shop
down.

But I am disappointed in Putin anyway.   He should be actively undermining the CBR.  For example he should use Sberbank to set an alternative interest
rate.   This would instantly nullify the CBR's absurd rate.   Sberbank is the main bank in Russia and would set the rate trend for all the other banks.    
Putin should have organized the United Russia faction in the Duma to pass laws to enable this sort of CBR bypass.    Nabiullina's statements are
a damning indictment of her gross incompetence or malicious intent.    She should not be free to f*ck around with Russia's economy like some fiddling
Nero.

Sberbank could be supported via alternative money transfers circumventing the role of the CBR in propping up the banking sector. At some stage the
CBR should be shut down as a redundant and useless entity.

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

kvs wrote:http://www.awarablogs.com/absurd-central-bank-policies-deepen-russias-recession/

Why Nabiullina and the rest of the CBR management should be shot.

Is Putin leaving  this scum be because he doesnt understand economics and mistakenly leaves it to the "experts" or is the oligarchic and bourgeois 5th column keeping them in place?

19.02.2016 rub since rose for like 30%

kvs wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

kvs wrote:http://www.awarablogs.com/absurd-central-bank-policies-deepen-russias-recession/

Why Nabiullina and the rest of the CBR management should be shot.

Is Putin leaving  this scum be because he doesnt understand economics and mistakenly leaves it to the "experts" or is the oligarchic and bourgeois 5th column keeping them in place?

   Also, thanks to Yeltsin, the CBR
is not under the control of the Russian government but is a private entity like the US Fed.     So Putin needs extra-ordinary powers to shut this clown shop
down.

 

Well that explains a lot. Best of luck to russians in making this cancerous institution irrelevant.

Militarov wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

kvs wrote:http://www.awarablogs.com/absurd-central-bank-policies-deepen-russias-recession/

Why Nabiullina and the rest of the CBR management should be shot.

Is Putin leaving  this scum be because he doesnt understand economics and mistakenly leaves it to the "experts" or is the oligarchic and bourgeois 5th column keeping them in place?

19.02.2016 rub since rose for like 30%

Not necessarily a good thing.

Russia’s budget to be stable when oil prices are $40 per barrel
Business & Economy
January 09, 0:12 UTC+3

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said earlier that the overall tax burden level of 32% of GDP is enough to ensure a balanced budget

More:
http://tass.com/economy/924003

MOSCOW, January 9. /TASS/. Russia’s budget for 2017-2019 based on an oil price of 40 U.S. dollars per barrel will be stable and there will be no need to increase taxes, Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said in an interview with the Kommersant daily.

"The approved three-year budget demonstrates that under the conservative scenario for the next three years with oil prices of 40 U.S. dollars per barrel public finance will be stable without extra tax burden. The key task of the economic policy is not in trying to guess about the situation on oil markets but in having a clear set of steps in case of any, even the most uneasy, external conditions," he said, adding that under the current oil prices of 54 U.S. dollars per barrel the country’s budget is well ready for the scenario based on 40 U.S. dollars per barrel.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said earlier that the overall tax burden level of 32% of GDP is enough to ensure a balanced budget.

Russia is not planning to raise taxes till 2018. The year 2017 will see a discussion on Russia’s tax system, as announced by the head of state.

According to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, it is planned to decide on possible adjustment for the next political cycle by the spring of 2018.

US senators seek Russia sanctions over hacking, Ukraine, Syria

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/10/us-senators-seek-russia-sanctions-over-hacking-ukraine-syria.html

Senior U.S. Republican and Democratic senators will introduce legislation on Tuesday seeking to impose a wide range of sanctions on Russia over its cyber activities and actions in Syria and Ukraine.

The legislation is sponsored by Republican Senator John McCain and Democrats Ben Cardin and Robert Menendez, all influential legislators on foreign policy matters. Aides said several other senators, both Democrats and Republicans, are also expected to sponsor the legislation, increasing its chances of becoming law.

According to a preliminary summary of the legislation seen by Reuters, the bill would impose visa bans and freeze the assets of people "who engage in significant activities undermining the cybersecurity of public or private infrastructure and democratic institutions" or assist in such activities.

It would also impose secondary sanctions on those who engage with the Russian defense or intelligence sectors, which could affect international companies doing business with Russia. It also puts into law sanctions on Russia that President Barack Obama imposed via executive order late last month.

U.S. lawmakers have long called for a tougher response to Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region and intervention in the Syrian civil war on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Their impatience has increased since U.S. intelligence agencies said Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a campaign to try to sway the 2016 presidential election in favor of Republican businessman Donald Trump.

The bill also sets new sanctions over Ukraine and Syria, including putting into law four executive orders from the Obama administration sanctioning Russia over its actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Among other things, it would mandate sanctions on investments of $20 million or more in Russia's ability to develop its petroleum and natural gas resources.

The bill is being introduced a day before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds its confirmation hearing for Trump's nominee to be secretary of state, former Exxon Mobil chief executive Rex Tillerson.

Many lawmakers from both parties have raised questions about the decades Tillerson spent working with Russia's government as an executive at the oil company, and his ties to Putin. His hearing, set for Wednesday and Thursday, is expected to largely focus on those issues.

^^ Looks like Iran like comprehensive sanction and automatic one does not need Presidential approval.

What can Russia do ?

Russian Reserve Fund for 2016 fell by almost four times

https://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2017/01/10/n_9544451.shtml

Russian Reserve Fund as of January 1, 2017 decreased by RUR almost four times, amounting to 972.13 billion rubles., Which is equivalent to $ 16.03 billion, according to the website the Ministry of Finance.

In 2016, the aggregate amount of the Fund amounted to 3.641 trillion rubles., Which is equivalent to $ 49.95 billion. Thus, the ruble its volume decreased by 3.7 times.

At the same time in December last year, part of the Reserve Fund in foreign currency (S6,87 billion, € 6.44 billion and £ 1.21 billion) were sold for 966.9 billion rubles., And the proceeds deposited into a single account of the federal budget .

In December 2016 the head of the Accounting Chamber Tatyana Golikova warned of the exhaustion of the Reserve Fund in 2017, after which the government will go to the use of the National Welfare Fund.

Austin wrote:^^ Looks like Iran like comprehensive sanction and automatic one does not need Presidential approval.

What can Russia do ?

Russia is Doomed! They really shouldn't have allowed NAziTO to expand to former soviet territories, they are like cancer that spreads and kills, now the situation has turned against Russia, it is unfortunate, im very frustrated over these developments. Russia really need to hasten up the demise and total collapse of the American economy! This is the Only solution to stop this madness, bring down America's financial and economic power! I know this will spell world wide chaos but that is justified. America needs a taste of early 90s Russia. They derserve it.

I was just hearing the Senate Intelligence Hearing on Russian Election Hacks and the DNI , FBI and NSA chief is just blaming Russia for all the hacks squarely.

The senate is putting a lot of question in lot of ways and they are blaming Russia being aggressive.

Shown live on RT Now https://www.rt.com/usa/373248-senate-intel-russian-influence/

From the very hostile tone it appears there will be a very tough sanctions on Russia.

Obama has made sure before he leaves Russia-US relations are screwed to the point of no return not seen even during SU days. Sad

Austin wrote:I was just hearing the Senate Intelligence Hearing on Russian Election Hacks and the DNI , FBI and NSA chief is just blaming Russia for all the hacks squarely.

The senate is putting a lot of question in lot of ways and they are blaming Russia being aggressive.

Shown live on RT Now  https://www.rt.com/usa/373248-senate-intel-russian-influence/

From the very hostile tone it appears there will be a very tough sanctions on Russia.

Obama has made sure before he leaves Russia-US relations are screwed to the point of no return not seen even during SU days. Sad

And no f*cks will be given by Russia.   America has nothing that it can sanction Russia with.   Not electronics, not machinery,
not materials, zero.   If America wants to ban access by Russia to the US market, then Russia can smack them down with exactly the
same in reverse.   And given that the US depends on exports of "high tech" or value added goods, this will be a painful kick in the 'nads.

Project Canada wrote:

Austin wrote:^^ Looks like Iran like comprehensive sanction and automatic one does not need Presidential approval.

What can Russia do ?

Russia is Doomed! They really shouldn't have allowed NAziTO to expand to former soviet territories, they are like cancer that spreads and kills, now the situation has turned against Russia, it is unfortunate, im very frustrated over these developments. Russia really need to hasten up the demise and total collapse of the American economy! This is the Only solution to stop this madness, bring down America's financial and economic power! I know this will spell world wide chaos but that is justified. America needs a taste of early 90s Russia. They derserve it.

Take a deep breath and drink some water. Russia is not doomed whatsover by anything that NATzO does. Russia is a real world example of too big
to fail. Right now Russia can cover essentially all of its high tech needs like never before. It does not need Toshiba to sell it NC machines or Intel
to sell it some CPUs. It can make world class products all on its own. Russia does not need access to NATzO markets or in fact the world market,
its GDP growth is driven by domestic demand. If NATzO decides to play rough and band access then Russia can symmetrically ban all NATzO imports
including civilian aircraft and replace them with quality domestic substitutes.

But this is not 1970s. There is no chance of NATzO banning Russia from the global market. China alone can break such an effort totally. And China
has a lot of developing world loyalists. No. Uncle Scumbag and his NATzO minions have bitten off more than they can chew and will get royally
f*cked in the process of trying to screw over Russia.

Project Canada wrote:

Austin wrote:^^ Looks like Iran like comprehensive sanction and automatic one does not need Presidential approval.

What can Russia do ?

Russia is Doomed! They really shouldn't have allowed NAziTO to expand to former soviet territories, they are like cancer that spreads and kills, now the situation has turned against Russia, it is unfortunate, im very frustrated over these developments. Russia really need to hasten up the demise and total collapse of the American economy! This is the Only solution to stop this madness, bring down America's financial and economic power! I know this will spell world wide chaos but that is justified. America needs a taste of early 90s Russia. They derserve it.

God you are so stupid.

Here are the sanctions so far:

https://ria.ru/economy/20170111/1485453856.html

So sanctions on investments in: Mining, Pipelines and Civil Nuclear. So in other words, absolutely nothing. Russia is one of the largest in civil nuclear engineering, they build their own pipelines along with China and have their own mining industries owned by local mining businesses and foreign who will continue to operate.

Big fricking woop so far.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Militarov wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

kvs wrote:http://www.awarablogs.com/absurd-central-bank-policies-deepen-russias-recession/

Why Nabiullina and the rest of the CBR management should be shot.

Is Putin leaving  this scum be because he doesnt understand economics and mistakenly leaves it to the "experts" or is the oligarchic and bourgeois 5th column keeping them in place?

19.02.2016 rub since rose for like 30%

Not necessarily a good thing.

Well, depends who is buying or selling or importing. For some its good, for some its bad...

Safe rate most have seen for Ruble is roughly 50 rub/usd since it still makes Russian goods much cheaper but also helps levy price increases on imported goods.

Maybe all of this will change with US being a bunch of dipshit losers?

https://ria.ru/economy/20170111/1485453884.html

More on it. Now people cannot be involved in Russia's privatization. They are stating that sanctions can be applied to third parties as well who do so.

I would seriously like to see them to attempt to sanction India, China and others. It will just end up antagonizing these other countries and end up making America alone.

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:I was just hearing the Senate Intelligence Hearing on Russian Election Hacks and the DNI , FBI and NSA chief is just blaming Russia for all the hacks squarely.

The senate is putting a lot of question in lot of ways and they are blaming Russia being aggressive.

Shown live on RT Now  https://www.rt.com/usa/373248-senate-intel-russian-influence/

From the very hostile tone it appears there will be a very tough sanctions on Russia.

Obama has made sure before he leaves Russia-US relations are screwed to the point of no return not seen even during SU days. Sad

And no f*cks will be given by Russia.   America has nothing that it can sanction Russia with.   Not electronics, not machinery,
not materials, zero.   If America wants to ban access by Russia to the US market, then Russia can smack them down with exactly the
same in reverse.   And given that the US depends on exports of "high tech" or value added goods, this will be a painful kick in the 'nads.

The problem with 3rd party sanction is any country investing or organisation companies individual will think hard before investing in Russia , They property money might just confiscated for the simiple fact they are doing business with Russia.

Even countries willing to do so might now charge a premium assuming countries like China and India would want to take such a risk.

I can just hope this bill is not a automatic sanction one and does not get passed in Senate.

Russia has done precious little to put pain to US in terms of countersanction so far its been painless and EU/US has been able to gang up against Russia

Dunno why at this point Russia doesn't bite back. But what will happen is countries like India and China will bypass this easily by setting up front companies.

It will also entice companies from countries already sanctioned to cooperate with Russia. Effectively self destruction of a single world economic structure.

Also, if such pressure is placed on India and China, it will create a bad image for US as it will be trying to control those countries economies and how they operate, thus creating a open hatred for US in even greater proportions.

I actually hope they do follow through with this, as it will do a couple of things:

1) force Russia to start being shits to US and EU through trade by drastically increasing prices for goods and or creating new tariffs. Or going so far as to make it difficult for the companies who are in desparate need of Russian material like Titanium.

2) Force Russia to start cooperating with sanctioned nations more thoroughly in economics.

3) finally move to own banking structures so that it can control its own method of trades with other countries.

4) Finally turn Russia towards more of an Autarky structure and concentrate on own domestic consumption and development (this usually means slower growth rate, but more stable economic system).

5) Force Russia and many others who are tired of US' blackmailing to start their own structures and all work together, ignoring US.

Essentially it creates two kinds of economic structures in various countries one aimed towards western business and investments and one towards eastern/Russian. In doing so, nothing US can do without outright sanctioning country as a whole and I doubt they would attempt that to India again.