Russian economy to return to robust growth after next year – Kudrin
The former finance minister Aleksey Kudrin expects the Russian economy to grow slow and steady in 2017, before returning to strong growth in the years following.
“The Russian economy is recovering slowly; most probably we will have minimal yet positive growth rates at the beginning of next year,” he said in an interview with Rossiya 24 TV Channel....
Oh god, something must be going horribly wrong if frigin Kudrin is optimistic, what's the situation??
I was going to post that article last week but for some reason I forgot.
That sounds really positive indeed. 3-4% growth would be absolutely adequate. That would also totally destroy the Russophobic BS narratives about Russia's future (again). Muh kleptoracy gas station collapse by the early 2020s, amirite? The simple fact seems to be that Russia's growth potential and human capital are no worse than many other ex-Eastern Bloc countries, the ones that have been developing more or less well, like Baltic countries or Poland. So a solid convergence to the "western" living standard continues, the long-term trend has not changed.
In reality, there was only a modest recession of 3.5% (the growth rates of 2014 and 2016 more or less cancel each other out), which also didn't change the positive trends regarding demographics and health (growing population, declining death rate).
It seems that the ruble and oil price keep picking up and investor confidence is rising quite considerably. Also, it's pretty likely that sanctions will end next year. Sure, that sounds like I'm repeating western myths and propaganda about the Russian economy - how it needs high oil prices and huge amounts of western investment - but truth to be told, oil prices of something like $20-40 per barrel were really, really low and not optimal.
Regardless of the current crisis between the West and Russia, the overall positive trends in the Russian economy didn't and have not changed. Things like import subtitution and development of the domestic banking sector were already happening anyway and they were always going to be gradual processes. An oil price of something like $60-80 (ruble between 50-60?) per barrel is probably optimal (so between the price of 2013 and 2015).
So it's possible that in a modestly positive scenario the growth rates could be something like: 1.5% to 2% for 2017, 2.5% for 2018, 3% for 2019, 3.5% for 2020 and 4% for 2021 and 3 to 4.5% per year from that point onwards? Maybe, possibly? In that case, not bad at all.