Russian Economy General News: #5

Now I realized why no one reacted to my post earlier on Russian gdp in ppp terms replacing Germany because it happened way back in 2013 :


Russia breaks into top 5 world economies, displacing Germany : http://www.rt.com/business/russia-gdp-5th-largest-158/

Austin wrote:Russia’s Top 10 Exports

http://www.worldstopexports.com/russias-top-10-exports/2350

In 2014, exports from Russia amounted to US$492.1 billion, up 23.9% since 2010. Russia’s top 10 exports accounted for three-quarters (75%) of the overall value of its global shipments.

Based on statistics from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database, Russia’s total Gross Domestic Product amounted to $3.548 trillion in 2015.

Therefore, exports accounted for about 13.9% of total Russian economic output.

Given Russia population of 142.5 million people, the total $492.1 billion in 2014 Russian exports translates to roughly $3,454 for every person in the country.

Russia’s Top 10 Exports

The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in Russian global shipments during 2014. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from Russia.

   Oil: US$288,361,702,000 (58.6% of total Russian exports)
   Iron and steel: $20,202,919,000 (4.1%)
   Gems, precious metals, coins: $11,579,099,000 (2.4%)
   Machines, engines, pumps: $8,985,440,000 (1.8%)
   Fertilizers: $8,909,523,000 (1.8%)
   Wood: $7,638,190,000 (1.6%)
   Cereals: $6,972,489,000 (1.4%)
   Aluminum: $6,298,128,000 (1.3%)
   Inorganic chemicals: $5,079,839,000 (1.0%)
   Copper: $4,873,518,000 (1%)

Is natural gas included in oil exports?

Usually, yes.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Austin wrote:Russia’s Top 10 Exports

http://www.worldstopexports.com/russias-top-10-exports/2350

In 2014, exports from Russia amounted to US$492.1 billion, up 23.9% since 2010. Russia’s top 10 exports accounted for three-quarters (75%) of the overall value of its global shipments.

Based on statistics from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database, Russia’s total Gross Domestic Product amounted to $3.548 trillion in 2015.

Therefore, exports accounted for about 13.9% of total Russian economic output.

Given Russia population of 142.5 million people, the total $492.1 billion in 2014 Russian exports translates to roughly $3,454 for every person in the country.

Russia’s Top 10 Exports


The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in Russian global shipments during 2014. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from Russia.

   Oil: US$288,361,702,000 (58.6% of total Russian exports)
   Iron and steel: $20,202,919,000 (4.1%)
   Gems, precious metals, coins: $11,579,099,000 (2.4%)
   Machines, engines, pumps: $8,985,440,000 (1.8%)
   Fertilizers: $8,909,523,000 (1.8%)
   Wood: $7,638,190,000 (1.6%)
   Cereals: $6,972,489,000 (1.4%)
   Aluminum: $6,298,128,000 (1.3%)
   Inorganic chemicals: $5,079,839,000 (1.0%)
   Copper: $4,873,518,000 (1%)

Is natural gas included in oil exports?

Yes, as well as downstream products like petrol, diesel etc.

Not sure where defence exports fit in.

bmtppk wrote:dear god so dense lol



US didnt add sanctions on all the people , they specifically wanted to avoid that. Only those in the inner circle /putins friends/  and 5 companies recieved it. And thats about 30 -35 people.  But...putin's buttbuddies were gonna have none of that cuz that means they cant spend the peoples' hard earned money to use it for their vacations in foreign countries( how funny, all the politicians prefer to visit foreign countries instead of vacationing in russia) or invest it into foreign banks.

So ''to make it fair'' for his friends your god and lord putin made new laws and sanctions and taxes on everyone so its very difficult to visit a foreign country ..basically just like his homies have it

Provide proof that additional taxes were added please. Cause they placed counter sanctions and a black list of politicians unwanted in Russia. Nothing about tourists. Someone here recently went to Sochi, no problem.

sepheronx wrote:

bmtppk wrote:dear god so dense lol



US didnt add sanctions on all the people , they specifically wanted to avoid that. Only those in the inner circle /putins friends/  and 5 companies recieved it. And thats about 30 -35 people.  But...putin's buttbuddies were gonna have none of that cuz that means they cant spend the peoples' hard earned money to use it for their vacations in foreign countries( how funny, all the politicians prefer to visit foreign countries instead of vacationing in russia) or invest it into foreign banks.

So ''to make it fair'' for his friends your god and lord putin made new laws and sanctions and taxes on everyone so its very difficult to visit a foreign country ..basically just like his homies have it

Provide proof that additional taxes were added please. Cause they placed counter sanctions and a black list of politicians unwanted in Russia. Nothing about tourists. Someone here recently went to Sochi, no problem.

Yup, bit of a problem when claims like that are made on a forum with lots of Russian members who know reality.

HeNeArKrXeRn is the member here who recently (month or two ago) to Sochi. Cost of flight was as expensive as to fly to India, and hotels were a bit cheaper than here with food being much cheaper and booze. I was given numbers but it is up to him to speak about it.

Maximmm also recently went to Moscow I think. Then there is of course this: http://russia-insider.com/en/business/impressions-moscow-point-improving-economy/ri8990

sepheronx wrote: HeNeArKrXeRn is the member here who recently (month or two ago) to Sochi.  Cost of flight was as expensive as to fly to India, and hotels were a bit cheaper than here with food being much cheaper and booze.  I was given numbers but it is up to him to speak about it.

Maximmm also recently went to Moscow I think.  Then there is of course this: http://russia-insider.com/en/business/impressions-moscow-point-improving-economy/ri8990

It is good to hear that things are still going well (or even improving) in Moscow but what about the other parts of the country? St.Petersburgh, Kazan, Rostov-on-don, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Omsk, Vladivostok, Samara etc.?

Karl Haushofer wrote:

sepheronx wrote: HeNeArKrXeRn is the member here who recently (month or two ago) to Sochi.  Cost of flight was as expensive as to fly to India, and hotels were a bit cheaper than here with food being much cheaper and booze.  I was given numbers but it is up to him to speak about it.

Maximmm also recently went to Moscow I think.  Then there is of course this: http://russia-insider.com/en/business/impressions-moscow-point-improving-economy/ri8990

It is good to hear that things are still going well (or even improving) in Moscow but what about the other parts of the country? St.Petersburgh, Kazan, Rostov-on-don, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Omsk, Vladivostok, Samara etc.?

They are also improving. I visited Nizhniy Novogorod as well as Moskva two months ago. I have been going to Russia constantly every summer. Gorky has changed and improved so much over the last 15 or so years and will continue to do so especially with the World Cup around the corner.

Karl Haushofer wrote:It is good to hear that things are still going well (or even improving) in Moscow but what about the other parts of the country? St.Petersburgh, Kazan, Rostov-on-don, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Omsk, Vladivostok, Samara etc.?

If you are interested , i strongly recommend Russian section of Skyscrapercity.forum

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=345

Lot of construction going on across the country.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

sepheronx wrote: HeNeArKrXeRn is the member here who recently (month or two ago) to Sochi.  Cost of flight was as expensive as to fly to India, and hotels were a bit cheaper than here with food being much cheaper and booze.  I was given numbers but it is up to him to speak about it.

Maximmm also recently went to Moscow I think.  Then there is of course this: http://russia-insider.com/en/business/impressions-moscow-point-improving-economy/ri8990

It is good to hear that things are still going well (or even improving) in Moscow but what about the other parts of the country? St.Petersburgh, Kazan, Rostov-on-don, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Omsk, Vladivostok, Samara etc.?

They are also improving. I visited Nizhniy Novogorod as well as Moskva two months ago. I have been going to Russia constantly every summer. Gorky has changed and improved so much over the last 15 or so years and will continue to do so especially with the World Cup around the corner.

I can believe that it looks better now than it looked 15 years ago. However, sustained improvements to infrastructure require economic growth. Russia must go back to growth sooner or later or otherwise the infrastructure will start to decline because money will run out.

zg18 wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:It is good to hear that things are still going well (or even improving) in Moscow but what about the other parts of the country? St.Petersburgh, Kazan, Rostov-on-don, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Omsk, Vladivostok, Samara etc.?

If you are interested  , i strongly recommend Russian section of Skyscrapercity.forum

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=345

Lot of construction going on across the country.

Yes, I am interested. Thanks. I will look it up soon.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

sepheronx wrote: HeNeArKrXeRn is the member here who recently (month or two ago) to Sochi.  Cost of flight was as expensive as to fly to India, and hotels were a bit cheaper than here with food being much cheaper and booze.  I was given numbers but it is up to him to speak about it.

Maximmm also recently went to Moscow I think.  Then there is of course this: http://russia-insider.com/en/business/impressions-moscow-point-improving-economy/ri8990

It is good to hear that things are still going well (or even improving) in Moscow but what about the other parts of the country? St.Petersburgh, Kazan, Rostov-on-don, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Omsk, Vladivostok, Samara etc.?

They are also improving. I visited Nizhniy Novogorod as well as Moskva two months ago. I have been going to Russia constantly every summer. Gorky has changed and improved so much over the last 15 or so years and will continue to do so especially with the World Cup around the corner.

I can believe that it looks better now than it looked 15 years ago. However, sustained improvements to infrastructure require economic growth. Russia must go back to growth sooner or later or otherwise the infrastructure will start to decline because money will run out.

Actually it requires tax dollars to be spent on it. And there is no indication of any slowdown in terms of infrastructure development
regardless of the inter-annual GDP dynamics.

This is yet more evidence that GKS overestimates the GDP deflator since it does not properly track real inflation.

Austin wrote:Russia’s Top 10 Exports

http://www.worldstopexports.com/russias-top-10-exports/2350

In 2014, exports from Russia amounted to US$492.1 billion, up 23.9% since 2010. Russia’s top 10 exports accounted for three-quarters (75%) of the overall value of its global shipments.

Based on statistics from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database, Russia’s total Gross Domestic Product amounted to $3.548 trillion in 2015.

Therefore, exports accounted for about 13.9% of total Russian economic output.

Given Russia population of 142.5 million people, the total $492.1 billion in 2014 Russian exports translates to roughly $3,454 for every person in the country.

Russia’s Top 10 Exports

The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in Russian global shipments during 2014. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from Russia.

   Oil: US$288,361,702,000 (58.6% of total Russian exports)
   Iron and steel: $20,202,919,000 (4.1%)
   Gems, precious metals, coins: $11,579,099,000 (2.4%)
   Machines, engines, pumps: $8,985,440,000 (1.8%)
   Fertilizers: $8,909,523,000 (1.8%)
   Wood: $7,638,190,000 (1.6%)
   Cereals: $6,972,489,000 (1.4%)
   Aluminum: $6,298,128,000 (1.3%)
   Inorganic chemicals: $5,079,839,000 (1.0%)
   Copper: $4,873,518,000 (1%)

What really matters is Russia's imports. Russia does not need to be an exporter like Germany and Japan. It has the critical mass
and resource base to sustain its economy with domestic production and consumption. So every dollar in imports reduction is precious.

Also there is an implicit trope here. The notion that Russia is a single commodity (oil) banana export economy. It is not, never was
and will never be.

zg18 wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:It is good to hear that things are still going well (or even improving) in Moscow but what about the other parts of the country? St.Petersburgh, Kazan, Rostov-on-don, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Omsk, Vladivostok, Samara etc.?

If you are interested  , i strongly recommend Russian section of Skyscrapercity.forum

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=345

Lot of construction going on across the country.

People should check out the sections pertaining to subway construction in Russia. Canadians can only dream of such intense
construction activity with the resulting high grade stations and service.

BTW, the current York extension of the subway in Toronto is an anomaly. They were talking about this extensions since the
1970s and before. Fourty years to provide a few stations is a pathetic build rate. And Toronto is not like LA, we actually
need and can use subway service.

Sorry guys i was wrong in my previous threads i was bitching that russia doesnt have an economy and all russia does is export its natural resources and ''leases'' land to China to abuse it
well i lied Russia actually has another really cool import. Its so amazing no other country does that.

Each option is economically attractive for Russia since they all provide either income from provision of services or fuel for the future,


They take nuclear waste from all over the world and bury it in their homeland. Like iran for example is
equired to send the used fuel back to Russia. Russian law allows import of foreign used fuel for reprocessing and the return of wastes (as with reprocessing other countries' used fuel in France and Britain), and Russia's default position in supplying reactors to non nuclear weapons states is to take back Russian-origin fuel without requiring return of the wastes, as with Iran.
In 2001 the Russian parliament (Duma) passed legislation to allow the import of spent nuclear fuel.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Nuclear-Wastes/International-Nuclear-Waste-Disposal-Concepts/

its great

If you don't like Russia or well, anything revolving around it, why bother being in this forums then?  All you are doing is trolling and not providing any clear cut evidence of anything.  So may I suggest you leave? We have other real Russians who live in Russia on this forums, so we don't really need you.

sepheronx wrote:If you don't like Russia or well, anything revolving around it, why bother being in this forums then?  All you are doing is trolling and not providing any clear cut evidence of anything.  So may I suggest you leave?  We have other real Russians who live in Russia on this forums, so we don't really need you.

Maybe he is just an Ukrop agent sent by Maidan to wreak havoc in RD.net

Could be an agent... that might explain his motivation.

I mean I don't know about you but I get precious little free time these days... I certainly would not waste the time I have going to places like F16.net and pissing off the natives, but then knowing the western economies these days this guy might just be a pissed off unemployed guy who watches CNN and thinks his life might be crap but at least it is worse in Russia.

Comes to this site and hears it might not be as bad and CNN claims and has to respond.

....so agent or dick.

They take nuclear waste from all over the world and bury it in their homeland.

They don't bury it... they process it into extra strong vodka for missions into Chernobyl to heal their stalkers... The perimeter with monsters is now hundreds of kms wide now and they need lots of healing vodka to keep them going.

Of course the west just dumps their rubbish into the ocean so the major oceans of today are just big toilets... thanks America... this is a Russian site and everything bad is Americas fault... they are the hyper power afterall...

Russia’s GDP decline may exceed ministry forecast — presidential aide

VLADIMIR, August 17. /TASS/. Russia’s GDP decline may equal to 3.5-4% in 2015, which exceeds the forecast by the Economic Development Ministry, Presidential aide Andrei Belousov said on Monday.

"Judging by what was happening in the second quarter I think the decline may be around 3.5-4%," he said.

Earlier Russian Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said the economic situation in Russia should get better in the third quarter while GDP drop will not exceed 2.6-2.8% at year-end 2015. However, according to Ulyukayev, the Ministry is most likely to review its macroeconomic forecast for this year as the country’s GDP dropped 4.6% in the second quarter, exceeding forecast /4.4%/. "We most probably will review the whole forecast for 2015, including of GDP though it’s going to be a slight correction," he said.

Belousov said 4% GDP growth is needed for Russian economy to come out of recession. However, "now if we do not change the structure /of the economy - TASS/ we’ll reach 1-2% growth in 2016," he added.


"We have conditions for stabilizing the situation in the third quarter and facing growth, there will be no head-on recovery, it will be different in different sectors while property construction, car sector and railway machinery raise most concern now," Presidential aide said.

According to Belousov, consumption in Russia is stabilizing, which means decline in retail will cease. However, he is "less optimistic" on investment in Russia.

Presidential aide also touched upon the issue of federal budget deficit. "According to our estimates, revenues base of federal budget totals, and will total over the long term, around 16-17% of GDP," he said. At the same time there are revenues, which cannot be reduced: on defense sphere /7% of GDP/ and social policy /5-6%/. "The remaining 5% may be allocated to reduction of dependency on oil and gas revenues but this will mean we will have to reduce financing of education, economy and everything else," he said.

The remaining 5% of GDP is not enough for financing the key budget items, Belousov said, as 2% of GDP is spent on education, science and culture, 4% - on economy while state spending equals to 1%. "We have 5% while we need 7%," he said, adding that Russia should therefore either increase deficit, or cut budget, or increase burden on business.

Presidential aide does consider reasonable to increase progressive personal income tax. "This will not happen till 2019 as a decision was made not to increase tax burden," he said.

Russia’s GDP decline may exceed ministry forecast — presidential aide

VLADIMIR, August 17. /TASS/. Russia’s GDP decline may equal to 3.5-4% in 2015, which exceeds the forecast by the Economic Development Ministry, Presidential aide Andrei Belousov said on Monday.

"Judging by what was happening in the second quarter I think the decline may be around 3.5-4%," he said.

Earlier Russian Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said the economic situation in Russia should get better in the third quarter while GDP drop will not exceed 2.6-2.8% at year-end 2015. However, according to Ulyukayev, the Ministry is most likely to review its macroeconomic forecast for this year as the country’s GDP dropped 4.6% in the second quarter, exceeding forecast /4.4%/. "We most probably will review the whole forecast for 2015, including of GDP though it’s going to be a slight correction," he said.

Belousov said 4% GDP growth is needed for Russian economy to come out of recession. However, "now if we do not change the structure /of the economy - TASS/ we’ll reach 1-2% growth in 2016," he added.


"We have conditions for stabilizing the situation in the third quarter and facing growth, there will be no head-on recovery, it will be different in different sectors while property construction, car sector and railway machinery raise most concern now," Presidential aide said.

According to Belousov, consumption in Russia is stabilizing, which means decline in retail will cease. However, he is "less optimistic" on investment in Russia.

Presidential aide also touched upon the issue of federal budget deficit. "According to our estimates, revenues base of federal budget totals, and will total over the long term, around 16-17% of GDP," he said. At the same time there are revenues, which cannot be reduced: on defense sphere /7% of GDP/ and social policy /5-6%/. "The remaining 5% may be allocated to reduction of dependency on oil and gas revenues but this will mean we will have to reduce financing of education, economy and everything else," he said.

The remaining 5% of GDP is not enough for financing the key budget items, Belousov said, as 2% of GDP is spent on education, science and culture, 4% - on economy while state spending equals to 1%. "We have 5% while we need 7%," he said, adding that Russia should therefore either increase deficit, or cut budget, or increase burden on business.

Presidential aide does consider reasonable to increase progressive personal income tax. "This will not happen till 2019 as a decision was made not to increase tax burden," he said.

How can Russia change the structure of present Economy for increasing growth to 4 % ?

So it seems Russia in long term will spend 7 % of GDP on Defence ?

If they cannot increase tax on business then a combination of increasing in Debt/Deficit and some reduction on spending must be sought to balance out , Ofcourse kensian would say just keep increasing Debt till its 100 % and beyond

Austin wrote:How can Russia change the structure of present Economy for increasing growth to 4 % ?

So it seems Russia in long term will spend 7 % of GDP on Defence  ?

If they cannot increase tax on business then a combination of increasing in Debt/Deficit and some reduction on spending must be sought to balance out , Ofcourse kensian would say just keep increasing Debt till its 100 % and beyond

Defense isn't even 7% of GDP. That would mean Russia is spending roughly $126B on defense. So either he is an idiot, or lying or didn't state that it is actually 7% of budget (which should be far more than that I think). As well, GDP Growth recovery after 2009 wasn't 7.8%, it was only 4.8% when GDP decline in 2009 was 7.8% total. So it took two years afterwards to recover from that, and that was simply just oil decline. This year, Russia has oil decline, sanctions, significantly reduced FDI, no access to cheap loans, etc. So they will have to take the 3.5 to 4% gdp hit this year and just slowly gain it back in the next couple of years.

He is talking long term and Defence here does not mean just military but the entire defence like para-military, FSB/SVR , Police etc

Austin wrote:He is talking long term and Defence here does not mean just military but the entire defence like para-military, FSB/SVR , Police etc

And those falls under ministry of interior budget, which is roughly a little over a billion.  Rest falls under defense.  So no, that 7% still is wrong unless Russia increased the defense spending this year without any mention of it.  Because of course, there are the official numbers and then magically, the numbers not mentioned (why people speculate China's spending is higher than official statement).

Best Russia can do now is just continue on its course, and rely on next year and year after to bring GDP roughly back to same period of where it was beginning of this year.  Outside of that, not much they can do.  Cutting programs just means reducing currency flow, which means a reduction in production and economic activity.  Russian automotive industry is hit really hard, and that is due to people not spending on new vehicles and foreigners cutting back on production in Russia.  Cutting back in defense spending or other spendings just means further industrial production reducing, and that would mean less working people and less taxation money and less people spending on goods.  So that will ultimately end up with a spiral out of control effect.  They could increase their debt, but that is pointless as they have shelled out tends of billions (if not more) on paying foreign debt off this year already.  Making any cuts will just cause a societal issue, something that isn't needed right now.  They could cut some defense spending, but that some wont be enough of what Basurin is stating.  He is talking about 4% growth, but where does he expect to get that from? out of his ass?  Only way they can get growth is drastically increase domestic investments on new projects, which creates jobs, which then creates more working people, and force minimum wage up high in order to get more money back via taxation.  That is what we do here, we just create a ton of new projects and creates ton of temporary (also pretty decently paid) workers, and then these workers end up spending goods which a lot of that goes back to the government.

And long term what? Needs 4% GDP growth long term of....what?  For his entertainment?  Where did he get that number from?  Why not 10% GDP growth? Or 100%?  But this odd % of 4%?  He is stating 4% to neutralize the losses from this year so far.  But in the same article he said this:

However, "now if we do not change the structure we’ll reach 1-2% growth in 2016," he added.

So that means that growth in 2016 would be 1 - 2%.  That would mean that if it keeps up with that, it would take roughly 1 - 4 years to reach back to december 2014 levels of GDP.

His statement on property construction is odd since that this year, Russia is building a lot: http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/63959/ and http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/62897/

His statement about railways and automotive is spot on though, as railways had their issues late last year to early this year that are still trying to fix.  Then the automotive fell by the most in any industrial production field, which is the major contributor to this whole thing, as agriculture and the rest have drastically increased (but does not outweigh the losses of automotive).  So besides programs like cash for clunkers, trade ins, and cheap credit available to purchase a car with no to little interest, there is no other way they can increase it besides just handing money out to people and say "Buy a car".

Edit: I think there was just a big misquote. This wouldn't be first or last in media history. But some of what he said and numbers don't make sense. And the guy isn't stupid, so he knows where there needs to be growth and what we are all looking at. He is after all, an advisor. He as well as others confirmed growth will happen, but it will take time. The drop in second quarter is .2% greater than what was initially predicted, so I am going to assume that his numbers for final outlook is the extreme case as well, and it is possible that GDP decline may be around 3%.