TheArmenian wrote:flamming_python wrote:TheArmenian wrote:
By the way, some of the biggest losers are the US makers: GM (Chevrolet and Opel) and Ford
Hurting the US automakers without placing sanctions
None of which is good news to Russia though, I'm afraid.
These US automobile makers employ thousands of Russians, including many fine engineers, specialists, etc...
Their pay is typically above the Russian-average, given that their activities are largely concentrated in the richer regions of the Russian Federation; e.g. St. Petersburg and Kaluga.
They also pay large amounts of tax roubles into the federal budget.
Automotive industry is one of the industries I understand very well. So, allow me to provide some information that you might find useful in the future.
- Automotive assembly plant (like the foreign maker's plants in Russia) are just assembly plants. The assembling process of a car makes only about 20% of the total costs of making an automobile. The bulk of the costs is in the design and parts used in making the car.
- Only few foreign makers in Russia have more than 40% of the parts made in Russia. Take the General Motors plants in Russia: The Chevrolet Niva is made almost entirely of Russian parts and is designed in Russia (it is a GM-Avtovaz joint venture after all). The St. Petersburg plant built cars have less than 40% Russian content. The Avtotor plant (which is Russian owned) in Kaliningrad makes GM vehicles out of CKD (complete knock down) kits with very little Russian content.
- Now, which GM vehicles are suffering the most decline in sales?
Obviously the ones made outside Russia will be suffering the most because of the decline in the Russian currency.
Next in line will be the ones assembled of kits (the Avtotor made vehicles) with little domestic content.
Followed by the St. Petersburg produced ones which have some domestic content.
Least decline in sales will be the Chevrolet Niva who's price will be affected the least (because it has the most domestic content)
Now guess what the foreign makers are doing: planning to increase the % of Russian made parts in their Russia produced automobiles.
Here is the site where I follow the Russian automotive market news (in Russian and English): http://www.autostat.ru/
Now, another automotive news piece:
We already know that Lada (Avtovaz) has restarted operations in some European countries. I have information that they have big plans for the Middle East and elsewhere. They are well known in Egypt for example. They have just signed an agreement with a dealership in Lebanon and sales will start there this year.
The decline in the Rubble value will definitely help Russian exporters.
Indeed you are right, I have come across factories that simply do assembly from knock-down kits during my own research for that big list.
But even here for example, there are differences; like for example the difference between SKD and CKD; the earlier being just some assembly of a completely-welded, already-painted shell with pre-assembled engines and other components, and the later taking the form of a kit made up of more broken-down elements, that have to be welded together, painted, electro-plated, with the engines and so on assembled on seperate assembly lines. The later also allows for the gradual introduction of localized parts.
- Indeed Avtotor just does assembly from knock-down kits for European, Asian and American manufacturers. Presumably SKD although I'm not sure.
- Derways does the same only for Chinese manufacturers. I presume these are SKDs.
- TagAZ is bankrupt now but worked with European and Asian manufacturers (it's a CKD-capable plant, with its own welding, electroplating, painting workshops). Although it will be revived under new leadership AFAIK.
- Sollers-Dalnyj Vostok produces Ssangyong, Toyota and Mazda cars. The localization is at no more than about 5% at the moment, so it's pretty much assembly. Although, this is a new factory, and increased localization is certainly planned.
- Skoda has a deal where its SUVs are assembled at the GAZ plant in Nizhny Novgorod, from CKDs.
On the other end of the scale though we have the most-highly localized brands though.
In rough descending order:
Here are some good articles: