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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    Austin


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    Post  Austin Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:31 am

    CB: External Debt of the Russian Federation for 2014 fell 18% to $ 599.5 billion

    MOSCOW, January 20. / TASS /. The external debt of the Russian Federation, according to preliminary estimates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2014 decreased by 18% to 599.5 billion dollars as of 1 January 2015, according to the materials of the Bank of Russia.

    On 1 January 2014 foreign debt amounted to 728.86 billion dollars.


    According to materials of the Bank of Russia, the organs of state administration 41.5 billion, the new Russian debt on January 1, 2015 amounted to 39.18 billion dollars, a decrease of 33.6% year on Soviet-era debt decreased by 11.5% to 1, 77 billion dollars. It is the duty of the Central Bank decreased by 37.5% to 10.4 billion dollars, the debt of the banking sector - by 20% to 171.1 billion dollars, other sectors - 376.5 billion dollars.
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    Post  Austin Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:35 am

    Ulyukayev: Reserves in 2015-2017 years will be enough to cover the missing budget revenues

    The total amount of the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund now stands at about 10 trillion rubles., Reminded the Minister of Economic Development


    MOSCOW, January 14. / TASS /. Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that the accumulated reserves of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund in the 2015-2017 years will be enough to cover the missing revenues. He expressed this opinion, speaking at the Gaidar Forum in Moscow.

    He recalled that the total amount of the two funds is now about 10 trillion rubles., NWF commitments for future infrastructure projects account for 1.7 trillion rubles.


    "That is 8.3 trillion rubles. - It's liquid assets. If we believe that the financial gap we will have in 2015 to 3 trillion, that these reserves will last for three years in the parameters equal to 2015. However, in the 2015-2016 fiscal rule years implies a sharp change in the level of costs and reduction of financial gap. That is to say reserves in any case be more than enough "- said the minister.

    Estimated Finance Minister Anton Siluanova, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation in 2015, is likely to be no more than 2%, a maximum of 3% of GDP.
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    Post  Austin Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:09 am

    Hopefully in the next 3 years they can double the amount of NWF/RF to like 20 Trillion , so that it can support budget for 6 years ......not sure if that is possible or just wishful thinking on my part.

    I think they should reduce the military expendure by says 2 Trillion and reduce the budget expenditure specially some social program from 10 % to 20 %

    Russia Budget for 2011-2020 is 23 Trillion , Shaving of 3 trillion by 2020 wont do much harm I feel.

    Also reducing Social Spending by 1 trillion rouble by 2020 should be feseable.

    HSE has made some projection based on Average Oil Price of $50 in 2015-2017 , The Growth will be down by

    http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2643523

    2015 : -6.5 %
    2016 : - 4.4 %
    2017 : - 0.6 %

    So the drop in GDP based on conservative estimates by HSE if Oil stays at $50 would be ~ 12 % Drop in GDP in 2015-2017
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:38 am

    Austin wrote:Hopefully in the next 3 years they can double the amount of NWF/RF to like 20 Trillion , so that it can support budget for 6 years ......not sure if that is possible or just wishful thinking on my part.

    I think they should reduce the military expendure by says 2 Trillion and reduce the budget expenditure specially some social program from 10 % to 20 %

    Russia Budget for 2011-2020 is 23 Trillion , Shaving of 3 trillion by 2020 wont do much harm I feel.

    Also reducing Social Spending by 1 trillion rouble by 2020 should be feseable.

    HSE has made some projection based on Average Oil Price of $50 in 2015-2017 , The Growth will be down by

    http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2643523

    2015 : -6.5 %
    2016 : - 4.4 %
    2017 : - 0.6 %

    So the drop in GDP based on conservative estimates by HSE if Oil stays at $50 would be ~ 12 % Drop in GDP in 2015-2017

    I think those projections ignore growth and potential growth in other areas of the economy to be frank, and overstate the loss of investor confidence. Basically I've heard of almost no major investors pulling out from Russia; other than Google which had a couple development offices here - but their pullout was clearly political; they are practically intertwined with US intelligence.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:12 pm

    Austin wrote:Hopefully in the next 3 years they can double the amount of NWF/RF to like 20 Trillion , so that it can support budget for 6 years ......not sure if that is possible or just wishful thinking on my part.

    I think they should reduce the military expendure by says 2 Trillion and reduce the budget expenditure specially some social program from 10 % to 20 %

    Russia Budget for 2011-2020 is 23 Trillion , Shaving of 3 trillion by 2020 wont do much harm I feel.

    Also reducing Social Spending by 1 trillion rouble by 2020 should be feseable.

    HSE has made some projection based on Average Oil Price of $50 in 2015-2017 , The Growth will be down by

    http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2643523

    2015 : -6.5 %
    2016 : - 4.4 %
    2017 : - 0.6 %

    So the drop in GDP based on conservative estimates by HSE if Oil stays at $50 would be ~ 12 % Drop in GDP in 2015-2017

    Neutral see my last post. Prediction is current everything else but oil and ruble value drop just calculated. Not potential sales of metals, possibility of consumer demand, import substitution, sales of end goods, increase sales of petrol itself, etc.

    Those figures are inflating everytime you post. First you say 5.5% now you say 6% what is next? 10%? And will you even believe it? I guarentee you that GDP PPP of Russia will roughly stay the same or drop a bit this year.
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    Post  Vann7 Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:38 pm



    Russia is aiming for 2 years of deficit in the worse case.. and just 6 months in 2015 in the best one.. That correct the argument that Russia will not create new jobs and replace the investors that left.. just today a US Company announced investments in Russia energy in the far east..
    not obeying US sanctions. And already the oil everyone and their mother including saudi Arabia is saying it will stabilize and improve.. Simply US cannot continue with too low shale oil prices for very long.. already one american shale company filled for bankruptcy and this is why Saudi Arabia is raising the oil a bit to not put too much pressure in US shale business..
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:16 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Austin wrote:Hopefully in the next 3 years they can double the amount of NWF/RF to like 20 Trillion , so that it can support budget for 6 years ......not sure if that is possible or just wishful thinking on my part.

    I think they should reduce the military expendure by says 2 Trillion and reduce the budget expenditure specially some social program from 10 % to 20 %

    Russia Budget for 2011-2020 is 23 Trillion , Shaving of 3 trillion by 2020 wont do much harm I feel.

    Also reducing Social Spending by 1 trillion rouble by 2020 should be feseable.

    HSE has made some projection based on Average Oil Price of $50 in 2015-2017 , The Growth will be down by

    http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2643523

    2015 : -6.5 %
    2016 : - 4.4 %
    2017 : - 0.6 %

    So the drop in GDP based on conservative estimates by HSE if Oil stays at $50 would be ~ 12 % Drop in GDP in 2015-2017

    I think those projections ignore growth and potential growth in other areas of the economy to be frank, and overstate the loss of investor confidence. Basically I've heard of almost no major investors pulling out from Russia; other than Google which had a couple development offices here - but their pullout was clearly political; they are practically intertwined with US intelligence.

    They do ignore it. Simply put, predictions are always garbage. Ukelele (your economics minister whom is as usefull and knowledgeable in economics as a brick) couldnt get any of his predictions correct. No one so far has. So people, to get a name for themselves and justify their jobs, will create ridiculous amount of predictions. But it becomes hard to get any one of them correct because they take current economic figures, and just go the whole year as that measure.

    Technically, if they get a good year of harvest, mixed in with cheaper imports (this year will be the year where imports from Iran, Brazil and what not increase drastically to meet domestic demand and replaces Europe) and possibility of other industries doing well (already steel makers and other producers seen massive increases in export, making Indian steelmakers sweat) that can easily increase wealth. Problem is, Russia is still making a profit from oil sales being much lower, so these GDP forcasts are both political and stupid. It all has to do with government budget. Production and sales of Russian oil and gas has been up quite a bit, same with steel and other producers. Technically, they are increasung profits but total profit revenues are down due to value of oil and gas. But how does an economies gdp drop because of that? It doesnt. Only thing that has caused it to drop is the value of rub to usd, which is pointless now. Which means nominal gdp figures are pointless now. It is now all about PPP, and I doubt therr will be a drop.
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    Post  Viktor Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:39 pm

    Now here is some great news Very Happy thumbsup

    Russia foreign debt (public + state one) has droped by 129.4 billion $ in a SINGLE year russia or almost 18%

    Incredible default Russia

    Russia's foreign debt at January 1, 2015 was $ 599.497 billion, a decline for the year to $ 129.4 billion, or 17.8%. In the fourth quarter of last year, domestic borrowers paid nearly $ 80 billion. The state debt (including obligations of the Central Bank) dropped even more - by 33.2%, to $ 51.9 billion. Of this amount, governments have to $ 41.516 billion for the Central Bank - $ 10.407 billion
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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:23 am

    Viktor wrote:Now here is some great news  Very Happy  thumbsup

    Russia foreign debt (public + state one) has droped by 129.4 billion $ in a SINGLE year  russia or almost 18%

    Incredible default Russia

    Russia's foreign debt at January 1, 2015 was $ 599.497 billion, a decline for the year to $ 129.4 billion, or 17.8%. In the fourth quarter of last year, domestic borrowers paid nearly $ 80 billion. The state debt (including obligations of the Central Bank) dropped even more - by 33.2%, to $ 51.9 billion. Of this amount, governments have to $ 41.516 billion for the Central Bank - $ 10.407 billion

    Of the remaining $599.497 billion only part is real debt.

    http://www.bne.eu/content/story/fears-russian-credit-crunch-greatly-exaggerated-say-analysts

    As for the western rating companies (so-called agencies) about to rank Russia's sovereign credit rating as junk
    when it has a 5% of GDP in debt, that speaks for itself.
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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:51 am

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Crushing-The-U.S.-Energy-Export-Dream.html

    Exporting crude oil and natural gas from the United States are among the dumbest energy ideas of all time.

    Exporting gas is dumb.

    Exporting oil is dumber.

    The EU is not going to stick it to Russia by sucking on the US gas tit.
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:23 am

    kvs wrote:
    Viktor wrote:Now here is some great news  Very Happy  thumbsup

    Russia foreign debt (public + state one) has droped by 129.4 billion $ in a SINGLE year  russia or almost 18%

    Incredible default Russia

    Russia's foreign debt at January 1, 2015 was $ 599.497 billion, a decline for the year to $ 129.4 billion, or 17.8%. In the fourth quarter of last year, domestic borrowers paid nearly $ 80 billion. The state debt (including obligations of the Central Bank) dropped even more - by 33.2%, to $ 51.9 billion. Of this amount, governments have to $ 41.516 billion for the Central Bank - $ 10.407 billion

    Of the remaining $599.497 billion only part is real debt.

    http://www.bne.eu/content/story/fears-russian-credit-crunch-greatly-exaggerated-say-analysts

    As for the western rating companies (so-called agencies) about to rank Russia's sovereign credit rating as junk
    when it has a 5% of GDP in debt, that speaks for itself.

    That is the thing. They keep making everyones debt in Russia the national debt. Russia's debt itself is only a fraction of that. That is listed is the national foreign debt and not the governments. If we were to add Japanese private debt to foreign entities with the governments debt, then it would be higher than the 290% of GDP that it is now.
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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:08 am

    sepheronx wrote:

    That is the thing.  They keep making everyones debt in Russia the national debt.  Russia's debt itself is only a fraction of that.  That is listed is the national foreign debt and not the governments.  If we were to add Japanese private debt to foreign entities with the governments debt, then it would be higher than the 290% of GDP that it is now.

    But my point was not just the distinction between state debt and private debt. It was that a lot of the private "debt" is
    actually accounting tricks. That is something nobody in the media understands or bothers to clarify.

    I view the $129 billion paid off in 2014 as a massive slap in the face to the west. A paid off loan does not bring in any
    interest revenue.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:12 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Viktor wrote:Now here is some great news  Very Happy  thumbsup

    Russia foreign debt (public + state one) has droped by 129.4 billion $ in a SINGLE year  russia or almost 18%

    Incredible default Russia

    Russia's foreign debt at January 1, 2015 was $ 599.497 billion, a decline for the year to $ 129.4 billion, or 17.8%. In the fourth quarter of last year, domestic borrowers paid nearly $ 80 billion. The state debt (including obligations of the Central Bank) dropped even more - by 33.2%, to $ 51.9 billion. Of this amount, governments have to $ 41.516 billion for the Central Bank - $ 10.407 billion

    Of the remaining $599.497 billion only part is real debt.

    http://www.bne.eu/content/story/fears-russian-credit-crunch-greatly-exaggerated-say-analysts

    As for the western rating companies (so-called agencies) about to rank Russia's sovereign credit rating as junk
    when it has a 5% of GDP in debt, that speaks for itself.

    That is the thing.  They keep making everyones debt in Russia the national debt.  Russia's debt itself is only a fraction of that.  That is listed is the national foreign debt and not the governments.  If we were to add Japanese private debt to foreign entities with the governments debt, then it would be higher than the 290% of GDP that it is now.

    This is also true about U.S. debt, the combined govt., corporate, individual debt is well over $60 trillion.
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    Post  Austin Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:58 am

    Amount of Russian Debt Coming Due in 2015 Is Overstated

    Russian investment bank, Renaissance Capital estimates the official $120bn statistic is overblown by 40%
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    Post  Austin Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:48 pm

    Dvorkovich: budget cuts in 2015 could reach 15%


    Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich did not rule scale spending cuts budget in 2015 to 15%. "We will reduce some of the costs by 10%, perhaps - by 15%." The first number he called "More likely". Remaining the same the budget deficit will be financed from the accumulated reserves from previous years, he said, noting that Russia will use the reserves for "The most important priorities."

    "In the first quarter of 2015. stability of the banking system is a key factor, so we decided to use part of the reserves to recapitalize banks. For the year as a whole, we use part of the reserves to maintain the stability of the fiscal system, "- said Dvorkovich at a session of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

    Deputy Prime Minister also said that the oil price is not so important for Russia's budgetary system as before.

    Dvorkovich also said that there is no reason to cancel the food sanctions imposed by Russia against the West. "We have no plans yet to cancel the embargo, and further depends on what will happen to the sanctions", - quotes the statement of Vice-Premier journalists TASS. He added that Western sanctions have deprived the Russian manufacturers able to borrow at competitive rates.

    -------

    https://www.russiadefence.net/viewtopic.forum?t=3775
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:13 pm

    I see Russian gov is always living in austerity mode and really not wanting a budget defecit. Cant blame them but at same time, cutting can be dangerous, could mean higher unemployment and slacking production/manufacturing. Austerity wont save Russia, it will be actual spending that will.  But, I suppose they are going to go the slow, steady, route to recovery...
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    Post  Kyo Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:58 pm

    Contrary to Obama's statements in his State of the Union speech, Russia is in perfect calm
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:31 pm

    I see moody's is on offense as they have lowered credit ratings of comoanies and regions in Russia, eveb though they are now banned in Russia, but attempting anyway. I dont understand why Itar Tass still posts what they say, since the credit agencies are now barred from Russian economics.
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    Post  par far Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:46 pm

    I don't think we should care much about what outside(west) says because it is BS more then half the time. Russia should work on becoming self reliant and getting rid of the petro dollar and the dollar in general.
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    Post  Austin Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:52 pm

    Russia’s anti-crisis plan to require $21 billion — deputy PM

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/772463
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:57 pm

    $21b for anti crisis plan? That is a tiny sum. Do you happen to have any idea what the plan entails? I only heard about regions lowering business taxes and giving free land in far east to people who will grow food on them. Outside of that, not a peep.
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    Post  Vann7 Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:08 am

    Biggest oil platform in the world on sea is Russian and have began operations.. now..  


    http://actualidad.rt.com/economia/164086-rusia-petroleo-mayor-plataforma-extraccion


    It have about 9 Billions USD $ in oil .. and is in cooperation with US exxon mobile and Japan..
    If anyone had doubts about the profitability of Oil and the future of Russia oil industry.. this should
    put it to rest.. Russia will start drilling in the sea. This shows how confident is not only RUssia..but also
    US and JApan energy companies about the importance of Oil deposits in the world.  Previosly it is estimated
    by Opec members than demand for energy will triple in the next decade..  So today there is oversupply
    but in just 5 years things will be completely different..Because population will grow , energy demands will grow
    too with the nations development.. and the exporting of energy will be less..and the price of oil will sky rocket. USA for example will not have enough Oil and Gas for its own needs..and will need to import more from VEnezuela ,Canada and Mexico..and  probably even buy energy from Russia.

    Is also interesting to notice how US sanctions are complete hypocrisy .. The make exceptions when is convent
    for their major energy companies. Exxon Mobil will not have to obey the US sanctions.. and you see there Europe
    being taken as fool.. because US gov allow loopholes on sanctions to Russia whenever benefit them. This
    happens with NASA buying space technology from RUssia and also buying military hardware for afganistan. and
    for energy business.

    If anyone is an investor here.. go take your money RUN an invest in Oil and Gas.. is a safe market and we witness
    today is just artificially lowered prices and temporary. i will not be surprised that Oil returns to $100 per barrel at end of year.. and $120 in 2 years.
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    Post  sepheronx Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:37 am

    I had a conversation with someone about technology and electronics, and one thing comes to my mind, why Russia has not done this yet. What I am referring to is a multiparts manufacturer of basic electronic components. A company that deals with making transistors, capacitors, basic PCB's, logical chips (so CPU's and DSP's, etc), motherboards, etc. Simply, the company can be kind of like a No Name Brand, making components for all Russian companies in the cheap and en mass.

    For instance, making CPU's would be the biggest task and require the majority of the funding, which in this time, can be put aside (they could license produce Komdiv 64 MIPS or MCST Elbrus processors as example, or Multiclet). But the equipment to make PCB's of various designs like motherboards and controller boards and what not, is quite cheap. As well, make their own brand of basic consumer RAM and Storage devices. Many manufacturers in China make a no name brand (some of them is even considered pirated chips), amplifiers for audio systems, etc. A huge portion of the equipment can be purchased from China for fairly cheap and in the beginning, the company can be subsidized till they get off the ground and enough contracts to supply various companies/agencies, then the subsidies can be lifted. This could solve Russia's largest problem of semiconductor supply.
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    Post  sepheronx Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:41 pm

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/772711

    If they are banned from Russia, why is Russian media still fixated on what these credit agencies do then? I think someone should inform Itar and Sputnik news that these credit agencies are banned and their ratings are now void.

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/772702

    So this kinda explains what the crisis package entails. All sounds good except for one thing, the unemployment benefits increase. Instead of increasing unemployment benefits, the money should go towards job employment centers and training facilities to edducate and train people in jobs that are in demand, as well as educational centers to help people learn what they can do in this time. For instance, help in teaching to grow your own food, as an example, or use a computer to your advantage. I imagine there will be a need for jobs in security, construction and alike during this crisis.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Jan 22, 2015 6:57 pm

    Even the US govt. isn't willing to 'isolate' Russia... lol1 lol1 lol1  

    Congress alarmed by plans to use Russian system to route 911 calls


    ... thumbsup thumbsup thumbsup China to invest $242 billion to create a massive 7,000 km fast rail line from Beijing to Moscow and back, because you know Russia is so 'isolated':

    Moscow to Beijing in 2 days: China to build $242bn high-speed railway

    The title is misleading, they say to Beijing to Moscow would take 2 days as opposed to 5 days normally, but in reality it will only take 30 hrs in total (as admitted in the article) with the new 7,000 km rail line. We're talking about only 1 day and 6 hours, so if there's 24 hours in a day and you could fit '4' 6 hour periods in a 24 hour period...which means the trip to Beijing to Moscow would only take an astonishing '1.4' days in total, virtually '1/3'-'1/4th' the time it would take normally. Naturally this will also aid Russia in developing it's Far East region.

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