Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #12

miketheterrible wrote:So what aircraft do you guys think will stay in Syria? And ships? I am guessing Su-24 and Su-30 mixed in with the MiG-29SMT? Need some air superiority mixed in with some ground capabilities.

It'll probably depend on how things develop in Syria.

In 2016 they announced a partial withdrawal only to come back not long afterwards

JohninMK wrote:There is an interesting Russian in this picture. At the back of the group and in the frame slightly to the left of Putin's head dressed in a parka. That is 'briefcase' man, never far from the Boss. Actually he seems to be part of a team of 'briefcase' men as another takes over in Turkey later in the day. They both look pretty 'useful'.

There is a lots of better shots of him in 30 minute video on ruptly. Also members of ФСО setting up perimeter befor Putin exit the plane, there was something like 15 of them.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

franco wrote:

JohninMK wrote:This picture shows the Russians holding back Assad as Putin starts walking to a military ceremony by the look of it. There is an interesting Russian in this picture. At the back of the group and in the frame slightly to the left of Putin's head dressed in a parka. That is 'briefcase' man, never far from the Boss. Actually he seems to be part of a team of 'briefcase' men as another takes over in Turkey later in the day. They both look pretty 'useful'.

I suspect a machine pistol instead. Noticed him and 2 others coming off Putin's plane. All carrying bags and looking everywhere else.

It's their version of the "Football".

ETC a brief case they will enable nukes to be launched.

Probably a ballistic protection... :

I called this wrong, I thought they were operating from their home bases.


Russian long-range Tu-22M3 bombers that took part in the military operation in Syria are leaving the operational airfield in North Ossetia, from where they made combat sorties, and returning to the points of permanent deployment, said the Defense Ministry.

'
Probably Syria, some more horsing around by fun-lovin' pilots of the VKS. They are probably all super depressed now that bossman gave them order to go back home, no more unsupervised fun times for them...

Some of them will be staying, so maybe they will continue to get their fun.

miketheterrible wrote:So what aircraft do you guys think will stay in Syria? And ships? I am guessing Su-24 and Su-30 mixed in with the MiG-29SMT? Need some air superiority mixed in with some ground capabilities.

Americans don't fly west of the Euphrates. They can send Su-35 and Su-30 fighters home and keep the Su-24 Su-34 Su-25 and MiG-29SMT for ground attack.

archangelski wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

franco wrote:

JohninMK wrote:This picture shows the Russians holding back Assad as Putin starts walking to a military ceremony by the look of it. There is an interesting Russian in this picture. At the back of the group and in the frame slightly to the left of Putin's head dressed in a parka. That is 'briefcase' man, never far from the Boss. Actually he seems to be part of a team of 'briefcase' men as another takes over in Turkey later in the day. They both look pretty 'useful'.

I suspect a machine pistol instead. Noticed him and 2 others coming off Putin's plane. All carrying bags and looking everywhere else.

It's their version of the "Football".

ETC a brief case they will enable nukes to be launched.

Probably a ballistic protection... :

Maybe even this. Look at the fingers.

^ That briefcase AK is a real cool piece of kit. I'd love to have one, lol. Russian security must've been nervous about Putin's Egypt trip, and rightly so, due to incidents like the plane bombing over the Sinai and the way they did Sadat (Muslim Brotherhood, IIRC?). Looking at those pics, I'd say there's a fair chance Putin is wearing body armor under his suit. You cannot be too careful in that place.

Putin drafts bill for expansion of Russian navy base in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin has submitted to the lower house of Russia’s parliament an agreement to transform the Tartus navy refueling facility in Syria into a fully-fledged navy base, capable of harboring nuclear-powered ships.

The development would be for a term of 49 years and would grant the Russian Navy access to the territorial waters and to various ports of the Syrian Arab Republic. The revamped Tartus navy base would be able to accept up to 11 ships at once, including nuclear-powered vessels....

https://www.rt.com/politics/412950-putin-drafts-bill-seeking-expansion/

Russia’s MiG-29SMT aircraft welcomed back to Astrakhan from Syria

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/russias-mig-29smt-aircraft-welcomed-back-astrakhan-syria-video/

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Putin’s Declaration of Victory in Syria Opens Door for Russian Strikes on ISIS in Libya


Suddenly, the news of Russia negotiating the use of Egyptian bases makes a lot more sense.


http://russia-insider.com/en/putins-declaration-victory-syria-opens-door-russian-strikes-isis-libya/ri21922

https://theaviationist.com/2017/12/09/u-s-f-22-raptor-allegedly-interfered-with-russian-su-25s-over-syria-and-chased-away-by-su-35s-russian-mod-claims/


HAHAHAHAHAH raptor chased away by Su-35 !!! The big brother protect its littles su-25 !

Last news from western media, somthing similar happened today

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-jets/u-s-jets-fire-flares-to-warn-russian-jets-in-syria-idUKKBN1E82KX

On sputnik Russian MoD denies it happened howeever.

Equipment loaded onto cargo vessel

Top grade PR campaign underway.

JohninMK wrote:Top grade PR campaign underway.

You're saying it's all for show?

The Americans are saying they haven't detected any "significant" pullout....at least going by all the videos, it seems pretty significant

Cyberspec wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Top grade PR campaign underway.

You're saying it's all for show?

The Americans are saying they haven't detected any "significant" pullout....at least going by all the videos, it seems pretty significant

Top grade PR campaigns are just that. I didn't say it was just for show as it clearly isn't but is reflects a seriously changed operational situation at least as much as a political move.

What the Russian MoD is doing is very cleverly trying maximising the impact of the withdrawals that they are making. To me, apart from the aircraft it doesn't seem that much so far but it does show a serious intent for the future.

Compare it to the recent US withdrawals, in particular the 500+ Marine artillery unit that was shelling Raqqa. They could have made a good story out of that but the kings of PR missed a trick there.

PapaDragon wrote:
Equipment loaded onto cargo vessel

The return of the equipment and the personel that we see returning is not to be surprised.

The return of the Iveco LMV is the most significative part, while a bigger presence of the L-39 in the Syrian Air Forces is being impulsed, as expected.

The nature of the presence of Russia in the future will be different. The stage of testing of new warfare is finished, the stage of ground attack of the air campaign is also surely finished, and likely the sea transport operation will have a temporary rest now. The presence of Russia in the next stage of the war will be significantly more related to the Air Defense, with some advanced Surface-Air and Air-Air weapons, in adition to the less advanced Syrian weapons that have to work in high densities, but remain effective.

Likely, a higher foreign intervention in Syria, hostile to the gouvernment, would make that to change.

Also, is likely to see, a new joint Russia-Lebanon Joint Air Defense command.

Political PR not withstanding, it's probably premature from a pracrtical point of view. IS is still active around DeZ an there's still Idlib to deal with

eehnie wrote:..............

Also, is likely to see, a new joint Russia-Lebanon Joint Air Defense command.

Why would Russia fiddle with Lebanon? Especially now when they got everything they wanted in east Med?

There is nothing in Lebanon.

PapaDragon wrote:

eehnie wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Equipment loaded onto cargo vessel

The return of the equipment and the personel that we see returning is not to be surprised.

The return of the Iveco LMV is the most significative part, while a bigger presence of the L-39 in the Syrian Air Forces is being impulsed, as expected.

The nature of the presence of Russia in the future will be different. The stage of testing of new warfare is finished, the stage of ground attack of the air campaign is also surely finished, and likely the sea transport operation will have a temporary rest now. The presence of Russia in the next stage of the war will be significantly more related to the Air Defense, with some advanced Surface-Air and Air-Air weapons, in adition to the less advanced Syrian weapons that have to work in high densities, but remain effective.

Likely, a higher foreign intervention in Syria, hostile to the gouvernment, would make that to change.

Also, is likely to see, a new joint Russia-Lebanon Joint Air Defense command.

Why would Russia fiddle with Lebanon? Especially now when they got everything they wanted in east Med?

There is nothing in Lebanon.

Is not in the interest of Russia, Lebanon, Syria and Iran to allow the plans floating under Hariri resignation.

Do you dislike the option? Many thigs you dislike are likely to happen.

PapaDragon wrote:

eehnie wrote:..............

Also, is likely to see, a new joint Russia-Lebanon Joint Air Defense command.

Why would Russia fiddle with Lebanon? Especially now when they got everything they wanted in east Med?

There is nothing in Lebanon.

There is a lot in Lebanon. Energy geopolitics being one, regional stability being another, a bit of trade (small but still money) and ultimately Israel. Russia setting an anchor in Lebanon would only bother a certain set of nations - nations which could care less and work actively against the interest of Russia and trample upon them when they see fit - case in point Syria. Yet we're still to believe as some misguided posters have commented that Israel and Russia are allies or neutral partners.... biggest joke I've ever heard.

ATLASCUB wrote:
Yet we're still to believe as some misguided posters have commented that Israel and Russia are allies or neutral partners.... biggest joke I've ever heard.

I hope you're right. Russia may have what it wants now in Syria (bases). But to keep them it'll have to continue to be helpful to Damascus even after the civil war is finally wrapped up. In other words it'll have to strengthen Syria (and Lebanon too maybe) against the Israeli air force (and the rest of their armed forces). I can understand why Russia has done nothing to help Assad against Israeli raiders up to now. The principal focus has been on ISIS and other enemies of Assad. But that should change soon, especially given Trump's tilt toward Israel. The nutty embassy move is helping to refocus attention where it ultimately belongs, on Israel. Just like the USSR, Russia will have to help the arabs against Israel to maintain its regional influence and bases.

Since the creation of the Joint Air Defense Command (if I remember well the designation) and even before, the Israeli aircrafts entered not in the Syrian air space. The attacks to Syria have been done with Surface-Surface missiles from the territory they control or with Air-Surface missiles launched also from the territory they control. Some missiles pass, but doing little damage to Syria in overall terms.

Taking into account the effectiveness of the measure vs the the strongest Syrian enemies, Surely Lebanon also wants the same. Like this seems to be positive for every ally of Russia in the region, and seems to be a measure of very low additional cost for Russia, is likely to happen.

Even it is possible to see in the future a Russia-Syria-Lebanon Joint Air Defense Command.

Russia must do everything it can to secure Lebanon from Wahabbi control. It must also make sure that Iraq stays in Iran's orbit. This
way Russia gets a middle eastern bulwark against NATO sponsored salafi nutjobs. The bulwark also helps secure Lebanon, Syria and
Iraq against these vermin.