par far wrote:sepheronx wrote:AlfaT8 wrote:sepheronx wrote:KoTeMoRe wrote:sepheronx wrote:KoTeMoRe wrote:OminousSpudd wrote:KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean.KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.
Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.
The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.
But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it? I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves. These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia. Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)? Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether. And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing. No accomplishment or anything.
I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was. What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists. They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too. So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.
If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.
They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...
You are running on the pretext that the Kurds are going to fight them. They will not be. They were condemned by their own people and following what US is telling them, to leave. There are a few pockets fighting Turkey, but that is it. Once they are dealt with, Turkey will expand further and then set sights on Assad. They may not attack Russian soldiers and equipment, but will prevent them from providing any aid by supporting a no fly zone and thus forcing Russia to stick to the ground and not do anything while Assad falls.
WTF, Seph are you drinking something or has your account been jacked, there's no F'ing way the Kurds would run away like that regardless of what there spineless higher-ups or uncle sam says.
The Turks are trying to prevent the Kurds in the west and east form liking up there's no way in hell they would go for Assad unless they're suicidal.
"No fly-zone" against Russia, i would like to see them try.
But it isn't about what you guys think you know, but about the possibilities. What if Turkey does attempt this? What will Russia do? You think Russia will step in? Because they didn't when Russian pilot died (A Russian died). I am starting to lose trust in Putin and well, reasons are this situation now and this article: http://russia-insider.com/en/must-watch-russian-analyst-mikhail-khazin-explains-how-putin-has-broken-away-international-elite-and Russia has too many people within the government that have openly talked against Putin and still managed to keep their jobs. If he was really good at what he does, he would have dealt with these internal issues. He would have retaliated against Turkey and not forgiven them so quickly, and they wouldn't have allowed Turkey to venture into Syria. These Kurds issue could have been resolved by Syria and Russia without needing someone else to openly invade territory and flood it with terrorists.
Read this: http://theduran.com/turkeys-illegal-invasion-syria-proves-erdogan-no-friend-russia/
I have read both of your articles and both of them are very good articles, the first one, really opened my eyes as to what was going on with the western elites, the elites in west have abused their power for far too long and created too many wars, so the world does needs to be reshaped and Putin is trying to do that, the war on terror, the Arab springs, the terrorist attacks and shooting down of civilian planes, the western elites went too far and broke their own rules, so I admire Putin for, reshaping the world.
Onto Turkey, Erdogan was never a friend of Russia(he is a slave of the west and he needs to remain one because if he is not, than he will be killed and Russia knows this), the Russian pilot being killed is very said(RIP to the young pilot), Russia responded by economic(this was the right move because they want war and Russia does not) and Turkey felt, them and that is why, Turkey came back to be "friends"(again they are not and Russia knows this) and this is good for Russia because, you keep your friends close but your enemies closer, Turkey is in Syria, which is good for Russia because now Russia can make Syria a graveyard for Turkey and hopefully get Erdogan killed(on Russian terms and not on west's terms). This is what I think can happen but we never know with this situation but one thing I do know, is who ever, wins in Syria is going to make the rules, so the stakes are high.
Turkey wants not only to prevent the two Kurds blocks to be unified. They also want that there is not a continuous Kurd-Assad territory. The first reason for it is to avoid land supplies from Iraq (and primarily from Iran) to both the Kurds of the Western pocket and the Syrian government. And the second reason is to keep their own land supply lines from the oil areas controled by the Gulf states and by the ISIS.
Sitting in the middle like PapaDragon said they can assure it. but it will not be an easy rest for them, because both Assad and the Kurds are interested in to open the land supply lines from Iraq (and Iran) by the Kurdish territory. Who will fight the Turks? Basically the Kurds and their allies that have stronger supply lines from Iraq (and Iran). Very interestingly, Turkmen allies of the Kurds in Syria asked the Turks to go home.
Also this will only increase the current war between the Turks and the Kurds in Turkey. Of course the Kurds will not do a war of front lines vs the Turks. But there is a war Seph, there is a war between the Kurds and the Turks.