Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

par far wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

OminousSpudd wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!

KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean.

It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.

But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it?  I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves.  These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia.  Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)?  Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether.  And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing.  No accomplishment or anything.

I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was.  What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists.  They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too.  So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.

If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.

They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...

You are running on the pretext that the Kurds are going to fight them.  They will not be.  They were condemned by their own people and following what US is telling them, to leave.   There are a few pockets fighting Turkey, but that is it. Once they are dealt with, Turkey will expand further and then set sights on Assad.  They may not attack Russian soldiers and equipment, but will prevent them from providing any aid by supporting a no fly zone and thus forcing Russia to stick to the ground and not do anything while Assad falls.

WTF, Seph are you drinking something or has your account been jacked, there's no F'ing way the Kurds would run away like that regardless of what there spineless higher-ups or uncle sam says.
The Turks are trying to prevent the Kurds in the west and east form liking up there's no way in hell they would go for Assad unless they're suicidal.
"No fly-zone" against Russia, i would like to see them try.

But it isn't about what you guys think you know, but about the possibilities.  What if Turkey does attempt this?  What will Russia do? You think Russia will step in? Because they didn't when Russian pilot died (A Russian died).  I am starting to lose trust in Putin and well, reasons are this situation now and this article: http://russia-insider.com/en/must-watch-russian-analyst-mikhail-khazin-explains-how-putin-has-broken-away-international-elite-and  Russia has too many people within the government that have openly talked against Putin and still managed to keep their jobs.  If he was really good at what he does, he would have dealt with these internal issues.  He would have retaliated against Turkey and not forgiven them so quickly, and they wouldn't have allowed Turkey to venture into Syria.  These Kurds issue could have been resolved by Syria and Russia without needing someone else to openly invade territory and flood it with terrorists.

Read this: http://theduran.com/turkeys-illegal-invasion-syria-proves-erdogan-no-friend-russia/

I have read both of your articles and both of them are very good articles, the first one, really opened my eyes as to what was going on with the western elites, the elites in west have abused their power for far too long and created too many wars, so the world does needs to be reshaped and Putin is trying to do that, the war on terror, the Arab springs, the terrorist attacks and shooting down of civilian planes, the western elites went too far and broke their own rules, so I admire Putin for, reshaping the world.

Onto Turkey, Erdogan was never a friend of Russia(he is a slave of the west and he needs to remain one because if he is not, than he will be killed and Russia knows this), the Russian pilot being killed is very said(RIP to the young pilot), Russia responded by economic(this was the right move because they want war and Russia does not) and Turkey felt, them and that is why, Turkey came back to be "friends"(again they are not and Russia knows this) and this is good for Russia because, you keep your friends close but your enemies closer, Turkey is in Syria, which is good for Russia because now Russia can make Syria a graveyard for Turkey and hopefully get Erdogan killed(on Russian terms and not on west's terms). This is what I think can happen but we never know with this situation but one thing I do know, is who ever, wins in Syria is going to make the rules, so the stakes are high.

Turkey wants not only to prevent the two Kurds blocks to be unified. They also want that there is not a continuous Kurd-Assad territory. The first reason for it is to avoid land supplies from Iraq (and primarily from Iran) to both the Kurds of the Western pocket and the Syrian government. And the second reason is to keep their own land supply lines from the oil areas controled by the Gulf states and by the ISIS.

Sitting in the middle like PapaDragon said they can assure it. but it will not be an easy rest for them, because both Assad and the Kurds are interested in to open the land supply lines from Iraq (and Iran) by the Kurdish territory. Who will fight the Turks? Basically the Kurds and their allies that have stronger supply lines from Iraq (and Iran). Very interestingly, Turkmen allies of the Kurds in Syria asked the Turks to go home.

Also this will only increase the current war between the Turks and the Kurds in Turkey. Of course the Kurds will not do a war of front lines vs the Turks. But there is a war Seph, there is a war between the Kurds and the Turks.

sepheronx wrote:...................

But you guys keep ignoring my statement.  The Kurds will NOT be fighting Turks or US.  US is backing Turks, and US controls the Kurds.  Their leader already agreed to withdraw.

Of course they wont. They take orders from their Sugar Daddy. People forget that a week ago those same Kurds were starting an open war against SAA.

So just let Kurds and Turks enjoy each other up there on Uncle Sam's dime.

eehnie wrote:....................
Very interestingly, Turkmen allies of the Kurds in Syria asked the Turks to go home.
..................

Precisely why Turks will stay as far away from Russian troops and proxies as possible. Turkmens can describe in great detail the hell that descended upon them from the sky after Turkish little egotrip with Su-24.

sepheronx wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

OminousSpudd wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!

KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean.

It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.

But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it?  I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves.  These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia.  Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)?  Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether.  And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing.  No accomplishment or anything.

I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was.  What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists.  They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too.  So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.

If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.

They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...

You are running on the pretext that the Kurds are going to fight them.  They will not be.  They were condemned by their own people and following what US is telling them, to leave.   There are a few pockets fighting Turkey, but that is it. Once they are dealt with, Turkey will expand further and then set sights on Assad.  They may not attack Russian soldiers and equipment, but will prevent them from providing any aid by supporting a no fly zone and thus forcing Russia to stick to the ground and not do anything while Assad falls.

WTF, Seph are you drinking something or has your account been jacked, there's no F'ing way the Kurds would run away like that regardless of what there spineless higher-ups or uncle sam says.
The Turks are trying to prevent the Kurds in the west and east form liking up there's no way in hell they would go for Assad unless they're suicidal.
"No fly-zone" against Russia, i would like to see them try.

But it isn't about what you guys think you know, but about the possibilities.  What if Turkey does attempt this?  What will Russia do? You think Russia will step in? Because they didn't when Russian pilot died (A Russian died).  I am starting to lose trust in Putin and well, reasons are this situation now and this article: http://russia-insider.com/en/must-watch-russian-analyst-mikhail-khazin-explains-how-putin-has-broken-away-international-elite-and  Russia has too many people within the government that have openly talked against Putin and still managed to keep their jobs.  If he was really good at what he does, he would have dealt with these internal issues.  He would have retaliated against Turkey and not forgiven them so quickly, and they wouldn't have allowed Turkey to venture into Syria.  These Kurds issue could have been resolved by Syria and Russia without needing someone else to openly invade territory and flood it with terrorists.

Read this: http://theduran.com/turkeys-illegal-invasion-syria-proves-erdogan-no-friend-russia/

Calm down man, we all know about your dislike with Putin since he didn't smash Kiev into splinters.
That said, the issue at hand is this "possibility" not being possible unless Erdocunt go's full retard, no matter how i look at it, be it economical, political, militarily or even socially, the cost for Turks would be insane.
Russia didn't forgive Turks after that shoot down there were serious political and economical ramifications for them, and what could Russia do to stop Turkey from venturing into Syria and why/how should Russia stop them, let them fight the Kurds all they want, less Turks to deal with later not to mention F'ing over the only party that the U.S could actually use in Syria.

But PapaDragon these are not the same Turkmens, these are eastern Turkmens.

See this map. The source, very pro-Western habitually colors the Western allies in blue or green, and the Russian allies in red. The bad guys (for them) always in red. And interestingly the territory controled by the government of Iraq is in red.

http://mideast.liveuamap.com/

See this map, and see my previous comment:

eehnie wrote:Turkey wants not only to prevent the two Kurds blocks to be unified. They also want that there is not a continuous Kurd-Assad territory. The first reason for it is to avoid land supplies from Iraq (and primarily from Iran) to both the Kurds of the Western pocket and the Syrian government. And the second reason is to keep their own land supply lines from the oil areas controled by the Gulf states and by the ISIS.

Sitting in the middle like PapaDragon said they can assure it. but it will not be an easy rest for them, because both Assad and the Kurds are interested in to open the land supply lines from Iraq (and Iran) by the Kurdish territory. Who will fight the Turks?

Looking at this map, is obvious. The overall picture of the war is far (and still here is not included the war in Turkey), far more enlightening than the Syrian map alone. Red+Yellow vs Blue+Green+Black. The map for Turkey to complete the overview:

http://turkey.liveuamap.com/

The war is looking well for the coalition of Russia, and is looking bad for the coalition of Turkey+Arab League+US.

eehnie wrote:But PapaDragon these are not the same Turkmens, these are eastern Turkmens.

See this map. The source, very pro-Western habitually colors the Western allies in blue or green, and the Russian allies in red. The bad guys (for them) always in red. And interestingly the territory controled by the government of Iraq is in red.

http://mideast.liveuamap.com/

See this map, and see my previous comment:

eehnie wrote:Turkey wants not only to prevent the two Kurds blocks to be unified. They also want that there is not a continuous Kurd-Assad territory. The first reason for it is to avoid land supplies from Iraq (and primarily from Iran) to both the Kurds of the Western pocket and the Syrian government. And the second reason is to keep their own land supply lines from the oil areas controled by the Gulf states and by the ISIS.

Sitting in the middle like PapaDragon said they can assure it. but it will not be an easy rest for them, because both Assad and the Kurds are interested in to open the land supply lines from Iraq (and Iran) by the Kurdish territory. Who will fight the Turks?

Looking at this map, is obvious. The overall picture of the war is far (and still here is not included the war in Turkey), far more enlightening than the Syrian map alone. Red+Yellow vs Blue+Green+Black. The map for Turkey to complete the overview:

http://turkey.liveuamap.com/

The war is looking well for the coalition of Russia, and is looking bad for the coalition of Turkey+Arab League+US.

liveuamap is a pro west site, there is russia maps(it barley worked or I don't not know how to work), if anyone can give a link to that site, it would be nice.

par far wrote:

eehnie wrote:But PapaDragon these are not the same Turkmens, these are eastern Turkmens.

See this map. The source, very pro-Western habitually colors the Western allies in blue or green, and the Russian allies in red. The bad guys (for them) always in red. And interestingly the territory controled by the government of Iraq is in red.

http://mideast.liveuamap.com/

See this map, and see my previous comment:

eehnie wrote:Turkey wants not only to prevent the two Kurds blocks to be unified. They also want that there is not a continuous Kurd-Assad territory. The first reason for it is to avoid land supplies from Iraq (and primarily from Iran) to both the Kurds of the Western pocket and the Syrian government. And the second reason is to keep their own land supply lines from the oil areas controled by the Gulf states and by the ISIS.

Sitting in the middle like PapaDragon said they can assure it. but it will not be an easy rest for them, because both Assad and the Kurds are interested in to open the land supply lines from Iraq (and Iran) by the Kurdish territory. Who will fight the Turks?

Looking at this map, is obvious. The overall picture of the war is far (and still here is not included the war in Turkey), far more enlightening than the Syrian map alone. Red+Yellow vs Blue+Green+Black. The map for Turkey to complete the overview:

http://turkey.liveuamap.com/

The war is looking well for the coalition of Russia, and is looking bad for the coalition of Turkey+Arab League+US.

liveuamap is a pro west site, there is russia maps(it barley worked or I don't not know how to work), if anyone can give a link to that site, it would be nice.

Yes, yes, it is very pro-Western as I said, but there are still some very interesting details.

First to see the territory of Iraq under the shii arabs in red, as Syria, asn Novorussia, as Crimea,...
Second to see a different blue for Turkey than the used for the US, NATO or Ukraine. But blue still.
Third to see the Afghan Talibans in Green. A different green but green after all.

I would love to see the overall Irak-Syria-Turkey picture in better sources, but I do not know them.

sepheronx wrote:Further proof of Turkey not changing stance:

https://southfront.org/turkey-creates-security-zones-near-jarablus/

Essentially, they stated Bashir Al-Assad lost legitimacy and want him gone.

They can state to their heart's content, they are not the ones making decisions on that topic.

Besides, Assad will go at some point just not where they want him to.

Some SAA general who is cozy with Russia will get his job while he retires to a beach-side hacienda or gets a job as minister of health or something (he is doctor after all).

sepheronx wrote:You guys make no sense. First it is "Turkey will be busy fighting Kurds" to saying "of course Kurds are sugar daddy men". So if they are sugar daddy men, then they won't be fighting turkey so turkey can now concentrating beating Assad or they are fighting Kurds. You guys got an answer for everything, even if it contradicts your previous statements.

There's no first or second. The Turkish force that was moving towards manbij area from Jarabulus, attacked rear guard of SDF formation. These guys answered with mortars. This much has been reported by both sides.
Concentrating on beating Assad HOW? Firt Turkish plane to fly towards Aleppo or Latakia "à la 2014" get downed. First artillery rounds from Turkish side to hit SAA positions in Syria get funny "ISIS" Kornets and are "lightly damaged".

Nothing I've said contradicts my position. Turkey wanted breathing room against Kurds and that helped calm the Kurds down. This happened by the US betraying their "best" allies against ISIS. Betrayal is common in the Middle East, but it doesn't go down easily. Restoring FSA positions against ISIS is something Turkey, unlike the Russians, can't do for long. And with the Kurds being JUST around the corner this screams one giant flat-pie for the kiddies.

But hey let's be friends and wait for this to pan out. If I was to listen to you or anyone else here, Syrian State shouldn't even exist by now, although it is the ONLY state-like structure that survives in Syria.

Interesting comment from SOuth Front.. from an User..

by @Pave Way IV
This was an ISIS rescue operation - Turkey and the U.S. didn't want good anti-Assad head-choppers to go to waste. Where are the ISIS prisoners? Where are the ISIS bodies? Nobody has a cellphone for pictures in Jarablus?? There were fewer FSA troops invading Jarablus than there were SDF at Manbij. Jarablus should have taken weeks and the entire town would have been flattened by the time it was liberated. The whole idea of any kind of invasion to kick out ISIS is absolutely preposterous.

There were maybe a couple of thousand ISIS fighters in Jarablus yet absolutely no battle (except for fake ones claimed by Turkey/US). Some random shelling that hit nobody; no destroyed vehicles; no destroyed buildings. No mass exodus or giant convoys of head-choppers either during or before the invasion - to al Bab or anywhere else. That is all a western MSM lie to cover up the fact that all the ISIS fighters were recycled into al Nusra. There were probably celebrations in the streets as ISIS head-choppers welcomed their Turkish head-chopper brothers during the 'invasion'.

In other words, some shady deal by everyone concerned that sent a few hundred al Nusra and child-beheading al-Zenki into Jarablus to hand out official Moderate Head-Chopper Army ID cards to the quite alive and well ISIS head-choppers. Turkey 'liberated' Jarablus by recruiting all the ISIS head-choppers to Turkish-friendly al Nusra and al-Zenki. Great way to fight your war on ISIS, Turkey: just rebrand the former ISIS terrorists and send them back to Aleppo.

Let that be a lesson to the Kurds: the hundreds of YPG cannon-fodder that died to 'liberate' Manbij died for Turkey. Most of the head-choppers escaped to Jarablus, and now they're changing uniforms and will be back to kill Kurds tomorrow and claim more Syrian land for Turkey. The U.S. Special Forces/CIA backstabbers are ready to betray you the same way in Raqqa (but only after a few thousand Kurds die to retake the city). You were better off with the devil you knew.

The situation in Syria from my point of view is like this.. the zones the Syrian army dont control in Northern Syria are the ones at risk. This is Idlib,ALbab,And Kurdish zones. The kurdish zones were lost anyway for a very long time.

The thing now people need to be a ware is this..

- The operation of TUrkey inside of Syria could become their vietnam. And it will cost
 a lot of money for them to have so many tanks there ,soldiers and combat planes.. securing their zones.

-Kurds dreams for a kurdistan are over.. as long Turkey is in northen Syrian.
So effectively Kurds focus of attention (if they have any brains left) will not be Syria ,but
instead the Turkey Army.

-Just like when Turkey shot down the Russian plane..If they do it again in Syria ,it will be
a casus belli for war and all their armies will be bombed to hell in northern Syria. This means
that Turkey if become too greedy and go beyond northen Syria ,it will end again losing trade relations with Russia , losing the Tourism from Russia something that really hurt Turkey economy and will be losing the pipeline that is also Good for Turkey and will be losing the nuclear reactor another important thing for Erdogan. So Erdogan preferences it is my opinion.
will be to stay with northern Syria in the parts ISIS and ALqaeda control and not fight the Syrian army directly, because if they do that, that will pull RUssia into their help.. and will threaten any gain by Turkey in Syria.  If Turkey try to push Syrian Army away of Aleppo it will create a situation ,where they will risk Russia creating a no fly zone for them, which Russia can do..


-This means that Russia have red lines in Syria and Latakia and Aleppo are part of this.. This is
because for Syria to Survive as a nation is necessary they have access to the mediterranean sea
and not landlocked. and a vital supply route from Damascus is also necessary. So Russia will not allow Turkey to either take latakkia or Aleppo.. because that either threatens their base or the survibility of the Syrian state.

What all this means is that i only see in short or medium term , the only thing being threatened is northern Syria.that is the zones that terrorist controls already could be replaced by FSA with backup of Turkey army.

So Russia will not leave Syria without a fight. And Turkey will be bogged down in Syria ,will find itself in a vietnam like war , because Russia and IRAN will not leave. So Turkey will find itself in a very long long war ,that will eventually destroy Erdogan image in Ankara and force him to be kicked by its closes supporters when they start losing soldiers . Because Aleppo alone the fights will have to be done street by street ,apartment by apartment,it will be a stalingrad for NATO..and Russia ,Neither IRAN ,will not allow NATO ,Neither Turkey to bomb Syrian army positions
in Aleppo   endlessly without a retaliation.  If they do it , they risk a full scale war with Russia..and Russia will not leave without a fight.  If Russia leave Syria ,and abandomn the Syrian army ,that only will destroy Putin popularity and United Russia party too. and it will place at risk Russia future if the wrong people ,ie.. the liberals takes control of Russia.

So far , Turkey-NATO is on the move now , but it will not be easy for them to over Run Syria any more than it was in 2011-2015.  On another alarming note.. Turkey is using chemical weapons..

And this could be a major issue for Syrian Army. But again i dont think Russia will abandon Syria.. People already have world  examples of what happens when a nation invades a country and do not have the support of its population. You have vietnam example and IRAQ example.
In both United States stood there for a decade..won all battles ,or most of them..and still have to leave. So ERdogan is become to greedy as try to over run all syria will completely find it cannot do it with Russia supplying weapons to Syrian army and Russian airforce support. It will have to bomb Russian military base in Syria and that will be war. So eventually Turkey will have to retreat to its own border. Then Russia have its nuclear option ,to use tactical nukes against Turkey army fighting Syrian army in Syria ,to make sure NATO understand Syria will not be over run.  


Seph have done good question.. but have ignored others..

-What will happen If Turkey push too much and provoke a war with Russia?
-What will Turkey do.. if in the war against Russia , Russia start bombing Ankara? and Turkey
military bases? Dont forget Turkey rear flank is exposed big time. All Turkey navy can be sent to the button of the sea. in the black sea.. and then will force Erdogan By FORCE to capitulate
in Syria and retreat.

So it will not be an easy war for NATO.. not remotely. If Erdogan calculate wrong ,and
push a war against Russia. It will be game over for him. because even though Russia do not
have the desire or the economy to invade Turkey and neither will do that , Russia however
can cause a LOT of Damage to Turkey economy , A LOT of damage to Turkey military from the black sea. Russia can force Turkey to peace , using lethal force. and they will do it.

This is because Erdogan ,contrary to what i though. Do cares about Turkey interest. And i will say for Erdogan Turkey is first and Islam is second. So he will not like to see Turkey destroyed
just for a piece of land in Northen Syria.. it will not be worth of it. And if a major full scale war is done.. from Turkey against Russia.. Russia have plenty of power, plenty of force to force Erdogan capitulate in Syria. And erdogan knows NATO will not comes to his help will be alone in a war with Russia. So this is what makes me believe , Erdogan unless goes full retard ,will avoid
a direct fight with Syrian ARmy and Russia. Because that will risk the entire operation totally.
And will only make Russia to support Kurds with weapons to disband Turkey in many parts.
this is if they go to war each other. So definitively it will be totally crazy if Erdogan goes and provoke Russia again into a war. there will be no more warnings or restrain. but retaliation. and Putin told it.

So you see.. this is how i see it..

-If Erdogan Push too much and start a full scale war against Syria army,will be forced
to retreat to its border.  (end result NATO leaves Syria)

-If turkey just focus in Northern Aleppo and Idlib and Raqqa and hold it.. it will not provoke Russia into a war, but eventually over long time ,they will need to leave anyway. Because they will be an occupation force and the Syrian army will recover all its territory from Aleppo positions to damascus.

So my take in all this , this will only become a very long war of a decade if not two.
and if China joins. It will become another Korea. nightmare for NATO.. where they eventually
have to retreat to their original positions away of Syria. Since NATO will need to deal with
Russia,Syria,IRAQ,IRAN,Hezbolah.. So it will not be an easy fight. I dont think Turkey have a chance to annex Northern Syria.. And it will find itself in a fight with all its neighbors if Goes to war against Russia.  Turkey will be fighting Russia,IRAQ,IRAN,Armenia,Syria and with americans limited support. Because they more than anyone will not risk a direct fight with Russia. Simply because the risk of the fight to go nuclear.

Russia options are..
- to play the cease of fire card and delay the conflict..wait for trump elections .
-to play the game with Turkey and they have been doing with Americans and coordinate their zones in northen Syria "to fight ISIS".
-To get China involved too.. <--- This will completely be a game changer and ruins NATO
dreams for a quick victory ,and instead get another Korean war. where NATO got zero,nothing after they invaded North korea. had to retreat completely from it .which was a total waste of human lives and money and resources.

Overall ,Erdogan i dont think will go full retard and provoke a war with Russia ,by fighting Syrian army and trying to kick them from Aleppo or LAtakia, instead he will only go , half retard and try to take northen zones of Syria ,where Syria army today dont control it anyway.

So my believe is ,it will be a very long war ,and if either Trump elected or China choose to finally stop being Chicken and help Russia ,it will reverse very fast any NATO again in Syria.
in summary ,the best cards ,have not yet been used by Russia. While Americans and Turkey are
virtually already maxed out . They can create another front in Jordan ,but will have to fight Russia there ,wich Jordan will not agree. or Israel can invade south Syria ,which will provoke Hezbolah to bomb Israel. Syria and Russia and IRAN will not go down easily with just a small Turkey invasion. My bet is they are going to win .but that Syria will need to negotiate with Kurds some lands in the north.

So my prediction is the war is far from over ,and people should just relax ,because wars do not end when a territory is taken.since territorial gains one day can be reversed another. wars only end when the last bullet is fired and people stop fighting. Eventually Turkey will have to leave ,
Because they will be unable to either win in Syria ,going in a full scale war with Russia. and neither will win with a slow war ,with an occupation of northen Syria. They very likely will end fighting Kurds at both sides of the border. and in an endless war.

Russia is in Syria only for one thing: to prolong the war and bleed Syria dry. Russia can end the war in weeks if it wants to, by supplying counter battery radars which would enable SAA to locate and wipe out terrorists artillery. Russia is in Syria on Israel's request. Russia is nothing but a slave of Israel.

Turkey wanted and want Assad out, but they have also to face around 32 millions of Kurds with foreign support and supplies. Not as easy.

Turkey can not attack directly Syrian forces in Syrian territory because it would have a formal answer from Russia and Iran.

It's ridiculous SAA are wearing steel helmets. Russia refuses to supply anything to SAA. Go home, you dogs of Israel, you are not welcome in Syria.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-prepares-new-assault-strategic-aleppo-district/

Vann7 wrote:Interesting comment from SOuth Front.. from an User..

by @Pave Way IV
This was an ISIS rescue operation - Turkey and the U.S. didn't want good anti-Assad head-choppers to go to waste. Where are the ISIS prisoners? Where are the ISIS bodies? Nobody has a cellphone for pictures in Jarablus?? There were fewer FSA troops invading Jarablus than there were SDF at Manbij. Jarablus should have taken weeks and the entire town would have been flattened by the time it was liberated. The whole idea of any kind of invasion to kick out ISIS is absolutely preposterous.

There were maybe a couple of thousand ISIS fighters in Jarablus yet absolutely no battle (except for fake ones claimed by Turkey/US). Some random shelling that hit nobody; no destroyed vehicles; no destroyed buildings. No mass exodus or giant convoys of head-choppers either during or before the invasion - to al Bab or anywhere else. That is all a western MSM lie to cover up the fact that all the ISIS fighters were recycled into al Nusra. There were probably celebrations in the streets as ISIS head-choppers welcomed their Turkish head-chopper brothers during the 'invasion'.

In other words, some shady deal by everyone concerned that sent a few hundred al Nusra and child-beheading al-Zenki into Jarablus to hand out official Moderate Head-Chopper Army ID cards to the quite alive and well ISIS head-choppers. Turkey 'liberated' Jarablus by recruiting all the ISIS head-choppers to Turkish-friendly al Nusra and al-Zenki. Great way to fight your war on ISIS, Turkey: just rebrand the former ISIS terrorists and send them back to Aleppo.

Let that be a lesson to the Kurds: the hundreds of YPG cannon-fodder that died to 'liberate' Manbij died for Turkey. Most of the head-choppers escaped to Jarablus, and now they're changing uniforms and will be back to kill Kurds tomorrow and claim more Syrian land for Turkey. The U.S. Special Forces/CIA backstabbers are ready to betray you the same way in Raqqa (but only after a few thousand Kurds die to retake the city). You were better off with the devil you knew.

The situation in Syria from my point of view is like this.. the zones the Syrian army dont control in Northern Syria are the ones at risk. This is Idlib,ALbab,And Kurdish zones. The kurdish zones were lost anyway for a very long time.

The thing now people need to be a ware is this..

- The operation of TUrkey inside of Syria could become their vietnam. And it will cost
 a lot of money for them to have so many tanks there ,soldiers and combat planes.. securing their zones.

-Kurds dreams for a kurdistan are over.. as long Turkey is in northen Syrian.
So effectively Kurds focus of attention (if they have any brains left) will not be Syria ,but
instead the Turkey Army.

-Just like when Turkey shot down the Russian plane..If they do it again in Syria ,it will be
a casus belli for war and all their armies will be bombed to hell in northern Syria. This means
that Turkey if become too greedy and go beyond northen Syria ,it will end again losing trade relations with Russia , losing the Tourism from Russia something that really hurt Turkey economy and will be losing the pipeline that is also Good for Turkey and will be losing the nuclear reactor another important thing for Erdogan. So Erdogan preferences it is my opinion.
will be to stay with northern Syria in the parts ISIS and ALqaeda control and not fight the Syrian army directly, because if they do that, that will pull RUssia into their help.. and will threaten any gain by Turkey in Syria.  If Turkey try to push Syrian Army away of Aleppo it will create a situation ,where they will risk Russia creating a no fly zone for them, which Russia can do..


-This means that Russia have red lines in Syria and Latakia and Aleppo are part of this.. This is
because for Syria to Survive as a nation is necessary they have access to the mediterranean sea
and not landlocked. and a vital supply route from Damascus is also necessary. So Russia will not allow Turkey to either take latakkia or Aleppo.. because that either threatens their base or the survibility of the Syrian state.

What all this means is that i only see in short or medium term , the only thing being threatened is northern Syria.that is the zones that terrorist controls already could be replaced by FSA with backup of Turkey army.

So Russia will not leave Syria without a fight. And Turkey will be bogged down in Syria ,will find itself in a vietnam like war , because Russia and IRAN will not leave. So Turkey will find itself in a very long long war ,that will eventually destroy Erdogan image in Ankara and force him to be kicked by its closes supporters when they start losing soldiers . Because Aleppo alone the fights will have to be done street by street ,apartment by apartment,it will be a stalingrad for NATO..and Russia ,Neither IRAN ,will not allow NATO ,Neither Turkey to bomb Syrian army positions
in Aleppo   endlessly without a retaliation.  If they do it , they risk a full scale war with Russia..and Russia will not leave without a fight.  If Russia leave Syria ,and abandomn the Syrian army ,that only will destroy Putin popularity and United Russia party too. and it will place at risk Russia future if the wrong people ,ie.. the liberals takes control of Russia.

So far , Turkey-NATO is on the move now , but it will not be easy for them to over Run Syria any more than it was in 2011-2015.  On another alarming note.. Turkey is using chemical weapons..

And this could be a major issue for Syrian Army. But again i dont think Russia will abandon Syria.. People already have world  examples of what happens when a nation invades a country and do not have the support of its population. You have vietnam example and IRAQ example.
In both United States stood there for a decade..won all battles ,or most of them..and still have to leave. So ERdogan is become to greedy as try to over run all syria will completely find it cannot do it with Russia supplying weapons to Syrian army and Russian airforce support. It will have to bomb Russian military base in Syria and that will be war. So eventually Turkey will have to retreat to its own border. Then Russia have its nuclear option ,to use tactical nukes against Turkey army fighting Syrian army in Syria ,to make sure NATO understand Syria will not be over run.  


Seph have done good question.. but have ignored others..

-What will happen If Turkey push too much and provoke a war with Russia?
-What will Turkey do.. if in the war against Russia , Russia start bombing Ankara? and Turkey
military bases? Dont forget Turkey rear flank is exposed big time. All Turkey navy can be sent to the button of the sea. in the black sea.. and then will force Erdogan By FORCE to capitulate
in Syria and retreat.

So it will not be an easy war for NATO.. not remotely. If Erdogan calculate wrong ,and
push a war against Russia. It will be game over for him. because even though Russia do not
have the desire or the economy to invade Turkey and neither will do that , Russia however
can cause a LOT of Damage to Turkey economy , A LOT of damage to Turkey military from the black sea. Russia can force Turkey to peace , using lethal force. and they will do it.

This is because Erdogan ,contrary to what i though. Do cares about Turkey interest. And i will say for Erdogan Turkey is first and Islam is second. So he will not like to see Turkey destroyed
just for a piece of land in Northen Syria.. it will not be worth of it. And if a major full scale war is done.. from Turkey against Russia.. Russia have plenty of power, plenty of force to force Erdogan capitulate in Syria. And erdogan knows NATO will not comes to his help will be alone in a war with Russia. So this is what makes me believe , Erdogan unless goes full retard ,will avoid
a direct fight with Syrian ARmy and Russia. Because that will risk the entire operation totally.
And will only make Russia to support Kurds with weapons to disband Turkey in many parts.
this is if they go to war each other. So definitively it will be totally crazy if Erdogan goes and provoke Russia again into a war. there will be no more warnings or restrain. but retaliation. and Putin told it.

So you see.. this is how i see it..

-If Erdogan Push too much and start a full scale war against Syria army,will be forced
to retreat to its border.  (end result NATO leaves Syria)

-If turkey just focus in Northern Aleppo and Idlib and Raqqa and hold it.. it will not provoke Russia into a war, but eventually over long time ,they will need to leave anyway. Because they will be an occupation force and the Syrian army will recover all its territory from Aleppo positions to damascus.

So my take in all this , this will only become a very long war of a decade if not two.
and if China joins. It will become another Korea. nightmare for NATO.. where they eventually
have to retreat to their original positions away of Syria. Since NATO will need to deal with
Russia,Syria,IRAQ,IRAN,Hezbolah.. So it will not be an easy fight. I dont think Turkey have a chance to annex Northern Syria.. And it will find itself in a fight with all its neighbors if Goes to war against Russia.  Turkey will be fighting Russia,IRAQ,IRAN,Armenia,Syria and with americans limited support. Because they more than anyone will not risk a direct fight with Russia. Simply because the risk of the fight to go nuclear.

Russia options are..
- to play the cease of fire card and delay the conflict..wait for trump elections .
-to play the game with Turkey and they have been doing with Americans and coordinate their zones in northen Syria "to fight ISIS".
-To get China involved too.. <--- This will completely be a game changer and ruins NATO
dreams for a quick victory ,and instead get another Korean war. where NATO got zero,nothing after they invaded North korea. had to retreat completely from it .which was a total waste of human lives and money and resources.

Overall ,Erdogan i dont think will go full retard and provoke a war with Russia ,by fighting Syrian army and trying to kick them from Aleppo or LAtakia, instead he will only go , half retard and try to take northen zones of Syria ,where Syria army today dont control it anyway.

So my believe is ,it will be a very long war ,and if either Trump elected or China choose to finally stop being Chicken and help Russia ,it will reverse very fast any NATO again in Syria.
in summary ,the best cards ,have not yet been used by Russia. While Americans and Turkey are
virtually already maxed out . They can create another front in Jordan ,but will have to fight Russia there ,wich Jordan will not agree. or Israel can invade south Syria ,which will provoke Hezbolah to bomb Israel. Syria and Russia and IRAN will not go down easily with just a small Turkey invasion. My bet is they are going to win .but that Syria will need to negotiate with Kurds some lands in the north.

So my prediction is the war is far from over ,and people should just relax ,because wars do not end when a territory is taken.since territorial gains one day can be reversed another. wars only end when the last bullet is fired and people stop fighting. Eventually Turkey will have to leave ,
Because they will be unable to either win in Syria ,going in a full scale war with Russia. and neither will win with a slow war ,with an occupation of northen Syria. They very likely will end fighting Kurds at both sides of the border. and in an endless war.

We all talk about russians, turkeys, Natos role in this war, but Im missing one big player, if not the biggest one, in this talks, Iran.
Turkey never could act in northern syria without Irans approval.
What will happen when Turkey will cross the red lines, what will Iran do.

Update of Kerry/Lavrov meeting. Basically small moves forward but no real change. Both confirm no Kurdistan.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/08/russia-and-us-fail-to-agree-on-syria.html

Everything Turkey did until now with Syria has been without the support of Iran.

The people still seems to realize not about the whole ecuation in the area Iraq-Syria-Turkey war. They are three wars, but in fact is only one war:

Lebanon Shiis+Syria gov+Kurds+Iraq shiis+Iran+Russia

vs

Turkey+ISIS+Syrian US backed grups+Arab monarchies+US+NATO (with most of the NATO countries wishing to retire)

There are evidences of the support to the Kurds. They have been supported by the US since the invasion of Iraq, but the Kurds only begin to succeed in Iraq and Syria, and only begin to be able to fight the Turks in Turkey when Iran has been involved against the ISIS in Iraq. And the Kurds know it. Also, it is obvious where come the supplies to the Western pocket of the Kurds in Syria. Their supplies only can com from the territory controled by the Syrian government.

Even, despite the Turk invasion, the Kurds in the area have been advancing in the South part of their territory to the West of the Euphrates, and the alone goal of it is to find a contact between their territory and the territory of the Syrian government, to allow supplies from the East (Iraq and Iran), and tu cut the supply lines of the islamists from the north (Turkey).

The kurds are an important factor in the first coalition. They are just the game changer factor in the area, they are poor, the have not military power by their own, but they are 32 millions of people in the area (as many as the entire population of Saudi Arabia, and about a half of the non Kurd population of Turkey) and their are ready to fight for their freedom. The entry of Turkey in the Syrian scenario only will lead to a reinforcement of the Kurds by their allies, and to the US withdrawn of their support to the Kurds.

Iran specially is interested in the success of the Kurds outside Iran, because it means good relations with the Kurds in Iran, and because it means the frontline of this war moving appart of their borders. If you take this into account, you will see how the frontilne of this overall conflict today only reachs the borders of Iran in some parts of Turkey, when years ago they had hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers in their borders, both with Iraq and with Turkey. Iran will help the Kurds in these countries like they are helping to the Iraq shiis. When the Kurds of Iraq reached their territorial goals, Iran will continue supporting the territorial goals of the Kurds in Turkey, and will help to the Kurds in Syria to advance until to have a land link between the territory controled by Syrian government and friendly areas of the East.

Everyone in this coalition have something to win:

- Russia wins friendly governments in the area and to reduce the inestability in the Caucasus thanks to the weaknes of Turkey, and as consequence of Georgia.
- Iran wins friendly governments in the area, including the Kurds, and wins to move the frontline away of its borders.
- Iraqi shiis win the territory of the Iraqi sunnies (ISIS).
- Kurds win control of an important part of their territory, and maybe the independence.
- Syria avoids a certain defeat, and in the long term the control of their territory (except maybe some Kurd land).
- Lebanon shiis win to be not isolated, and future attacks by radical sunnies in their own territory.

The most favourable situation for this coalition is in Iraq, where the Iraq shiis have been able to close the borders with Saudi Arabia, which means all the help to the Syrian sunni opposition, including ISIS must come from Jordan an small and low populated country. Syria will be more difficult and Turkey more difficult still. This war is for long time.

We all talk about russians, turkeys, Natos role in this war, but Im missing one big player, if not the biggest one, in  this talks, Iran.
Turkey never could act in northern syria without Irans approval.
What will happen when Turkey will cross the red lines, what will Iran do.

Given their little flip-flop tantrum over Russia using their airbase we can safely say that Iran won't be doing anything.

Apparently F-22s flew circles around around SU-24s and possible SU-3Xs and they weren't even aware of it, looks like all that anti-stealth talk was just talk.

‘No idea for three loops:’ US pilots recount how they ‘shadowed’ Syrian aircraft

American pilots that recently intercepted Syrian warplanes over the country’s northeast say the government jets had no idea they were being shadowed, while admitting that they could have easily shot down the planes if ordered to do so.

The US pilots involved described the situation for USA Today. On August 19, the Pentagon said that it had scrambled two F-22s after Syrian SU-24 jets reportedly conducted a bombing raid close to the positions of Kurdish forces and American advisers near the Syrian town of Hasakah.
https://www.rt.com/usa/357402-pilots-shadow-syria-jets/

AlfaT8 wrote:Apparently F-22s flew circles around around SU-24s and possible SU-3Xs and they weren't even aware of it, looks like all that anti-stealth talk was just talk.

.............................

Also possible UFO and Godzilla sighting.

There is no mention of anything other than Su-24 in that article. Getting a bit creative or just bored?

eehnie wrote:Everything Turkey did until now with Syria has been without the support of Iran.

The people still seems to realize not about the whole ecuation in the area Iraq-Syria-Turkey war. They are three wars, but in fact is only one war:

Lebanon Shiis+Syria gov+Kurds+Iraq shiis+Iran+Russia

vs

Turkey+ISIS+Syrian US backed grups+Arab monarchies+US+NATO (with most of the NATO countries wishing to retire)

There are evidences of the support to the Kurds. They have been supported by the US since the invasion of Iraq, but the Kurds only begin to succeed in Iraq and Syria, and only begin to be able to fight the Turks in Turkey when Iran has been involved against the ISIS in Iraq. And the Kurds know it. Also, it is obvious where come the supplies to the Western pocket of the Kurds in Syria. Their supplies only can com from the territory controled by the Syrian government.

Even, despite the Turk invasion, the Kurds in the area have been advancing in the South part of their territory to the West of the Euphrates, and the alone goal of it is to find a contact between their territory and the territory of the Syrian government, to allow supplies from the East (Iraq and Iran), and tu cut the supply lines of the islamists from the north (Turkey).

The kurds are an important factor in the first coalition. They are just the game changer factor in the area, they are poor, the have not military power by their own, but they are 32 millions of people in the area (as many as the entire population of Saudi Arabia, and about a half of the non Kurd population of Turkey) and their are ready to fight for their freedom. The entry of Turkey in the Syrian scenario only will lead to a reinforcement of the Kurds by their allies, and to the US withdrawn of their support to the Kurds.

Iran specially is interested in the success of the Kurds outside Iran, because it means good relations with the Kurds in Iran, and because it means the frontline of this war moving appart of their borders. If you take this into account, you will see how the frontilne of this overall conflict today only reachs the borders of Iran in some parts of Turkey, when years ago they had hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers in their borders, both with Iraq and with Turkey. Iran will help the Kurds in these countries like they are helping to the Iraq shiis. When the Kurds of Iraq reached their territorial goals, Iran will continue supporting the territorial goals of the Kurds in Turkey, and will help to the Kurds in Syria to advance until to have a land link between the territory controled by Syrian government and friendly areas of the East.

Everyone in this coalition have something to win:

- Russia wins friendly governments in the area and to reduce the inestability in the Caucasus thanks to the weaknes of Turkey, and as consequence of Georgia.
- Iran wins friendly governments in the area, including the Kurds, and wins to move the frontline away of its borders.
- Iraqi shiis win the territory of the Iraqi sunnies (ISIS).
- Kurds win control of an important part of their territory, and maybe the independence.
- Syria avoids a certain defeat, and in the long term the control of their territory (except maybe some Kurd land).
- Lebanon shiis win to be not isolated, and future attacks by radical sunnies in their own territory.

The most favourable situation for this coalition is in Iraq, where the Iraq shiis have been able to close the borders with Saudi Arabia, which means all the help to the Syrian sunni opposition, including ISIS must come from Jordan an small and low populated country. Syria will be more difficult and Turkey more difficult still. This war is for long time.

Whilst agreeing with most of what you say you have left out two things that I think are crucial.

The first is what does the Iraqi military do once they have secured the Syrian border? Go and help their buddies the SAA?

Second, you fail to mention the country that arguably has the most powerful/effective military in the area along with by far the biggest and multiple interests in keeping Syria divided and weak and Hezbollah without a land supply route to Iran, Israel. So far they seem to have their activities well below the radar, apart from the occasional air strike which are hard to hide. What do they do if it looks like Assad's Government looks like securing as a minimum the populous west and the south past Jordan to Iraq? Sit back and just watch a nightmare unfold?

PapaDragon wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:Apparently F-22s flew circles around around SU-24s and possible SU-3Xs and they weren't even aware of it, looks like all that anti-stealth talk was just talk.

.............................

Also possible UFO and Godzilla sighting.

There is no mention of anything other than Su-24 in that article. Getting a bit creative or just bored?

Its a US comment so don't forget Bigfoot.

We know the Su-24 in RuAF hands is vulnerable so presumably a same spec plane in SyAF will also be, hence the Su-30/35 escorts. It didn't need an F-22 just a F-16 to down one. By the sound of it those SyAF Su-24s didn't have an escort.

Sometimes some Americans can be a bit full of themselves. If this invisibly (from the S-400 and other radars as well?) were indeed true it would surely be highly classified by the USAF?

Don't forget, it was over Hasakah in north east Syria, which is out of the range of S-400 in Hmeimim and also out of the range of Syrian radar positions in western part of Syria.

JohninMK wrote:Update of Kerry/Lavrov meeting. Basically small moves forward but no real change. Both confirm no Kurdistan.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/08/russia-and-us-fail-to-agree-on-syria.html

Russians and Americans are all Israel's dogs to continue spilling the blood of Syrians. Don't think we are stupid. We know exactly what you are and what you are doing in Syria.