Iraqi Kurdistan Independence: Drivers and Regional Implications

ali.a.r wrote:

Is the white line the 'border' of Iraqi Kurdistan? If so, and the Iraqi forces DO push upto it,

1) Does that mean that the KRG has a border with Syria i.e. the SDF?

2) Does Iraq share a border with Turkey, which is pretty important for trade that bypasses the KRG?

I'm asking because I can't quite make out much from that tiny sliver of land, that forms a triangle between the Syrian, Turkish and Iraqi border.

White line is the border of KRG according to Constitution of Iraq.

1) KRG have borders with SDF/YPG since 2014-2015.

2) There is no border gate between the Iraqi government and Turkey but Iraq Army&PMU can be rush to Ibrahim Khalil border crossing point.

Airman wrote:

ali.a.r wrote:

Is the white line the 'border' of Iraqi Kurdistan? If so, and the Iraqi forces DO push upto it,

1) Does that mean that the KRG has a border with Syria i.e. the SDF?

2) Does Iraq share a border with Turkey, which is pretty important for trade that bypasses the KRG?

I'm asking because I can't quite make out much from that tiny sliver of land, that forms a triangle between the Syrian, Turkish and Iraqi border.

White line is the border of KRG according to Constitution of Iraq.

1) KRG have borders with SDF/YPG since 2014-2015.

2) There is no border gate between the Iraqi government and Turkey but Iraq Army&PMU can be rush to Ibrahim Khalil border crossing point.

Thanks.

So if the Iraqis did push right upto to the border, would there be a land connection between KRG and SDF? Also is the KRG border upto the Mosul dam area, the Tigris river?

ali.a.r wrote:
Thanks.

So if the Iraqis did push right upto to the border, would there be a land connection between KRG and SDF? Also is the KRG border upto the Mosul dam area, the Tigris river?

İf Iraq Army&PMU forces capture the border crossing point, There will be no land connection between KRG and SDF. Mosul dam area is under control of the KRG right now but Iraq Army&PMU forces are going to capture Mosul Dam area from KRG.

the triangle point is called "fishkhabour" and that's a primary objective of Iraq now.

Mosul dam is now in Iraqi hands. As is Rabia crossing and Sinjar.
Deir Matti is also now in Iraqi control.

Fishkhabour (the "triangle" point between Iraq -Syria - turkey) along the tigris is not. Iraq is seeking to take control of both banks as well as border point in order to deny Kurds and SDF / Syria access to the Tigris River).

7 years ago Kuwait "sponsored" Assad in an attempt to divert water from the 30km of Tigris river bank that the Syrians had (the west bank of the tigris from fishkhabour to Cizre). That's a primary goal for Iraq as it will protect about 60% of Iraq's surface water supply. And Iraq's perfectly willing to go to war for it with either KRG or YPG or Syrian Government. It is an existential threat for Iraq.

Now the Kurds oil flow, hence revenue direct to them (sorry their leaders pockets) is seriously reduced the financial chickens are about to come home to roost. Baghdad is going to love this phase. This is from FortRus

The Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi said on Thursday that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the ruling regime of the autonomous Iraqi province of Kurdistan, is nearing its bankruptcy due to the prevalence of corruption among the officials and their families.

He called on KRG to recognize the authority of the central government in Baghdad and act in accordance with Iraqi Constitution.

In his statement, Al Abadi said Iraq should be able to demonstrate its ability of resolving its internal disputes in a civilized and democratic manner, namely as regards the issue of secession of the autonomous Iraqi province of Kurdistan.

He also urged KRG to engage in a dialogue with the central government in Baghdad.

Then Al Abadi really tightened the political screw.


The Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi announced that his govenrment will take on paying Kurdish employees and the Peshmerga salaries due to Kurdistan Regional Government’s failure to do so.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has had between 600-900k/barrels per day in oil sales but no transparency on funds.

It is noteworthy that residents of the autonomous Iraqi province of Kurdistan have rarely been paid by the KRG.

Earlier today, Al Abadi said that the KRG is nearing its bankruptcy due to the prevalence of corruption among the officials and their families.

With the Iraqi Forces assuming control of oil fields, the Iraqi government is ensuring Kurdistan employees to get their salaries on time.

Apparently the Iraqi forces have begun a move towards Erbil...heavy fighting reported...the Kurds claim they've destroyed 18 humvees + other stuff

So, Bibi is upset he wont be getting oil at bargain basement prices anymore...

Netanyahu very upset with Iraqi forces capturing Kirkuk, takes action to reclaim oil
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/__trashed-3/

Under the control of pro-Barzani forces, the Kirkuk oil fields provided Israel with 77 percent (2015 estimate according to the Financial Times) of its imported oil needs at rock-bottom prices.

The Israeli head of state is currently lobbying world powers to take action against Haider Al-Abadi’s government and turn back the gains of Iraqi forces.

Whilst it is highly unlikely that Baghdad will cease sending oil to Israel, the price for its purchase will undoubtedly go up to levels that Israel is traditionally uncomfortable with.

Kurds destroyed the Iraqi tank M1A1M Abrams from the anti-tank missile system MILAN

The formation of the Kurdish Peshmerga, which began operations against Iraqi central government troops entering the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan, announced the destruction on October 20, 2017 in the vicinity of the Prde settlement (Altun Kupri) south of Erbil, two Iraqi tanks (one M1A1M Abrams and one T- 72), one armored personnel carrier and "more than 12" HMMWV vehicles. All this equipment belonged to the pro-government detachments of the Shi'ite militia Al-Hasd al-Sha'bi who attempted to seize Prd, who, according to the Kurdish statements, lost at the same time allegedly up to 150 people killed and wounded.

According to Kurdish and Iraqi sources, the M1A1M Abrams tank was destroyed by the Kurds using the MILAN anti-tank missile system.

Video of the M1A1M Abrams tank of Iraqi forces destroyed in the area of ​​Prde, presumably using MILAN ATGM:


Recall that the portable ATGM MBDA MILAN was transferred to the Kurdish "Peshmerga" by the German government from the presence of the armed forces of the FRG for the purposes of "combating the Islamic State." The first consignment of the MILAN ATGM, transferred by the German side, consisting of 30 launchers and 500 guided missiles, was delivered to Iraqi Kurdistan in September 2014. In 2015, 30 more launchers and 213 missiles were delivered, and in 2016 - more than 300 missiles (Kurds were supplied with MILAN-2 missiles).

On October 21, 2017, some Kurdish officials, however, began hastily refuting the use of the MILAN ATGMs by the Kurdish forces in the battles for the Prde.

Another video of the same destroyed M1A1M tank:




https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2906639.html

Cyberspec wrote:
Under the control of pro-Barzani forces, the Kirkuk oil fields provided Israel with 77 percent (2015 estimate according to the Financial Times) of its imported oil needs at rock-bottom prices.

That's incredible. How was it exported to Israel? This is a bit fishy; sounds like propaganda intended to turn more arabs against the Kurds.

The Israeli head of state is currently lobbying world powers to take action against Haider Al-Abadi’s government and turn back the gains of Iraqi forces.

Fat chance that'll happen.

Whilst it is highly unlikely that Baghdad will cease sending oil to Israel

Why? Even if the 77% claim were true, doesn't Iran have enough influence to stop it?

starman wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:
Under the control of pro-Barzani forces, the Kirkuk oil fields provided Israel with 77 percent (2015 estimate according to the Financial Times) of its imported oil needs at rock-bottom prices.

That's incredible. How was it exported to Israel? This is a bit fishy; sounds like propaganda intended to turn more arabs against the Kurds.

Through intermediaries I guess

Why? Even if the 77% claim were true, doesn't Iran have enough influence to stop it?

IMO, if they did that, the US would pressure them....

the plot thickens..

Israel Asks For Air Corridor To Provide Assistance To Iraqi Kurdistan In Its Standoff Against Federal Government – Reports
https://southfront.org/israel-asks-for-air-corridor-to-provide-assistance-to-iraqi-kurdistan-in-its-standoff-against-federal-government-reports/

Kurds gather in front of Russian consulate, ask for support in wake of US inaction



http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/3a3494fe-1524-4d39-9b9f-b3ffb150fa99

Cyberspec wrote:
Through intermediaries I guess

Maybe Kirkuk oil was sent to Turkey via pipeline and then sent by tanker to Israel. Possible but why wasn't this publicized before? And 77% of Israel's oil needs, just from Kirkuk??!! How did they manage before it (allegedly) became available?

IMO, if they did that, the US would pressure them....

There are limits to what US pressure can do. If they sold oil to Israel, it could cause a lot of domestic opposition.

Israel Asks For Air Corridor To Provide Assistance To Iraqi Kurdistan In Its Standoff Against Federal Government

For many years, Israel has been sympathetic to the Kurds. But it's stupid to try to establish an air corridor, and have Israeli jets landing to bring supplies. It would make the Kurds look just great in the eyes of people all around them. In fact I suspect that's the intent of these reports. They could've been leaked by Abadi or Tehran to increase support for actions against the Kurds.

The Iraqi shia people looking like Turkey, looking like ISIS, looking like Israel in Palestine. They did the same before to the Kurds, to the Palestinians in the case of Israel, and in the case of the sunni Arabs they also did the same to the shia people of Iraq.

The ambitions of the Iraqi shia gouvernment about territories where the shia population maybe a 1-2% and is not Arab but Azeri (called Turkmen) is only understandable from a point of ambition and love to the oil money.

A shame for Iraq. And a failed strategy. A non-sense.

Iraq is choosing to become a 55-60% shia country, with a unified sunni oppositon of Arab and Kurds that will fight to the majority in a perpetual war. Still the Kurds answered not to the invasion, but if there is not alternative for them, they will fight like they have been fighting in Turkey, becoming enemies of the Iraqi shia people. A bad choice.

The right alternative for the shia people of Iraq would be to become a 80% shia country, with lots of oil by its own, keeping almost all its shia population, with a smaller Arab sunni minority and a minimal shia Kurd population. A new Iraq friend of an independent Kurdistan, and looking to help to other shia Arab countries that are emerging in the area (Syria and Lebanon).

Iraq seems to be plagued of mediocre and oil money lover people in its gouvernment. They do not deserve support.

eehnie wrote:
The right alternative for the shia people of Iraq would be to become a 80% shia country, with lots of oil by its own, keeping almost all its shia population, with a smaller Arab sunni minority and a minimal shia Kurd population. A new Iraq friend of an independent Kurdistan

The new Iraq won't let Kurdistan go. Iraq is composed of disparate groups that won't naturally unite, so if it is to remain unified inevitably one group will have to dominate the others. That worked under Saddam and it may work even better under the shia as they're the majority and backed by Iran. In the long run the present arrangement may be the most stable both internally and regionally.

Disgusting news with all the videos and pictures in plain sight

KURDISH PESHMERGA USE IRAQI FLAGS ON THEIR POSITION TO AMBUSH IRAQI UNIT, EXECUTING 2 OF THEM

http://al-sura.com/peshmerga-use-iraqi-flags-to-ambush-iraqi-unit-executing-2-of-them/

starman wrote:

eehnie wrote:
The right alternative for the shia people of Iraq would be to become a 80% shia country, with lots of oil by its own, keeping almost all its shia population, with a smaller Arab sunni minority and a minimal shia Kurd population. A new Iraq friend of an independent Kurdistan

The new Iraq won't let Kurdistan go. Iraq is composed of disparate groups that won't naturally unite, so if it is to remain unified inevitably one group will have to dominate the others. That worked under Saddam and it may work even better under the shia as they're the majority and backed by Iran. In the long run the present arrangement may be the most stable both internally and regionally.

In the Iraqi Kurdistan, for the shia Arab people, there is nothing to care of, except some oil money, of which the shia Arabs of Iraq have more than enough in the own territory. They share not territory, they share not population, is the sunni Arab minority who shares some territory and population with the Kurds. Giving freedom to the Kurdistan, Iraq would be free of the Kurd sunni population and of a part of the Arab sunni population, helping to keep the hostility between both communities and helping to keep a friendship with the Iraqi sunni Kurds that was key to defeat the sunni Arabs (ISIS) in Iraq.

Instead, between the countries with shia Arab gouvernments, almost a half of the Lebanese population is shia Arab, an important minority of the Syrian population is shia Arab, and there is the situation of Yemen where again almost a half of the population is shia Arab. Between the rest, a majority of the Bahraini population is shia Arab and about a 40% of the Kuwaiti population is also shia Arab.

The current Iraqi gouvernment seems to care more about oil money in the Kurdish territory, than about the rest of shia Arab populations suffering wars today. A shame for the new Iraq. They are showing to be not different of the Turks, of ISIS or of Israel (with Palestine and Syria).

The choice of Iraq of oil money from a territory without shia Arabs, leads to a sunni unification in Iraq, against Iraq and against Iran, leads to a war with more than a 40% of the population of the country in the current configuration. Making Iraq stagnating in war and keepoing the war in the borders of Iran. Very poor strategic choice.

The choice of Iraq of oil money from a territory without shia Arabs makes the country unable to help to Syria, unable to help to Yemen, and unable to help the dominated shia populations in countries like Bahrain, Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. Instead of thinking about new pipelines to the coastal shia Arab areas of Syria and Lebanon they are fighting to keep the pipelines to Turkey, giving them a power of the Iraqi and Kurd oil and a wealth that they do not deserve. A shame for the mediocre Iraqi rulers.

eehnie wrote:
The choice of Iraq for oil money from a territory without shia Arabs, leads to a sunni unification in Iraq, against Iraq and against Iran, leads to a war with more than a 40% of the population of the country in the current configuration. Making Iraq stagnating in war and keepoing the war in the borders of Iran. Very poor strategic choice.

For Iraq to be unified, one group or another had to dominate the others. The new shiite domination may be best since shia are the majority; moreover it means peaceful relations with Iran. The sunnis and ISIS have just been crushed and Iraq's central government--even under minority sunni rule--has long proven itself capable of dealing with the kurds. I think Iraq is poised to revive as a viable state actor, perhaps stronger than before.

starman wrote:

eehnie wrote:
The choice of Iraq for oil money from a territory without shia Arabs, leads to a sunni unification in Iraq, against Iraq and against Iran, leads to a war with more than a 40% of the population of the country in the current configuration. Making Iraq stagnating in war and keepoing the war in the borders of Iran. Very poor strategic choice.

For Iraq to be unified, one group or another had to dominate the others. The new shiite domination may be best since shia are the majority; moreover it means peaceful relations with Iran. The sunnis and ISIS have just been crushed and Iraq's central government--even under minority sunni rule--has long proven itself capable of dealing with the kurds. I think Iraq is poised to revive as a viable state actor, perhaps stronger than before.

Are not you able to say more?

Do you really think the sunni Arab population of Iraq disappeared? If they can not sustain more the ISIS flag they will find other flag, but never will be the flag of a shia majority Iraq. Even it is easier they take sunni Kurd flags like they did in Syria.

If you think the shia Arabs of Iraq will be able to keep the country unified in its current configuration with about 80 US Abrams, you have 0 brain. Iraq has not the reserves of material that Syria had at the begin of the war. All this was destroyed by the US in the case of Iraq.

eehnie wrote:
If you think the shia Arabs of Iraq will be able to keep the country unified in its current configuration with about 80 US Abrams, you have 0 brain. Iraq has not the reserves of material that Syria had at the begin of the war. All this was destroyed by the US in the case of Iraq.

But the shia are the majority and have help from Iran. They have done a good job dealing with the Kurds. A lot has changed since 2014.

starman wrote:

eehnie wrote:
If you think the shia Arabs of Iraq will be able to keep the country unified in its current configuration with about 80 US Abrams, you have 0 brain. Iraq has not the reserves of material that Syria had at the begin of the war. All this was destroyed by the US in the case of Iraq.

But the shia are the majority and have help from Iran. They have done a good job dealing with the Kurds. A lot has changed since 2014.

This is not realistic.

eehnie wrote:
This is not realistic.

Time will tell. There does appear to be quite a contrast between the Iraqi army of 2014 and the one which just Kirkuk.

Barzani Stepping Down From Kurdistan Region Presidency
https://southfront.org/barzani-stepping-kurdistan-region-presidency/

His supporters have meanwhile stormed the regional parliament

https://southfront.org/intra-kurdish-violence-erupts-in-iraqi-kurdistan-as-its-president-resigns/

This wasn't how independence was supposed to turn out!

Look at those border crossings changing hands.