Bidoul wrote:France has more experience on intervention and foreign deployment than anyone else on the planet...
Yes, i remember your valuable experience - Dien Bien Phu....heh
Wow... Do you really want me to remind you of the great military successes of the Russian Army pre-Putin reforms?
Here let's have a read instead.
Even if you don't read french just browse it quick for pictures and the dates...
Then realize that's just Africa (no Lebanon, no Iraq, no Yugoslavia, no SE Asia), that it's nowhere near complete nor meant to (especially early on) and that it's only 1969 to 2004...
Indeed.. France have a big history of invasions for colonialism. But Syria is not africa.
and a moderate middle east power and since france wants to overthrow Assad and defeat the Syrian army will be need at least at least 3x times the power that Syria brings forward for an acceptable outcome. ie.. Syria have 30 x migs-29 (and about 100 very old migs but customized by RUssia to fire more modern missiles ,like Yakhont antiship missiles.) France will need 30x3 =90 Rafale jets to have an acceptable to french people outcome.Israel used hundreds of combat jets against Syria decades ago for example and lost many dozens of them. France only aircraft carrier will not stand a chance against a rain of Russian yakhonts missiles ,that Syria have x 80. Once the Aircraft carrier is sink ,the outrage of French people will do the rest and overtthrow Hollande and stop the war. Modern wars ,like the one France will have to play in Syria are not only about overwhelming enemy with superior forces and numbers. But also to win in an acceptable way without bankrupting the nation economy or annoying your citizens so much that they overthrow you .
So based on economy and political measures,since france wants to overthrow Assad. France alone do not have
the capability to deploy alone in Syria and defeat the Syrian army,Airforce and Airdefenses and army with anti armor weapons and more importantly Hold it in control for years
and do it in an acceptable way for france society.. Because it will be a vietnam for them. The US Invasion on IRAQ for example ,that IRAQ had a way inferior army than Syria today at that time cost 1 Trillion US dollars.
SO you will see first a revolution in france ,before they can do a military operation like US invasion on IRAQ or even Russia deployment of an airbase. Because losing a couple of dozens of combat planes in Syria and their pilots captured by Syrian army and arrested will no be cool
in the eyes of French people and not nice for Hollande image. and if their only aircraft carrier is sink by the x80 antiship missiles given by Russia to Syria..it will not be very happy incident for hollande and it will end in another french revolution
kicking from Power any pro NATO leader in that nation and the rise of leftist groups.
Africa is just manpads and ak-47 with rpg-7s and old useless manpads and nothing else.
With Syria you have an airforce and a navy and armed with lethal weapons against any navy
or Airforce. Syria have S-300s and upgraded mig-29 with modern avionics that could become
pretty similar in performance and the fights being decided more by pilot skills than hardware.
Such kind of wars for NATO countries,where their hardware is not overwhelming superior
and outcome is decided by tactics more than hardware is a no Go for any NATO power. Because this are offensive unprovoked wars ,against sovereign nations ,is not possible to lead
any ground offensive not by france ,not by USA without seriously provoking major unrest in the millions in their cities demanding to end the war.
So nato can only directly interfere when they have an overwhelming superiority and have a coalition too.. This is why in 4 years none of NATO was interested in invaded Syria or creating a no fly zone..and ONLY when ISIS began to take half of the territory of Syria and Russia was clear will do nothing is when talks began again of invading Syria.
Turkey is desperate to get NATO invade Syria ,because Erdogan the pig ,see his neck in troubles if Syria defeat isis and Alqaeda and recover all its territories. The legal consequences
that Turkey will have to pay internationally to Syria for support of terrorism will be abysmal.
IF ... if Syria survive , Sooner or later in the future erdogan and Turkey will need to pay reparations for the war in Syria for its crimes. It was the syrian government who recently told
when the war against terrorism ends.. there will be a new war.. an international Legal battle against the nations who sponsored ISIS and Alqaeda ,and helped in the destruction of Syria.All said..
the reasons for a world war 3 to happen exist. Erdogan in particular have every motive to want to destroy Syria ,because they know they will have to face either legal consequences for their crimes or face revenge with Syria and Russia supplying kurds with weapons to disband Turkey. The only power in the world that can stop a world war 3
is the European Union
the majority of it ,that is the major economy in the world and that Israel and Turkey and US depends more than anything. and cannot allow to break relations with them. Europe joining Russia alliance will avoid ww3 any attempt of Israel or Turkey or US to start a world war 3 and end their support of terrorist and more than anything end US proxy war against Russia in the entire world.