Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF)

Milkavkaz's view on the NAF or VSN;

http://www.milkavkaz.net/2016/07/vooruzhennye-sily-dnr-i-lnr-boevoj-i-chislennyj-sostav.html

Combat training Marines DPP

An interesting photo essay of the Russian Federal Agency News (FAN) of military training on the coast of the Azov Sea Marine Force (People's Militia) of the Donetsk People's Republic - 9th individual Mariupol-Khingansky special (assault) Marine Regiment (dislocation in Novoazovsk). The regiment was formed in February 2016 by renaming the 9th separate motorized rifle regiment of the DPP forces.











http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2082023.html

Formation name change. In Lugansk the 2nd Guards Motorised Brigade has been given title Hero of the Soviet Union Kliment Efromovich Voroshilov so likely it will now be known simply as Voroshilov brigade. In Soviet times Lugansk was Voroshilovgrad in his honor as he was a native. btw, Donetsk was Stalino back in the days, but I don't think we will see any "Stalin brigade", well, not yet..... http://www.novorosinform.org/news/60081

Major-General Alexander Serkeevich Nemogai, commander of "Kalmius" brigade and Hero of DNR, has died of a stroke.

T-72's in use with the "Diesel" separate Tank BTG of the Donetsk Militia;

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2141978.html

Compilation video of previously unreleased material of various VSN formations exercising on territory of DNR.

New commander of "Sparta" will be "Vokha", who had been Motorola's deputy.

Khepesh wrote:Compilation video of previously unreleased material of various VSN formations exercising on territory of DNR.

Just a few seconds (+their track record) and it shows how Eastern bloc kit if used by a competent force can do wonders, even without an ''air force'', ''air support'', etc. SAA needs to take notes, or seems to have done recently.

New markings

The organizational structure of the armed forces of the DPR and LPR





http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2367840.html

Prizrak international unit is disbanded

https://dninews.com/article/prizrak-interunit-suspends-military-activities-donbass

It's bullshit that the war is winding down. From previous reports, it seems to me that the militias are being "militarized" and put under Russian command. No place for foreign volunteers.

This is a step towards full scale military operations.

Ispan wrote:Prizrak international unit is disbanded

https://dninews.com/article/prizrak-interunit-suspends-military-activities-donbass

It's bullshit that the war is winding down. From previous reports, it seems to me that the militias are being "militarized" and put under Russian command. No place for foreign volunteers.

This is a step towards full scale military operations.

Only logical step. DNR and LNR are becoming full independent states with regular state armies. They are not failed states like Somalia or Libya, so there is no place for different "private" militias. Novorussian army is actually more professional regular state army than Ukrainian army.

I have no doubt, that Novorussian army (Novorussia is frozen because of Minsk agreement) is ready for full scale military operation and is waiting it. Only thing is, that Novorussia want, that Ukropistan start the war. On the other side Ukropitecs army is very afraid of Novorussian army and I doubt they will dare to start full war.

medo wrote:

Ispan wrote:Prizrak international unit is disbanded

https://dninews.com/article/prizrak-interunit-suspends-military-activities-donbass

It's bullshit that the war is winding down. From previous reports, it seems to me that the militias are being "militarized" and put under Russian command. No place for foreign volunteers.

This is a step towards full scale military operations.

Only logical step. DNR and LNR are becoming full independent states with regular state armies. They are not failed states like Somalia or Libya, so there is no place for different "private" militias. Novorussian army is actually more professional regular state army than Ukrainian army.

I have no doubt, that Novorussian army (Novorussia is frozen because of Minsk agreement) is ready for full scale military operation and is waiting it. Only thing is, that Novorussia want, that Ukropistan start the war. On the other side Ukropitecs army is very afraid of Novorussian army and I doubt they will dare to start full war.

Very well said, if DNR and LNR, want to become full independent states and if they want to be taken seriously, than they need a regular armed forces and not militias.

A week ago I was surprised to see a photo of an Ukrainian combatant with a customized AKM, but I took it to be supplied by the US.

This photo was posted at Chervonets, militia from the LNR



Front row left, that's not even an AKM, it's an old AK-47

The guy in the middle carries another 47 with a BG grenade launcher attached.

Assuming this photo is recent and from this winter, and not from 2014-2015 Very surprised that these old arms would appear now, as the mix of calibers is bad from the logistics point of view and I think most people would prefer the newer AK-74 as the ammo is lighter and is more precise.

It's a bit worrisome to see these old weapons being used. It means that after 2 years of war, many rifles have been lost and there are no longer rifles for everybody. That applies to both sides, it does not make sense either for the Ukrops to use the old 7.62 mm Kalashnikov.

On the other side these people, by they varied ages and clothing, and counting two women, are most probably from a volunteer territorial battallion, the units that hold the line while regular army is kept in reserve. Another more encouraging interpretation is that there are not enough modern rifles for everybody because the army has grown, and militia units have to make do with what's available.

Ispan wrote:Front row left, that's not even an AKM, it's an old AK-47

"Old AK-47" - such thing does not exist, only about 100 rifles with such designation were ever built to my knowledge, it entered service as "AK" without numerical nomenclature. Lets be precise and not use Murican approach where everything with curved magazine is called "AK 47".

Militarov wrote:
"Old AK-47" - such thing does not exist, only about 100 rifles with such designation were ever built to my knowledge, it entered service as "AK" without numerical nomenclature. Lets be precise and not use Murican approach where everything with curved magazine is called "AK 47".

Thanks, but not being Russian, I didn't know that, and the term AK-47 is firmly rooted after decades. Just AK could lead to confusion, so you need to use the year numbers. It's curious anyway that these are old AKs, and not the AKMs as would be expected.

At combat ranges the difference in performance would not be that significant, so if, as you say, they don't have abundant sources of firearms then older models being used can be expected.

The older heavier rounds are less affected by barriers between the shooter and the target.

In terms of logistics the 7.62 x 39mm should be pretty abundant in the region...

The oldest weapons are to be used while are still useful. If there is a need of using weapons, the oldest useful weapons habitually go first. This is part of a good management of the resources.

Their use not necessarily means shortage of other more modern weapons.

List of equipment with vehicle numbers from the NAF Motor Rifle brigades and regiments;

http://mishaxaxa.livejournal.com/15244.html

franco wrote:List of equipment with vehicle numbers from the NAF Motor Rifle brigades and regiments;

http://mishaxaxa.livejournal.com/15244.html

It is very interesting.

In some cases, like the BMP-2, BTR-70 and 2S9, the number is exactly the expected after the analisys of the data offered by lostarmour.info.
In the case of the 2S1, T-72, BTR-80, MT-LB, BMP-1 and T-64 is higher, but it is necessary to take into account also the material captured in Crimea before to talk about supplies of different origin.
Also there are some types of weapons that are not listed, like the GMZ-3, 2S19, 2S5, MT-T, BM-27, 2S3, BRDM-2, BMD-1, BTR-60 and T-55 (engineering variant), but Novorussia should have some unit captured from Ukraine (less than 10 in every case except the BRDM-2).

eehnie wrote:

franco wrote:List of equipment with vehicle numbers from the NAF Motor Rifle brigades and regiments;

http://mishaxaxa.livejournal.com/15244.html

It is very interesting.

In some cases, like the BMP-2, BTR-70 and 2S9, the number is exactly the expected after the analisys of the data offered by lostarmour.info.
In the case of the 2S1, T-72, BTR-80, MT-LB, BMP-1 and T-64 is higher, but it is necessary to take into account also the material captured in Crimea before to talk about supplies of different origin.
Also there are some types of weapons that are not listed, like the GMZ-3, 2S19, 2S5, MT-T, BM-27, 2S3, BRDM-2, BMD-1, BTR-60 and T-55 (engineering variant), but Novorussia should have some unit captured from Ukraine (less than 10 in every case except the BRDM-2).

There are two artillery brigades not listed which hold all the heavy artillery and MRLS along with 2 reconnaissance battalions also not listed.

franco wrote:

eehnie wrote:

franco wrote:List of equipment with vehicle numbers from the NAF Motor Rifle brigades and regiments;

http://mishaxaxa.livejournal.com/15244.html

It is very interesting.

In some cases, like the BMP-2, BTR-70 and 2S9, the number is exactly the expected after the analisys of the data offered by lostarmour.info.
In the case of the 2S1, T-72, BTR-80, MT-LB, BMP-1 and T-64 is higher, but it is necessary to take into account also the material captured in Crimea before to talk about supplies of different origin.
Also there are some types of weapons that are not listed, like the GMZ-3, 2S19, 2S5, MT-T, BM-27, 2S3, BRDM-2, BMD-1, BTR-60 and T-55 (engineering variant), but Novorussia should have some unit captured from Ukraine (less than 10 in every case except the BRDM-2).

There are two artillery brigades not listed which hold all the heavy artillery and MRLS along with 2 reconnaissance battalions also not listed.

It makes sense. I expect big amounts of heavy towed artillery in Novorussia.

LPR forces captured RQ-11B Raven UAV used by Ukraine military

George1 wrote:LPR forces captured RQ-11B Raven UAV used by Ukraine military

Shame its variant without Gimbal.

A small remark on a possible new aggravation in the Donbass

On the fact of the campaign of 2014, the Debalce campaign of the winter of 2015, many expected the offensive of the VSN to the north and west, with the aim of destroying the APU. With rear support from Russia. That is, the application of the strategy of contrition (based on the classic division of the strategy) with rather large human sacrifices and resource costs.

It was from this understanding of the situation that a private initiative of the head of one of the departments of the young DNR, approved by the leadership of the republic, was associated with the unsuccessful attack of Maryinka in June 2015. Shares, poorly coordinated and prepared, and therefore turned into great victims.

However, over time, the fighting subsided, resulting in positional duels and the activities of the DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) along the front line (and also in the depths of the young republics of the People's Republic of China and the People's Republic of Germany - in connection with the creation of Ukraine's own centralized special operations forces, which was legally formalized on July 26, 2016 of the year). Little by little, there were fewer forecasts for the intensification of hostilities - in connection with the reduction of the bloodshed of the conflict. The true format of the confrontation has become obvious: a war of attrition or a war of decay (the exact opposite of contrition - according to all the same I understand strategies in the classical sense).

"Window of Opportunity" ("Overton window") then opened, then closed in the minds of the politically active part of the population. That is because of the election of the US president, because of the season change in Ukraine (winter, spring mudslide and so on). The next "Overton window" will open in May or in the summer of this year, which does not mean, however, the intensification of hostilities for that period.

Brief assessment of prospects:

As of December 30, 2016, LDNR (or the young republics of Donbass - which is the better term?) Gave the following estimates for MAT:

1. DNR: personnel - 32 thousand 438 people, tanks - 213 units, artillery installations with caliber 152 and 122 mm - 351 units, mortars with a caliber of 82 and 120 mm - 198 units, MLRS - 84 units, armored combat vehicles - 1154.

2. LLR: personnel - 19,464 thousand people, tanks - 186 units, artillery installations caliber 152 and 122 mm - 235 units.

Apparently, this was considered against each of the republics and the figures needed to be summarized. Thus, the AFU grouping "in the ATU zone" for the finals of 2016 very strongly "sank" in the autumn (52 thousand in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a certain number of "departmental" and in the national formations - in the amount of 60-65 thousand bayonets). Approximately 20 thousand bayonets.

At the same time, part of the forces (the same 128th Mountain Infantry Brigade, known by Debaltsevo) received an order for rotation under the New Year and met New Year's Eve in echelons near Kiev. Those. "Subsidence" was associated with the elementary sending of personnel to homes: January 17-18, the 128th Brigade is already full "shines" under Stanitsa Luganskaya.

Part of the personnel of the 55th artillery brigade is celebrated in celebrations in Zaporozhye, the 57th is on vacation in Kherson, 92nd is under steam in Kharkov. In general, parts were taken.

For comparison, here's how the founders of the unfriendly resource Milkavkaz (which means the need to evaluate this resource with a certain amount of skepticism) were assessed by the VSN (admittedly, as of summer 2016):

True, according to these data, the VSN has at least 50-60 thousand bayonets in its staff, at least 320 tanks (apparently, the figure is understated - according to the resulted OLS is obtained much more, not less than 400 machines), hundreds of artillery systems. All this - including departmental structures, which gives a difference from the generally accepted estimates of 32-35 thousand military personnel (the latter, perhaps, only the Corps). However, in fact, apparently, staffing has never been.

In addition, the LDPR have a prepared reserve (the number of which alone for the summer of 2016 was at least 30-40 thousand infantry), which, together with detachments of volunteers from Russia with full mobilization, can give more than 100 thousand people in the ranks of the VSN, which will be resisted Comparable or (maybe) even a slightly smaller number of APU - whose command still holds a part of the forces on Perekop and near Odessa (where the exercises take place).

All this - for 426 kilometers of the front, most of which relies on a highly urbanized area (dense urban development) and the Kalmius River and Seversky Donets. Accordingly, there is as yet no talk of an operation analogous to Operation Storm conducted in the Serbian Krajina in 1995 by Croats.

There are estimates for February 11: "The total number of up to 89 950 people, battalions and BTG - 75 tanks to 432, MLRS to 206, BBM to 2085."

Those. For the month (from early January to early February), the strength of the Ukrainian Armed Forces increased by about one and a half times, from 60 to 90 thousand bayonets, while the amount of equipment increased insignificantly - the same tanks by 30-35 units (just pulled from the rear, drawn and Sent on vacation for New Year's staff).

However, the justification of this figure - "90 thousand" bayonets - raises certain doubts. No, of course, the main trend of the Russian mass media today (with reference to the situation in the Donbass) is "we are weak, they are strong." However, there are legitimate reasons to believe that the named number of "90 thousand" exists today only on paper.

A hundred years ago, surviving the internal systemic crisis, the Russian Empire was defeated in the First World War. The Provisional Government that came to power, the legislative acts it adopted, and the actual establishment of a dual power in the country led to the collapse of the front. Hundreds of thousands and millions of soldiers moved home from the war zone, taking with them rifles and other government material.

Something similar with the New Year began to happen in Ukraine. At the beginning of January 2017, President Poroshenko, guided by not entirely understandable convictions, signed a law (earlier, in early December 2016, adopted by the Rada of Ukraine) "On Amending Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Improving the Procedure for Military Service."

Among other measures in this legislative act, servicemen of Ukraine serving under the contract were given the right to early termination of the contract (subject to a service life of up to 2 years, true). Moreover, such a measure was preceded by a general set-up for the contract service of persons sent to the "ATU zone" in 2016, with the replacement of "departmental officers" and those who served there on an urgent basis. That is, the combatant was given a legitimate right to leave the risk area without any recognition of his desertion and criminal prosecution under the laws of Ukraine.

The consequences that this leads to can be seen in the examples below. The APU today is about four dozen different brigades (tank, mechanized, airmobile and artillery), without taking into account others and taking into account the newly revived units. Numerically, this should be very much (approximately 5,000 bayonets on average per brigade), but in fact much less.

So, more than a quarter of the staff of the Nicholas 79th Airmobile Brigade filed an application for dismissal in April because of a systematic non-payment of salaries. Today the brigade has 1700 people (according to the state of war time - 5400 bayonets). Taking into account the April "exodus" (482 troops) and the subsequent May (800 more soldiers) by the summer, the brigade will represent a consolidated battalion level unit (400-500 bayonets), which is not capable of solving the tasks assigned to it.

There are other data. So, in February, the 72nd mechanized brigade of the APU was actually withdrawn from the line of contact in connection with the scale of dismissals and desertions. 128th Brigade is also present in the Luhansk direction only partly (recently its units were again noted at the family site in Transcarpathia).

This is somewhat more than the expected "10% of those who left" out of the number of 70,000 contractors, whom on January 11, 2017, the deputy head of the Main Directorate of Staff of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Mark Andrusyak, pathetically stated.

As a result, the maximum outflow of personnel from the ranks of the APU is expected by the summer. Information that is silently hushed up in the media (however, the first alarming bells, as seen above, are). This period coincides with the time of the most optimal season for an offensive in Ukraine ("when the earth dries").

While that while the APU is decreasing - VSN is getting stronger, replaying in the positional struggle. Estimations of the potential of the operational command forces of Donetsk and Lugansk for today are the ultimate reason for confusion (some spreads "from 300 to 700 tanks" and "from 30 to 70 thousand" personnel, without their layout, what they cost). Moreover, the transition from a winning strategy to a no less victorious strategy of contrition (the transition from defense to offensive - what Napoleon Bonaparte called "the most complicated operation") - is always possible after reaching a certain level.

The new "Window Overton" will open with the onset of heat - May and summer. It is necessary to wait this season.