TheArmenian Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:03 pm
In the Cauldron: The ground is burning under the feet of the occupants.
The war is far from over. Kiev is pushing hard toward Donetsk and Lugansk while the rebels are pushing hard against the surrounded Kiev troops in the southern cauldron.
Both sides are lacking in manpower:
-Kiev is actively mobilizing and boosting its numbers.
-Novorossiya is actively recruiting volunteers.
Kiev has and will continue to have the advantage in numbers, but many of the soldiers are unwilling and unmotivated. Desertion, surrender and running away are common.
Novorossiya is not getting the desirable number of soldiers, but there is no lack of motivation. They are standing their ground as much as possible against superior numbers of the opponents and we hardly seen them running away or mass surrendering.
Time is not on Kiev's side. If they don't accomplish their objectives within the next couple of weeks, their operation will run out of steam due to a number of financial, logistical, political, psychological and moral reasons. If the rebels stand their ground for the next few weeks, they will start getting the upper hand with the steady flow of new recruits and the tide will turn.
The next two weeks will be crucial for this conflict. In case Kiev manages to press ahead and capture Donetsk/Lugansk, the rebels will have to abandon their positional warfare strategy and proceed to partisan/guerilla style warfare.
In case Kiev fails, the counter offensive towards Kharkov and/or other regions will bring the junta to the negotiating table.
Just my two kopeks.