Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

I suspect that this tank will now be headed for a museum.

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
Tonight, kamikaze drones "Geran" destroyed a military arsenal in the Rakitnyansky district of the Kyiv region, NASA satellites recorded more than ten sources of fire in the territory of ammunition depots after 3 am.

Object coordinates: 49.623573, 30.657520

Local authorities confirm the arrival at an “infrastructure facility” in the Kyiv region, without specifying where and what arrived. Only the consequences of the blast wave in the form of damaged private houses are mentioned.



#source:
https://t.me/milinfolive/10

A long but interesting analysis

Some or many won't agree with my assessment, but I do believe that is worth contemplating over it.

We are using the phrase "to the last Ukrainian", too often,( I wrote about it earlier) which we, to emphasize and make an argument stronger, always combine with their nonstop mobilization and, now, also, with mobilizing those who are unfit for military service. If it's followed by some video of the forceful recruiting, even better. For us.

However, we tend to forget one crucial thing. In Artemovsk, many of those who fought for AFU were territorial defense units, with little or no training. They were sent, along with better-trained and equipped troops to try to hold the city. As a logical conclusion of their participation, they were mostly wiped out to the last men, or rendered ineffective due to terrible losses sustained. No one contests that fact, because it's true, and well-known. Wagner did a good job.

But, you will remember that many are terdefense units. Right? Let's go forward. Only a few months later, AFU attacked with heavy force in Zaporozhye, and recently in Donetsk. They still hold Marinka, Avdeevka, and Ugledar, and slowly retreat in Kypiansk's direction.

Now, those attacking in Zaporozhye & Donetsk are Western and domestically trained troops, heavily armed, in significant amounts with Western weapons. Now, I don't want to reinvent the wheel, and claim something, but Artemovsk was delaying action, and paid dearly by an AFU. Ukraine's high command decided to buy time in the blood (tbh, they couldn't do it in another way) but sent those with lower combat value, to save troops for the main attack.

Now, after all this time, the main attack wasn't decisive nor lethal, as some feared. In Ua HQ don't sit idiots. They are trained in the same schools as Russian generals. If you believe in the opposite, you are wrong. They tried the form of blitzkrieg attack, which proved futile, probably under the influence of NATO Generals. However, they are still attacking. A logical question arises. Why are they attacking? Is it time to call it off?

Often the used answer is: 1) They can't do it, NATO doesn't allow it; 2) It's for the PR. I will offer answer no 3) which you may agree or disagree with. The offense is the best defense. While the grouping currently fighting is being spent, (at this point, already over 80.000 Kia/Wia/Mia), Ua is doing the same thing that the Artemovsk group did - meaning: forming, training, and equipping another main battle group, and at the same time creating, again, a secondary group which will consist of defense units.

The job of the latter will be to take and try to absorb the Russian counter-strike as much as possible without the need to sacrifice too much of the main strike group, in terms of the men and equipment. The idea is similar to ours, allow the enemy to attack, slow him down, wear him as much as possible and when the time is right, strike again with a newly created main group. Then repeat if needed.

You see, Ua complains about men, but maybe not because of what we are thinking of.

Recruitment centers were under pressure to fulfill quotas. Being corrupted, they let go of many. Kiev and bigger cities are full of military-capable men. The problem is in inefficiency of recruiters. All those fit will go to better training to create a new main group.

All those unfit, young, old, women (maybe), who are intended to contain the Russian attack will get minimal training. They don't need better, except knowing how to shoot, because they would be sitting in the trenches and fortifications, waiting for the Russian army to flush them out, but at the same time to wear themselves down in the process

Everything that we have seen so far, from the beginning of the SMO and onwards, led us to think that such development is not only possible but has already been used on several occasions. Such an approach is paid dearly in terms of human lives and it's not honorable, but that who fights with honor, obviously didn't wage war.

In fact, similar examples we can find in the old Soviet manuals and teachings, some directly from the battlefield of WW2 against Germans, where, some divisions of low quality were put first, to try to weaken the Germans, thus allowing more worthy Soviet troops to capitalize on weaken enemy. Both sides know that.

Regarding weapons lost, losses in hardware are big for UA, but they have plenty of. Keep in mind that weapons are flowing non-stop. The news that the USA is sending 190 MRAPS a few days ago passed almost unnoticed. There are many such cases. So, no, Ukraine will not run out of weapons anytime soon.

Personally, I believe that the path to victory in this conflict, chosen by Moscow, is to break the possibility of Ua waging war for generations to come. Degradation, exhaustion, will-breaking, and utter defeat, a kind of war of attrition, but on a much grander scale is the solution accepted. Similar also writes in Soviet strategic doctrine. That means that the war will not end anytime soon.

After that, it won't be any Ukraine anymore


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/62609

The United States announced Ukraine's readiness for negotiations with Russia, 09.10.2023.

US Secretary of State Blinken: Ukraine is ready for negotiations with Russia.

Ukraine is ready for negotiations with Russia, but the conditions and future borders will depend on the opinion of Kyiv, US Secretary of State Blinken said. Russia ruled out the withdrawal of troops to the 1991 borders and called for recognizing “realities on the ground”.

Kiev is ready for negotiations with Moscow and will begin them if Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready for dialogue, but so far there are no signs that he is “showing any interest in constructive diplomacy,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on ABC .

Blinken added that the terms and future borders would depend on Ukraine's views. At the same time, at present, according to him, peace negotiations are unattainable, since “it takes two to tango.” “Everyone wants this war to end,” he stressed.

The Secretary of State also did not agree with criticism of the final declaration adopted at the G20 summit.

Blinken pointed out that everyone present at the summit spoke for the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, and therefore the statement was strong. In addition, he continued, the participating “leader after leader” spoke about the negative impact of the conflict on the world. “In the hall, at the table, it was absolutely clear that countries are feeling the consequences and want Russian aggression to stop,” the secretary of state concluded.

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/09/2023/64fe0bea9a794781630b5dcc

Backman wrote:ATACMS are being delivered now and Russia just does nothing.

Do you have a link confirming this?

A sine qua non condition for Russia now agreeing to negotiations on 404 should be the complete NATO wipe-out.

JohninMK wrote:

Backman wrote:ATACMS are being delivered now and Russia just does nothing.

Do you have a link confirming this?

So that's a no then. The supply of ATACMS would be an important step. You shouldn't toss a comment like that around lightly.

Especially as its total crap as per

Sprinter
@Sprinter99800
.
8h
The US was not ready to announce the transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine

The United States is not yet ready to announce the transfer of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, but does not rule out this in the future. This was stated by Deputy White House National Security Advisor Jonathan Feiner.

Finer added that Washington intends to continue to provide military assistance to Kyiv.

So perhaps not a HARM after all.

Sprinter
@Sprinter99800
·
12h
Evidence has emerged of the use of the Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS in Konstantinovka in the form of characteristic holes

Backman wrote:@JohninMK. It seems there is conflicting reports about them 

I would rate the Deputy White House National Security Advisor as a higher quality source than a social media 'Journalist' based in his house in north London.

Time will tell.

Sorry to say so, but Mercouris is utterly wrong when he states that the Yanqui ATACMS missiles will be aimed at the Kerch bridge. They'll be ultimately and cowardly aimed at targets among the Russian civilian population, as they've always have done so.
The answer to this is the deployment of Iskander missiles in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela!