2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

Russia should not accept this

Attack on Azerbaijan equal to attack on Turkey — senior Ankara official

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said earlier in the day that his country is ready to support Azerbaijan in the conflict both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield

https://tass.com/world/1206409

The land swap idea, only concerns the displaced refugees. Of course it can work. Land exchanged in proportion to size of displaced persons. But for the sake of peace a road plan can be agreed also. One along Azeri / Georgian border, linking Russia to Armenia from North. The other road from Azerbaijan along Azeri / Iranian border, south through Nakichevan to Turkey. For transit of civilian goods.

George1 wrote:Russia should not accept this

Attack on Azerbaijan equal to attack on Turkey — senior Ankara official

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said earlier in the day that his country is ready to support Azerbaijan in the conflict both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield

https://tass.com/world/1206409

Russia cannot on the basis of CSTO has someone just said, if the Armenians call for help and its goes by the rule of the treaty the Russians will have shown their words means shit mainy when they have a cooperative mutual defense treaty in place

I think the major question now and for the next few days is whether Armenia decides to call in the treaty obligations. They definitely have enough evidence they could muster together to formally claim that they have been attacked on Armenian soil itself. This would put Moscow in a bind, but might be exactly what we need to get off our asses in this case.
Guess we'll see soon enough.

well, the UNSC meeting is today. So I think Russia will say something near end of today. Although, Russia should hold an emergency security meeting of its own and have a statement in Armenia's defense. After all, it may not look good on Russia if they do not assist Armenia where they have written agreements of defense while Azerbaijan and Turkey do not.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1310970638438404097

Osa-AKM (system from the 80s...) tracking a moitiring munition drone with its optics.

If they can track them like that then the best would be a kornet missile guided by laser with lasee proximity fuses ir buy the Sosna-R.

Attack on Azerbaijan equal to attack on Turkey — senior Ankara official

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said earlier in the day that his country is ready to support Azerbaijan in the conflict both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield

Erdogan must told that the more he provoks the more chances there are to face a war. I guess someone will give him its war.

Russia will do nothing.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Russia will do nothing.

Famous last words

Fake Armenian news. Turkey is not stupid to attack Armenia on Armenian soil, especially when Azeri drones are doing a very good job on their own on Azeri soil.

Armenian leaders are producing pathetic cryparties and calling with worldleaders to get financial support of the diaspora and military aid from Russia.

Now they are lobbying for sanctions and weapon embargos against Turkey. And tomorrow they will say that Turkey killed 94 billion Armenians.

Turkey may lose Azerbaijan as Armenia is a Russian protectorate. Iran & Russia may team up to bring Baku to its senses. Time will tell!

Turkey and Russia benefits both from this war. Armenia and Azerbaijan need new weapons. This fighting will hold on max a week and the status quo wil remain.

A lot of dollars for the Turkish Republic and the Russian Federation. They need this very hard in these times.

Tsavo Lion wrote:Turkey may lose Azerbaijan as Armenia is a Russian protectorate. Iran & Russia may team up to bring Baku to its senses. Time will tell!

His argument is that the territory in question is Internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan and because of that Armenia cannot go to Russia for help since the land is considered by the global community to be part of Azerbaijan. Has Armenia is not being attacked on its "home soil".

That said in the disputed region most of the population is Ethnic Armenian.

One of the best videos from this war. Although Armenian air defense in Artzakh have old air defense systems (S-300, Buk and Tor-M2 are in Armenia, not in Artzakh), they shot down quite a big number of drones. There will be a lot of lessons to study. I wonder how many drones Azerbaijan have left? They used and lost them in big numbers.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/azerbaijan-picks-a-fight-over-lost-armenian-enclave/?mc_cid=497776b3be&mc_eid=5455568640

Azerbaijan showed the bodies of Armenian soldiers killed in Nagorno-Karabakh: video

https://strana.ua/news/292328-vojna-v-nahornom-karabakhe-chto-proiskhodit-29-sentjabrja-v-armenii-i-azerbajdzhane.html

https://strana.ua/news/292328-vojna-v-nahornom-karabakhe-chto-proiskhodit-29-sentjabrja-v-armenii-i-azerbajdzhane.html

This can be dangerous situation for because assholes are trying to start conflicts on Russia's borders.

And this situation will pull in Turkey, UAE and others.

The Ottoman wrote:Turkey and Russia benefits both from this war. Armenia and Azerbaijan need new weapons. This fighting will hold on max a week and the status quo wil remain.

A lot of dollars for the Turkish Republic and the Russian Federation. They need this very hard in these times.

Actually no, Russia needs peace on its doorsteps, not conflicts.

The Ottoman wrote:Turkey and Russia benefits both from this war. Armenia and Azerbaijan need new weapons. This fighting will hold on max a week and the status quo wil remain.

A lot of dollars for the Turkish Republic and the Russian Federation. They need this very hard in these times.

Arms sales to Armenia and Azerbaijan are chump change for the Russians. I suspect that Azeri sales subsidize Armenia's heavily discounted weapons sales indirectly anyways (modern missile and air defense batteries are ridiculously expensive for the economy of Armenia), so there's really not much gain in the entire venture. On the other hand the increased readiness posture which includes massive preparations for cross border ops exercises do cost a pretty penny similar to actual warfare itself, minus the loss in manpower, and that is money that could be used for better things than signaling.

No big news yet.

Armenia claiming it intercepted communications of turkish F-16s: https://lenta.ru/news/2020/09/30/peregovori/
Azeri's saying they will move to liquidate a surrounded group of Armenians: https://lenta.ru/news/2020/09/30/zachistka/
Armenia is still playing coy about using treaty obligations, saying things like the Russian base being an essential part of their national defence but that it is not needed yet: https://lenta.ru/news/2020/09/30/voenbaz/

Probably things will be similar to yesterday.

So the Azeri apparently engages the Armenian S-300.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2020/09/300.html#more

Rather ugly Event.

It raises question on where is the cover for the S-300's and more importantly why it's still there in the first place for the Loitering munitions to loiter around. The Azeri claimed to use Harop which is an anti radiation loitering munition. This can loiter for a long time and home in to radar emission. They are slow but this makes them ideal as radar may have difficulty in picking it (It in fact might filter it out as it could fly as slow as a bird) It's not just RCS but also that a radar have a rejection notch for clutter, which set into a speed where typical object such as birds are rejected. The drone can utilize it thus evades detection.

Since no agreement is possible right now. And two sides are incapable, even when ceasefire in force, to reach mutual beneficial agreement. Then the realistic  choices for  Russia / Iran are ,  to enforce as far as possible, a freezing of all offensive actions by Armenia and Azeri side. And maintain as far as possible a static situation, as regards ground forces, based on current positions, on the line of contact. No forceful territorial conquest can be allowed, even if it involves the recapture of previous lost territory, since forceful recapture is not guaranteed to stop. And is not the answer to the problem either. Since return to previous geography of separate mixed populations, was not practical. Only a rational separation by agreement, of homogenous populations and territory, can work.

Stealthflanker wrote:So the Azeri apparently engages the Armenian S-300.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2020/09/300.html#more

Rather ugly Event.

It raises question on where is the cover for the S-300's and more importantly why it's still there in the first place for the Loitering munitions to loiter around.  The Azeri claimed to use Harop which is an anti radiation loitering munition. This can loiter for a long time and home in to radar emission. They are slow but this makes them ideal as radar may have difficulty in picking it (It in fact might filter it out as it could fly as slow as a bird)  It's not just RCS but also that a radar have a rejection notch for clutter, which set into a speed where typical object such as birds are rejected.  The drone can utilize it thus evades detection.

That very same Harop had much better video clarity on other strikes. I wouldn't put much stock in that footage given ongoing IOPs.

Pashinyan stated Armenia's desire to build new relations with Russia

Armenia wants to build qualitatively new relations with Russia. This was stated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at a meeting with journalists in Yerevan on Wednesday, September 30.
The war broke out: what and who aggravates the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Yerevan and Baku reject possibility of negotiations until ceasefire

"Nothing has happened in the relations between Armenia and Russia (after the change of power in Armenia in 2018 - Ed.) and there are no nuances that were not present in our relations, for example four or seven years ago. But relations between any countries are dynamic," "Interfax" quotes him.

According to him, Armenia's goal in its relations with Russia is "building relations of a new level and quality".

"I am sure that we are going along this path. It may not be a very iridescent path, but I don't think the word "iridescent" is very appropriate especially in the geopolitical context," the premier added.

On the eve, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The leaders discussed the aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. During the conversation, Putin expressed concern over the ongoing fighting in the region.

Another aggravation of the situation in the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh occurred on September 27. Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of shelling and death among military and peaceful population.

According to the latest data voiced by Armenian Defense Ministry representative Artsrun Hovhannisyan, 137 armored vehicles have been destroyed in Nagorno-Karabakh since the beginning of the conflict escalation, 72 drones, seven helicopters and one Azerbaijani aircraft have been shot down.

It was noted in Baku that during the battles about 130 armored vehicles, more than 200 artillery, missile launchers, mortars and about 25 enemy air defense systems were destroyed.

Relations between Yerevan and Baku remain tense because of the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's ownership. The region, located in the eastern part of the Armenian Highland, announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijani SSR in 1988. However, Baku considers the territory its own.

https://iz.ru/1067345/2020-09-30/pashinian-zaiavil-o-zhelanii-armenii-postroit-novye-otnosheniia-s-rossiei
So much for multivector policies. First Belarus, now Armenia. Who's next?