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Russia is also making suicide drones, the question is how do you defend against them?
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2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1
par far- Posts : 3488
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SeigSoloyvov- Posts : 3721
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JohninMK wrote:flamming_python wrote:
I don't really like Putin's approach but it does make sense. If he doesn't have someone dependent on him he won't be able to push through a peace plan and the whole conflict will just go on forever.
In some ways it could be a bit like Russia's support in Donbass, nothing that could actually be pinned on them but everyone knew they were there.
But, as I suggested a couple of days ago, an Iskander strike on a bit of minor feeder pipeline, especially the gas line to Turkey, could have them round the negotiating table before you could blink.
Not really that would also make the Azeri's target none military positions which could lead to a catastrophic result if both start gong there.
AbdulhamidtheSecond- Posts : 220
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https://twitter.com/seyyah_medya/status/1312415486504730625?s=20
Madagiz is captured by Azerbaijan army.
Madagiz is captured by Azerbaijan army.
JohninMK
JohninMK- Posts : 14844
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SeigSoloyvov wrote:
JohninMK wrote
But, as I suggested a couple of days ago, an Iskander strike on a bit of minor feeder pipeline, especially the gas line to Turkey, could have them round the negotiating table before you could blink.
SeigSoloyvov wrote
Not really that would also make the Azeri's target none military positions which could lead to a catastrophic result if both start gong there.
Maybe, but the Armenians have no target that is anywhere near the value and vulnerability of the two pipelines, oil and gas, out of Azeriland. The Azeris are absolutely dependent on the money flow from them and the Turks depend on the gas (as well as probably good pay, they desperately need $, from the Azeris for their help, like in Libya). The gas pipe in particular is the elephant in the room but the Armenians have to demonstrate that they they have the balls to hit it if they have to.
This is a bit like the UK passing the Law that nullifies the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU. Until we did that the EU did not believe that we would so felt they were in a better negotiating position.
Tsavo Lion- Posts : 5815
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- Drones playing big role in Nagorno-Karabakh fight
https://telegraf.com.ua/mir/aziya/5564045-boi-za-nagornyiy-karabah-chto-izvestno-o-poteryah-i-situatsii-na-utro-3-oktyabrya.html
Armenia Says It Is Ready to Work for Ceasefire Syrian Fighter Details His Experience in Nagorno-Karabakh
| Bus Carrying Russia, Armenian Journalists Hit by Artillery Fire in Nagorno-Karabakh: RIA | |
| Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Ministry Reports 54 More Military Casualties |
| 'We Want More': Armenians in US Push Trump Administration to Support Homeland |
| Azerbaijan Denies That Warplane and Two Drones Shot Down |
| Armenian PM Claims Evidence of Turkish Support for Azerbaijan |
| Russia, Iran Concerned About Syrian and Libyan Fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh: Moscow |
| Armenian PM Says Turkey Taking New Genocidal Path |
| Putin, Armenian PM Discuss Nagorno-Karabakh in Third Phone Call in Six Days: Kremlin |
| Canada Probing Allegations Azeri Forces Are Using Canadian Technology in Nagorno-Karabakh |
War for Oil, again? Why are Russia and Turkey intervening in the Azerbaijan-Armenia Clashes?
Tsavo Lion- Posts : 5815
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Azerbaijani Armed Forces took control of Madagiz - Aliyev village
Armenia announces destruction of Azerbaijani Armed Forces helicopter
The French connection
Is another war between Russia and Turkey possible?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZOpsRL0vHchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO1yG5V3fGQ
Arrow- Posts : 2776
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Drones playing big role in Nagorno-Karabakh figh
Drones rule this battlefield. There are tons of movies about how the Azeris destroy Armenian technology with drones.
flamming_python- Posts : 9056
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Armenian officials on their way to Moscow
https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1312405024769814528
Ought to be interesting. At least Georgia didn't block this flight.
Also significant that Putin hasn't phoned up with Aliyev since the conflict began.
https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1312405024769814528
Ought to be interesting. At least Georgia didn't block this flight.
Also significant that Putin hasn't phoned up with Aliyev since the conflict began.
SeigSoloyvov- Posts : 3721
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flamming_python wrote:Armenian officials on their way to Moscow
https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1312405024769814528
Ought to be interesting. At least Georgia didn't block this flight.
Also significant that Putin hasn't phoned up with Aliyev since the conflict began.
Perhaps they hope to have Moscow commit the armed forces but that won't happen.
CSTO is under no obligation to protect the region.
Isos- Posts : 11327
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One thing no one mentionned is that Russia can help through Hmeimim. They can bring stuff there with their ships and use il-76 to fly through Iraq/Iran.
For that matter even through Caspian/Iran/Armenia is also a quick road.
For that matter even through Caspian/Iran/Armenia is also a quick road.
AbdulhamidtheSecond- Posts : 220
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Putin will tell him to fuck off until they remove all the US and NATO related personnel within Armenian government and politics, and abandon any policy that would eventually benefit NATO.
I think Putin does not fully commit Russia in favor of Armenia as this would draw more US/Israel attention and favor towards Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani oil involves big amount of European investors, especially BP, and Russia does not want to push all these guys to an unescapable corner. Just like cats. If a cat is cornered, then it attacks with what it has.
I think their strategy will involve non military mediation for a permanent peace, but I dont really think some chunk of Karabakh territory really makes difference for Russia.
I think Putin does not fully commit Russia in favor of Armenia as this would draw more US/Israel attention and favor towards Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani oil involves big amount of European investors, especially BP, and Russia does not want to push all these guys to an unescapable corner. Just like cats. If a cat is cornered, then it attacks with what it has.
I think their strategy will involve non military mediation for a permanent peace, but I dont really think some chunk of Karabakh territory really makes difference for Russia.
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zorobabel- Posts : 702
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Azerbaijan claims to have captured the town of Madaghis: https://t.me/isayevios/1663
If true, unlike other advances, it is not an abandoned town.
If true, unlike other advances, it is not an abandoned town.
lyle6- Posts : 2209
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Anything that furthers Turkish aims in the region at the expense of Russia is a NATO win. For this reason alone it makes little sense to punish Armenia with losing Artsakh when they clearly are going for a course correction. Why should Russia cut off its nose to spite itself?AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Putin will tell him to fuck off until they remove all the US and NATO related personnel within Armenian government and politics, and abandon any policy that would eventually benefit NATO.
I think Putin does not fully commit Russia in favor of Armenia as this would draw more US/Israel attention and favor towards Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani oil involves big amount of European investors, especially BP, and Russia does not want to push all these guys to an unescapable corner. Just like cats. If a cat is cornered, then it attacks with what it has.
I think their strategy will involve non military mediation for a permanent peace, but I dont really think some chunk of Karabakh territory really makes difference for Russia.
We're under no obligation to hear you repeat the same tired tripe over and over like a broken record yet here we are. But do go on, eventually you'll actually learn to believe what you've been saying.SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Perhaps they hope to have Moscow commit the armed forces but that won't happen.
CSTO is under no obligation to protect the region.
The frontlines are quite fluid. Expect a counter-attack to retake the town just like they did with other positions.zorobabel wrote:Azerbaijan claims to have captured the town of Madaghis: https://t.me/isayevios/1663
If true, unlike other advances, it is not an abandoned town.
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SeigSoloyvov- Posts : 3721
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If you believe CSTO has any obligation to protect Karabakh you are delusional plain and simple.
Tsavo Lion- Posts : 5815
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Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.
E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.
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Tsavo Lion wrote:Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.
Are you high? Putin isn't going to annex Armenia and Azerbaijan...
No Russia isn't justified to target Azerbaijan because some terrorists are there, that's like saying that gives the US the right to bomb Russia if it had a group we consider terrorists....
Everything you just said is crazy talk.
lyle6- Posts : 2209
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That's too much. It makes no sense to go for annexation. Historically the region was always underdeveloped and required far too much Russian blood and treasure to keep than it gave back. Losing these states has been a net boon for the Russians.Tsavo Lion wrote:Putin may wait 2-3 weeks more till both sides get exhausted & run out of ammo. before coming in & annexing both Armenia & Azerbaijan or at least Nagorno-Karabakh.
E. Georgian areas r also claimed by Armenia & Russia may want to take it as well to have a land corridor to Armenia.
Most of the fighters from Syria that Turkey sent there r C. Asians from the Stans & China; Russia & Armenia r now justified to target anywhere incl. in Azerbaijan itself. Otherwise, the area will become another Chechnya, Dagestan & Afghanistan infested with jihadis.
Projections aside, by what arcane motivation do you think would propel Russia to act in the manner that you are predicting it would?SeigSoloyvov wrote:If you believe CSTO has any obligation to protect Karabakh you are delusional plain and simple.
What would Russia gain if Armenia is thrown under the bus?
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Isos- Posts : 11327
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Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.
However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.
A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.
However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.
A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.
Tsavo Lion- Posts : 5815
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She felt justified enough intervening in Syria to protect the Assad regime from ISIS/other "terrorists", many of whom came from the Caucasus & killing them there; now some of them r in the Caucasus which is a natural barrier for large scale invasion of S. Russia with its Black & Caspian coasts, roads & internal waterways. It's also a platform to watch/keep in check Turkey & Iran, just like Tibet is for China to watch/keep in check India.No Russia isn't justified to target Azerbaijan because some terrorists are there, that's like saying that gives the US the right to bomb Russia if it had a group we consider terrorists....
Ditto. Ms of Azeris also live in Dagestan which is in RF & elsewhere in the RF, not to mention Ms of Armenians. If the war goes on, it will spread to Russian cities were they will engage in pogroms & killings- some of it already happened. Other Muslims & Christians will join them. Is it better for Russia to expel them all instead & become more exposed on her Southern flank?However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall.
Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:23 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
Isos- Posts : 11327
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Another failed attack with israeli missile. The LORA missile used yesterday targeted this bridge and failed to destroy it. Using missiles to destroy bridges isn't the best choice.
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Isos wrote:One thing no one mentionned is that Russia can help through Hmeimim. They can bring stuff there with their ships and use il-76 to fly through Iraq/Iran.
For that matter even through Caspian/Iran/Armenia is also a quick road.
They can't really, Turkey has the Bosphorus Strait
And why would they when mainland Russia is closer?
lyle6 wrote:For this reason alone it makes little sense to punish Armenia with losing Artsakh when they clearly are going for a course correction.
They are going for course correction now when everyone else dropped them cold and are getting ripped to shreds
Like with Belarus Russia was not their first option (or anything other than dead last and only in absolute desperation) and this fact is not lost on Russia
Armenia simply failed to do it's homework on Nagorno Karabah despite having years to do so and knowing full well that Azerbaijan is getting ready to move
And while Russia does need Armenia they don't really need Nagorno Karabah and Armenia should have known this (not even Armenia seems to need it otherwise they would have recognized it by now)
And this will not stop with Nagorno Karabah, that pan-Turckic corridor or whatever is still bisected by Armenia itself and while Azeris may want to stop after this the Turks will definitely not stop (and Azeris will be owing them big time)
So this will not be stopping for a very long time and Armenians should have figured it out by now
What's left to be seen is if they still even have anything they could offer to Russia in exchange for help (as in something that Russia would not be able to get much cheaper anyway once this is done)
I doubt they do, they are now forced to ask for a lot and with very little to offer in return
lyle6- Posts : 2209
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And yet I fail to see exactly any reason at all for Russia to just allow the Azeris to take Artsakh. Nothing. The Azeris and Turks are no military threats at all. They don't have nearly a fraction of the influence Russia commands in the region. They don't have the economy to pursue a war or even to bankroll their diplomacy. They aren't even stable domestically - one suffered a coup relatively recently and the other is a gulf shithole transplanted to the Caucasus complete with neutered military for coup-proofing. Why should Russia cower to these two jokes of a country?Isos wrote:Russia doesn't care about NK. It doesn't recognize it anyway so they have no obligation to help Armenia.
However Armenia is a buffer zone so they won't let it fall. As long as it is a war for and in NK they won't act. But if it gets bigger than that Azeri will get some clear messages and will have to sign a cease fire.
A bit like in Syria. They did nothing untill their bases were threatened and then bombed the shit out of everyone. Azeri are not stupid.
Isos- Posts : 11327
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An intervention is easy but then maintaining the peace is quite impossible (Syria, Iraq, Afghan.) and that would bring more instability and impact Chechnya which is something Putin doesn't want.
A rich muslim country at your border is better than a poor one.
A rich muslim country at your border is better than a poor one.
lyle6- Posts : 2209
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The status quo was a perfectly fine state of affairs. The Azeris had no need for Artsakh dirt-poor that it is and filled with people who despise the Azeris. They only want Artsakh because they got their egos mauled badly by the Armenians who refused to lie down and die. F*ck them. If they want an escalation they are welcome to it. Start with calibrating the Azeri energy extraction sites, and deporting Azeri guest workers en masse. See how they like being plunged in poverty like they did the Artsakhians.Isos wrote:An intervention is easy but then maintaining the peace is quite impossible (Syria, Iraq, Afghan.) and that would bring more instability and impact Chechnya which is something Putin doesn't want.
A rich muslim country at your border is better than a poor one.
slasher- Posts : 196
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I say let these former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states who choose to flirt with the West and spit on Russia pay dearly for their fantasy forays. Let them come to terms with reality the hard way and pay the full price. The whole lot of them... Armenia, Ukraine, Belarus, Serbia...
Putin is playing this well, make them pay until they break. Until they come to realize it is them that need Russia and not Russia that needs them. The venom and hatred piled on Russia in the past two decades should not be forgotten or lightly forgiven.
Putin is playing this well, make them pay until they break. Until they come to realize it is them that need Russia and not Russia that needs them. The venom and hatred piled on Russia in the past two decades should not be forgotten or lightly forgiven.
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