Syrian War: News #12

The US is going to give the Kurds heavier weapons, this can't sit well with Erdogan "the moron". The Kurds are being used for the same purpose that Isis was going to be used for, get a pipeline to Europe to undermine Russia.



https://southfront.org/trump-administration-to-provide-heavier-weapons-to-syrias-kurds-afp/#disqus_thread

par far wrote:The US is going to give the Kurds heavier weapons, this can't sit well with Erdogan "the moron". The Kurds are being used for the same purpose that Isis was going to be used for, get a pipeline to Europe to undermine Russia.

https://southfront.org/trump-administration-to-provide-heavier-weapons-to-syrias-kurds-afp/#disqus_thread

You mean Kurdish enabled pipeline that gives Kurds geopolitical influence and that has to go trough Turkey? Good luck with that.

Provided Turks allow them to keep performing biological functions after Raqqa falls. All it takes is a phone call to Ankara, maybe not even that...

Those frontlines...

PapaDragon wrote:

par far wrote:The US is going to give the Kurds heavier weapons, this can't sit well with Erdogan "the moron". The Kurds are being used for the same purpose that Isis was going to be used for, get a pipeline to Europe to undermine Russia.

https://southfront.org/trump-administration-to-provide-heavier-weapons-to-syrias-kurds-afp/#disqus_thread

You mean Kurdish enabled pipeline that gives Kurds geopolitical influence and that has to go trough Turkey? Good luck with that.

Provided Turks allow them to keep performing biological functions after Raqqa falls. All it takes is a phone call to Ankara, maybe not even that...

Hopefully you are right.

Taken from the comments made on South front by Miguel Redondo:

Well, lets put some pieces together....

Gazprom begins Turkish Stream pipeline construction

https://www.rt.com/business...

Turkey warns US against arming Syrian Kurd ‘terrorists,’ ponders end of ‘strategic partnership’

https://www.rt.com/news/387...

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION APPROVES NEW PLAN TO ARM KURDISH FORCES

......

For me the picture is clear

Erdogan is changeing sides and has a new deal with Vladimir Putin. With "Turkish Stream" and Gazprom he has his desired pipeline for gas to supply Europe. He doesn´t need anymore the qatari solution. The same pipeline can be used also for persian gas when the war in Syria is over.
On the other hand Trump has openly let him hung to dry with his arm supplies to the kurds.

I think Erdogan wants to become a member of the Moskow-Teheran-Damascus Axis.

2013 vs 2017

Another load of 'stuff' on its way south on the Syrian Express. Looks fully loaded.

is she loaded with civilian or military gear (or both)? are those ships support by Russian naval vessels enroute?

calm wrote:Those frontlines...

starting to make real headway now...long may it continue.

par far wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

par far wrote:The US is going to give the Kurds heavier weapons, this can't sit well with Erdogan "the moron". The Kurds are being used for the same purpose that Isis was going to be used for, get a pipeline to Europe to undermine Russia.

https://southfront.org/trump-administration-to-provide-heavier-weapons-to-syrias-kurds-afp/#disqus_thread

You mean Kurdish enabled pipeline that gives Kurds geopolitical influence and that has to go trough Turkey? Good luck with that.

Provided Turks allow them to keep performing biological functions after Raqqa falls. All it takes is a phone call to Ankara, maybe not even that...

Hopefully you are right.

Taken from the comments made on South front by Miguel Redondo:

Well, lets put some pieces together....

Gazprom begins Turkish Stream pipeline construction

https://www.rt.com/business...

Turkey warns US against arming Syrian Kurd ‘terrorists,’ ponders end of ‘strategic partnership’

https://www.rt.com/news/387...

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION APPROVES NEW PLAN TO ARM KURDISH FORCES

......

For me the picture is clear

Erdogan is changeing sides and has a new deal with Vladimir Putin. With "Turkish Stream" and Gazprom he has his desired pipeline for gas to supply Europe. He doesn´t need anymore the qatari solution. The same pipeline can be used also for persian gas when the war in Syria is over.
On the other hand Trump has openly let him hung to dry with his arm supplies to the kurds.

I think Erdogan wants to become a member of the Moskow-Teheran-Damascus Axis.

Holla when a referendum to exit NATO hits Turkey. That will require a precursor - hard to say what would constitute as such. The window of opportunity after the coup is long over - that gave Erdogan the referendum on presidential powers. Can be hardly milked for more.

If a NATO exit happens via executive power (no public referendum), with or without a strong precursor....boy......Erdo better be ready for what comes next. So in essence.... I can hardly see this happening. I do think boy Erdo knows, like anyone not dumb or stupid that the Kurds are an existential threat to modern Turkey. Hard to say if the continuous begging to their master (U.S) to drop the Kurds will work. Maybe Papa is right in that the U.S will drop the Kurds after Raqqa but I don't think the U.S would go toward such lengths just for a PR exercise ("destroy ISIS") in Syria. That's not what fuels Washington - it never has, it never will - there is always a strategic, geopolitical objective (of which there are many when it comes to backing the Kurds for the U.S). That's why Turkey is begging - because it fears backstabbing and doesn't believe a word that comes out of the U.S - no assurance will please them, only verifiable actions. What an "ally" to have eh? The irony of it all is astounding. Turkey/Erdogan fearing the same fate of Syria - by the will of its master, if it doesn't comply like a good old dog. The coup beign such a refresher of what could happen fresh in Erdo's mind. I can imagine the horror of some of Turkish leadership going to bed at night.

I would say it serves Turkey right for selling out during the cold war and for being on-board the Syria slaughter, the covert backing of Chechen rebels/radicals etc.... but the strategic side of me knows the importance of Turkey on the chessboard and why it matters to have it flip intact and not in a diseased state, splintered and destroyed by conflict.

Anything that gives Kurds autonomy = example for Turkish Kurds to emulate, draw inspiration from, work towards inside Turkey. Not only that, it could be a tool used by the U.S to strengthen its grip on Turkey or set it on chaos if it's no longer salvageable as a NATO ally - which is how the U.S operates textbook - divide and conquer (in this case the Turkish society). Just picture the horror of western MSM: "Ethnic cleansing of Kurds by dictator Erdogan" - such a sweet sound - the sound of a color revolution/military intervention/political/social destabilization/coup attempt/diplomatic isolation/economic sanctions/warfare/information warfare.......the script writes itself. Ethnic cleansing being of course the terms used to describe the crackdown on violent Kurdish groups (resulting in deaths) pushing the disintegration agenda (under the auspices for human rights) with covert backing from foreign states (U.S) with a defined objective inside Turkey. Imagine all the work the NGO's will have - field day.

In this Turkish-Kurd spat I've noticed that Turkey is always publicly pushing the campaign against the U.S for its support of the Kurds, not specifically the Russian support. Might lead me to believe Russian support is superficial for PR (and everyone in the know-knows about it) cause I'm in the camp that says Russians aren't happy either that the Kurds are pushing for autonomy - not only does it splinter Syria but also sets a precedent. The only calculus I see as to why Russia would support this is as a settlement with the U.S to end the conflict - which, IMO, if the Turks sabotage - it should be more than welcomed in Russia. In that scenario, the U.S would only have to blame herself for trying to chew too much at the expense of "an ally". That serious challenge from the Turks seems to not be coming - the bombings were a small drop of poop in the desert. Russia's calculus might be simple = a deal with the U.S to end the conflict is better than no deal at all. It's also not worth it for Russia to do Turkish's bidding with regards to the Kurds unless Turkey gives something in return = out of NATO (until that doesn't happen - a deal with the U.S is the realistic outcome).

Maybe I'm wrong and I'm just not exposed to Turkish press releases when it comes to Russian support for the Kurds.

Also of note is Trump doing the merry go around trip in the M.E (Israel, Saudi Arabia) but not visiting Turkey. Everyone remember?

crod wrote:is she loaded with civilian or military gear (or both)? are those ships support by Russian naval vessels enroute?

No way of telling what is in the containers. Could well be a mix and it is likely, given what is happening in Syria atm, that there will be a lot of humanitarian aid on that particular ship. Note the large number of half size containers that would be easy to move round the country.

All the supply ships seem to travel on their own, only occasionally do a pair travel together. So far there has been no photo evidence of RuN escorts for any ship on the Syrian Express, RuN operated or not. Whether they are escorted at sea is unknown.

Not fresh but whatever:

SAA advances 65km on Damascus-Tannf highway, 100km left for SAA to reach Tannf border crossing

https://twitter.com/hamza_780/status/862658185194287104

MILITARY SITUATION IN RAQQAH COUNTRYSIDE ON MAY 12, 2017 (MAP UPDATE)

This map provides a general look at the military situation in the Raqqah countryside on May 12, 2017.


Source: https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-raqqah-countryside-on-may-12-2017-map-update/

Syrian Army and Allies liberate AL-Muhaded mounts East of ZAZA checkpoints in Damascus - Bagdad Road pic.twitter.com/XeNk8AyvAe

https://mobile.twitter.com/MIG29_/status/862994785098924032





#SAA from #Zaza checkpoint recently captured on #Damascus-#Baghdad highway pic.twitter.com/5n93IKDcrV

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/863027742580887552

Given current SAA advance rate, reaching the Iraqi border seems like a long shot. Will reaching the border help Deir Ez-Zor? Why not concentrate absolutely all elite units to advance on East Alleppo and to Deir Ezzor?

KomissarBojanchev wrote:Given current SAA advance rate, reaching the Iraqi border seems like a long shot. Will reaching the border help Deir Ez-Zor? Why not concentrate absolutely all elite units to advance on East Alleppo and to Deir Ezzor?

Maybe the SAA will now turn left away from the border having cut the supply road. Or maybe the objective is to join up with the PMU at the border and move northeast together on both sides of the border. Time will tell.

SAA Tiger Forces liberate Al-Jarrah air base in eastern Aleppo CS

https://mobile.twitter.com/MIG29_/status/863124933836234752


Map:

franco wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:Given current SAA advance rate, reaching the Iraqi border seems like a long shot. Will reaching the border help Deir Ez-Zor? Why not concentrate absolutely all elite units to advance on East Alleppo and to Deir Ezzor?

Maybe the SAA will now turn left away from the border having cut the supply road. Or maybe the objective is to join up with the PMU at the border and move northeast together on both sides of the border. Time will tell.

All out push back of ISIS to the Euphrates, have seen some Syrian reports of a 4 phase offense. Phase 1 basically removes ISIS from the provinces of Aleppo, Hamas and Hom's.

What Phase are we on now, it feels like nothing is happening for the SAA. They need to begin the offensive on Deir Ezzor has to begin soon, they need to make significant progress in Southern Syria.

par far wrote:

franco wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:Given current SAA advance rate, reaching the Iraqi border seems like a long shot. Will reaching the border help Deir Ez-Zor? Why not concentrate absolutely all elite units to advance on East Alleppo and to Deir Ezzor?

Maybe the SAA will now turn left away from the border having cut the supply road. Or maybe the objective is to join up with the PMU at the border and move northeast together on both sides of the border. Time will tell.

All out push back of ISIS to the Euphrates, have seen some Syrian reports of a 4 phase offense. Phase 1 basically removes ISIS from the provinces of Aleppo, Hamas and Hom's.

What Phase are we on now, it feels like nothing is happening for the SAA. They need to begin the offensive on Deir Ezzor has to begin soon, they need to make significant progress in Southern Syria.

Assuming the SAA can do this and make it to Deir Ezzor without any opposition group wanting to take advantage of such thin lines, they will have little manpower left at that point that they can spare and it would neuter any ability for anymore large-scale offenses unless Assad suddenly got like 60k more men

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

par far wrote:

franco wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:Given current SAA advance rate, reaching the Iraqi border seems like a long shot. Will reaching the border help Deir Ez-Zor? Why not concentrate absolutely all elite units to advance on East Alleppo and to Deir Ezzor?

Maybe the SAA will now turn left away from the border having cut the supply road. Or maybe the objective is to join up with the PMU at the border and move northeast together on both sides of the border. Time will tell.

All out push back of ISIS to the Euphrates, have seen some Syrian reports of a 4 phase offense. Phase 1 basically removes ISIS from the provinces of Aleppo, Hamas and Hom's.

What Phase are we on now, it feels like nothing is happening for the SAA. They need to begin the offensive on Deir Ezzor has to begin soon, they need to make significant progress in Southern Syria.

Assuming the SAA can do this and make it to Deir Ezzor without any opposition group wanting to take advantage of such thin lines, they will have little manpower left at that point that they can spare and it would neuter any ability for anymore large-scale offenses unless Assad suddenly got like 60k more men

The point you make is directly linked to the SAA eliminating pockets of terrorists in the west by negotiation, with little or no loss of SAA troops, releasing them for use elsewhere. Keeping small areas contained can be a very necessary but inefficient use of manpower. This is part of the power of being a State, the ability to redeploy relatively easily from one front to another. We see very little about attacks on these military convoys moving around, juicy targets for guerilla type actions. This is incidently pretty positive for the future as there does not appear to be much appetite for that kind of activity once areas are reclaimed by the Government.

I am looking forward to the day when the Tiger forces, sweeping down the west bank of the Euphrates, meet their fellow anti ISIS fighters, the SDF, somewhere around Tabqa and, after thanking them profusely for all their work, asking them very politely to go home as the Government is now taking back control.

EDIT

Interesting tweet, maybe a little optimistic on the 'generalised' front

Wael Al Hussaini‏ @WaelHussaini 14h14 hours ago

The #SDF will hand over #AlTabqah dam to the #Syrian government & it'll be guarded by the #SAA ,this case will be generalized to all #Syria

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:30 A.M.) – The Islamic State (ISIL) forces in the Maskanah Plain of east Aleppo launched a counter-attack to recapture the strategic Jirah Military Airport last night.

ISIL began the counter-attack at 10:00 P.M. (Damascus Time) last night, striking the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) unfortified positions at the southeastern corridor of the Jirah Airbase; this resulted in the terrorist group briefly entering the installation.

According to a military source in Aleppo, intense clashes are still ongoing at the Jirah Airbase; however, the Syrian Arab Army still maintains a territorial advantage against the Islamic State militants.

The Jirah Airbase was captured by the Syrian Arab Army on Friday afternoon, marking the first time since early 2013 that they have had any presence at this installation in east Aleppo.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isil-launches-counter-attack-recapture-lost-airbase-east-aleppo/

So the fight goes on to the death


Ivan Sidorenko‏ @IvanSidorenko1 5h5 hours ago

#Syria #Damascus #Syrian Reporter in Damascus Says Militants who are trapped in last 15% of #Qaboun #Kaboun #kABOON rejected reconciliation

watanisy‏ @watanisy 4h4 hours ago

army advance in qaboun and captured the largest tunnel qaboun-irbeen which used to cross cars armored vehicles


EDIT

Well, that was short and sharp!


NDF‏ @NatDefFor 18m18 minutes ago
Replying to @NatDefFor

Syrian Army reportedly took control of #Qaboun / #Damascus
Huge victory for #SAA

Eyad Alhosain‏ @AboZain6 12m12 minutes ago

Breaking:
Syrian Army has full control of #AlQaboun district in #Damascus

Peto Lucem‏ @PetoLucem 31m31 minutes ago

NEW MAP: #SAA captured #Jirah airbase in E-#Aleppo from #ISIS, #SDF is advancing towards #IslamicState capital #Raqqah. #Syria