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    Armenia civil unrest

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  Guest on Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:51 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:Twitter is abuzz with rumors that the police will try to disperse the protesters very soon...

    The same rumours were constantly flying on Maidan twitters, very rarely amounting to anything (and when they did - only by co-incidence) - as a means of increasing agitation and anger among the protestors.
    And it looks like exactly that happened again with the police showing up and not confronting the protesters. If the police acted yesterday morning they could have easily ended the movement for good when the protesters were the fewest in number leaving behind the most dedicated and most extreme protesters behind. Hell, even the most extreme of those protesters on Twitter were ready to accept that their movement was about to end. From an armchair general opinion, I am very disappointed that the police didn't act.

    In very related news, there has been word the protesters that are left (the most hardcore ones) are organizing themselves in groups now. Groups in Ukraine were formed on the Maidan in the same way. A notable group from there is none other than Right Sector. And just as people slowly rallied around Right Sector a year ago, the protesters numbers are growing again.
    par far wrote:This is a maidan, hopefully Russi offers asstiance to the Armenian government(provide them with loans or something), if Russia does not act now, then Russia is going to lose Armenia the same way as Russia lost Ukraine.
    Russia literally did the exact same thing for Yanukovich's government and that sure helped a lot didn't it.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:06 am

    Do you know how many are protesting now?  Has it dropped below the 1000 mark?

    Reason why they are holding out from arresting anyone en mass is to see how far these protestors will go.  I imagine as soon as the hooligans (these foreign funded provocateurs) start doing anything, they then will act.

    I am unsure as to how you are saying it, but are you saying that Right Sector is currently working in Armenia?
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:28 am

    Protesters in Yerevan expelled from the meeting of two drunk people

    Apparently there was negotiations so the moderate and radical protestors are going to talk it over and we will hear something tomorrow or so. My bet is the Radicals wont accept it, so they can get arrested for all anyone cares.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:34 am

    Activists stop a demonstration in Yerevan's Freedom square

    Activists numbers are extremely low. In some place, about 30 people. They will be bringing in lawyers and economists to come up with a counter proposal it seems to the government.

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  Guest on Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:55 am

    sepheronx wrote:Do you know how many are protesting now?  Has it dropped below the 1000 mark?

    Reason why they are holding out from arresting anyone en mass is to see how far these protestors will go.  I imagine as soon as the hooligans (these foreign funded provocateurs) start doing anything, they then will act.

    I am unsure as to how you are saying it, but are you saying that Right Sector is currently working in Armenia?
    Because I am finished with all my studies ahead of time I had a lot of free time most of which was wasted looking for new info on Twitter and trying to watch decent livestreams. From what I can make of it, there are protesters on the Freedom Square and on the other street. Their numbers are now upward of a 1000 people combined. I heard they got as low as only 300 people early yesterday morning (no problem for the size of the police contingent there). Again as I see it, if the police wanted to end it, they should have done it yesterday morning.

    I see it as indecisiveness from the government side. The Armenian Government might not to provoke a response like Maidan, but the longer they wait, the more powerful and entrenched the protesters will get. Mind you, Yanukovich's indecisiveness to deal with the Maidan from the start also brought around his downfall.

    I didn't exactly mean that Right Sector is active in Yerevan (yet). I was talking about how the protesters at Yerevan are organizing themselves into more effective groups.

    Back in 2013/2014 after the initial protests in Ukraine, the protesters also organized themselves into more effective groups. One of the most effective, extreme, and influential groups to be formed in Ukraine was Right Sector. What I meant here was that there is the possibility that a group similar to Right Sector may rise in Yerevan very soon.

    But if what you said would not color me surprised at all. Thanks to all the talks of brotherhood between Armenian protesters and Ukraine. I could see veterans from the Maidan working as advisors (like how US Special Forces advise other armies) on the streets of Yerevan.

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  par far on Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:21 pm

    Is Russia doing anything to help the Armenian government?
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:22 pm

    par far wrote:Is Russia doing anything to help the Armenian government?

    Maybe advice. Outside of that, they dont need to. Seems like protests are dwindling down and already there is talk of compromise.

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  Guest on Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:50 pm

    During the day not a lot of people are protesting and who can blame them when the temperature is hitting 30+ C. There are a lot more people out at night.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Jun 30, 2015 9:55 pm

    http://tass.ru/en/world/805050

    I have been telling you people.

    Anyway, while the tarrifs will be covered by government and protest coordinators have called off the protests, there are still people there, provoking the police. Protest against electricity prices? Yeah right.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  kvs on Wed Jul 01, 2015 6:01 am

    sepheronx wrote:http://tass.ru/en/world/805050

    I have been telling you people.

    Anyway, while the tarrifs will be covered by government and protest coordinators have called off the protests, there are still people there, provoking the police. Protest against electricity prices? Yeah right.

    Any pretext to get the rent-a-crowd into the streets. Then take it form there.

    This is why the police are restrained. But I doubt that Armenia is split like Ukraine so the central government will crack down
    if militants take over the protest. Also, I doubt that there are any Right Sector analogues in Armenia. So the government will
    not even have to crackdown.

    However, I still say that street blocking protestors should be tear gassed and arrested.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Jul 01, 2015 8:03 am

    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:http://tass.ru/en/world/805050

    I have been telling you people.

    Anyway, while the tarrifs will be covered by government and protest coordinators have called off the protests, there are still people there, provoking the police. Protest against electricity prices? Yeah right.

    Any pretext to get the rent-a-crowd into the streets.   Then take it form there.

    This is why the police are restrained.   But I doubt that Armenia is split like Ukraine so the central government will crack down
    if militants take over the protest.   Also, I doubt that there are any Right Sector analogues in Armenia.   So the government will
    not even have to crackdown.  

    However, I still say that street blocking protestors should be tear gassed and arrested.  

    I also think so, as there were no anti Russian slogans what so ever during this. I cannot blame the Russians for being cautious about this though as well, since recent events.

    I have trust in Armenian government.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Jul 01, 2015 8:18 am

    Street protests against electricity prices continue in Armenia’s Yerevan for ninth day

    This is pretty much over

    About 200 protesters remain in the center of Yerevan, they make cleaning
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    TheArmenian

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  TheArmenian on Wed Jul 01, 2015 10:44 am

    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:http://tass.ru/en/world/805050

    I have been telling you people.

    Anyway, while the tarrifs will be covered by government and protest coordinators have called off the protests, there are still people there, provoking the police. Protest against electricity prices? Yeah right.

    Any pretext to get the rent-a-crowd into the streets.   Then take it form there.

    This is why the police are restrained.   But I doubt that Armenia is split like Ukraine so the central government will crack down
    if militants take over the protest.   Also, I doubt that there are any Right Sector analogues in Armenia.   So the government will
    not even have to crackdown.  

    However, I still say that street blocking protestors should be tear gassed and arrested.  

    The bolded part is all correct.

    The protestors are now split into two groups:

    -The logical, intelligent real patriots who have moved the protests to another location as the government suggested and are negotiating with the government.
    -The die-hard self-destructive anarchist hooligans who are still blocking the Bagramyan avenue and are still not listening to the police. These are the dangerous elements.

    Instead of removing them by force, the government is now trying to discredit the second group (they are discrediting themselves anyways).

    Still keeping an eye on things. I hope we will be out of the woods soon.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  Captain Nemo on Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:31 pm

    On a Croatian forum, someone following the tweets of the protesters in Armenia found out that at the time of the day when there should be the most activity in Armenia, there were very few tweets, but "Armenian" tweeting boomed the most during USA working hours...

    Strange... Wink
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:07 pm

    TheArmenian wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:http://tass.ru/en/world/805050

    I have been telling you people.

    Anyway, while the tarrifs will be covered by government and protest coordinators have called off the protests, there are still people there, provoking the police. Protest against electricity prices? Yeah right.

    Any pretext to get the rent-a-crowd into the streets.   Then take it form there.

    This is why the police are restrained.   But I doubt that Armenia is split like Ukraine so the central government will crack down
    if militants take over the protest.   Also, I doubt that there are any Right Sector analogues in Armenia.   So the government will
    not even have to crackdown.  

    However, I still say that street blocking protestors should be tear gassed and arrested.  

    The bolded part is all correct.

    The protestors are now split into two groups:

    -The logical, intelligent real patriots who have moved the protests to another location as the government suggested and are negotiating with the government.
    -The die-hard self-destructive anarchist hooligans who are still blocking the Bagramyan avenue and are still not listening to the police. These are the dangerous elements.

    Instead of removing them by force, the government is now trying to discredit the second group (they are discrediting themselves anyways).

    Still keeping an eye on things. I hope we will be out of the woods soon.

    I heard that the hooligan side is very disorganized. I imagine once a deal is brokered with the one group, all that will be left are the hooligans, which the government will deal with promptly. That is my guess.

    Numbers seemd quite low from articles I posted. Do you have any figures?

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  Guest on Wed Jul 01, 2015 6:01 pm

    Captain Nemo wrote:On a Croatian forum, someone following the tweets of the protesters in Armenia found out that at the time of the day when there should be the most activity in Armenia, there were very few tweets, but "Armenian" tweeting boomed the most during USA working hours...

    Strange... Wink
    I'm not so sure that is too strange. During the day it gets very hot outside (over 30 centigrade at times) so not a lot of people are outside and I am sure that the ones that have jobs are at work. Most people come out during the night to protests and it also becomes more of a party atmosphere, a social occasion people can look forward to at the end of the day.

    Strangely enough, a tactic that US NGOs used in past protests of the Color revolutions and Arab Spring revolutions is to make it seem like a party and make an atmosphere people want to be in. If you watch videos of the Maidan, Egypt, or etc. the protesters in the middle were not angry but rather they were nearly always happy or even celebrating.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Jul 01, 2015 7:00 pm

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    Captain Nemo wrote:On a Croatian forum, someone following the tweets of the protesters in Armenia found out that at the time of the day when there should be the most activity in Armenia, there were very few tweets, but "Armenian" tweeting boomed the most during USA working hours...

    Strange... Wink
    I'm not so sure that is too strange. During the day it gets very hot outside (over 30 centigrade at times) so not a lot of people are outside and I am sure that the ones that have jobs are at work. Most people come out during the night to protests and it also becomes more of a party atmosphere, a social occasion people can look forward to at the end of the day.

    Strangely enough, a tactic that US NGOs used in past protests of the Color revolutions and Arab Spring revolutions is to make it seem like a party and make an atmosphere people want to be in. If you watch videos of the Maidan, Egypt, or etc. the protesters in the middle were not angry but rather they were nearly always happy or even celebrating.

    Just to attract people so it becomes something else on TV news.

    That said, it really isnt attracting many people anymore. 300 or so.

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  Guest on Wed Jul 01, 2015 8:32 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    Captain Nemo wrote:On a Croatian forum, someone following the tweets of the protesters in Armenia found out that at the time of the day when there should be the most activity in Armenia, there were very few tweets, but "Armenian" tweeting boomed the most during USA working hours...

    Strange... Wink
    I'm not so sure that is too strange. During the day it gets very hot outside (over 30 centigrade at times) so not a lot of people are outside and I am sure that the ones that have jobs are at work. Most people come out during the night to protests and it also becomes more of a party atmosphere, a social occasion people can look forward to at the end of the day.

    Strangely enough, a tactic that US NGOs used in past protests of the Color revolutions and Arab Spring revolutions is to make it seem like a party and make an atmosphere people want to be in. If you watch videos of the Maidan, Egypt, or etc. the protesters in the middle were not angry but rather they were nearly always happy or even celebrating.

    Just to attract people so it becomes something else on TV news.

    That said, it really isnt attracting many people anymore. 300 or so.
    Right now there has to be more than 300 people. Here is a livestream of the site.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  kvs on Thu Jul 02, 2015 4:31 am

    http://eap-csf.eu/en/news-events/news/steering-committee-condemns-illegal-actions-against-protesters-in-yerevan/

    Can you believe this above shit? It's surreal. If protestors tried to pull the same behaviour in Canada or the USA there
    would be a total crackdown like there was during the G8/G20 meeting in 2010 in Toronto where 10,000 cops were sent in
    to pacify any protests. The Occupy Wall Street movement got US police brutality full force. Yet here we have some
    BS "civil society" psyop clowns making up fiction about the legitimate, duly elected government of Armenia claiming it is
    wrong doing when it is actually standing by and doing next to nothing. Water cannons are NOT indications of brutality.
    They are used routinely in the EU (Spain, Greece, etc.).

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  Rodinazombie on Thu Jul 02, 2015 11:14 am

    So this is winding down now?

    Glad it didnt go the way some of us feared it could have done, though i fear some seeds have been sown and certain organisations will be using as much fertilizer as possible to help it grow.

    CIS countries need to look at what happened on maidan and take lessons from it. I do fear that the 'stans' will be needing democracy soon to undermine russias southers flank.

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  Guest on Thu Jul 02, 2015 12:02 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:So this is winding down now?

    Glad it didnt go the way some of us feared it could have done, though i fear some seeds have been sown and certain organisations will be using as much fertilizer as possible to help it grow.

    CIS countries need to look at what happened on maidan and take lessons from it. I do fear that the 'stans' will be needing democracy soon to undermine russias southers flank.
    While I hope that is true, I think it is very important to know that people said the same thing about Ukraine in late December 2013 and they said it again in late January of 2014. The next phase of protests following both of those dates were far worse than the previous phases.

    Looking over the livestream, the protesters were around the 1000 mark during the night and the barricades are still standing. As long as the barricades are there, there will be some of the seasoned CIA rent-a-rioters and some Western butt-licking folk as well.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Jul 02, 2015 8:28 pm

    1000 people is nothing compared to what there was at the start. Plus the government has been proactive in helping the protestors whom were on a hunger strike. As well, it seems that other commanders of protestors have stepped down.

    Armenian governments policy of letting them protest, mixed with holding their stance and also meeting part way, seems to have worked so far.
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Jul 03, 2015 1:08 am

    Even if the protestors were 30,000 strong right now it would mean little. Such protests are doomed to failure.

    They must be led with revolution in mind and they must have allies among the economic/political elite of the country (which in turn will help them with media coverage, money and so on).

    In this case it was just a bunch of protestors, mostly disgruntled people but few had a mind for any radical changes or government overthrow - at best it was just a small ideological core of pro-EU people in the high-levels of organization and so on - but that's not near enough.
    The protest was focussed around several key issues - and once the govenrment agreed to meet some of the demands, that was enough for most people.
    There was no determined Right Sektor-esque groups pouring gasoline on the fire or anything of the sort.

    In terms of support inside the power structures - it was simply non-existant. A protest movement cannot hope to elicit serious change without taking advantage of internal tensions, rivalries, etc... amongst the elite.
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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  flamming_python on Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:00 pm

    I'll just leave this here

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    Re: Armenia civil unrest

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:25 pm

    flamming_python wrote:I'll just leave this here


    Good, it looks like the NGO financed provocateurs are being expelled, and the 'REAL' protesters, who are level-headed and with genuine concerns are being represented. It's looks like George Soros failed here.

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