Armenian civil unrest 2015/16

flamming_python wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:Twitter is abuzz with rumors that the police will try to disperse the protesters very soon...

The same rumours were constantly flying on Maidan twitters, very rarely amounting to anything (and when they did - only by co-incidence) - as a means of increasing agitation and anger among the protestors.

And it looks like exactly that happened again with the police showing up and not confronting the protesters. If the police acted yesterday morning they could have easily ended the movement for good when the protesters were the fewest in number leaving behind the most dedicated and most extreme protesters behind. Hell, even the most extreme of those protesters on Twitter were ready to accept that their movement was about to end. From an armchair general opinion, I am very disappointed that the police didn't act.

In very related news, there has been word the protesters that are left (the most hardcore ones) are organizing themselves in groups now. Groups in Ukraine were formed on the Maidan in the same way. A notable group from there is none other than Right Sector. And just as people slowly rallied around Right Sector a year ago, the protesters numbers are growing again.

par far wrote:This is a maidan, hopefully Russi offers asstiance to the Armenian government(provide them with loans or something), if Russia does not act now, then Russia is going to lose Armenia the same way as Russia lost Ukraine.

Russia literally did the exact same thing for Yanukovich's government and that sure helped a lot didn't it.

sepheronx wrote:Do you know how many are protesting now?  Has it dropped below the 1000 mark?

Reason why they are holding out from arresting anyone en mass is to see how far these protestors will go.  I imagine as soon as the hooligans (these foreign funded provocateurs) start doing anything, they then will act.

I am unsure as to how you are saying it, but are you saying that Right Sector is currently working in Armenia?

Because I am finished with all my studies ahead of time I had a lot of free time most of which was wasted looking for new info on Twitter and trying to watch decent livestreams. From what I can make of it, there are protesters on the Freedom Square and on the other street. Their numbers are now upward of a 1000 people combined. I heard they got as low as only 300 people early yesterday morning (no problem for the size of the police contingent there). Again as I see it, if the police wanted to end it, they should have done it yesterday morning.

I see it as indecisiveness from the government side. The Armenian Government might not to provoke a response like Maidan, but the longer they wait, the more powerful and entrenched the protesters will get. Mind you, Yanukovich's indecisiveness to deal with the Maidan from the start also brought around his downfall.

I didn't exactly mean that Right Sector is active in Yerevan (yet). I was talking about how the protesters at Yerevan are organizing themselves into more effective groups.

Back in 2013/2014 after the initial protests in Ukraine, the protesters also organized themselves into more effective groups. One of the most effective, extreme, and influential groups to be formed in Ukraine was Right Sector. What I meant here was that there is the possibility that a group similar to Right Sector may rise in Yerevan very soon.

But if what you said would not color me surprised at all. Thanks to all the talks of brotherhood between Armenian protesters and Ukraine. I could see veterans from the Maidan working as advisors (like how US Special Forces advise other armies) on the streets of Yerevan.

Is Russia doing anything to help the Armenian government?

During the day not a lot of people are protesting and who can blame them when the temperature is hitting 30+ C. There are a lot more people out at night.

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://tass.ru/en/world/805050

I have been telling you people.

Anyway, while the tarrifs will be covered by government and protest coordinators have called off the protests, there are still people there, provoking the police. Protest against electricity prices? Yeah right.

Any pretext to get the rent-a-crowd into the streets.   Then take it form there.

This is why the police are restrained.   But I doubt that Armenia is split like Ukraine so the central government will crack down
if militants take over the protest.   Also, I doubt that there are any Right Sector analogues in Armenia.   So the government will
not even have to crackdown.  

However, I still say that street blocking protestors should be tear gassed and arrested.  

The bolded part is all correct.

The protestors are now split into two groups:

-The logical, intelligent real patriots who have moved the protests to another location as the government suggested and are negotiating with the government.
-The die-hard self-destructive anarchist hooligans who are still blocking the Bagramyan avenue and are still not listening to the police. These are the dangerous elements.

Instead of removing them by force, the government is now trying to discredit the second group (they are discrediting themselves anyways).

Still keeping an eye on things. I hope we will be out of the woods soon.

On a Croatian forum, someone following the tweets of the protesters in Armenia found out that at the time of the day when there should be the most activity in Armenia, there were very few tweets, but "Armenian" tweeting boomed the most during USA working hours...

Strange...

Captain Nemo wrote:On a Croatian forum, someone following the tweets of the protesters in Armenia found out that at the time of the day when there should be the most activity in Armenia, there were very few tweets, but "Armenian" tweeting boomed the most during USA working hours...

Strange...

I'm not so sure that is too strange. During the day it gets very hot outside (over 30 centigrade at times) so not a lot of people are outside and I am sure that the ones that have jobs are at work. Most people come out during the night to protests and it also becomes more of a party atmosphere, a social occasion people can look forward to at the end of the day.

Strangely enough, a tactic that US NGOs used in past protests of the Color revolutions and Arab Spring revolutions is to make it seem like a party and make an atmosphere people want to be in. If you watch videos of the Maidan, Egypt, or etc. the protesters in the middle were not angry but rather they were nearly always happy or even celebrating.

sepheronx wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Captain Nemo wrote:On a Croatian forum, someone following the tweets of the protesters in Armenia found out that at the time of the day when there should be the most activity in Armenia, there were very few tweets, but "Armenian" tweeting boomed the most during USA working hours...

Strange...

I'm not so sure that is too strange. During the day it gets very hot outside (over 30 centigrade at times) so not a lot of people are outside and I am sure that the ones that have jobs are at work. Most people come out during the night to protests and it also becomes more of a party atmosphere, a social occasion people can look forward to at the end of the day.

Strangely enough, a tactic that US NGOs used in past protests of the Color revolutions and Arab Spring revolutions is to make it seem like a party and make an atmosphere people want to be in. If you watch videos of the Maidan, Egypt, or etc. the protesters in the middle were not angry but rather they were nearly always happy or even celebrating.

Just to attract people so it becomes something else on TV news.

That said, it really isnt attracting many people anymore. 300 or so.

Right now there has to be more than 300 people. Here is a livestream of the site.

So this is winding down now?

Glad it didnt go the way some of us feared it could have done, though i fear some seeds have been sown and certain organisations will be using as much fertilizer as possible to help it grow.

CIS countries need to look at what happened on maidan and take lessons from it. I do fear that the 'stans' will be needing democracy soon to undermine russias southers flank.

Rodinazombie wrote:So this is winding down now?

Glad it didnt go the way some of us feared it could have done, though i fear some seeds have been sown and certain organisations will be using as much fertilizer as possible to help it grow.

CIS countries need to look at what happened on maidan and take lessons from it. I do fear that the 'stans' will be needing democracy soon to undermine russias southers flank.

While I hope that is true, I think it is very important to know that people said the same thing about Ukraine in late December 2013 and they said it again in late January of 2014. The next phase of protests following both of those dates were far worse than the previous phases.

Looking over the livestream, the protesters were around the 1000 mark during the night and the barricades are still standing. As long as the barricades are there, there will be some of the seasoned CIA rent-a-rioters and some Western butt-licking folk as well.

Even if the protestors were 30,000 strong right now it would mean little. Such protests are doomed to failure.

They must be led with revolution in mind and they must have allies among the economic/political elite of the country (which in turn will help them with media coverage, money and so on).

In this case it was just a bunch of protestors, mostly disgruntled people but few had a mind for any radical changes or government overthrow - at best it was just a small ideological core of pro-EU people in the high-levels of organization and so on - but that's not near enough.
The protest was focussed around several key issues - and once the govenrment agreed to meet some of the demands, that was enough for most people.
There was no determined Right Sektor-esque groups pouring gasoline on the fire or anything of the sort.

In terms of support inside the power structures - it was simply non-existant. A protest movement cannot hope to elicit serious change without taking advantage of internal tensions, rivalries, etc... amongst the elite.

I'll just leave this here

flamming_python wrote:I'll just leave this here

Good, it looks like the NGO financed provocateurs are being expelled, and the 'REAL' protesters, who are level-headed and with genuine concerns are being represented. It's looks like George Soros failed here.