Chinese Strategic Aviation. To lose, to stay
21.07.2009
Speaking of technical cooperation with China, today very few people left "over" the ability of specialists from the country to copy everything. Perhaps it is this ability at some point allow Chinese, without fundamental research in a particular industry, so to speak, to stay afloat. Although there were parallel bulk purchases of, without which it simply can not do, such as aeronautical engineering. And yet, it's time to engage in independent development occurred. What is Chinese for that in current circumstances, to whom and why do benchmarks? The answer to these questions can demonstrate not only China but also Russia's aviation future.
Aircraft China needs a lot of
The fact that China is extremely important to everything that is connected with the aviation theme, no doubt. Large area, high demand for transport, as well as the big claims made aircraft is extremely relevant. In this regard, as the anecdote to those seen information that the Chinese private airline Spring Airlines intends to start selling "standing" tickets on their flights, which did not fail to inform the "Deutsche Welle". And though the company has just thirteen passenger aircraft, the trend, so to speak, obschekitayskogo scale, manifested here in the best - Celestial require increasing fleet of aircraft.
There is technology, there is a conversation
Nevertheless, the fact remains that China, despite a good start to copy the aircraft and even the licensed assembly does not have much experience in the design, creation and construction of heavy transport, and large passenger aircraft. Plus, pepper in the history of Chinese aviation adds a whole package of problems. If, in this context to speak of Russia as the successor of the Soviet Union, once generously supplying China in aviation, it is "due to" the history of the Chinese clone of the Su-27 is now not very much benefit China is seeking new technologies. While in the past year, the airline "Dry" and expressed readiness to cooperate with colleagues from China in the joint development of civilian aircraft, a breakthrough in the transfer of Russian technology to China that can not be named. The point is that, despite the initial arrangement of "Dry" with a number of Russian aircraft companies to develop SSJ-100, in the end few who have had to take part in a complete set of liner. That is, technologies that were both domestic and left without access to foreign markets. The result is, among other fairly serious reason, apparently, was the occasion for the Chinese frankly tepid reaction to the offer of cooperation.
West, because of U.S. pressure to limit the export of military technology to China, also is not much promising side of technological cooperation. An example of this can be a problem with the equipment of a new transport aircraft Y8F-600 a sufficient number of US-Canadian PW150B engines with British propeller-R408. However, fairness should be noted that European companies do not forget about China than ever, even under the influence of the United States. Cases aviation is no exception. Only in June Concern Airbus has delivered into service its first aircraft, the assembly is fully Chinese. A-320 came down the conveyor in the city of Tianjin, where the first of its kind outside Europe aviakontserna production line, which this year plans to build five aircraft, as follows - 12. In addition, in February Airbus signed an agreement with the Chinese side of the building in the city of Harbin, the production of spare parts for Airbus.
And yet, the Middle Kingdom, except promsborki and its subsequent domestication Western technology, seeks to create its own design hurt, because it is well understood - neither the Europeans nor the Americans are not going to have China involved in the process from beginning to end .
Russia is always in the implications
Experience with the Ukrainians in the Middle Kingdom is still the 90-ies on the entire range antonovskih machines, which became the PRC, as well as legally or illegally produced. Significant in this regard can be considered a contract for the joint development of aircraft Y8F600, which was signed in November 2002 in aviation exhibition AIRSHOW CHINA 2002, held in China's Zhuhai. In this project, the Ukrainian side acted as a partner for the division of risks. The aircraft was developed in China with the participation of leading specialists of "Antonov" in the overall design, aerodynamics, design and durability. In wind tunnel complex Antonov blow model aircraft.
Followed, in December last, in 2008, it was announced that Ukraine and China will develop a military transport aircraft based on hapless Antonov 70, more than 70% of which paid for the creation of Russia, and thus belonged to her. The main difference to be in the form of replacement turbovintoventilyatornyh engines (TVVD) double turbojet. In addition, it is known that China has not asked for Russian participation in the project, which gives every reason to - the new aircraft will be complete copy of AN-70, and will be largely a new development. But there have to make a slight digression. Because if you build a new plane, then certainly with the new engines. And then by Russia, again not to go, because engines in China ... They do not yet learned. Example the recent acquisition of Chinese in Russia 240 D-30 engines to be used for upgrading the H-6K bombers of its own production (based on Soviet-designed Tu-16). Unlikely that this engine will be placed on a new civil aircraft. The point is that this engine does not meet European standards of noise that would not allow aircraft equipped to land in European airports. In short, what is bought, is a purely military products.
As for Ukraine, it is on sale today for the main engines of the aircraft there. Aircraft engines Ukraine are largely developed, and repairs, which has been successful, for example, Luts'k Aircraft Plant Defense Ministry of Ukraine, actually "break" Russia overseas maintenance issues on the motors for the MiG-29 and others.
In this regard, interesting point related to the desire of China back in 2007 at the MAKS-2007 air show in Russia to buy all technical and design documentation for the engine is 5 generation NC-93 for the main planes. So whatever one may say, but apparently, China, kooperiruyas with Ukraine, on any bets on Russian technology.
Ukraine - a country where one can take
As experts say, the reason for the PRC to look more closely, Ukraine has become a problem with the price of the order in Russia 38 IL-76. However, it is only a presumption, because Ukraine today is actually one of the few countries in the world, which has a closed production cycle in the aviation industry (in the first place - transport), starting from design to assembly of finished aircraft. So do not look to it China could not, by definition, already with 90's. If, in fact, the unique position of Ukraine allows to occupy key positions in the markets of third world. But only theoretically, because it is necessary to comply with a number of conditions, including the provision of government support for aviation, which is objectively lacking. As an example - the Ministry of Defense is not the first year can not be ordered for the two aircraft "Antonov". It would seem, are here any foreign buyer must be alert and ten times, all weighed before you throw oneself into the arms of it because, if the Ukrainians themselves do not buy their planes, it appears that these aircraft are not all right. Only China is not all it is made not just finished planes, give them technology and design. Airplanes, he himself will do. Of course, one could buy and all of this country's aviation industry, along with development, the benefit of money from the Chinese eat. Just who exactly would they? Local Ukrainian oligarchs and their patrons in the West still hopes to see Ukraine in NATO. Therefore, China remains the only viable option - adopt the technology and everything to do with myself. But it is a way of existence and is the most popular Chinese. So it all came into resonance.
A unidirectional multi-Chinese aircraft industry
Against this background, it seems logical to look statement news service Sina, made in June, that the first big major Chinese aircraft development up to the sky in 2014. Company to design and build large aircraft C-919 was officially established in China in May last year to eliminate the dependence of the Chinese aviarynka from western manufacturers. But in this case looks rather strange history with the creation of Airbus production line in China's Tianjin and the issuance of A-320 - a direct competitor of Chinese aviation term. Although the time before 2014 is sufficient and who knows what will happen to the European industry. Most likely, all will be strictly parallel - production of the European model, a purely mechanical drag myself to the Ukrainian technologies and, through the Ukraine, Russia's development. And there, quite possibly, with stocks in Tianjin goes something not quite similar to what was originally intended.
New combination. Decide and survive
In any case, it is clear that by 2014 the Middle Kingdom has decided to enter a new stage in the aircraft industry, so the occasional statement that Russia is losing the Chinese market can be considered more likely to stimulate alarmistskih attitudes towards vytorgovyvanie certain preferences within Russia itself. Yes, to some extent, Russia has reduced its influence in the aviation market in China. Only different in the present circumstances could not be just and it must be recognized. The point is that to participate in several projects in Russia aircraft objectively can not - neither the means nor the resources. Therefore, it is a place where really can work, where there is an opportunity to push their products and gaining a foothold on the markets. This project SSJ-100 could be considered the most competitive, even if it is designated to minimize the participation of Russian companies, even incorporated in the solutions are not always the best of what exists in Russia. Most importantly, as well as mechanically as the Celestial in their projects, Russia drag western organizations. What can be inferred that both Russia and China are concerned, in principle, the same problems. The difference is that Chinese want to grow up to the current level of technological development, and Russia to preserve what is possible. That is, at present in the relationship of the aircraft manufacturers actually played a new combination, shifting centers of gravity. And, not necessarily that Russia would be a loser, because she still did not play one against all. But it is now, at least, thanks to its resources, continues to remain afloat. No wonder, a number of Western firms aviation purposes, including the UK, are talking about a possible transfer of production in Russia. So, much will be decided not in the "Russia has lost the Chinese market or not lost", as applied to the phrase "whether or not Russia has maintained its level of development of aeronautical engineering, retained or not the ability to assimilate foreign experience." It is obvious that this approach will be crucial, and energy and all the rest, as they say, only help. Not for nothing is the Celestial continues to participate in the Russo-Chinese Sub-Commission on Cooperation in the field of civil aviation and civil aviation. Moreover, the participation is clearly not formal. So in June, through the work of the Sub-Commission the parties informed each other about the process of restructuring taking place in the aviation industry of Russia and China, the implementation of projects in the field of civil aviation and the measures taken by the governments of both countries to support the industry, and noted the opportunities for deepening mutually beneficial cooperation in this area.
20.07.2009
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