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    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jan 07, 2025 11:13 am

    "Will Trump Really Give Putin $26 Trillion in Ukrainian Resources?" was the headline of a recent Washington Post article.

    Why does the WaPo think Trump will have any say in the matter.

    Most likely he will make his offer and Putin will reject it and he will say it is all the problem of Europe because he has Iran and China to deal with.

    Lindsay Graham claimed it was about 13 trillion and then about 9 trillion not that long ago... where has the added value come from?

    This is exactly what is happening in Ukraine now. Some old guys have come running there, lobbying the interests of Blackrock and Warren Buffett , trying to buy up everything they can get their hands on cheap. And it’s as if they don’t see one simple thing: the overwhelming majority of those deposits they are gaping at are in the east of Ukraine, and every day they are gradually coming under Russian control.

    Even more delicious is that the west seizing Russian assets will allow Russia to seize the assets of the companies buying up cheap resources in the Ukraine... meaning regions in the Ukraine with all their resources bought up by western companies can take those resources back without having to hunt down the officials that took the money those western companies gave to buy those resources and assets super cheap. This is a huge win for Russia and new parts of Russia.

    The neutral part of Ukraine who choose not to become part of Russia can be debt slaves to those western companies... not Russias problem.

    Proves once again how stupid the Americans are.
    Trump owns nothing and has nothing to give.

    They go on about leverage and power in negotiations... they have no power and no leverage in these negotiations because they are not going to stop support for Kiev and they are not going to drop the sanctions against Russia.

    Trump might want to get Putin on side so he can better attack China, but Putin understands how the US works and trusts China and India way more than he trusts the US no matter who is in charge at the moment.

    Trump said all the right things before he was elected the first time and when he got the power he revealed himself to be a bully... threats and sanctions and then comes the talking where he offers to roll back the sanctions in return for an agreement than benefits the US but might not have anything at all for Russia. This makes it easy for Russia to say no... and while those sanctions do damage... they also make Russia a little more independent and stronger and clear in the realisation that its future is with the rest of the world and not with the west.

    Nobody should laugh off deep fake, staged or manipulated videos
    since most people can be fooled by them.

    Fortunately western public opinion has never meant much. Western countries will send money and resources to Ukraine no matter what their sheep think... no one even asks them. Have you had a referendum on such things? Of course you haven't.

    And when it comes time to run away the western public will have no say either... it depends when the people with a financial interest in this conflict decide to cut their losses... the US and western MICs will be making lots of money over the next decade replacing the weapons and ammo stores of HATO... it used to be mostly cheap Soviet era stuff, but now it will be super expensive western crap that they are going to charge top dollar to send and store... and even when fully restored it wont be enough if WWIII ground conflict in Europe actually kicks off... Russia will be far more aggressive at hitting HATO forces than they were at hitting Ukrainian positions... military and civilian.

    Ukraine was a rescue mission. A war against HATO will be exterminating a threat.

    Why be shocked by the fact, that Comrade Kim sent his operators/advisors/observers?
    It works perfectly fine for me.

    It is Kievs propaganda to get SK to send some of its war stocks to Kiev... in fact it is probably in Kims interests to show North Korean troops in Ukraine because sending enormous volumes of weapons and ammo to Kiev will massively weaken South Korea and reduce its readiness the way it has for most HATO countries.

    Of course testing NK ammo and weapons and systems in a combat zone does make sense but sending troops into combat that speak a different language from your troops is never a great idea... you would only do that if you are desperate.... and I don't think they are... but Kiev wants everyone to think that too.

    And who cares?

    First rule of propaganda is never believe them unless there is confirmation from their enemy or proof beyond question... and we have had neither.

    Even the body was strengthened.
    It is much more corrosion resistant because of better steel sheet quality and very fine anticorrosive application.

    Is that the one whose body was made of fibreglass where the body outlasts everything else on the vehicle so they have fields of these vehicles sitting with intact bodies... because they don't rust.

    Why aren't the two rear passengers operating as 'tail gunners'?

    Was going to say... maybe next time.... Laughing

    The Ukrainians removed the ramps from APCs due to issues with the hydraulics in the cold, allowing Russian FPVs to strike directly into the hold.

    So a possible answer to why the Soviets and Russians don't use amazing ramp rear doors like the amazing western countries do... the weather...

    Finnish "experts" like Pekka Kallioniemi, Sari Havren, and and foreign minister Elina Valtonen claim that according to the so-called "blood experience" of Finland, the Finns historical neutrality is "useless" for Ukraine.

    Sucking up to their new US overlords... these comments will certainly earn them some breadcrumbs... perhaps they will get ammunition production contracts?

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:24 pm

    It is Kievs propaganda to get SK to send some of its war stocks to Kiev... in fact it is probably in Kims interests to show North Korean troops in Ukraine because sending enormous volumes of weapons and ammo to Kiev will massively weaken South Korea and reduce its readiness the way it has for most HATO countries.
    Of course testing NK ammo and weapons and systems in a combat zone does make sense but sending troops into combat that speak a different language from your troops is never a great idea... you would only do that if you are desperate.... and I don't think they are... but Kiev wants everyone to think that too.


    Yes it was.
    And it paid off. SK delivered ammunition to the ukrs. The latest revealed were ATACSM with the serial numbers corresponding to the SK owned ones being intercepted.

    And the NK pays off as well, this is the latest :

    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64 - Page 18 Zrzut242

    https://t.me/intelslava/72377

    Freshly delivered Koksan inspected by the Russian soldier.
    I have no doubts that advisers and observers are there as well. And see perfectly zero issues with implementing into the structure a full unit of NK manned artillery.

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    Post  franco Tue Jan 07, 2025 2:37 pm

    Interesting discussion, not sure of the numbers however...

    Poles have calculated - 25 million Ukrainians have left the country

    ⚡About 6.5 million fled to the EU
    ⚡About 9.5 million fled to Russia

    8 million people live in the DPR, LPR, Kherson, Zaporizhia regions, which are under Russian control.

    A million killed. Less than 15 million people remain in Ukraine.

    Failed state.

    https://x.com/SMO_VZ/status/1876320268274303221

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Jan 07, 2025 2:57 pm

    Maybe not 15, but 18 mln might be seriously considered. Below 20, that is pretty clear.
    As soon as drafting 18y/o will be talked about seriously, tens of thousands more will flee.

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    Post  LMFS Tue Jan 07, 2025 3:25 pm

    Less than 15 million people remain in Ukraine.

    Failed state.

    Perfectly possible. Minus long term wounded combatants, minus parasite classes, minus unsuitable age groups, minus critical workers... and the problems with conscription become fully clear and understandable. The cliff may be closer than it seems.

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    Post  JohninMK Tue Jan 07, 2025 7:18 pm

    Some interesting posts in his thread. Including one calculating a bigger population in the new East Ukraine than in the new West Ukraine! https://x.com/SMO_VZ/status/1876320268274303221

    ???????????????????? ????
    @SMO_VZ
    Poles have calculated - 25 million Ukrainians have left the country

    ⚡About 6.5 million fled to the EU
    ⚡About 9.5 million fled to Russia

    8 million people live in the DPR, LPR, Kherson, Zaporizhia regions, which are under Russian control.

    A million killed. Less than 15 million people remain in Ukraine.

    Failed state.

    I have attached a map... print it
    Get your Blue and Orange colouring pens out , and provide your opinion as to what POLAND And BANDERALAND will  be !! I'm sure there's going to be a fight over it.  ...

    RED  of Russia , May have  some extra of a corridor to HUNGARY .... my opinion ..

    ))))))

    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64 - Page 18 GgoHVw_XIAApgPa?format=png&name=360x360

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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Tue Jan 07, 2025 7:22 pm





    Be careful about the so-called "Poles" because they might be from the ruling German-Ukrainian mafia.


    Your numbers fail to account for the fact that a portion of the people who moved out of Ukraine during 2022 has returned.


    Ukraine is such a "failed" state that they are buying out some important business enterprises in Poland. In many instances the new Ukrainian owners fire all the ethnic Poles from their jobs, but they keep the Ukrainians.

    In addition to this they get huge amount of aid from Poland, both Ukraine and the Ukrainians who stay in Poland.


    Ukraine is doing really well for a so-called "failed" state.


    Only one example here:





    Another example of a Ukrainian-owned important business enterprise in Poland is the Gdansk Shipyards, but there are others.




    Ukrainian Businesses Expanding Westwards.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/other/ukrainian-businesses-in-emerging-europe-eye-westward-expansion/ar-AA1x5l7c?ocid=UE07DHP&pc=UE07&cvid=69899a42bdff4f20bd1ab186f72f4a7a&ei=22


    In Poland the real Ukrainian population is probably at least around 3 million.

    Also, Poland and Ukraine are not that culturally similar.


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    Post  LMFS Tue Jan 07, 2025 8:03 pm

    Get your Blue and Orange colouring pens out , and provide your opinion as to what POLAND And BANDERALAND will  be !! I'm sure there's going to be a fight over it.  ...

    RED  of Russia , May have  some extra of a corridor to HUNGARY .... my opinion ..

    Nice exercise Razz

    While nothing is IMHO decided yet, and Putin is certainly not a megalomaniac, there are some maximalist approaches, like the ones voiced by Medvedev, that hold more than one bit of historic truth to them and that could be triggered by the uncompromising views of the ones that will be marked for elimination once the war is over, means the Kiev junta, and the equally unhinged views of the West. If more balanced approaches end up gaining strength, then Russia will need to compromise. But I don't see it will be easy to renounce to Novorrussia, at least.

    Those maximalist feelings existing in Russia include naming Kiev a Russian city (which it was) and not conceding to Poland anything (why to do that, once they have been actively waging a war against Russia), while getting rid of Galicia and possibly other toxic territories (while those were Russian in ancient times, I assume almost everyone agrees that these lands are gone for good). The corridor to Hungary and Slovakia makes full sense, and also the concessions to Romania, if it helps settling the issue in a legal form in some more or less distant future. The same could apply to Poland, but this should not go beyond some very loose association of Galicia under full Russian military control and in exchange for substantial concessions from the Polish side, like land connection to Kaliningrad.

    That being said, we can have any kind of outcome, depending on how stubborn the West behaves. But the possibility that Russia solves their ukie problem for good exists, even when it would not be the most likely result.

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    Post  kvs Tue Jan 07, 2025 10:03 pm

    If the refugees actually number 25 million and we have around 20 million left then in 2021 Ukria had a population of around 45 million. This is wrong.
    The better estimates would put it at 37 million. So either there are 12 million left or the number of refugees is around 17 million. Even this lower
    number seems high to me.

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    Post  The-thing-next-door Tue Jan 07, 2025 10:44 pm

    Nice exercise Razz

    While nothing is IMHO decided yet, and Putin is certainly not a megalomaniac, there are some maximalist approaches, like the ones voiced by Medvedev, that hold more than one bit of historic truth to them and that could be triggered by the uncompromising views of the ones that will be marked for elimination once the war is over, means the Kiev junta, and the equally unhinged views of the West. If more balanced approaches end up gaining strength, then Russia will need to compromise. But I don't see it will be easy to renounce to Novorrussia, at least.

    Those maximalist feelings existing in Russia include naming Kiev a Russian city (which it was) and not conceding to Poland anything (why to do that, once they have been actively waging a war against Russia), while getting rid of Galicia and possibly other toxic territories (while those were Russian in ancient times, I assume almost everyone agrees that these lands are gone for good). The corridor to Hungary and Slovakia makes full sense, and also the concessions to Romania, if it helps settling the issue in a legal form in some more or less distant future. The same could apply to Poland, but this should not go beyond some very loose association of Galicia under full Russian military control and in exchange for substantial concessions from the Polish side, like land connection to Kaliningrad.

    That being said, we can have any kind of outcome, depending on how stubborn the West behaves. But the possibility that Russia solves their ukie problem for good exists, even when it would not be the most likely result.

    And precisely what would Russia gain from gifting Russian land to nato?

    I will never understand where the obsession with giving up most of Ukraine comes from.

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    Post  ucmvulcan Tue Jan 07, 2025 11:29 pm

    If I understand the argument correctly, the reason to not take Ukraine, at least to the Dniepr and building a land bridge to Trans-Dniestr is that doing so would cost a lot more lives. The Paradox is that if the Russians don't take Ukraine to the Dniester and cut them off from the Black Sea then they are going to see the fanatics continue to shell Russian cities and kill Russian civilians.

    In my opinion the Russians should accept no land deal until they reach the Dniepr. The Dniepr is a broad and easiiy defensible water barrier. Anything short of that is a failure.

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    Post  LMFS Tue Jan 07, 2025 11:55 pm

    And precisely what would Russia gain from gifting Russian land to nato?

    I will never understand where the obsession with giving up most of Ukraine comes from.

    What I mean is not even close to what you say. Hungary and Slovakia are friendly to Russia and restoring, partially or totally, the very small territories taken from them after WWII would:
    - Not harm in any way the return of Russian native lands and populations to their homeland
    - Signal limitrophes where the wind is blowing in Eastern Europe now and who can broker beneficial deals for them in case they are sensible, or alternatively finish off their statehood, if they act as suicide drones of the West
    - Help settle the end of former ukraine in a legal way
    - Ensure / diversify the transit of goods to them and other potentially friendly nations in Europe, including Serbia

    Regarding Poland, I am specifically proposing not to reward their enmity towards Russia. But they also are keenly interested in Galicia and any deal that may be presented to nationalistic public and interests as a victory would be very profitable for any political force supporting it, even when it could mean more looks than substance and would imply other concessions that would be more interesting to Russia. Getting a land link to Kaliningrad is much more relevant for Russia than earning Galician Russophobes as citizens. Russia should be open to negotiate over those territories, because it can get rid of a big problem and get important concessions from interested parties in exchange. What should never happen is that:

    - Galicia is used as a springboard of NATO against Russia
    - Russia carries the burden of maintaining that people.

    The result will depend on the decisiveness of the Russian victory in the war for sure
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    Post  LMFS Wed Jan 08, 2025 12:08 am

    The cliff may be closer than it seems.

    MoD has talked today about "operational space", implying that the pace of territorial recovery is set to increase substantially after the liberation of Kurakhovo. But at the same time, we are at an unprecedented time, when many of the crucial bastions of the defensive chain at the front are about to be broken at the same time like an avalanche. Chasov Yar, Toretsk and Belikaya Novoselka come to mind, but even in Kupiansk, Lyman and Seversk the speed of advance has increased manifold in the last few weeks, Krasnoarmeysk is getting encircled and the road to Konstantinovka is under fire threat already for many km. Means, 404 has lost the ability to man the front even at the locations where they traditionally had the upper hand. This is already catastrophic in itself, but once those locations are lost, we will not talk about operational, but strategic consequences for former ukraine

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    Post  Big_Gazza Wed Jan 08, 2025 12:14 am

    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64 - Page 18 7jan2010

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    Post  Big_Gazza Wed Jan 08, 2025 12:15 am

    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64 - Page 18 7jan2011

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    Post  Kiko Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:33 am

    Then no one will win: the West has decided to perish together with Russia, by Kirill Strelnikov for RiaNovosti. 01.08.2025.

    The collective West has always prided itself on its ability to project its will far into the future, with Jesuitical schemes stealthily destroying its enemies from within or from without – with military force.

    However, after Russia's harsh response to the plans to inflict a strategic defeat on us, something in this well-oiled scheme broke down irrevocably, and the previously triumphant plans and predictions like "the end of history" have now deflated to the level of whining of a thug who gets kicked after an unsuccessful attempt to bend his fingers in decent company.

    What did our opponents wish for under the Christmas tree this time?

    According to New Year and Christmas publications in the Western information field, instead of expectations for the coming year such as "a million roses and Russian agents will be planted in the magic garden," there is unbridled pessimism, turning into despair.

    US News: "The risk of high inflation will increase in the US and trade wars with key partners are expected."

    Axios: "America is in for a great shake-up."

    Euronews: "External pressure will increase fragmentation and division between EU members . The desperate political situation in the EU's two largest economies, Germany and France , will leave the EU without strategic leadership."

    SocialEurope: "In a world ruled by Trump and Putin , the EU has no future unless it reconnects with the Global South."

    ECFR (European Council on Foreign Relations): " Europe is expecting a migration explosion (with tenfold flows from Syria and Ukraine ) that will make the figures for 2015 pale in comparison."

    Neue Zürcher Zeitung: "There is no hope for peace in Europe."

    Politico went further than anyone else and invited professional futurologists to make their predictions, who for some reason saw in their crystal balls not Russia’s defeat, but a crisis in the Western stock market, devastating epidemics, global cyber attacks, and large-scale economic wars.

    The most interesting thing is that this is already starting to come true, and how you start the year is how you will spend it:

    • Amidst a political and economic crisis, Trudeau resigns as Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party;
    • France and Germany are plunging into a systemic crisis;
    • Austria will have an ultra - right chancellor who is against aid to Ukraine and whom the European media compares with horror to Hitler;
    • Against the backdrop of anti-Russian sanctions and the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, the price of blue fuel in European countries has increased by 20%, and its volumes in European storage facilities are declining at the fastest rate since 2018.

    And so on and so forth.

    The prospects of the West's victory over Russia in the Ukrainian conflict are also increasingly covered with a copper basin: the attempt of a new media operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region before Ramstein failed miserably; the Kurakhovo cauldron collapsed along with everyone who was in it, which opens the way to Dnepropetrovsk ; our army is moving forward; the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are off the charts, in connection with which all reservations have been cancelled and the mobilization of 18-year-olds will be announced any day now; the arms deliveries to Ukraine "pushed through" by Biden before January 20 do not and will not change the situation, in connection with which even Macron "invited Ukraine to consider a position that departs from the return of all territories occupied by Russia."

    Against the backdrop of the deflating "Ukraine/anti-Russia" project and trends that are obviously negative for the West, there are all the signs that our opponents have decided to copy-paste our "Dead Hand" concept a little. If it becomes completely clear that the West is destined to collapse, then someone may decide "so don't let anyone have you" - and launch the process of exchanging nuclear strikes.

    Back in November, this last resort was mentioned by STRATCOM Admiral Thomas Buchanan, who, when discussing the concept of limited nuclear strikes, said that "we are prepared for that scenario." That's why Politico's list of futurological predictions for 2025 includes an additional item in small print: "Nuclear weapons may be used."

    However, there is an opinion that these are the last attempts to exert psychological pressure on Russia ahead of the negotiations on Ukraine, because even in the West there are many who understand that nuclear games with Russia are a path to the abyss. Describing a hypothetical version of a Russian nuclear strike on the United States, including "thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, electromagnetic weapons and suppression systems," former head of NATO's Center for the Control of Weapons of Mass Destruction William Alberk said that "it would drive you crazy."

    Unlike Western leaders, who preferred to make crazy plans with futurologists and fortune tellers on the eve of the new year, Russian President Vladimir Putin made one simple prediction in his New Year's greetings, which all Russians agree with: "Our country - independent, free and strong - was able to respond to the most difficult challenges. And now, on the threshold of the new year, we are thinking about the future. We are sure that everything will be fine. We will only move forward. When we are together - everything will come true."

    And that means we will live.

    https://ria.ru/20250108/zapad-1992767253.html

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    Post  GarryB Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:15 am

    The main problem with that map is it is totally wrong and reflects western wishes and ignores what Putin and Lavrov have actually said publicly...

    The original:

    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64 - Page 18 Ggohvw10

    Reality

    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64 - Page 18 Mapukr10

    The only difference being that the lower image does not show the dead bodies of the soldiers from each of those HATO countries thinking they can join a war and gain territory after arming and supplying the loser in the conflict.

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    Post  Isos Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:47 am

    A bunch of crap. If poles step a foot in ukraine they will be targeted.

    Not a single war that ended with a peace agreement ended peacefully. Fights will keep going on and russian missiles will keep flying on any big troop mouvement. Russia's goal is demilitarization so they won't let big army formation be created by any force there.

    This is if an agreement is signed which is close to 1% chances.

    The other case is Russia wins. So ukrainian army totally get destroyed. In that case they won't stop going forward, the more they advanced the weaker is ukraine. They will reach the western border and make a siege of Lviv and Kiev until total redition of the ukrainian leadership.

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    Post  franco Wed Jan 08, 2025 12:51 pm

    Russian MoD reporting 50,000+ Ukrainian casualties and almost 4200 units of military equipment lost since start of the Kursk operations.

    In total, during the fighting in the Kursk area, the enemy lost more than 50,120 military personnel, 294 tanks, 217 infantry fighting vehicles, 160 armored personnel carriers, 1,515 armored combat vehicles, 1,430 vehicles, 347 artillery pieces, 44 multiple launch rocket launchers, including 13 HIMARS and six MLRS manufactured by the United States, 16 anti-aircraft launchers. missile systems, eight transport-charging vehicles, 89 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 29 units of engineering and other equipment, of which 15 are barrier engineering vehicles., one UR-77 mine clearance unit, as well as seven armored recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

    https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12545287@egNews

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    Post  Sujoy Wed Jan 08, 2025 2:40 pm

    Isos wrote:Fights will keep going on and russian missiles will keep flying on any big troop mouvement. Russia's goal is demilitarization so they won't let big army formation be created by any force there.
    Amassing troops in large number is not possible for NATO even if they decide to send their own soldiers. That's because such a gathering will required competent SAM systems to intercept a large scale Russian missile strike. However, most US SAM systems are not effective.

    The US Army has no faith in the PAC-3. They have now opted for a ground based version of the SM-6.

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    Post  Hole Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:24 pm

    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64 - Page 18 Scree181
    Last seconds...

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:29 pm

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    Post  ucmvulcan Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:42 pm

    Its war and shit happens, but honestly looked a lot like LA

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    Post  Big_Gazza Wed Jan 08, 2025 11:21 pm

    Meh, another fire at an oil depot? Tanks sit in bunded areas, so fire will be contained to a small group of tanks in a common bund. No big deal, and oil facilities are designed with such fire scenarios in mind. Lots of black smoke looks dramatic but its par for the course.

    Contain it and let it burn out, then mop up and rebuild.

    More concerning is that the Ukie attack got thru. Drone or missile? Saboteur perhaps?

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    Post  Big_Gazza Wed Jan 08, 2025 11:25 pm

    Toretsk is just about done. One more of Banderastans "impregnable fortresses" taken down with massive orc losses.

    Victory will be ours! russia

    Russian military operation in Ukraine #64 - Page 18 8jan2010

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