Syria situation after the fall of Baath regime #1

Flamming python

Those bases are useless. Syria is under the control now of a NATO puppet regime. And Israel is expanding its footprint too. If push comes to shove against NATO those bases would quickly be compromised and surrounded from all sides. Russia will have to vacate them at the earliest opportunity. There is nowhere in the Mediterranean now to go, but then the Mediterranean is not vital to Russia and was mostly outside its control during the Soviet era too. I'd say the best bet is to set up bases in Iraq. This will allow any approaches to the Caucasus to be checked and for Iran to have some forward support.

If you want to control Caucasus having a base in southern Iraq (part where Shia live) will not help you with that. Plus, Iraq is still under strict US control. If you want to help Iran and control sea lanes, open a base around Bandar Abbas, which overlooks Hormuz strait. For Mediterranean base, i still wonder why nothing was offered to Algeria? Maybe Algerians don't want it.
One last thing about Assad. He was put between a rock and a hard place with destroyed country after protracted war, deep division between religious and ethnic groups and good part of the population against him.
Where Russia and its block failed, was to provide investments into the country and help it rebuild. Obviously, both countries couldn't do that alone (Russia could have bought agricultural products and help them with restoring  electric energy network and Iran with oil and derivatives), but investment from China was needed, as only they have necessary capital and capacity.
Assad had to turn to Gulf countries for investment and for that, he had to start calculating and compromise.
Comment from Iranians, about opening a new front in Syrian Golan heights after October 7, just shows how disconnected they are from reality. That would just hasten Assad's demise.

"The example of Syria shows that Russia can be kicked out and will return home. The Baltic countries were right - the West was strong enough to win. We do not need to be afraid of the "bear" in Ukraine or anywhere else where he sows chaos," - Lithuanian Foreign Minister

@Slavyangrad

Biden made an official statement about Syria:

The situation in Syria is uncertain, but it can be used to build a better future.

The vacuum created in the country could be used by terrorists to rebuild their capabilities: "We won't let that happen."

Terrorism and human rights abuses are on the 'record' of a number of groups in Syria, but "they are saying the right things now."

The US will work with all Syrian groups to ensure a transition of power: the country needs a new government and a new constitution.

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/38779

Always the same script. In 10 years, expect a new war on terrorism in the destroyed Syria and their sponsors which at that time will be US new muslim enemy, Turkey.

Israel has bet on the wrong horse. They just added a new armed islamist group at their border that today is against Iran, like Hamas at the time, but will gladely use iranian missiles in 10 years to counter israeli barabaric strikes on them.

It doesn't matter to Israel. They always assume all Muslims and especially all Arabs are against them anyway or will go against them sooner or later

Hence why their priority is to keep them small and divided. And some retarded Islamists at war with each other and in control of a half-functional statelet don't bother them none, compared to a country with real capabilities such as Iran.

Now Israel is entering Syria. It has been bombing Damascus all day and the city is up in smoke. Its ground operation is ostensibly focused on surrounding Lebanon, but it's worth remembering what Israel did when it invaded and occupied Lebanon decades ago. It played divide and rule. It wasn't the only culprit, but the end result was that Beirut once known as a pearl of the Mediterranean, became a sectarian dump. And in Syria, the opportunities for playing divide and rule so are far greater still. There are many different rebel groups at odds with one another. Israel can ally with some or clandestinely support one against another, and hey presto.

US and Israel continue airstrikes in Syria

US CENTCOM reported over 75 airstrikes against ISIS in central Syria "to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation."

Israeli Army Radio reports that Israel bombed 100 targets in Syria today, most of them weapons depots.

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/38780

Check Tass this morning, Russian opposition leader says he will let the Russians stay in their bases.
-Check different Tass news article again this afternoon, they reconfirm that the opposition will let them stay in Syria to conduct missions.
Turks, Jews and militants are still scared of the BVC(Big Vatnik Cock).

Oh, the day after tomorrow, look at how IDF special forces and Turkish units disguised as Islamists flood the bases with drones and overrun them.

No, no, nothing will happen to you. All that remains is, we guarantee your safety. Of course, just as the Turks said to Assad and Iran, nothing will happen.

As they did at the first ceasefire in 2012 when the SAA was winning, as it was in 2015, as it was in 2020, no, no, we guarantee it!

Either Russia is massively upgrading the coastal strip, collecting the remains of the SAA who fled there, giving them regional control there and protecting this strip of land itself, or it has to get away from there before life and material are lost.

The IDF will not hesitate. Not anymore! They're going to flatten everything now, no matter who says what. You can only survive with your own strength or pull in the tail and we know that Russia decided weeks ago...

Oh please Israel and Turkey were to scared to assist the FSA 10 years ago. It already looks like the HTS reached an agreement so they can continue on with the SDF

https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2024/12/09/1080111-chto-budet-s-siriei-posle-bashara-asada

A catastrophe for the Muslim world, yet again

I mean if the situation doesn't stabilize soon, then we could be looking at millions more fleeing their homes, battles up and down the country, break down of social services and the Syrian economy.

The Arabs will never learn. They are being slaughtered in Gaza, colonized in the West Bank, Lebanon was bombarded and is being surrounded and will be subject to a siege, Syria is being broken apart, Yemen has been done in by its own.
And some still have the gall to celebrate Assad's deposal. Fools. Imagine if the Russians were to depose Stalin during WW2, and then look forward to building friendly relations with Nazi Germany. This is the level of stupidity we're dealing with.
But there's nothing to take satisfaction in here. We're watching the Arabs repeating the fate of the Red Indians. I'm sure it's the way it started there too. A bunch of tribes and peoples on the eastern seaboard decimated by disease and warfare with the European newcomers and some others further away were probably celebrating it.

Some here are claiming it's a catastrophe for Russia. No, it's not. It's just a waste of everything Russia tried to do there. But maybe Russia had no business trying anything in the first place.

In fact, the Russians (or Soviets) did something like that, with Khrushchev's de-Stalinization.
They began to implement the disastrous policy of "Peaceful Coexistence."
With the arrival of Gorbachev, the USSR disintegrated.

Doing to Damascus what they did to Beirut?

— / BREAKING: Under the cover of heavy artillery and airstrikes, the Israeli Army is continues to make advances into Syria, allegedly their goal is Daraa.

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13624

If there's any opportunity for Israel, it's now. The new Syrian 'government' has not had time to organize, and there simply are no defensive lines. The road is basically open.

Russia isn’t leaving the bases - they reinforce them , they have de facto recognition by current government to legitimize the bases courtesy of Erdogan

Everyone fucked up and Russia walks away like a lucky bastard , bases intact and not involved in the mess about to take place

Let turkey and the US and Israel duke it out over Kurds and the Euphrates

Russia just needs to prepare to seize Masyaf with VDV and Tiger forces , dig in along the roads and Masyaf and that’s all- Latakia and Tartus become novo Limassol

Russia didn’t earn this from some goodwill- it’s a nuclear power and can decapitate Turks or Israel with some Oreshniks

That’s why they keep their bases

What Masyaf, what VDV are you on drugs?
This is turning into a comedy hour.

Those who continue to analyze the Syrian situation as if the rebels defeated the government troops and their Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah allies are wrong.
There was an agreement here, of which we do not know all the details.
On the one hand, the rebels are a large agglomeration of groups with very different objectives.
On the other hand, not only have negotiations been held with the Russians and Iranians, but apparently with the pro-Assad forces.

Most of the posts on the networks are very unreliable. And whatever side they are on, they will never give us a real version of what happened.
In addition, it can be seen that the USA, Israel and Turkey are not very sure about the current situation and who might govern Syria.

Regarding Syria:

Stop looking for conspiracy centered on betrayal.

This was never supposed to be anything other than a localized attack in the vicinity of Aleppo.

But when the HTS fighters encountered no resistance, they pushed on.

Everything that unfolded from that point appears to be opportunistic exploitation of the unexplained, and unexplainable, collapse of the Syrian nation.

As Syria collapsed, those nations that had been conspiring against Syria have pounced on the rubble of that nation and declared victory.

Those nations that supported Syria are left to gaze in bewilderment at the evaporation of everything they had worked to achieve over the past decade.

But none of this was planned.

Everyone is reacting.

Which means there is no guaranteed outcome.

Things look good at the moment for Israel and Turkey.

And things certainly look bad for Russia and Iran.

But there are many unknowns lying in ambush for all parties involved.

Because none of this was predicted.

And nobody has a plan for what happens next.


https://x.com/RealScottRitter/status/1865799106351755678

Seems the HTS flag flies over the Syrian embassy in Moscow

Terrorists became “armed opposition” now we know how Russia keeps the bases

Check out the Israelis in freak out mode :

Al-Julani was born in Saudi Arabia to Syrian parents originally from the Golan Heights (hence his name, al-Julani, “The Golani”). He grew up in Damascus and, in a 2021 interview, shared that he was inspired by the Second Palestinian Intifada in 2000. He later became a jihadist in Iraq following the U.S. invasion in 2003. Over the years, he kept his identity hidden by covering his face in public appearances. In 2011, he returned to Syria from Iraq to establish al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch.

Sham is the Arabic term for “Greater Syria”—a region that encompasses modern-day Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel (as shown on the map). It’s the Arabic equivalent of the term “Greater Land of Israel,” an ancient concept tied to territorial aspirations, including the “liberation” of Jerusalem, not just Syria’s current borders.

While al-Julani projects a moderate image outwardly and speaks the language of moderation, the name of his organization encapsulates far more extreme intentions.

——

Russia will benefit from this situation , look at the HTS



Turks won’t be able to help them against IAF and USAF , but VKS certainly can

They won’t make moves on Latakia or Tartus , Turks need Russia has equalizer against US/Israeli

Russian diplomacy came in handy

Meanwhile USAF runs air strikes on Arabs in Kurd lands they are now “ISIS”

It’s quite predictable - US won’t allow Turks to clear Kurds off the border , they will label all Arabs ISIS

Turks need Russia for this round , Russia just needs to play it smart - reinforce the bases and wait for the moment when the other 3 are clashing for Daraa, Damascus and Euphrates

Seems Russia is planning an op , basically to hold north south M53, D35, and D34 highways and retake Masyaf

I think HTS could even just let it happen as they get picked apart by USAF and IAF

Turks won’t make moves against it

Latakia and Tartus would be the basis for Alawistan along the highways from Masyaf

167 km is easy for the VKS regiment and a VDV brigade to hold ofc it will be done incrementally as the other actors take HTS apart and seize land for themselves

There is indeed a play here to be made. But i have zero faith in Putin doing anything. And frankly i suspect he' won't push for Ukrainian capitulation either. He'll let the conflict freeze Which will no doubt backfire and possible be the end of Russia.

Yeah, the watermelon seller's attitude towards Putin further confirms Russia's stay in Syria.

lol Putin launched the only high intense European war of 21 century

There will be no peace deal or withdrawal from Syria

There will be Alawistan and Novorossiya and Malorossiya

@gopnik - like I said Turks have no problem with Alawistan , they need Russia as a balance against Israelis and US plans