Syria situation after the fall of Baath regime #1

The russian bases are located in the area thet Alawites are the majority. So there will be strong local population support

We have to wait and see.

This is what you should have done before you guys mocked and insulted Russians.

@MyLordBebo
Russia retreats from Sarrin Air Base in Ayn al-Arab.
As far as I understand they all go to the tartus naval base or Khmeimein air base. All others are/will be abandoned.
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1866018169690702081

Have you been doing crack or something?

Iraq is in the middle of nowhere and Iran is next on the chopping block

You know who takes over USA in a month? A guy who made it his goal in life to torch Iran to the ground and now they have entire Middle East as their playground

Iran will be having that same puppet regime before long

Bases in Syria can easily be supplied from the sea, as long as you don't pussy out they are yours

Well that's exactly the point PD. We have to make sure that Iran is not next on the chopping block. By any means necessary. And we have the might to do it.
Let Trump bring it on. In the Ukraine, in Iran, wherever he wants.

And I'm not worried about an internal betrayal in Iran. Syria was always the weak link. That's how they ended up with a mass uprising and civil war in the first place.

Russia isn’t leaving the bases - they reinforce them , they have de facto recognition by current government to legitimize the bases courtesy of Erdogan

Everyone fucked up and Russia walks away like a lucky bastard , bases intact and not involved in the mess about to take place

Let turkey and the US and Israel duke it out over Kurds and the Euphrates

Russia just needs to prepare to seize Masyaf with VDV and Tiger forces , dig in along the roads and Masyaf and that’s all- Latakia and Tartus become novo Limassol

Russia didn’t earn this from some goodwill- it’s a nuclear power and can decapitate Turks or Israel with some Oreshniks

That’s why they keep their bases

Glad to see we still have people ready to depend on Erdogan's benevolence, or on his alleged fear of Russia

I said the Arabs will never learn
Neither will you

Yeah all the observation posts and bases east of M53 will be abandoned, but that’s fine 167km is a short line to reinforce, can be done with a small VDV brigade and Tiger Forces

VKS can do everything else

HTS isn’t a top tier force, they didn’t meet resistance when taking Aleppo, Homs, Hama or Damascus

The SAA literally couped Assad by just running away and leaving equipment

A lot of people conflate what happened with HTS being this supreme NATO backed force - they’re not, they’re Toyota goat fuckers that will get routed at the slightest resistance

They can defend Idlib , but they’re not some Ukrainians with E3 support and Bradley’s - only thing they have in common is suicidal tendency to Zerg rush under bombs , Russia has fought a NATO military for 3 years now - the goat fuckers will be easy if try anything

But they won’t for now because they’re tied down with Kurds at Manbij and the Kurd lands east of Euphrates

It will be funny to watch USAF and Kurds fight the Turks and HTS - popcorn time

Then you have Israelis making a dash for Damascus atm

The Russian position is not ideal, but diplomacy and SAA collapse actually bought them time by making them a non threat in the eyes of Turks

Their priority is Kurdistan

@Caucasuswar
The situation in the east of the Euphrates is rapidly deteriorating as, tonight, local Arab tribes have driven US-backed YPG forces out of Al-Karamah town. Although the SDF-YPG coalition still controls the east of Euphrates, numerous towns and villages are increasingly turning against them. Rebels have already seized control of Deir ez-Zor city and the key border town of Al-Bukamal.

@ejmalrai
In 48 hours, #Israel occupied almost twice the seize of #Gaza Strip in #Syria after declaring war on #Damascus.
War declaration: Israel has formally renounced the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Syria, asserting its intentions to reshape the dynamics along the border.


@A7_Mirza
On the first day of #Israel|i ground operation on #Syria|n soil, the Israeli army positioned its forces at a Syrian army border post in the Hadar area and the strategic heights of Hermon. They also deployed tanks in the uninhabited town of Quneitra, Baath, Hamidiyah, Rawidi. /1

There is indeed a play here to be made. But i have zero faith in Putin doing anything. And frankly i suspect he' won't push for Ukrainian capitulation either. He'll let the conflict freeze Which will no doubt backfire and possible be the end of Russia.

There is no play to make here. Because there is nothing to gain from participating in the coming clusterfuck and playing divide and rule among local fiefdoms. No need to make friends and enemies prematurely. Russia spent the last 10 years doing that in Syria and what did it get for Russia?
Best just to wipe their hands of the affair and wait to see who will emerge in 5-10 years time. And then build relations with them.

And both Tartus and Hmeimym were useful to Russia not only because of their location. That's only the half of it. The other half was their strategic depth, and their support by a grateful population. Those bases had nearly the whole of Syria, friendly territory, to surround them. To the south was Lebanon, de-facto under the control of Hezbollah and also friendly. Turkey and Israel were both kept at bay. Now that has all been compromised and there is nothing more to do there except evac.

This thread is a crystal clear example of the meaning of content trolling.
All the apes rushed out of the cages and gathered here - because there is less and less space for fag whining on the other fronts.
You have been yapping for a week now - and nothing gets to you other than you can present your pussy comments not worth a second to consider.
First and foremost, it is obvious that Russkie reached some sort of deal with the Turks.
All the air transport goes via Turkish airspace, all the comments are nothing but respectful, and yesterday Erdo commented on how they with Vladimir are the only true leaders left on the planet and how crucial this will be in the coming days (sic!).
Nobody has even touched Russian assets, an embassy in Damascus, or bases.
Nobody has said a word about "Russkie go home!".
For 3 days now, there has been louder and louder about the partition of Syria, with a reincarnation of the Alawi entity. Tens of thousands of refugees are arriving in the area. It seems that the Syrian army elite forces arrived there as well, and are defending the mountain passes.
If that's the case, it could mean that Russia will get some sort of client state with a wide coastline, located in the most developed and self-sufficient areas of Syria.
A few years ago, there was a serious discussion about whether Syria could become a formal protectorate.
None of you even considered the scenario, when it was Assad who got tired of all this shit. Syria is in ruins, partially occupied, while the US thugs robbing it out of resources with a silent acknowledgment of all sides. He was fighting for survival for the last 15 years - maybe he just considered that enough is enough?
He just stepped down, calling for a peaceful transition of power, and fled to Russia to live his days.

Only way that could make sense is if Erdogan decided to pick his side once and for all, quit NATO, throw his lot in with the BRICS, and join the anti-Israel front - then yeah, some in Russia and Iran might decide to give him Syria in return.

But even that doesn't make sense. You don't just betray your close allies like that. Everyone is observing and no-one will want to trust you for anything ever again. For all the flak that Erdogan is getting - note that he never betrays his own friends. Not the Syrian Islamists, or the Turkish Cypriots, or Azerbaijan, or his now exiled Muslim Brotherhood buddies in Egypt, nobody. And Putin has never betrayed his friends either, personally. Not his style.

And secondly, it's Erdogan we're talking about here. No way that Russia and Iran will give him anything, much less surrender their entire presence in Mediterranean predicated on something that he promises to do in return - without him actually doing that thing first. That makes no sense; Erdogan is a fence-sitter and plays on the contradictions of great power rivalries; Moscow and Tehran understand that perfectly well.

SO, there is no basis for some sort of grand bargain between Russia/Iran and Turkey. And indeed the character of the whole collapse of Syria with the initial bombing from the RuAF, the Iranians pulling up Iraqi forces ready to deploy them in support of the SAA, and then Assad fleeing without even making a public appearance - suggests things were far more frantic and rushed. And Russia/Iran simply conceded the play to Turkey.

Turkey has no bone to pick with Russia here, why would they start allowing their proxies to attack Russian bases (in fact a Russian SSO patrol was ambushed and took casualties when the HTS offensive began initially, after their position was betrayed), or Russian embassies or anything of the kind. It's not evidence of some kind of deal - it's evidence of a mature relationship between Turkey and Russia who are capable of compartmentalizing their various rivalries outside of the wider scope of their relations overall, which are very extensive and multifaceted.

Did it ever occur to you that the reason why your clients keep fücking up is because they know that all they need to do is to fúck you over, fúck up on the job and that you will immediately reward them with lifetime all expenses paid trip to Russia courtesy of Russian taxpayers?

Hardly a situation which motivates to do what you are told

And you might be right.

Now, find me a leader who will build an alliance with Russia in that case in the first place

ATO already embarrassed itself at the world stage when they supported Ukraine and now have to urge Zelensky to cede territory to Russia. This entire Syrian war is going to be the US and Israel bombing HTS and Turkey and Russia bombing the SDF. The US and Israel had like 10 fucking years to at least make an attempt to get rid of the Russians and I still think they wont do it.

From the looks of it I don't think some major gas line projects will happen. Israel with its gas depot shit wont happen, UAE using Syria through Turkey(back and forth arguments with the Russians before on running a gas-line through europe that still hasn't been resolved) wont happen either. In the end the Euros are still getting cucked from getting their gas. Russians are still sitting in their military bases. So what strategic goal does the US or Israel have at this point in Syria other than the US keeping the oil fields? Maybe blocking Iran from supporting Hezbollah is the only one goal I see with the assumption the Iranians chicken out.

I'll give you a hint

It's all about Israel and its security. And living space as it were.

We do not know what deals were made. We do not know what went on. A Jihadist flag at the Syrian embassy in Moscow? Really? That tells me that this has been in the works for quite a while. These people don't want to f*** with Russia, they want to f*** with Israel and Turkey and then Russia. I would give anything to get my hands on the memos, texts, correspondence, emails, and transcripts of phone calls that led to this. Also, I don't think the Jihadis try to toy around with Russia. In Ukraine there are rules that keep that from turning dark. There are none that Russia is obligated to follow.

No the explanation is more simple. Just Syrian govt functionaries, whether inside or outside the country, wanting to ingratiate themselves with the new regime, and being in a rush to do it. The Syrian Prime Minister already offered his co-operation with the 'Syrian opposition'. Why wouldn't Syrian embassies around the world?
From what I heard a lot of Syrians on Facebook who had their Bashar Assad photos and Syrian Arab Republic flag profile pics are changing their stripes real quick too.

Elite SAA troops? FUCKING ROFL. There are no more elite SAA troops and haven't been for years clearly. The Tiger forces were only good due to their officers who were relieved of their command.

The coastline doesn't generate that much income, the richest part of Syria is under SDF control, as for no one touching the russians. And? HTS is picking fights already with the kurds and Israel is looking to land grab, they cannot afford to get the russians mad ATM, but who knows in the future.

Trusting the turks to keep their word? yeah how did that work out for you (Looks at Syria) Not well at all, despite those turkish promises eh, I guess people who think you can trust Erdo like to get fucked and hard huh. Erdo only understands one thing FORCE, You cannot trust his words but you can trust him to **** off if you show him you will make good on that promise of force.

I see a lot of flat out BS and people with no experience in the area or matters talking and making absurd claims.

@Ark: Your understanding of Syria is like six years old, Tiger forces are now shit. Their General made them good as did their officers who don't run that show anymore.

@Geogre: This is very risky, these people were celebrating Assad's downfall. They are not reliable. They were cheering for HTS when they entered Latakia

@Pape: 5K Russian troops would probably be enough, just because they are russian troops, but lets be real Putin ain't got the balls to park forces in their and say "i own this now bitches".

You would need more for the initial push tho but once you train up locals and put them under Russian command you could downgrade the size of this force

----

This is the only way the russians control the area they need to and there is no debate on this.

Troops are sent in, they will need to force HTS out, HTS already has men in villages and cities along the coastline. Do you all think they aren't there? No they are. The SAA forces left the mountains over a day ago (sorry Alamo, your wrong yet again). Granted this won't be very hard BUTTT it will still cost blood in the end.

Once you have forced HTS out, you then need to deal with the locals. Will they accept being under Russian control? MAYBE if the russians can pump enough money and and give them a decent living they will. This is also going to be a constant theme with this area, it generates no income pretty much meaning it will alwways be a drain on your bank account.

Relying on large masses of ex SAA troops and locals who haven't been properly integrated into the Russian Federation is just delaying a force out even longer and its way to risky to relay on them. The fall of Syria shows that, you could use them to supplement your own forces but you would still need your own men and lots of officers on the ground to keep them in line and to keep them from going "OMG ITS A GUY WITH A GUN AND A PICKUP WE HAVE A TANK BUT RUN AWAY ANYHOW".

as for Isreal, they won't do shit long as the Russians don't mess with the land they now want,

Turkey? you make it clear they mess with you there and there will be problems, they will back down. Erdo would be content with letting the russians control that small area in exchange for most of Syria. These are the only two players Russia would need to worry about

But Again Putin ain't got the brazen guts to do this, Say what you want about Erdo and Nety, but they do and thats why they are getting places in Syria.

IMO Putin should do this, Crave out the area, declare it now a part of the Russian Federation make it an Atom republic and bam you now have a permanent Med naval base Russia, I would say thats worth the investment when all you need to do is punch HTS in the face.

It wouldn't be very hard to do this (you could get this done in a month), I could easily get this done with 5k combat troops as my 5k would go above 10K easy once I start absorbing SAA remnants and again one their own they are shit (former SAA troops) but under competent control they are more then decent to fight HTS. if I was a Russian field commander, I know exactly how to do it also.

Wait and see ? Well that's what I said in Libya . A confused and politically immature multitude fighting each other . Passing the ball to any one side , could mean an own goal .  Let the kids grow up , then you can choose your favourite son . But in Armenia , I said that it is a Chicken and egg situation . You know the saying " What came first ? The Chicken or the Egg ? "  Of course the answer is that the Chicken came first , already containing the Egg . Since the Egg , can not hatch itself . And in Kurdistan , I said that  they should now be recognised and supported by normal trade or support , even if they remain politically wayward . So which answer is right ?

Waiting until the kids grow up , or waiting until other people are counting their Eggs , may be the easiest thing to do . Perhaps we could sneak in an Egg or two , under their Chicken to hatch . Like the Cuckoo bird . This is fine , in situations where our national interests are not immediately at risk . But if it is an existential threat , such as this NATO / Turkey proxy terror force , then waiting for their Turkey to lay an Egg , is no option !

In my view the threat from NATO to Euro-Asia is existential , especially in the European and ME theatre . Here we need our own Chickens and our own Chicken coops and a fence to keep out the Fox or the Dog . The Err-Dog.gone. This needs to happen any place this Pan - Turkish NATO , terror proxy forces are trying to lay an Egg . But priority in the Caucasus , and Alawistan , and then Asia .

So apparently Israel advanced 15+ km and captured the southeastern slope of Mt Hermon. They also captured almost the entirety of the UN Supervised Zone that was returned to Syria in 1974. This gives Israel a stranglehold on the Golan Heights, guaranteeing their control of the area for the foreseeable future as well as given them a major strategic advantage over southern Lebanon.

I am guessing Israel will make it seem like they are staying within the Ceasefire Zone, but will establish a substantial security buffer zone on the Hauran plain where they control things 5-10km deep.

It's still close enough to Russia it's not a major problem, as for the rest I can see what your saying but time isn't on the russian side here

So apparently Israel advanced 15+ km and captured the southeastern slope of Mt Hermon. They also captured almost the entirety of the UN Supervised Zone that was returned to Syria in 1974. This gives Israel a stranglehold on the Golan Heights, guaranteeing their control of the area for the foreseeable future as well as given them a major strategic advantage over southern Lebanon.

I am guessing Israel will make it seem like they are staying within the Ceasefire Zone, but will establish a substantial security buffer zone on the Hauran plain where they control things 5-10km deep.

They're going to set up a Druze puppet state in southern Syria, or so goes the Twitter speculation, in addition to their immediate objectives vis-a-vis Lebanon

The Druze being another group that has been corrupted by CIA money

https://www.facebook.com/K01Archive/posts/pfbid02rSnTA7W7oeRiVLnZyN56DBrZEVtV8CdXAGmVTPqge8F7s2oPLcswJHu7NEk97g8Jl

We have to know the 2014 situation of Syria to understand why SAA fell.

In 2014, Syria received huge support from Russia both economically and militarily. Russia mobilized a lot of air and sea support for Syria, Russian aircraft had a high frequency of sorties. Not to mention that the high-quality PMU Wagner that time, served both as shock troops and military trainer for several Syrian units. Artillery, UAV are directly commanded by Russia.

Economic-wise, Syrian government had to be depended on Russia, because the devastation of war caused by USA, and the fact that USA and its allies occupied many of Syrian major oil field, which have been stealing a lot of revenue from Syrian budget.

Now in 2024 as Russia is busy in Ukraine and Bosphorus strait is blocked by Turkey, Russia could not maintain high level of presence in the local area. And Wagner no longer exist. It is understandable why Syria fell.

Sony Thang
@nxt888
"He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight" — Sun Tzu

Russia is facing a multi-faceted geopolitical struggle—one that is much more about long-term strategy than immediate victories. Right now, it's fighting alone against the entire collective West on the Ukrainian battlefield, while also needing to remain alert for any potential escalation in the Korean Peninsula. It's a situation of strategic depth, not simply tactical engagement.

As for Syria, while Russia has been a staunch ally, helping Syria at this point doesn’t make much sense if the Syrian army itself is not willing or able to continue the fight. The state of Syria is fragmented; its economy is in ruins, and its governance is no longer centralized.

In this sense, it’s like a chess game—sacrificing a pawn, or even a piece, doesn’t mean losing the game. In fact, it can be part of a larger, more calculated strategy that ensures the overall positioning of Russia in the future.

The West may think in terms of short-lived victories, but Russia’s moves are calculated, not emotional, and looking toward long-term stability. To declare a loss now would be to misunderstand the nature of strategy itself. It's not about the image or immediate satisfaction—it's about ensuring that, in the end, Russia controls its destiny, and that it has laid the groundwork for a more secure future, no matter how difficult the present may seem.

Ukraine, Syria, and the broader Middle East are pieces on the global chessboard. It is the larger geopolitical positioning that matters, and this is what Russia is working toward—ensuring its place in the emerging world order.

The game is far from over.

Little mentioned but the Russian bases in Syria have a potentially important role to play in Russia's moves in Africa.

Once their role in Syria proper is over, like now, it will be their main role. Something that Erdogan has little interest in so could easily support.

Compare with the role of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, still UK territory.

As someone said here "only time will tell", but I'm pretty sure that many deals have been made here between many players. As far as the Russian bases in Syria I would not be surprised if they will maintain the status quo for now. Personally I would rather consider bases in Egypt and Algeria. Free access to the Med remains vital for Russia and they do need support bases along the way. A strong naval/air presence in Algeria should send the right kind of message to the French.

Judging by some of the talk here I definitely need to consider expanding my zoo's floor space dramatically!

Russians With Attitude
@RWApodcast

When the Israelis are done, there won't be a single air defence system, ammunition depot or missile launch site left intact. Then they can stop caring about who comes to power in Syria because the country will be militarily neutered for decades if not forever.

Israel is dismantling every strategic deterrent Syria had so that the country can never again be a threat to Israeli interests in the region. They can bomb Syria with absolute impunity and they will keep doing so because there is literally nothing to stop them now even in theory.

Hassan Ridha
@sayed_ridha
Isr*eli Defense Minister: I have instructed the army to continue destroying heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria and create a security area free of strategic weapons and infrastructure that threaten Isr*el. The army seized additional points in the buffer zone with Syria.

Shouldn't that qualify as an "unprovoked and unjustified attack" on Ukraine sorry Syria?

Asking for a friend