Israel-Iran shadow war escalation

Serious question- why would you think Israel has a very capable military? They have never fought against a near peer rival.

They have the best western equipment US taxpayers money can buy and they modify it too to make it as much as they can manage "better".

They also have no qualms at all in terms of fighting and with cheat and fight dirty to gain every advantage they can manage.

Iran will not retaliate against #Israel in any way to divert attention from the Palestinian cause.

Iran has a wide range of weapons and equipment it can pass on to various factions currently fighting Israel... things like long range sniper rifles, or of course drones and ballistic rockets could all be used to damage Israel during its current conflict in Israel or elsewhere.

Low flying long range attack drones like the once they sold to Russia for licence production would be quite a problem for Israeli air defences, not to mention their own wide range of other weapons they produce for themselves which seem to work rather well in their own right.

Come to think about it , the Islamic Republic , since it's founding ( During Khalkhali's time )  , as well as eliminating any and all divergent and opposition views , did carry out executions , real or false of people with surnames that were similar to important opposition figures . They did this as a warning to keep them quiet . I think they may be doing this again . The surname of this supposed soldier , is the same as ex-prime minister under house arrest , a reformist figure . So the state has interests in engineering this event . They give a warning to the reformist camp , as well as diverting attention from internal political strife , over the " elections , " stealing the limelight and imposing a political mindset ( paradigm / milieu ) .  They don't have to retaliate against Israel either , hence the ambigious posture . Real casualties of Israeli attacks , remain unidentified , buried most probably under a story , that they were Iran/ Iraq war casualties , or old casualties in Syria , fighting the terror groups . I have heard that coffins may actually be empty , only serving to wip up religious fever ! We have to allow the possibility that Soleymani and Fakhrinejad may have been excluded from their activities , as a gesture to the West , if alive , given fresh identities and hidden . Elvis may still be alive !

Israel cranking up the "attack us pretty please" message. Double tap for Christs sake on civilians.


NUMBER OF DEAD IN TERRORIST ATTACK ON IRAN
IS APPROACHING 150

Iranian Minister of Interior:

• “This terrorist act will be met with a strong and decisive response from the security and military apparatus in the shortest possible time.”

• “The first explosion occurred at 3PM, and when people rushed to come & help the wounded, a second explosion occurred at 3:20PM; most of the martyrs & injured are affected by the second explosion.”

• “The situation in Kerman is normal now, and everything is under the control of the security and law enforcement forces.”

• “The enemy tried to carry out explosions in various ceremonies, which was thwarted by our intelligence forces.”

Il Russo reports

Doubt it is the work of Israel . It is not a military target , and it has the effect of unifying Iranians by inflaming nationalistic and religious sentiments . Not exactly productive for Israel . Israel can not bank on American support , in case of direct war with Iran either . Or a clear plan to win that war . Nor is it likely an extremist group from opposition or ethnic groups , for the same reason and terrible retribution ! No , the beneficiary is someone who can use nationalistic and religious fever , at a time ,when the Islamic Republic is no longer in fashion , with very low voter turnout , loosing legitimacy , in upcoming fake elections ! Similar attacks were done against Mosques as diversion during recent protests . Likely an inside job by extremist right wing groups to solidify their political stance .

You may be right, Iran won’t come to Hamas or Hezbollah’s aid directly because Khamanei like the other Ayatollahs prioritise their survival and of its underlying autocratic systems a lot more.

But at the moment I suspect that Israel is well aware of the black hole it has put itself on the edge of and is desperate to bring its big brother, the US, into the war by whatever means it can. Whilst hitting a target like this has no military value it puts huge pressure on Iran to do something. That it isn't, in the short run at least, is a real restraint.


OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei has reportedly ordered for IRGC Military Commanders to Limit their ongoing Attacks on U.S. and Coalition Forces within Syria and Iraq in recent Days; with Khamenei claimed to have further stated that Iran must Avoid any kind of Direct Military Confrontation with the United States at all Costs.

The Bombing yesterday in the City of Kerman was also reportedly mentioned in recent Discussions between Khamenei and Military Commanders, in which he directed that “Strategic Patience” must be had following the Attack in order to Discover the Parties who are Truly Responsible.

Iran needs to not fall in the trap that is set for them, Alex is right.

I agree it is probably a trap, but Iran could turn a western trap into something that breaks the west.

Ukraine was a trap too... it has created the best boost to the Russian economy and allowed them to kick out a lot of traitors and parasites and change thing to suit Russia for Russians.

It has clearly damaged HATO and the EU who don't look anywhere near as powerful and unified as they used to pretend they were.

The fact that after only two years they are running out of ammo to supply suggests they were a paper tiger... and the fact that they have blown perhaps 200 billion US dollars in that time plus who knows how many other billions of dollars since 2014 that have been spent on them, and it will probably take ten years to replace the weapons and ammo they have used up let alone working out how much they should have in storage in case they get involved in a real conflict.

Maybe now would be the best time to get into a conflict with the US... the way the US behaves such a conflict is probably inevitable...

Not sure if it should be posted here...but...

Iran attacked U.S Targets in Iraq.

looks like there is some serious missile attacks on the Americans right now in Iraq, erbil.
Heavy impacts, and footage what looks like ballistic missile's boosting up towards iraq from the Iranian Kurdistan province.

Nothing is confirmed but both the U.S consulate and U.S army base are hit hard by both drones and missile impacts.




Ballistic missile impact.

the sound is real, its an ballistic missile like they used before on the americans.

More, target was Mosad and a meeting of their Iranian agents.

“In response to the recent terrorist crimes of the enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the spy headquarters and gatherings of anti-Iran groups in parts of the Region were targeted by IRGC ballistic missiles in the middle of the night,” IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency cited a statement by the group as saying.

Frame interpolated and upscaled.

Iranian attack on Israeli and U.S targets in Middle East

Looks like the missile launch from Iran into Syria , was demonstrative . It was fired at max range , to show it's reach . The one fired into Iraq , reportedly had casualties . But Americans deny any of their nationals were involved . This area was important enough to have these C-RAM AD , but no patriot was fired ? Why ? It looks like their Radar can detect incoming missiles , therefore these Iranian missiles are visible on their Radar . The guns reacted well and pointed accurately into missile flight path . Looks like they were out of range , the rounds racing and falling to Earth . Does patriot have slow reaction time , against flat trajectory fast missiles ? I say likely . Still better to fire missiles than just show photo in newspapers . Iranians must find internal elements , infiltration within security services , accomplices in terror attacks . Another scientist was killed in explosion today . New security services must be set up , separate from existing one , and watch for infiltration elements .

Peshraw Dizayee was killed on the attack , he is a Kurdish politician and former spokesperson for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) .

Tehran said he has links with Mossad which i believe as Erbil is known as a Hub for Mossad .

Missiles went over Basrah and reached Erbil which is a range more than 1000 km .

Update : Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s missile force, Brigadier General Haji Zadeh: 4 “Khaybar” missiles were launched from southern Iran towards ISIS positions in Idlib, and 11 precision ballistic missiles were launched from western Iran towards targets in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Booom

Iran announced that they carried out missile strike inside Pakistan.

Likely Iran informed Pak about this and Pak acquiesced, maybe in lieu of a few litres of oil.

If they didn't, almost impossible any AD system could have detected incomings in time for SAMs to be activated. Not a reflection on PAF.

The main target in Erbil, before and after. Was it Mosad or just the house of a billionaire? Whatever, Iran decided that it needed 5 ballistic missiles.

A slightly off topic question:

Does any of you guys know what the support for the current government in Iran is? I have heard from an Iranian that it's low, especially among the youth. Any confirmation of this?

Iran has the ability to copy and cheapen technologies that were expensive in their origin. If they were to obtain an easily manufactured hypersonic missile, Israel would be doomed.

ArgentinaGuard wrote:Iran has the ability to copy and cheapen technologies that were expensive in their origin. If they were to obtain an easily manufactured hypersonic missile, Israel would be doomed.

They already have BM with hypsersonic speed at impact.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A slightly off topic question:

Does any of you guys know what the support for the current government in Iran is? I have heard from an Iranian that it's low, especially among the youth. Any confirmation of this?

It is not low but it not high, I would say it is in the middle. After the Israeli operation in Gaza it has gone up.

If you follow Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi(he is Iran based in Tehran University, he also part of the delegation during JCOPA meetings), he comes on the Duran and other channels. I think he gives unbiased opinion and he has good information.

https://twitter.com/s_m_marandi?lang=en

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A slightly off topic question:

Does any of you guys know what the support for the current government in Iran is? I have heard from an Iranian that it's low, especially among the youth. Any confirmation of this?

Voter turnout was very low in Tehran , during last election . Some 25% only . Plus during previous elections , there were accusations of vote fraud also . I think there is a voter register , people have documentation stamped or recorded , as having voted . And I think people who do not show they voted , are subject to economic sanctions or lack of job opportunity . I think if voter turnout is less than 51% overall , then no legitimate government can form . Marandi or........ the supreme leader , can not speak freely in Iran .

https://theconversation.com/why-iranians-wont-vote-new-survey-reveals-massive-political-disenchantment-162374


Even if Iranian parliament can not be held , rest assured , Iranian people are ready to fight the yank and Zionists anytime !

Iran has the ability to copy and cheapen technologies that were expensive in their origin. If they were to obtain an easily manufactured hypersonic missile, Israel would be doomed.

I am not sure that is true. A lot of the things Iran gets on the black market they have to pay high prices because the people on that black market knows they can't get things from the normal channels so they can demand more.

Iran is not a rich country that can just throw money around like paper, but it has oil and other resources it can trade for things it needs, but when it comes to something like making cell phones or cars, the cost of making them for Iran is probably much higher than for say China who can get most of its components on the open market where competition keeps prices down and China will be making enormous numbers of phones and cars with plenty of customers at home and for export so mass production will allow cost savings too.

What Iran does is amazing, but they worked very hard for what they have achieved... which other countries in the region launch their own satellites without much help, and in fact with the entire west trying to put as many barriers in their way as they can.

Even if Iranian parliament can not be held , rest assured , Iranian people are ready to fight the yank and Zionists anytime !

It is Ironic because it is what netenyahoo relied upon in Israel... he knew he was going to lose power but a good war would solidify his position and solve his local political problems... if he didn't have a hand in this conflict starting directly he certainly would have done everything he could to encourage it to start because it has kept him in office a little longer and out of jail a little longer too.

For the Russians the conflict in Ukraine is similar because it is clearly a western conflict aimed at damaging and destroying Russia so they have to fight and they have to work together.

For Iran and Yemen and other countries in the region war is polarising... and that will work against Israel and the US and UK.

Seems like joint agreement , Pakistan did the same inside Iran .

@ashrafnsier : Pakistani Foreign Ministry: Our armed forces carried out an anti-terrorism operation “against terrorist hideouts” located in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan.