Israel-Iran shadow war escalation

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/world/middleeast/israel-iran-shadow-war.html

This article refers to israeli f-35 jets that are apparently striking at will across the ME.

(I post here because the article makes reference to the supposed attack in Iraq last week against an Iranian base that was under construction.)

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/israels-f-35s-are-uncontested-kings-middle-easts-skies-80116

Iran will help secure Syria’s skies against Israeli attacks: report

By
News Desk -
2020-07-11 0

Iran will help Syria strengthen its air defence as part of an agreement between the two states signed on Wednesday. The agreement was signed by Iran’s Chief of the Armed Forces General Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Syrian Minister of Defence Ali Abdullah Ayyub.

The agreement provides for the strengthening of military ties, as well as enhancing constant coordination between the parties. Moreover, Bagheri said that Iran’s strengthening of Syria’s air defence was aimed at increasing the pace of defence cooperation between the two countries.

Does this mean an increase in Iran’s military presence in the country? How will this affect relations with other countries and regions, as well as the withdrawal of foreign forces from Syria?

What should be expected from Israel? Could this affect Russian-Syrian defence contracts and military-technical cooperation? Sputnik talked to Boris Dolgov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to find out.

According to Dolgov, the agreement provides an opportunity to better resist Israel’s illegal aggressive attacks:

“Iran has supported Syria in the fight against terrorist groups since the beginning of the internal conflict in 2011 by sending military advisers, IRGC members and volunteers to strengthen the Syrian armed forces. But there has never been a large Iranian military presence. Iran helped create a number of armed formations, including the people’s army with 50,000 participants, and provided financial and organizational support to create it.

The agreement expands the current forms of military-technical cooperation; it is aimed at enhancing the fight against terrorist groups operating in Syria. Air defence strengthening is an important aspect of that. Israeli Air Forces still attack Syrian military facilities, which are partially used by Iranian forces. The agreement is precisely aimed at strengthening air defence systems to counter these illegal aggressive attacks,” he said.

The Russian expert pointed out that the agreement is unlikely to allow Iran to bring army garrisons into Syria; it will strengthen the military-technical cooperation between the two countries:

“This agreement is more about the military-technical cooperation between Iran and Syria. This is a positive factor for the Syrian army in their fight against armed terrorist groups.”
Boris Dolgov believes that the Iran-Syria agreement won’t force the illegitimate foreign forces in Syria, represented by the US and its allies, to leave this country, but perhaps will further infuriate them:

“Officially, only Russia and Iran take part in resolving the Syrian conflict and supporting the Syrian army at the request of Syria’s legitimate government. Any other armed groups are present and act in Syria illegally. I’m talking of Turkey, the United States, and in some ways even Israel. These countries don’t have relevant agreements with Syria, nor have they a UN mandate to be in Syria. Therefore, one can expect the condemnation of the agreement or some kind of anti-Iranian and anti-Syrian campaign propaganda, as well as exaggerating the scale of Iran’s military presence in Syria on the part of these forces (the United States and Israel). It’s likely that these forces will respond to the Iranian presence in Syria, including with military actions. Therefore, the Iran-Syria agreement isn’t going to force these armed forces to withdraw.”

Boris Dolgov also thinks that the agreement won’t affect Moscow-Damascus military-technical cooperation in any way, but will only further strengthen the Russian-Iranian-Syrian forces in the fight against a common enemy, terrorist groups:
ALSO READ  Syrian Army pushes more reinforcements to southern Idlib as offensive looms

“There is a propaganda campaign in the West regarding some alleged competition between Russia and Iran in terms of military influence in Syria. But this is unlikely to happen. The military-technical cooperation agreements between Russia and Syria have been in effect for many years; they are implemented gradually and quite successfully. The current agreement between Iran and Syria is not going to affect the Russian-Syrian partnership. On the contrary, it will be an addition to this military-technical cooperation, since Iran has its own military-technical capabilities, which it will use in Syria. There can be no competition since these are not commercial contracts, but interstate agreements on military supplies and military personnel training. All this is aimed at specific political state goals: protecting Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Both Iran and Russia have one goal in Syria: to support the country in the fight against a common enemy, armed terrorist groups.”

Hossein Royvaran, Iranian political scientist, a lecturer at Tehran University, an expert on Middle Eastern and Arab countries, former head of National Iranian Radio and Television’s regional office in Beirut, also believes that the agreement won’t affect Iran-Russia relations since the Russian government supports the Syrian government:

“Russia will appreciate enhanced Iranian support to strengthen Syria, and will most likely support this cooperation.”

Royvaran pointed out that the Iranian forces’ position in Syria wouldn’t change either, because Iran didn’t want to create its own military base in the country:

“The Iranian military presence in Syria is based on the Syrian government’s decision on the need for such a presence. As soon as Damascus says that there is no such need, the Iranian military will leave Syria. Iran doesn’t want to stay in Syria and create its own military base there,” he said.
ALSO READ  US military turns the tables in northeast Syria, blocks Russian convoy

The Iranian expert believes that the Iran-Syria agreement is not going to affect Iran’s relations with other countries because this cooperation is formalized:

“Since the agreement doesn’t introduce any changes in relations between the two countries, it will not significantly affect Iran’s relations with other states. Military cooperation between Iran and Syria has been around for several years. The two countries signed military and economic cooperation agreements even before the Syrian crisis; the new agreement adds specific content to the cooperation between the two states. Therefore, we should consider this agreement a continuation and development of many years of cooperation; and it seems that cooperation will only expand with this new agreement. In this context, Israel’s possible reaction is of little significance to Iran. Israel cannot determine the policies of two independent states.”

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-will-help-secure-syrias-skies-against-israeli-attacks-report/

Iran starting to attack israeli assets after years of attacks from israel in Syria ? I guess Iran is ready to escalate which means lot of missiles around israel.


ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
2h
According to senior Israeli sources, the ship (in the Gulf) was hit "unequivocally" by Iran because it was an Israeli-owned ship. "We are thinking of an appropriate response. It will not pass in silence," they added

More like the British secret agents pretending to be Iranians launch attack on obviously israeli ship to provoke.

Standard imbeciles immediately point to nationality of the ship and proof of who was responsible... you know... Israeli ship = Iran did it... just like Russian ass hole poisoned = Putin did it... You know... solid sound environmentally friendly reasoning that would make Sherlock Holmes proud to be British.

GarryB wrote:More like the British secret agents pretending to be Iranians launch attack on obviously israeli ship to provoke.

Standard imbeciles immediately point to nationality of the ship and proof of who was responsible... you know... Israeli ship = Iran did it... just like Russian ass hole poisoned = Putin did it...  You know... solid sound environmentally friendly reasoning that would make Sherlock Holmes proud to be British.

Israeli/British ship at that. Double whammy target. I'd lay money that it was an ATGM from a drone, unlikely operated by Iran as they had nothing to gain. Again, a false flag.

Israel's response "It will not pass in silence" will be interesting as having said that they can't back down.

It could be Iran. A warning to their attacks. Israel can't really answer to that because its ships will be targeted even more in the middle east and they need it for oil supply.

Israel thinks it has the right to enter neighbours airspace and attack targets it thinks might be a danger to the.... I don't think expecting rational behaviour is going to be saving anyone.

It is a like a group of Saudi and Pakistani nationals flew aircraft into targets in the US so the US invades... Iraq and Afghanistan...

Isos wrote:It could be Iran. A warning to their attacks. Israel can't really answer to that because its ships will be targeted even more in the middle east and they need it for oil supply.

Most of oil imported by Israel comes from US, not really by tankers from Persian Gulf.

Israel Radar wrote:Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com
· 3 Std.
Israel officially informs US: IDF ordered to prepare for military strike on #Iran nuclear program, @amirbohbot  reports citing senior defense source; Tehran won't rush to cross nuke threshold as it understands the implications, but Israel is watching, he says

Jason Brodsky wrote:Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
·
3 Std.
#BREAKING: #Germany's new foreign minister today said there was no progress in sight for nuclear talks with #Iran, & due to the offer of the Iranian government negotiations have been thrown back six months. #G7

Israel Elint wrote:Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian
@manniefabian
·
3 Std.
IDF conducting a snap logistics drill this evening, during which movement of forces, transportation of weapons, and heavy military equipment will be noted throughout the country. The drill will also be attended by thousands of reservists who will be called to their units.

This time a little more serious for a war?
Russia straight distracted in places.

ASb wrote:ASB News / MILITARYJapanisches Satzzeichen
@ASBMilitary
· 12 Std.
Israeli media Channel 13 claims that USA has agreed to hold joint drills with Israel to simulate strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

This comes a few days after reports emerged from the same channel 13 that Mossad and Israeli MoD are going to ask USA to strike Iran.

Stupid move to try to force Iran make concessions during the ongoing resumed talks about iranian nuclear program.

It won't help.

And they still lack the means to really hit Iranian targets. They would need bunker buster munitions carried by f-15 and we all saw how f-15 is easy to destroy by AD forces.

Even with US help I suspect they would lose a few aircraft and I am not sure what effective damage they could do... except end the talks and drive Iran to develop nuclear weapons capability.

Isos wrote:Stupid move to try to force Iran make concessions during the ongoing resumed talks about iranian nuclear program.

I interpret it that way too. The timing makes it obvious.

Iran knows that the sanctions don't have the pull it once did because Iran is integrating into the Russian-Chinese led bloc and soon the Russian-Chinese bloc will have it own payment system.

The US is fucked internally and is on the decline, while the EU is more fucked than the US. You have refugees that came illegally into the EU becoming politicians.

Iran fully understands this and that is why they are making demands.

The threat of war is hollow and Iran knows, as does "The collective West" knows.

If Iran is attacked militarily, the US bases in the Middle East will be hit hard and the Jews in Israel will be hit hard. And there will be a major war that "The collective West" does not want.

In the end some kind of deal will be signed with Iran because the world is way different than it was in 2015 and before that.

Right now there is a powerful Russian-Chinese bloc that Iran is part of.

As Alexander points out, the US wanted to disengage from the Middle East to take on China but "the collective west" are horrible Poker/Chess players, that they cannot see the moves in the future. Now the US will engaged in three fronts, the Russian front, the Chinese front and the Iranian front. All Russia, China and Iran has to do is chip away at "the collective West".

https://sputniknews.com/20211222/israel-could-attack-irans-nuclear-programme-tomorrow-if-needed-says-air-force-future-head-1091726758.html

A war between the two sides , if it ever happens , is an air war and a missile war . With some submarines at sea firing some cruise missiles from the Red Sea . But the problem with air war , for both sides is the range of Aircraft loaded with munitions . Take for example the Israeli side , they are hardly going to use F15 , since easy pickings for Iranian AD . So they will try using F35 ! ( large fuel tanker is toast , 400 km from Iran border , so talk of it is largely propaganda ). Now using external drop tanks or munitions is not advised , since they will loose stealth, they have to discard fuel tanks before entering or near Iran airspace . Assuming they are able to refuel by another F35 ( or stealth drone refuelling ) , say over Baghdad , with internal tanks half empty , then being full , then they will theoretically extend range to reach target near say Isfahan . But unable to reach target near , say Mashhad in the East . Suppose they make it to within 80 km of target , with heaviest internal 2000 pound JDAM . Release it and it hits  the target ! By then they are discovered by Iran Radar ( because of open bomb bay doors )and are toast ! Meanwhile the 2000 pound JDAM , makes a dent in the surface of structure buried tens or hundreds of meter down protected with steel bars in the soil and explosive reactive armour on the surface, taking care of warhead ! The Americans will have the same problem , for the same reason . The maths does not work out . The Nuclear sites , known and unknown will be safe . They may hit other above ground targets with missiles , without risking aircraft and men . But so can Iran . In the end the result will be some damage to both sides , but not enough to defeat either side . Will not take out Iran Nuclear sites .Will the Americans spend billions rebuilding Israel ? Perhaps , better ask Trump , he is a builder , he can fix it and make a lot of  money out of it .

The Iran have TorM1. This increases the effort massive. Especially since the TORM1 location is not all known. This also means F-35 losses and pilots.

Tor and S-300 are around strategic targets like airports and nuclear plants. That's well known they keep them there while other systems are spread accross the country to protect other things like oil production and army bases.

They have just few tors and s-300 and should order more of them.

In a missile exchange between Iran and Israel, the worst hit would be Zionism.
Their security would be seriously weakened, facilitating attacks by the Palestinian resistance.
Not to mention, if Hezbollah enters the scene.

Eugenio Argentina wrote:In a missile exchange between Iran and Israel, the worst hit would be Zionism.
Their security would be seriously weakened, facilitating attacks by the Palestinian resistance.
Not to mention, if Hezbollah enters the scene.

Hamas and Palestine are very weak. They use small rocket that can't destroy a tinny house, let alone military infrastructure.

Hezbollah is better armed but mostly uses unguided rocket that would lack the precision for attacking precisely targets and could have limited damages.

Most worrying for Israel I guess is all the guided missiles that Iran sent in Syria, Irak and Yemen as well as long range suicide drones. Israel is defended by systems designed to counter ballistic rockets in great number but not against smart munition or low flying cruise missiles. That attack would be covered for sure by a massive rocket attack from hamas and hezbollah so that it occupies israeli AD while iranian missiles goes through.

And if Israel attacks nuclear infrastructures of Iran then Iran will attack theirs. Israeli are making way more enriched uranium that will be spread accross all the area if it goes boom.

Isos wrote:

Eugenio Argentina wrote:In a missile exchange between Iran and Israel, the worst hit would be Zionism.
Their security would be seriously weakened, facilitating attacks by the Palestinian resistance.
Not to mention, if Hezbollah enters the scene.

Hamas and Palestine are very weak. They use small rocket that can't destroy a tinny house, let alone military infrastructure.

Hezbollah is better armed but mostly uses unguided rocket that would lack the precision for attacking precisely targets and could have limited damages.

Most worrying for Israel I guess is all the guided missiles that Iran sent in Syria, Irak and Yemen as well as long range suicide drones. Israel is defended by systems designed to counter ballistic rockets in great number but not against smart munition or low flying cruise missiles. That attack would be covered for sure by a massive rocket attack from hamas and hezbollah so that it occupies israeli AD while iranian missiles goes through.

And if Israel attacks nuclear infrastructures of Iran then Iran will attack theirs. Israeli are making way more enriched uranium that will be spread accross all the area if it goes boom.

He didn't quite understand what I put in.
I meant that if Iran fired hundreds of its missiles at Israel, it would produce a great shock by weakening many of its defenses. For example, several control centers would be attacked.
That would make attacks by Palestinian groups more effective.
Obviously, the Palestinian forces have not very precise weapons, but as the Zionist defensive system is weakened, they would cause greater damage.
In addition, Palestinian commandos could be infiltrated in different sensitive points.

Not really. Taking out a command post doesn't change the difference of strenght between israel and palestine. Israeli soldiers on the front are equiped to deal with them on their own. They will still have tanks and vehicle to help.

Israeli aviation would bomb the shit out of Palestine also.

And Iran doesn't plan to attack first anyway.

So I was right. They plan and practice to bomb israeli nuclear power plants.

This is typical Iran. They are basically making a point of what will happen if Iranian facilities get bombed by USraelis.

It is much better for them to show that and make it clear that this is what they plan to do, because it might make Israel think twice before doing something stupid themselves that might make Iran want to do this for real.