Possible Iran/US war

They cannot use 3 dead Americans killed by Iranian allies as a casus belli, but they can use it to provoke Iran until they get their casus belli. That is what I fear. Of course the report from the Duran about how the US allegedly has secretly begged Iran to allow them to save face makes me hopeful, but I would not put too much faith in that. There are too many Zionst maniacs in Washington who would seriously want a big war with Iran, which could escalate much quicker than US citizens can build up enough resistance against it.

By saying they will respond at any kind of attacks against Iran soil, iranian people or iranian interest made all their plans useless unless they want a war.

They already hit americans when the go to war republicans were at power. It's not Biden that will scare them.

And it's not Iranians. They surrounded by enemy militias and Russia will be happy to export those geran 2 there. They build 300-500 per months according to some reports but barely use 50 of them each months. They have a huge stock that is waiting gor US targets and not Ukrainian ones.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is currently building hundreds of iranian ballistic missiles for themselves and for exporting to anyone fighting the US.

Add to this that combining the russian oil controled by Russia, the iranian will control the oil in the Hormuz and Venezuelan oil and the Houtis controling the Suez entry makes the west being hold by the balls. Their economy will shrink as soon as Iran starts firing its missiles.

All the tanker going inthe red sea will be destroyed and it will take years to rebuild it and rebuild arab oil fields.

By saying they will respond at any kind of attacks against Iran soil, iranian people or iranian interest made all their plans useless unless they want a war.

War seems to be the only thing the US is interested in and if Iran does have to go to war with the US... now would actually be a rather good time for them to fight because the US is distracted and Russia doesn't have any peace negotiations going with Europe or the US or Kiev so they would be more likely to actually help Iran out if asked.

Obviously the Russians wont start WWIII for Iran and will do everything they can to avoid direct conflict with the US and the west, but how about supplying Iran with a few systems to improve their air defence and their ability to strike warships at sea...

Russia benefited from Iranian drones which they now licence produce but they improved the electronics and navigation systems which might benefit Iran to get similar upgrades.

Their economy will shrink as soon as Iran starts firing its missiles.

The US wants to be bold and decisive and send a clear message, but any increase in costs for oil or even just trade for the west is going to damage them more than many people think.

The difference between a nuisance and something dangerous is numbers... what Russia can probably offer Iran is a coordination management system that allows a few controllers to direct a huge number of drones at one time to overwhelm the defences of a target and also cheap simple countermeasures to mount on their drones so each one isn't an easy kill. If the US needs to fire two missiles or more to deal with each drone then their ability to fight is greatly diminished.

The claims are : ( 1 ) American planes . ( 2 ) Only American planes . ( 3 ) Some flown from US soil . ( 4 ) Hit bases . ( 5 ) 85 bases . ( 6 ) Start of bombing campaign ( 7 ) No target hit inside Iran . The facts are :   ( 1 ) Attacked at night . ( 2 ) small warheads used . ( 3 ) One location contains perhaps small Rockets . ( 4 ) Reports of dead and injured .


https://en.mehrnews.com/news/211607/US-bases-in-Syria-Iraq-come-under-airstrikes

They didn't dare to touch the iranians.

^


Little comfort in this . Because IRGC personnel could have been killed in known Iranian bases . We have to wait and see , what Iranians say or do . No doubt attacks will continue and expand against US / UK / Zionist bases across the ME , irrespective of any unilateral Iranian response .

The problem for the US is that the reciprocal response to the US attacking and killing Iranians in Syria and Iraq is for Iran to attack and kill Americans in Syria and Iraq.

Something they would be capable of.

Americas problem is that despite being a super power and with soldiers and troops and assets in many many countries around the world and of course mostly located in hotspots everywhere (their main role is to create and maintain those hotspots keeping the temperature up to justify their presence), it also means they have to over react to everything because the reality is if they got attacked in dozens or even hundreds of places at one time there is not a lot they could do to stop those attacks... they would be spread too thin to protect everything and everyone.

Did you hear the joke about the Americans , who got blown up by IED ? ........I heard that they were spread too thinly on the ground !

https://spoilsofwar.substack.com/p/admiral-fabuloso-thumps-his-tub

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/03/us-iran-proxy-war-00139445

IMO this quazi war will go on till the end of 2024, so Biden can look no worse than now for his reelection; after that, all bets r off!
https://scotthorton.org/interviews/2-1-24-matthew-hoh-on-what-war-with-iran-would-be-like/

The state apparatus in USA , engaged in supporting Ukraine and now Israel in the ME , is now confronted by internal conflict in Texas . The Iranian state apparatus , engaged in supporting the resistance axis in the ME , is now confronted by internal conflict and disputed upcoming elections . It is like two boxers at the end of a bout , but both tired to throw any decisive punches .

Iran refusing to retaliate against Israel , even for directly targeting it's advisors . Yanks refusing to retaliate against Iran , for targeting it's bases . Iran announcing perhaps the withdrawal of advisors from Syria / Iraq . And the Yanks announcing perhaps the withdrawal of troops from the same .

Iran clearly will not engage in direct war . The resistance axis , applying pressure to Israel / Yanks . This level of pressure , may not be enough to stop the genocide in Gaza . In the absence of any real support from the rest of the Arabs and the world at large , then Gaza would cease to exist . The population driven out . This will not be the end of the story , but end of a chapter in this conflict .

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/beware-the-iran-pearl-harbor-moment/

Tsavo Lion wrote:https://www.theamericanconservative.com/beware-the-iran-pearl-harbor-moment/

Thanks for this. Good thing the lunatic Haley is unlikely to be the next prez...

The Americans are waiting for the right moment to attack . The countries they attacked in the ME , were without exception , undergoing civil disturbances . Easy job for their military . Biden showed his hands , during the Iranian protests , saying " ...we have to help Iranian people . " Trump is no different . As long as the Iranian military is united and organised , even without effective government or undergoing civil unrest or protests , then the cost of attack for them is unbearable . Therefore war unlikely now . But you never know , if situation changes in America , and Texas turns hot , and Iranian street protests turn hot and uncontrollable and Iranian military looses it's unity or cohesiveness then war is likely . And Americans need a diversion fast , then ......With the present situation of Iran backing the axis , and the genocide in Gaza , and the Israelis and Yanks and co , bombing freely , then the situation will not spread to general regional war .

I just saw this article an would like to know could the Russian Air Defense System with S 400 take down the American B-1?

What about the Chinese Air Defense System?

Does the Russian Military fear the B-1?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/america-s-b-1-bomber-teaches-iran-a-firepower-lesson/ar-BB1i1ozk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e222e4e18c27454eb70a51d7ad3baf94&ei=40

@ Tsavo Lion

The video is very good analysis . It shows Iran can not hit back against US carriers or bases with navy or intercept plane or bombers with AD or air force or send army into ME countries to deal with bases . Iran's Army are completely useless .The American army is invincible and superior . The American politicians and Generals should believe this excellent video and attack Iran asap .

The video is totally idiotic. Iran can hit targets anywhere in the Middle East with its IRBMs like the Sejjil with a 1500 kg payload.

A lot of these missiles are stored underground in tunnels carved in the mountains. Air strikes would be of no use against those.

Iran also has pretty advanced air defenses. They have the Rezonans long wave radar. They have imported S-300, Tor systems. And they have their own air defense systems which are not inferior to either of those.

Their air force is old. Like late Cold War era. But it is a lie that they don't have modern weapons for it. They can launch smart bombs and precision guided weapons from their Su-22 aircraft for example. They can make their own modern clones of the AIM-54 Phoenix missiles for the F-14 aircraft.

If the US bombed Iran, then US bases in the Middle East could be bombarded with massive missile salvos.

They make all the parts needed for even older F-4s to keep them in the air, & could do the same if it was worth having more modern F-16s in their AF (1 example is allegedly in their posession), as discussed earlier on another thread.

SolidarityWithRussia wrote:There are too many Zionst maniacs in Washington who would seriously want a big war with Iran, which could escalate much quicker than US citizens can build up enough resistance against it.

Unfortunately, that's true. Zionist tentacles are all over DC, even other countries. Haley and Lindsay Graham are among the worst.

Does the Russian Military fear the B-1?

The B-1B is the equivalent of the Tu-22M3... does the US fear the Backfire?

Does the US have a better air defence network that Russia does?

They will of course respect it... but MiG-31s with R-37Ms will eat them for breakfast... the B-1s based in Norway will likely never get off the ground because of Iskander strikes destroying the runways.

The sole fact that those F-14S are airborne, after those 50 years, is mindblowing.

One of the things driving the replacement of the F-14 by the F-18 was that the F-14 was too expensive to operate and maintain... and that is the more sophisticated D model Tomcat... not the older A model Tomcat the Iranians have.

Irans ability to keep those aircraft flying is astounding... a country like Germany or the UK probably couldn't do it without US assistance, but Iran... under western sanctions managed to keep them working is something you would put not just put on your CV... you would put it on sheets of paper and put it on walls and telephone poles near where you live.

They make all the parts needed for even older F-4s to keep them in the air, & could do the same if it was worth having more modern F-16s in their AF (1 example is allegedly in their posession), as discussed earlier on another thread.

I am biased but I would like to see them get the production licence to make MiG-35s and MiG-29Ms... and for them to then produce those aircraft for the countries that the US has screwed over with F-16s like Turkey and Venezuela and Pakistan... and eventually when it wakes up from the American nightmare, Argentina.

That new guy they have seems to be a Zelensky Trump type guy... you vote them in because they talk peace and better relations with the Russians and ending wars and bringing US soldiers home from places America does not need to bleed in, and then when they get into office it is sanctions on Russia and more wars...

Used to be called shell shock before the posh names

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
The U.S. Department of Defense has announced that since the October 7th Massacre by Hamas in Southern Israel, Attacks by Iranian-Backed Groups against U.S. Forces in Eastern Syria and Iraq have caused at least 186 American Casualties with 130 of those Labeled as Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBIs).

The first rifle I ever bought was a 1944 Mosin carbine and being rather green I took it out to a friends farm up on the side of a hill overlooking a large flat plain.

I remember the first shot... into a tree... the shockwave from the muzzle blast was a shock... the ringing in the ears and the roar of the blast rolling out over the plain.

The muzzle flash was about the size of a 2 litre bottle and was bright orange in the evening light.

Can't imagine what the impact of supersonic missiles with large explosive payloads would be like to experience.

Ironically these days officials would be forced to take this seriously but back in the day they were often considered cowards who were just faking it to get out of their duty.

War really is hell... not everyone is cut out to kill people, and you can't man up or toughen up when  you are broken like that... that is not how mental health works.

Is it wrong of men to not be so upset about these injuries to Americans... when was the last time America worried about the similar or worse injuries they were inflicting on others to force their way on something?

Of course that doesn't make it right.

The current losses by the Americans /British / Israelis , in terms of human losses or financial or diplomatic are all in the short term , bearable and sustainable . There is little or no political opposition by Americans or Europeans to wars and their participation . The axis forces and Palestinians alone at present , seem unable to either expel Americans from their bases or stop genocide against Palestinians . A projection of current trend , would mean an expansion of their bases in the ME , expulsion of more  Palestinians from their homes and  further siege and bombing of Yemen . The medium to long term future , will no doubt be different to what we see today .




https://en.mehrnews.com/news/212074/Region-in-future-won-t-belong-to-US-UK-Zionists-Velayati

Edit : link added .