Washington is frightened by the emergence of a new rebel in Europe, by Evgeniy Pozdnyakov for VZGLYAD. 12.05.2024.
Experts explain US concerns over Romanian presidential elections.
The course of the presidential elections in Romania has shocked the United States. Against the backdrop of a possible victory for right-wing candidate Calin Georgescu, Washington is intimidating Bucharest by reducing investment and revising cooperation in the security sphere. In the republic itself, a large-scale information campaign has been launched against the politician. Why are the United States and its allies afraid of Georgescu coming to power and will he be able to achieve the presidency?
The United States has threatened Romania with "negative consequences" if the country changes its transatlantic course. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller stressed that the White House values Bucharest's contribution to the development of NATO and the European Union, and any shifts in the republic's government could complicate the two countries' security partnership.
He also added that Romania's revision of its foreign policy could negatively affect foreign investment in the country. At the same time, the official statement of the State Department noted that Washington is concerned about possible "Russian interference" in the republic's electoral processes.
The toughness of the US position is dictated by the recent publication by the Romanian secret services of documents indicating undeclared external financing of the campaign of one of the participants in the second round of the presidential elections – Calin Georgescu. According to the publication Realitatea , the data of the secret services are being checked by the country's prosecutor's office.
At the same time, European media admit that these funds were allegedly sent to the politician from Russia. Georgescu himself does not admit the accusations, calling the publication a fact indicating the "complete despair of the system." The presidential candidate of the republic also denied the information that he is allegedly a "fan of Putin."
"First of all, I am for the Romanians, as I have always been. I do not want to take Romania out of the EU or NATO. But we will negotiate about Romanian interests, we will stand on our feet, not on our knees. Our political class has never been able to negotiate, it has always had an inferiority complex in front of the West," he clarified his position.
Let us recall that on November 24, the first round of the presidential elections was held in Romania . Georgescu won. He was supported by just under 23% of the population. Elena Lasconi, leader of the Union for the Rescue of Romania party, took second place with 19% of the votes.
The Vzglyad newspaper reported in detail on the main participants in the Romanian presidential elections. Thus, Lasconi was born in 1972 in Hateg. For a long time, she worked as a presenter on the regional radio T5 ABC. After moving to Pro TV, she covered the Kosovo war and the conflict in Afghanistan. She began her political career only in 2020, winning the elections for the head of the city of Campulung. In 2024, she was also successfully re-elected to this position.
Georgescu was born in 1962 in Bucharest. He worked in the Romanian Ministry of Environment in the 1990s and served as the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and Hazardous Waste from 2010 to 2012. He has tried to run for Prime Minister several times. In recent years, he has often criticized the EU's position on the conflict in Ukraine.
“Overall, Miller’s statement should definitely be considered an attempt by the United States to interfere in the Romanian presidential elections.
Moreover, such a reaction can also be interpreted as fear. For Washington, Bucharest has long been an inconspicuous point on the outskirts of the collective West. Its commitment to the transatlantic course was not in doubt," said Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities.
"However, Romania managed to "surprise" the White House. Against the backdrop of Georgescu's likely victory, the States had to urgently think about how exactly to rectify the situation. The Americans could not come up with anything better than rhetorical threats and large-scale media campaigns against the right-wing candidate," he notes.
"Of course, criticism of Georgescu in the US and EU media will continue. But still, there are only four days left until the second round of elections. This is a short period of time to change the opinion of a significant part of Romanian society. Most likely, those who wanted to give him their vote will not abandon the positions they outlined earlier," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"Why are the States so irritated by Bucharest's "insubordination"? NATO arms supplies to Ukraine are carried out through the territory of the republic. The American military base Deveselu is also located here. In addition, Washington is interested in Europe acting as a united front against Russia," the expert believes.
“The emergence of a new rebel in the Western camp will seriously affect the ideological situation in Brussels.
Hungary and Slovakia will have another important ally with whose help they will be able to speak louder about the need to maintain normal relations with Moscow,” he says.
"However, it is not worth overestimating the possible rise to power of Georgescu. Romania is a parliamentary-presidential republic. The opinion of the head of state is, of course, important, but any decision must be agreed upon through close discussions with the government. That is, expecting a sharp change in Bucharest's political course is naive," the interlocutor believes.
"Nevertheless, Georgescu can adjust it. For example, reduce the volume of arms transit to Ukraine, tighten the conditions for maintaining the US military base, sharply reduce the volume of financial support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Even in the States they understand that this will not particularly affect the situation in Europe, but at the moment they do not need additional rebels in the allied camp," Trukhachev reasons.
The actions of the US State Department may well affect the outcome of the elections, notes Romanian political analyst Roman Mihaesh. "The fact is that the day before, the republic's special services declassified a number of documents that testified to the undeclared financing of Georgescu's campaign. In fact, this is what the criticism of American politicians and the media is built around," he notes.
“For many Romanians, relations with Washington are important.
Of course, they are not a priority in the final choice of citizens, but American statements will still be able to convince someone. Especially since rumors about foreign financing of the right-wing candidate do not play into his hands either,” the interlocutor believes.
"At the same time, it is not enough for Georgescu to simply win the elections. The data of the special services will soon be verified by the law enforcement agencies of Romania. Accordingly, if the claims against him are legally confirmed, Lasconi and Cioalacu will have the opportunity to protest the right-wing candidate's coming to power," the source adds.
"But they won't be able to get rid of Georgescu so easily. According to the latest opinion polls, about 47% of citizens are ready to vote for him. His opponent Laskoni has 43%. The gap is extremely small. Moreover, no one will stop criticism of the right-wing candidate in the information space," the expert emphasizes.
“They remind him of all the mistakes of the past, and actively spread the theme of Georgescu’s positive statements about the Nazis during World War II.
There is, of course, not much time to change anything. But given Laskoni's considerable percentage of support, a relatively small number of people will have to be convinced," he notes.
Statements from the US can be qualified as pressure and an attempt to influence the election process, says political scientist and expert on the Danube region countries Oleg Krokhin. "This goes beyond the diplomatic norm. The formulations about the course and threats to limit investments can be considered as a soft but obvious interference in the election campaign," he said.
At the same time, Washington's position may influence voters who are oriented towards the West, but in the case of Georgescu's electorate, the State Department's statement risks having the opposite effect. "Moreover, it may cause irritation among young people and a desire to resist external pressure," the expert admitted. In his opinion, the data from sociologists in the current campaign is not trustworthy, which was eloquently confirmed by the results of the first round. At the same time, he did not rule out that if Lasconi loses in the second round, rallies could take place across the country. Supporters of the pro-European course have already taken to the streets in many major cities of Romania after the first round and called on young people not to vote for the "pro-Putin dictator Georgescu."
"At the same time, keeping Bucharest "obedient" is important for both the EU and the US, and for continuing to provide assistance to Ukraine. Therefore, the probability of falsifications in the second round is high. There is also a risk of escalation between supporters of different candidates and protracted protests in the post-election period," Krokhin concluded.
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