Russian military operation in Ukraine #63

If you want these attacks to end, then you need to defeat Ukraine and fast.

Unless Russia cannot mobilize enough troops, the economic aspect is a side concern here. Once you deal with Ukraine the temp pinch will go away better a short pinch then. a low drawn out slow bleed.

No, if we want these attacks to end, we have to retaliate against the US. This is all being done on their orders and with their weapons and their specialists operating clandestinely.

You seem to have gotten it into your head that there are some 'rules' or that there is some 'game' being played.

But there is nothing of the sort. When was the last time that the US played according to whoever's rules or whoever's game? When Russia is attacked - and it is Russia that decides what consitututes an attack on it - then the only rules that are relevant are Russia's, namely what it will do in response.
And if you don't want Russia to do that in response, so then you better not attack it, not directly, not indirectly, not physically, not verbally, not in your imagination, not in any single way, if you don't want to have whatever unpleasantness done back to you. The only thing that matters in this 'game' is what your opponent is prepared to do in response and what they are capable of doing. That's it.

The issue is that Russia is not doing anything back at all. This could be justified to the Russian population if the Russian armed forces were capable of protecting them, and protecting themselves, but as the attacks scale up that assumption is going to break down.
So Putin's going to have some decisions to make. I don't expect that we're going to have any less attacks on schools or that the scale of provocations are going to ebb away tomorrow.

to put this into perspective you guys STILL haven't captured half of Charsiv yar, do the math on how long you guys have been there

Literally from a strategic point of view, you guys can get more than enough men to force yourselves in and encircle hundreds of thousands of Ukie troops, they are all concentrated in specific spots, if you encircle and eliminate just half of the manpower Ukraine has on the Donbass front, Ukraine would literally crumble as it would not be able to replace those men in time before you could sweep forward..

the Ukie army is in a perfect position to be massively encircled but the russians cannot do it because they don't have the manpower as Putin refuses to declare war footing to this day.

I really do feel bad for those Russian troops being force to fight with tied hands, and the chance to defeat Ukraine soundly has been there for over a year but your leader will just not do what needs to be done

No-one's interested in mobilizing the entire society and economy like WW2. It also won't stop these terrorist attacks either. Everything you've written is supposition. Longer-range systems can be supplied to the Ukraine and then more NATO missile units pretending to be Ukrainians too - the collapse of the Ukrainian military won't dissuade anyone in the slightest.

If Russia doesn't want NATO to attack its territory then it will have to attack its territory back and see if they're really ready to play this game when we have the Oreshnik and Kinzhal and a massive air defense network and they don't. We would have to do this anyway if Trump didn't agree to cease all ATACMS, HIMARS, etc.. strikes immediately. But as it stands we may have to start early instead and then when Trump does get in, see if he's willing to cut it out if we cut it out.

Its no that hitting Ukraine does nothing, Putin isn't allowing the military to hit Ukraine hard enough, and where it hurts and the only time he ever does let them is one strike in retaliation.

When you are applying pressure to keep the pressure up you need to keep your hold, not let it go and only reapply once and a while

Not true at all Flaming, I have heard the calls.

Putin isn't going to strike at a NATO state, and I understand why he won't, the risk is far to high, its exactly why a NATO state will never attack Russia from its own turf, the risk is way too high.

You take out Ukraine, you take out the launch pad.

To be blunt if your unwilling to pay a price, then there is no point in complaining when things happen you don't like when the issue can be resolved by just accepting "well we are going to have to take a temporary economic hit.

I am not speaking in anything but cold hard facts.

But it's not about the Ukraine, for the umpteenth time

When someone wants to kill you and they send hitman after hitman after you, do you keep killing the hitmen that come after you in the hope that eventually the guy ordering hits runs out of them or runs out of money?

No.

"When you see that a fight is inevitable.. you stand around and absorb blows and do your best to passively defend yourself in the hope that your opponent changes his mind"
Putin 2025?

In the same way the Ukrainians the US has in power aren't sovereign. Nor do they care about their own people or the consequences to their own country. They probably care about their own lives, but they know those are forfeit if they lose the war, and their only hope not to lose the war is to get Russia into a war with the US, all the better that there are people in the White House who think the same way.

And it's simply not up to Russia whether such a war will take place. A war only needs one willing party, not both.

Anytime after midnight Washington time might be a perfect time to hit any US forces in Europe because those guys aren't getting paid if there is a government shutdown and I doubt they'd have the motivation to attack.  So yeah, it may be a good idea to settle scores with western advisors until after midnight tonight Washington DC time.

and you don't seem to understand IT IS about Ukraine, Ukraine is what this all revolves around, you start trading blows with NATO in actual NATO turf when no missiles where launched from them. You are begging for the Nuke exchange.

as I said before it will NOT end at one attack each.

You might not like it, you hate it I am sure, but if you want these attacks to stop. Taking out Ukraine is your only course of action

If you mean the gov shutdown, no the troops still get paid. There are provisions for this type of thing

wanna try that one again?

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2024-12-19/troop-pay-government-shutdown-2024-budget-negotiation-16221731.html

This isn't from some Putinist website, this is from Star and Stripes

Not true at all Flaming, I have heard the calls.

Putin isn't going to strike at a NATO state, and I understand why he won't, the risk is far to high, its exactly why a NATO state will never attack Russia from its own turf, the risk is way too high.

You take out Ukraine, you take out the launch pad.

To be blunt if your unwilling to pay a price, then there is no point in complaining when things happen you don't like when the issue can be resolved by just accepting "well we are going to have to take a temporary economic hit.

I am not speaking in anything but cold hard facts.

Look, I'm sure the Kremlin themselves will want to agree with you. I'm sure they themselves want to wait for Trump, and would be willing to cover up the school strike if they knew they could. But they are not omnipotent. They will have to respond to the demands of their own society and their own military once the pressure gets too much.
Up to and including retaliating against NATO territory, and you better believe it. I don't know what calls you heard, but you're dealing with human beings here, not some computer program or whatever. They change their minds, they act on emotions, and the situation changes too. There are different factions in the Kremlin too, just as there are in the White House.

Again, it's Russia that ultimately sets the rules, about who is allowed to attack it and from where. If Russia disallows it, on pain of death, then that's the way it's going to go. Being too lax on this is what has allowed NATO the option of striking from what you call 'the launch pad'. There is no actual difference whether NATO attacks Russia from its own territory, from international waters or from the territory of a 3rd nation. If Russia really wants to play the same 'game', then it can load up some cargo ships registered to Yemen with Kalibr missile containers and let loose volleys onto targets in the US - but the US is going to perceive that as a direct Russian attack on itself anyway and retaliate appropriately so why bother? Might as well do it officially.

You might not like it, you hate it I am sure, but if you want these attacks to stop. Taking out Ukraine is your only course of action

No, there is no reason to change the timetable on the Ukraine and risk more of our soldiers being killed quicker.
The actual course of action is to demonstrate to the US and NATO that they will not win a missile exchange with Russia. It can end in nukes of course, but only if the US decides that mutual suicide is a more honorable option. Because the easiest option for it will be to simply dial down escalation and cut the HIMARS and ATACMS strikes on Russian territory.

Flamming Python

Well I think he will have to as everyone can see that hitting the Ukraine does nothing, and that the Ukraine itself is but a puppet on strings.
So what's the point of retaliating against it if it doesn't re-establish deterrence?

There's much more that can be done and that was supposed to be done 2 years ago already. First thing completely finish off electric system in the country. You can put much more pressure on the population by worsening their living standards. It's not like you're fighting to win in a popularity contest. Anyway, nobody is Ukraine objects or losses their sleep when their army kills civilians in Russia.

Flamming Python
None of the attacks you named were successful, apart from the killing of the general.

Attack on Kursk airport was, but that is not the point. Originally, it was told that if Ukraine uses western long range weapons, they will get hell of a response. At this point, Russian government (Putin) projects so much weakness, it looks fucking stupid.

Flamming Python
And while the killing of a general is part of war, the targeting of a school with American missiles as part of a Western campaign of escalation and provocation is not part of war, it's a massive vile act of terrorism, and can only provoke an extremely visceral reaction from Russian society that the Kremlin might not be able to control. And it can be followed with more attacks tomorrow. If Russian air defenses were able to ensure security then that would be one thing, but we see that targets can always be chosen that they don't cover effectively.

They do it because they're not afraid and they can. And, no, there will not be any retaliation directly on NATO countries. Even strikes on Ukraine are (like one from this morning) described as retaliatory directly by MoD official telegram account. I mean, WTF?!
Also, why the **** were Steve Rosenberg from BBC and CNN journalist allowed in yesterday's Q&A with Putin and allowed to ask questions, while Russian journalists are treated like pieces of shit in the west?
It really looks like Putin wants to get some kind of deal with Trump, and for it Russia is taking the punches and don't do anything.

Attack on Kursk airport was, but that is not the point. Originally, it was told that if Ukraine uses western long range weapons, they will get hell of a response. At this point, Russian government (Putin) projects so much weakness, it looks fucking stupid.

They will get a hell of a response. It's nearly inevitable. And not just them.
It's up to Trump to avoid that by ordering all this stuff to cease immediately. Then we can proceed from there and avert war.

They do it because they're not afraid and they can. And, no, there will not be any retaliation directly on NATO countries. Even strikes on Ukraine are (like one from this morning) described as retaliatory directly by MoD official telegram account. I mean, WTF?!

Naturally, because the Russian authorities want to wait to see if Trump will order the missile strikes to stand down

The objective of the hard-liners in Washington is not to allow Trump that opportunity by escalating the situation before that. And it looks like they will succeed as the only way the Kremlin could delay retaliation is if it was able to shrug-off and effectively defend itself against all provocations. It doesn't look like this will be the case. The 'Ukrainians', because some people here really do insist on using this term, can always find undefended schools or other civilian structures, use some illegal means of war or whatever. They are willing to do so, and they have the capability.

Bodies exchange.
Rate 503:42
It speaks for itself.

And 40 of the 42 are North-Koreans.

@Flamming Python

Trump will try to finish this war, asap. This would start his presidency with a bang and he would fulfill his campaign promises.
Proposed terms of the agreement will not be easy on Russia. I have a feeling that NATO in Ukraine will not be off the table, but only temporarily frozen for x amount of year or, at the very least, Ukraine will be armed to the brim and also full 4 regions for Russia will not happen.
While territorial gains are not as important, demilitarization is. Since, accepting those terms would be treasonous, attacks will restart. I can't really see what is Putin trying to gain here, unless he is ready to sign some sort of a deal.

@Flamming Python

Trump will try to finish this war, asap. This would start his presidency with a bang and he would fulfill his campaign promises.
Proposed terms of the agreement will not be easy on Russia. I have a feeling that NATO in Ukraine will not be off the table, but only temporarily frozen for x amount of year or, at the very least, Ukraine will be armed to the brim and also full 4 regions for Russia will not happen.
While territorial gains are not as important, demilitarization is. Since, accepting those terms would be treasonous, attacks will restart. I can't really see what is Putin trying to gain here, unless he is ready to sign some sort of a deal.

Of course he will sign another Minsk only under a different name. There is no chance even for 4 full regions, unless Russia takes them in combat. There is no chance for demilitarization of Ukraine, etc. Unless Ukraine capitulates.

No-one cares about Trump's or Kellogg's or Orban's peace plan or whatever. I mean, of course it will be great if Trump decides that he wants to draw down Vietnam style, cut the losses, and so on. But no-one has such high expectations. I think everyone understands that no US president can possibly undertake such a decision, at least not yet.

The only thing to consider is, will Trump stop these missile strikes, immediately and without any preconditions - or not?
If he does, the war can be confined to the Ukraine, if he doesn't, then it can't, it will expand.

That's really all there is to it.

Flamming Python
No-one cares about Trump's or Kellogg's or Orban's peace plan or whatever. I mean, of course it will be great if Trump decides that he wants to draw down Vietnam style, cut the losses, and so on. But no-one has such high expectations. I think everyone understands that no US president can possibly undertake such a decision, at least not yet.

The only thing to consider is, will Trump stop these missile strikes, immediately and without any preconditions - or not?
If he does, the war can be confined to the Ukraine, if he doesn't, then it can't, it will expand.

And gain what exactly from it? As a "gesture of good will"? For that, you have too look in the directory under the letter P.
If he gives something to Russia without getting anything in return, he will come under pressure at home. Even from Republicans. Also, it is not his style. He can't claim win or big success just by stopping.

And, at the end, there's this, but it might be a false story, as outgoing administration tries to put even more pressure on him:

https://www.ft.com/content/35f490c5-3abb-4ac9-8fa3-65e804dd158f

... just another whine&doom session with the same pussies cast for the job ...
Aren't you bored with that in some self-esteem way? dunno scratch
Russia faces 15k road accident deaths a year.
Makes 40 a day - just if you are going to ask.
Sure, 5 sorrowful victims of a terror attack should make a difference, and push Putin ballistic ordering an Armageddon.
I have said that before - half of you are clear psycho, while the remaining half - half should consider examination - just in case.
Just saying - don't shoot the messenger!

Yeah Putin ordering a ballistic missile strike on US targets is Armaggeddon

But the US striking Russian military and civilian targets is not grounds for Armaggeddon. It's just road-kill.

Sorry ALAMO but you have to learn to put the responsibility where it belongs. And the responsibility for the consequences too.

And gain what exactly from it? As a "gesture of good will"? For that, you have too look in the directory under the letter P.
If he gives something to Russia without getting anything in return, he will come under pressure at home. Even from Republicans. Also, it is not his style. He can't claim win or big success just by stopping.

And, at the end, there's this, but it might be a false story, as outgoing administration tries to put even more pressure on him:

https://www.ft.com/content/35f490c5-3abb-4ac9-8fa3-65e804dd158f

Gain avoiding a war.

Russia destroys Patriots, Luch bureau, and Boryspil - OFC a high value target was there or no need for the Iskander or Kinzhals

Can you explain to me what this Luch bureau and Borispol were doing unmolested for the last 3 years in the first place?

Was Russia saving these targets in case the US decided to launch missiles at Russia?

Yeah, that will show 'em

The deterrence value of these strikes are nil and so these facilities should have better been cratered in the first week of the SMO.

The actual explanation of course is that these strikes were simply carried out to give the impression of retaliation. In actuality retaliation is simply being delayed. And for all we know this Luch bureau could long already be just a hole in the ground.
And I sympathize with this strategy, I understand the overriding importance of discipline and of political strategy, I'm just not sure Russia will be able to wait 3 weeks if what happened today carries on.