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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63

    ALAMO
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    Post  ALAMO Sat Nov 30, 2024 10:35 pm

    We also need to appreciate that these missiles are not SLBMs or ICBMs and are more like ISKANDER and other SRMs

    Yes, that is very true, being part of what I have named "we know shit".
    And addressed the fact, that if we are facing a sort of Avangard system - the range is misleading.
    Still, there is not a single chance to deliver a 20t payload at any reasonable middle range - because the most monstrous piece made with the help of Russkie tech in South Korean.
    Delivering 8t up to 3kkm (3.5?)
    Someone has pointed out a quite interesting observation : the terminal payload trajectory is different to anything we have seen till now.
    Less talk, more observing.

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    Post  Big_Gazza Sun Dec 01, 2024 12:34 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 13 30nov210

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    Post  Arrow Sun Dec 01, 2024 10:42 am

    Delivering 8t up to 3kkm (3.5?) wrote:

    In my opinion, 8 tons is maybe for targets in North Korea. With a range of 500 km. A throw mass of 8 tons over 3000 km is impossible. Unless South Korea has revolutionized missile technology and even overtaken Russia. Oreshnik is probably a fairly large IRBM since they say the range is 5000 km. It probably weighs around 30 tons. Of course, without a photo, it's just speculation. We won't find out anytime soon. Especially since Ukraine is not firing at the moment. Western countries are defending Russian territory.
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Dec 01, 2024 10:47 am

    You might be right - it is an ICBM pretending not to be one.

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    Post  Arrow Sun Dec 01, 2024 10:54 am

    You might be right - it is an ICBM pretending not to be one. wrote:

    In general, these boundaries are very fluid. Add a larger payload and an ICBM becomes an IRBM. A similar reverse analogy. The R 36M2 missile with a lightweight 15F176 monoblock achieved a range of 15,000 to 16,000 km. Very Happy

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    Post  LMFS Sun Dec 01, 2024 12:20 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Now let the West think about what it wants to do next. They're being given time for them to rethink their latest decisions.

    And that thinking is what allows the dynamics to go in favor of Russia. That is why Russia's escalation is so painfully slow, they are playing for time.

    ucmvulcan wrote:Russia has got to allow the Syrians to drive the US out of northeastern Syria.

    Certainly in the menu, if the escalation continues. But I think it is too soon and the West has still not managed to create new, substantial risks for Russia. But if they start delivering long range weapons together with delivery means able to cause real attrition, I assume this may be very well the case.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Dec 01, 2024 12:34 pm

    This is what was left after Kinzhal struck a deeply buried command post ...

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 13 Zrzut_26


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 13 Zrzut_25

    The date was April 11th.

    Not sure if the lack of leafes on the surrounding trees correspond to the strike itself, or were caused by fighting on the ground.

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    Post  kvs Sun Dec 01, 2024 12:55 pm

    Looks like a different time of the year from the existing greenery. But the same scene.

    You can see how there is no conical crater but a mangled collapse into an underground void. The energy was not deposited at the surface.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Dec 01, 2024 12:59 pm

    It is a different season for sure. Pre-strike looks like full Summer time, while the other was April 11th.
    But there are leafs on the trees on the right, and naked ones on the left - that was my unanswered question.
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    Post  lyle6 Sun Dec 01, 2024 1:36 pm

    It was a nuke. look at underground nuclear test subduction craters.
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 13 Huron_King_Crater_2
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Dec 01, 2024 1:50 pm

    You really have some sort of nuke fetish bro Laughing Laughing Laughing

    By the way, I have located it.

    48.577547333642805, 37.85728813483982

    The crater itself has a diameter of about 70m ...

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    Post  lyle6 Sun Dec 01, 2024 1:56 pm

    70m. And its not a nuke they say. Razz
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    Post  ALAMO Sun Dec 01, 2024 2:07 pm

    It targeted underground structure. Collapsed with ha high probability, which would mean the earth to fall down.

    If we will consider a terminal mass of Iskander at 2t, and Ma10 speed - it makes a 2.65T of TNTT equivalent.
    That's a hell of energy.

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    Post  Isos Sun Dec 01, 2024 2:11 pm

    No trees down. Not a nuke. A weapon storage area was present there for sur, very likely deep underground. Atcms probably.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Dec 01, 2024 2:13 pm

    The official statement calls it the "deep buried heavily reinforced command center of the Ukrainian army".

    And it makes a sense - there is a helipad for 3 helicopters slightly west of it.


    Last edited by ALAMO on Sun Dec 01, 2024 2:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  lyle6 Sun Dec 01, 2024 2:14 pm

    You need 42t of high explosives to produce a similar crater.

    Command bunkers are not used to store ordinances for obvious reasons.
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    Post  higurashihougi Sun Dec 01, 2024 4:10 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 13 46901610

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    Post  Mir Sun Dec 01, 2024 4:56 pm

    Alamo wrote:You really have some sort of nuke fetish bro Laughing Laughing Laughing

    The fetish has finally turned into an obsession! pwnd

    Those underground nuclear test explosions in Nevada looks like this - perfectly round craters as found on the moon.
    They even trained the astronauts in those craters Laughing

    Clearly with the Kinzhal attack on the underground command centre only the underground structure caved in (imploded) from the Mach 10 shock wave.
    No circular crater was formed from a typical underground nuclear explosion. Go look at the Tsar Bomba's aftermath - an atmospheric explosion that left a huge round crater.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 13 Nuclea12

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    Post  lyle6 Sun Dec 01, 2024 6:01 pm

    Actually, now that I think about it, a hardened bunker will vastly increase the yield required to produce the crater we see. They needed 42t mines to produce the 70m Messines mine craters but that was mostly soft sand and blue clay. It is also not enough to collapse the bunker - it has to be pulverized to dust because even crushed rubble will be rigid enough to prevent a complete collapse.
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    Post  Isos Sun Dec 01, 2024 6:35 pm

    If you zoom on the picture of the strike in Ukraine you will see 2 half circles connected by a straight "wall" on the back part. It's nothing like those nuk craters. It's most likely the bunker shaped like this that fell after the strike.

    Also I doubt it's a real bunker most likely a dig in hole with some concrete.

    My bet is it what a storage area for atacms with internal explosion.

    Edit: if you look closely at the top right circle, you will see that hole has two floors.

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    Post  ALAMO Sun Dec 01, 2024 8:12 pm

    Dynamic of territorial gains.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 13 Photo367
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 13 Photo368

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    Post  kvs Sun Dec 01, 2024 9:41 pm

    A little detail about the nuke testing site "craters". The nuke plasma ball is spherical and the void it creates at those test sites is nearly
    spherical as well. So we have a nice symmetric collapse apparent at the surface. If you tried to pull the same sort of thing with a
    cubic void in the ground you would never get a conical slumping. Anyway, the Kinzhal does not create the void, instead it causes sufficient
    damage for the existing underground structure to collapse.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Dec 02, 2024 12:08 am

    Rumours that the next shipment of US aid will include Abrams and 120mm DU rounds. Implying either that standard US rounds have problems against Russian armour or they have run out/got a surplus of the normal rounds.

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    Post  ucmvulcan Mon Dec 02, 2024 12:11 am

    be kinda sad to be a dock worker in Odessa when those rounds start cooking off. I wonder if the Ukronazis will be complaining about the radiation sickness.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Dec 02, 2024 12:18 am

    Indeed. No doubt there will be a major Russian Intel op to track them. 

    Maybe they will not get to Ukraine but meet an unfortunate 'accident' in Europe.

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