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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Fri Nov 29, 2024 2:10 pm

    @Alamo

    I am simply quoting what other sites have written.
    Pukrainian sources say 11.4 Mach

    The Rubezh weighs 36,000 kg acc to one source. Yet other sources (Jamestown haha) say it is 80 tons. Obviously it's not that, but it is at least some way related to Oreshnik.

    Payload means the weight of the explosive carried.

    But the vehicle itself has a mass. Obviously most is carried in outer casing, fuel etc.
    But it didn't travel a huge distance, just 700 km. It MAY be a 2 stage rocket. So that would suggest a reasonable part of the  mass hit Yuzmash
    ie more arnaments contained than we would have expected prior to Yuzmash.

    Numerous sources suggest 6 x 6 subarnaments.
    Numerous sources suggest heavy metal rods/balls were carried to increase the kinetic performance. Rather than actual explosives.
    So it could all be very different to past payloads.

    The whole point of the Oreshnik is that it can carry a lot of sub arnaments. So 6 x 6 is the estimate produced by a few sources.
    In fact, the videos support this. 6 projectiles burning at a time, and 6 batches of them raining down.
    Numerous sources highlight Oreshnik's far superior ability in number of arnaments carried vs other missiles.

    Here are some links. May well be bullshit ones. May be useable. But they are a reference for people.
    https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/RUSSIA-MISSILE/gdpzknajgvw/
    https://en.topwar.ru/254291-brsd-oreshnik-s-konvencionalnoj-boevoj-chastju-svershilos.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targetable_reentry_vehicle
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-26_Rubezh
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:W87_MIRV.jpg    (this is a US Peacekeeper MIRV)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W87   (one US missile's cone estimated weight is 200 to 270kg, which begs the question does Oreshnik have 36 cones of a significantly higher mass  due to heavy metal filling).
    https://www.jejaktapak.com/2016/07/21/rs-26-rubezh-rusia-menakutkan-dunia/  (pic of a Rubezh with trailer).

    A normal missile has guidance systems, casings, much fuel, decoys PLUS the arnaments and subcasings and the explosives.
    Whereas Oreshnik is a fundamentally different approach if it is just going for kinetic impact.

    The pictures give an indicator of a MIRV's possible size.
    The questions are:-
    Firstly how many of those MIRVs were onboard.
    And what the mass of each of the  arnaments was.

    Carrying 18 tons to the destination, even 700km sounds a lot.

    TLDR
    Even the experts are providing massively conflicting info.
    It may be that this was a BIG missile. But filled with heavy metal arnaments - instead of huge amounts of fuel. Because it was a relatively short journey.
    Putin compares it to a nuke in ability to damage.
    The certainly appears to be evidence supporting it.
    The question is HOW damaging.
    Any comments are welcome. Altho no recipes are required thanks. I've always thought cooking and shopping are for fags.😎

    Why would Putin say it is comparable to a nuke if it is not?
    My view is that it IS comparable.

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    Post  franco Fri Nov 29, 2024 2:31 pm

    Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (from November 23 to November 29, 2024)

    From November 23 to November 29, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out massive and 32 group strikes with high-precision air, sea, land-based weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on energy facilities that ensure the operation of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, industrial enterprises producing strategic military products, as well as the infrastructure of military airfields, places of assembly and storage of unmanned aerial vehicles aircraft and unmanned boats, arsenals, ammunition depots, locations of Armed Forces formations, foreign instructors, technicians and mercenaries. In addition, two launchers with experimental ballistic missiles "Grom-2", as well as a launcher and a transport-loading vehicle of the Ukrainian anti-ship complex "Neptune" were destroyed. All the goals of precision strikes have been achieved.

    During the week, the units of the North group of forces continued to destroy the Armed Forces formations in the Kursk region. Air strikes, unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery fire hit the manpower and equipment of two tank, five mechanized, two airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and four air defense brigades. In the Kharkiv direction, units of the mechanized, motorized infantry, two airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a brigade of the defense Ministry and a border detachment of the border guard Service of Ukraine were defeated. During the week in the area of responsibility of the North group of forces, enemy losses amounted to 2,420 military personnel, 10 tanks, 32 armored combat vehicles, including a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle manufactured by the United States, two Marder armored vehicles and a Fuchs armored personnel carrier manufactured by Germany, 105 vehicles, three multiple rocket launchers HIMARS and two MLRS manufactured in the USA, as well as 20 field artillery guns.

    As a result of active actions, units of the Zapad group of troops liberated the settlement of Kopanki in the Kharkiv region. The manpower and equipment of five mechanized, airborne brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade, two air defense brigades and a National Guard brigade were defeated. 28 counterattacks of the AFU assault groups were repelled. The enemy lost more than 3,150 troops, two tanks, 13 armored combat vehicles, including three M113 armored personnel carriers manufactured by the United States, 28 vehicles and 18 field artillery guns, including six 155 mm howitzers manufactured by NATO countries. 10 electronic warfare stations and 21 field ammunition depots were destroyed.

    The units of the Southern Group of Troops occupied more advantageous lines and positions, defeated the formations of four mechanized, motorized infantry, mountain assault, two airmobile, amphibious assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and a defense brigade. We repelled eight counterattacks by AFU units. The enemy's losses amounted to over 2,790 military personnel, five armored combat vehicles, 19 vehicles, 10 field artillery guns, eight of them Western-made. Eight field ammunition depots were destroyed.

    As a result of decisive actions, units of the Center group of troops liberated the settlements of Novaya Ilyinka and Vorovskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic. The manpower and equipment of seven mechanized, infantry, two jaeger brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade, three defense brigades and a National Guard brigade were defeated. 53 enemy counterattacks were repelled. During the week, the losses of Ukrainian armed formations in this area amounted to over 2,910 servicemen, two tanks, seven armored combat vehicles, 31 vehicles and 27 field artillery guns.

    As a result of active actions, units of the Vostok group of troops liberated the Razdolnoye settlement of the Donetsk People's Republic. The formations of two mechanized, mountain assault, artillery brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and six air defense brigades were defeated. Eight counterattacks of the AFU assault groups were repelled. The enemy lost up to 960 soldiers, six tanks, including two Leopard made in Germany, four armored combat vehicles, 25 vehicles and 14 field artillery guns.

    Units of the Dnipro group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, four defense brigades and a National Guard brigade. The losses of the Armed Forces amounted to 390 soldiers, 23 vehicles, five field artillery guns, of which three 155 mm M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States.

    During the week, 34 Ukrainian servicemen were captured on the line of contact, 17 of them surrendered in the Kursk direction.

    Air defense means shot down a long-range guided missile "Neptune", ten operational tactical missiles ATACMS manufactured in the United States, 15 guided aircraft bombs "Hammer" manufactured in France and American-made JDAM, two HIMARS rockets manufactured in the United States and 353 unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type.

    In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 36913 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19562 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1497 multiple rocket launchers, 18708 field artillery and mortars, 28,868 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

    https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12539477@egNews

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    Post  franco Fri Nov 29, 2024 2:44 pm

    Russian MoD reporting 12,620 Ukrainian casualties over the past 7 days.

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    Post  franco Fri Nov 29, 2024 3:02 pm

    Russia and Ukraine exchanged bodies of soldiers — 48 for 502

    ▪The proportions again indicate terrible losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

    ➖397 from the Donetsk direction;

    ➖24 from Luhansk;

    ➖64 from Zaporizhzhya;

    ➖17 - from morgues on the territory of the Russian Federation.

    ▪On November 8, there was also an exchange of 37 Russian fighters for 563 Ukrainian ones.

    ▪The total number of already identified bodies of soldiers and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stored in morgues in the south of Russia awaiting exchange, is more than 4,000, the media wrote.

    - RVvoenkor

    https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1862472376828547512

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    Post  Firebird Fri Nov 29, 2024 3:12 pm

    37 exchanged for 563?
    W
    T
    F

    And plenty of those 563 will go straight back to the front... and death.

    PS it says FIGHTERS NOT "BODIES".
    If the author was trying to say bodies, it's piss poor English.
    If Alamo can't see that, he needs to grow up.


    Last edited by Firebird on Sat Nov 30, 2024 12:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Nov 29, 2024 3:21 pm

    37 exchanged for 563?

    Not sure what the point would be. They were dead bodies.

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    Post  marcellogo Fri Nov 29, 2024 3:59 pm

    Hole wrote:The images you and Papa dragon posted.

    No, it's not the Hazel's fruit.

    It's the Flower.
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 12 I?id=b4ff795bfe7a42aecab2a02fad3c0de9e9a7c0b42b860533-12892682-images-thumbs&n=13

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    Post  lyle6 Fri Nov 29, 2024 4:36 pm

    >37 exchanged for 563?

    >And plenty of those 563 will go straight back to the front... and death.

    The Ukrainian MIC (mortuary-industrial complex) cannot be stopped. Even the dead are killed a second time, all to be buried again.

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Nov 29, 2024 8:17 pm


    No, it's not the Hazel's fruit.

    It's the Flower.


    Also known as Catkins.

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    Post  Hole Fri Nov 29, 2024 9:41 pm

    And plenty of those 563 will go straight back to the front... and death.
    They are already dead.

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Nov 29, 2024 11:30 pm

    This was a dangerously weak response.

    No it was perfectly adequate, it took out dozens of foreign specialists, ATACMS launchers, rare Ukrainian cruise missile launchers, Ukrainian SF, and took place over the past few days without delay after the latest ATACMS strikes. They had these targets fingered for some time and made it known that they have the capability to eliminate them at will.

    But the main thing is that it followed only a few days after the Oreshnik strike. If the Oreshnik strike proved Russia's capability, then these strikes proved Russia's intel.

    Now let the West think about what it wants to do next. They're being given time for them to rethink their latest decisions.

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    Post  ALAMO Fri Nov 29, 2024 11:32 pm

    They are already dead.

    To catch a meaning can be kind of tricky for someone who seriously dreams about a 20t warhead for a medium range missile ...
    Just saying...

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    Post  Kiko Sat Nov 30, 2024 8:59 am

    Rogov announced Zelensky's refusal to withdraw the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Kurakhovo, by Alexandra Yudina for VZGLYAD. 11.30.2024.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in Kurakhovo, Ukraine, under threat of encirclement, refusing to evacuate it, said co-chairman of the coordination council for the integration of new regions Volodymyr Rogov.

    According to him, Zelensky made the decision to hold Kurakhovo despite the threat of encirclement, refusing to give the order to withdraw Ukrainian troops, thereby dooming them to death, RIA Novosti reports .

    According to Rogov, Zelensky is sacrificing his soldiers to create an image for Western countries that continue to support Ukraine.

    Kurakhovo is a strategically important city in the DPR, located 46 kilometers from Donetsk. The city plays a key role in the southwestern part of Donbas and could become an important object in the context of the current hostilities between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

    Earlier, Rogov  reported that the Russian Armed Forces continue their offensive on Kurakhovo in the DPR, occupying the northern and southern suburbs. Russian troops in Kurakhovo are actively  breaking through  the defence of Ukrainian forces, and the regional authorities are expecting positive news, said the head of the republic, Denis Pushilin.

    https://vz.ru/news/2024/11/30/1300782.html

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    Post  Mir Sat Nov 30, 2024 9:10 am

    They are already dead.

    To catch a meaning can be kind of tricky for someone who seriously dreams about a 20t warhead for a medium range missile ...
    Just saying...

    You are all wrong and Firebird is right. They are all zombiefied and they get to re-spawn in 3....2...1 affraid

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    Post  ALAMO Sat Nov 30, 2024 11:35 am

    Necromancy Laughing Laughing Laughing

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    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 30, 2024 11:35 am

    This is a good opportunity for Russia to slaughter NAziTO troops in Ukraine and give Russia the justification to liberate and incorporate the Baltics and Finland back to Russia

    The majority of the populations in the Baltic states and Finland have supported their actions and their place in HATO and the EU... Russia does not need that extra territory... there is nothing of enormous value in those regions except any pro Russian people.... they should offer Russian passports to Russian speakers who want to keep speaking Russian and continue with Russian culture and relations... build a city somewhere and offer them apartments to live in... for the elderly offer them their pensions and a chance to live in a modern safe city where they can be as Russian as they like.

    Rescuing them all would require rebuilding those regions and would cost a lot more than just building a complete city somewhere for them.

    It could be a foreigners city for new immigrants to move to to see if they want to be Russian...

    I don't think Russia should lift a finger to save the Baltics or Finland.... they have made their choice with very little protest or objections... The baltics are just extra ports in a HATO sea that are useless unless Russia had a lot of things they needed to send to northern european countries... which they don't.

    According to the SVR, the plan would also involve Ukraine being partitioned into four large occupation zones. Romania would take the Black Sea coast, Poland would control Western Ukraine, and the UK would occupy the north, including Kiev. The central and eastern parts of the country would be taken by Germany, the agency claimed.

    Awesome plan, but if Russia does not agree then it wont work.

    Article 5 does not apply to HATO forces in foreign countries in a war zone...

    Does Russia need such a peaceful settlement option? The answer is obvious.

    This is awesome... we went from CIA run US newspapers releasing potential plans to the public to gauge the reaction of enemies and allies and the general public, to the Russians openly talking about HATO plans and making it obvious they will be rejected out of hand...

    Clever of Russia to save time like this.

    "We had several situations when units fled, small or large. They exposed their flanks, and the enemy came to these flanks and killed their brothers in arms, because those who stood in positions did not know that there was no one around," the Ukrainian official said.

    Perhaps that Ukrainian official should go to the front and lead by example and show them how it is done.

    If the above info is correct, Oreshnik's 6 x 6 sub arnaments is not far off the force of one FOAB.

    There is little chance it will have 36 penetrators weighing 500kgs each... that would be 16 tons of payload.

    More likely it would be closer to 3.6 tons so probably 3.3 tons of explosives equivalent... but spread over 36 locations around the target area... which is probably more efficient against most targets than a bigger payload hitting one place like a FOAB.

    One argument is that Oreshnik is a more efficient force than other explosives because it is kinetic energy into the target rather than lots of heat and light and air explosion over the target.

    The reason explosives are used is to create heat and shockwaves around the target... the higher the HE content the more powerful the shockwaves and heat, but in this case the kinetic effects of this very high speed projectile produces shockwaves and heat as a natural consequence of its impact so HE is not required or even useful.

    HE is lightweight... a 500kg HE bomb is much bigger than a 500kg lump of metal penetrator because of the volume difference, but the compact nature of metal means it forms a better penetrator too to reach places something lighter and bigger and filled with HE simply would not reach.

    A solid metal projectile is also less likely to break up so it continues to penetrate better all the way through.

    For hunting a rifle bullet is often lead cored to add mass and momentum but with an open nose jacket so when it impacts game it expands and creates a larger hole. Full metal jacket ammo does not have an exposed lead core and will simply punch through people and animals and do rather less damage which makes it less humane for use on animals.

    Selecting different types of warhead is dictated by a target... for soft area targets HE makes more sense but super high velocities makes destroying such targets more difficult and a solution would be multiple penetrator warheads to spread the very focused damage of each penetrator.... so instead of having a single two ton penetrator, you would use 36 x 50kg or 100kg penetrators to spread the damage and reach deep down into protected targets.

    Shooting an elephant with an AK-47 bullet would be a waste of time because such a light slow bullet would barely penetrate the skin and would just annoy and enrage the animal. Elephant guns have heavy bullets that generally don't travel a lot faster than assault rifle bullets and rely on heavy solid bullets to penetrate skin and flesh to reach vital organs and cause blood loss. When you watch good movies like Tremors where they obviously know a bit about guns they use 50 cal rounds and elephant guns on the monsters to penetrate their thick hides. While Jurassic park goes the other way and shows shotguns being used... with most dinosaurs would be useless and would not penetrate the skin let alone reach vital organs and break bones. For most of the dinosaurs in those movies you would need 30mm cannon or heavier rounds to effect large dinosaurs. The point is that some targets if you don't have penetration then it doesn't matter how much energy the round has or HE payload the round has... an explosive detonated outside an armoured vehicle might give the crew of the vehicle a headache, but a HE charge 1/10th the size inside the vehicle could kill everyone because the protection that stops the round from entering... armour on the tank or 7 floors above the 8th floor you are hiding in, contains the explosion so the shockwaves bounce of the wall and are magnified inside the volume... not to mention the fire and combustion will consume the oxygen too... and 7 floors is a long way to climb holding your breath.

    With this weapon you would get zero warning... one second the lights are on and everything is normal and then it is dark, there are fragments and burning things bouncing around the place at high supersonic speeds, and you are probably dead like everyone around you.

    A monstrous, 210+ t R-36M in its heaviest and latest modification has a maximal payload of 8470 kilos, which includes decoys, a delivery bus, and all assisting subsystems.

    Very true, but advancements in rocket fuel and the fact that you don't need to reach intercontinental ranges means you could use a current ICBM or SLBM and double or triple its payload to achieve the shorter range parameters to make it an IRBM and no longer subject to strategic arms agreements.

    Depressed trajectory designs that don't leave the atmosphere could allow one stage to have its rockets replaced with scramjets and a massive reduction in fuel weight because you don't need any oxidiser onboard.

    The TNT equivalent calculators are misleading. You need to account for the actual physics of hypersonic impactors hitting hard objects.

    Energy equivalents are misleading... the equation is biased to velocity, which does not take into account how the projectile or payload interacts with the target.

    As I mentioned above a FMJ (full metal jacket) bullet might punch straight through a target and continue down range without slowing down very much at all... the energy transfer to the target might be not that significant. In comparison a light high velocity bullet of a modern small calibre assault rifle is designed to tumble and fragment and dump its energy into the target, but also as I mentioned on a larger animal it might not even break through the skin... while on soft skinned humans they can do horrendous damage... even without deforming.

    The fact is that the new president faces a non-trivial task - to lead the US out of the lost Ukrainian conflict, saving face as much as possible. To pass off defeat as a victory. To contrive, to twist, to lie - but not to give a reason to say: "Wow, so this is a second Afghanistan!" Or even worse - "a second Vietnam!"

    It was supposed to be a second Afghanistan for Russia, but is turning into a second Afghanistan for the west.

    Of course that would be 8th or 9th Afghanistan for Britain...

    I bet Russia is now waiting that the foreign terrorists from Nato nations are forced to go back to their underground facilities in Ukraine, before another Oreshnik hits them. More bang for the buck!

    And that is the problem I have with so many fan boys demanding they launch the missile now.... picking the target is important, but timing the attack so that you get certain group personnel is even more important. It is not enough to hit a rocket production facility, but getting it when all their specialists from Ukraine and HATO are present makes the strike rather more effective.

    Many speculations, many ideas. In such a case, you don't even need decoys.

    These missiles are intended to be used as one shots so having it manouver at stages where it might be vulnerable is more useful than having 20-30 decoys on board...

    It would be like fitting an internal jammer on an Su-57... a towed jammer might be useful but internal jammers are counterproductive to your stealth design.

    The Rubezh weighs 36,000 kg acc to one source. Yet other sources (Jamestown haha) say it is 80 tons. Obviously it's not that, but it is at least some way related to Oreshnik.

    At this stage all anyone knows who can say is what Putin has said so that is just speculation and not to be trusted.

    There is zero chance each penetrator is 500kgs when it clearly carries 36 if them.... that is just obvious.

    But in reality a 500kg penetrator would require too much energy to manouver to avoid interception anyway...

    Numerous sources suggest 6 x 6 subarnaments.
    Numerous sources suggest heavy metal rods/balls were carried to increase the kinetic performance. Rather than actual explosives.
    So it could all be very different to past payloads.

    The 6 payloads of 6 penetrators is based on the video released showing 6 clusters of 6 lines coming from the sky glowing from the speed they were travelling at, so that is not really speculation and can be considered fact.

    Rods would allow them to maintain speed and penetrate into the targets... balls would slow down faster but could be scattered to spread the damage on targets that don't have 8 sublevels... perhaps an airfield or factory over an area would be better struck with metal balls.

    In this case I would say rods are more likely.

    Again... speculation.

    What is not speculation is that ICBMs and SLBMs generally have a throw weight of a couple of tons... the very big missiles were often very big to achieve intercontinental range, so an IRBM would have a heavier payload.... isn't there a Chinese or North Korean IRBM with a conventional payload weight of 8 tons.

    So it is not impossible, but 18 tons would be very very very unlikely and would run the risk of being categorised as a longer ranged ICBM with might lighter nuclear warheads.

    Nuclear warheads tend to be smaller and lighter so a Kh-101 with a 400kg HE payload has a range of 4,500km, while the Kh-102 with a rather lighter nuclear warhead reaches 5,000km range or more. The difference would be greater if the Kh-101 carried metal penetrator warheads that are mostly steel... the space a 400kg payload of HE takes up you could probably have a 2 ton penetrator... but the cruise missile couldn't handle that...

    Numerous sources highlight Oreshnik's far superior ability in number of arnaments carried vs other missiles.

    Its best features are its range and speed.... and heavier payloads will reduce both.

    Carrying 18 tons to the destination, even 700km sounds a lot.

    The whole point of this missile is that it can reach targets in Europe and Asia and the Middle East that their short range missiles can't reach and they don't have to use ICBMs and SLBMs to hit.

    The range will be in the 4 to 5 thousand kms range... they mentioned hitting London in about 19 minutes... mach 10 is 3.5-4 km per second so lets say 3.5km/s to allow for acceleration and say that over a 19 minute flight you travel for 1440 seconds, and moving at 3.5km/s you cover just under 4,000km.

    Putin compares it to a nuke in ability to damage.
    The certainly appears to be evidence supporting it.

    That is because of its terminal velocity. He wouldn't compare it with a nuke if it was a nuke.

    Why would Putin say it is comparable to a nuke if it is not?

    Because it is very destructive even without a HE payload because of the speeds and temperatures involved.

    Note Alamo and others are not saying it is not powerful... they are saying it is not 18 tons of payload.

    The submunitions are not 500kg each and don't need to be to cause serious damage... the speed and temperatures achieved means much smaller lighter munitions would be effective enough and the use of 36 munitions to spread that damage makes them more lethal.

    If you think about it... if each penetrator is 100kg that means each submunition payload is 600kg and the 6 together are 3.6 tons which is a significant amount for an ICBM or SLBM... but with modern rocket fuel would be perfectly achievable without needing hundreds of tons worth of launch rocket.

    And plenty of those 563 will go straight back to the front... and death.

    Dead bodies traded...

    The Ukrainian MIC (mortuary-industrial complex) cannot be stopped. Even the dead are killed a second time, all to be buried again.

    Just the leadership that are brain dead...

    To catch a meaning can be kind of tricky for someone who seriously dreams about a 20t warhead for a medium range missile ...
    Just saying...

    Don't be mean... misunderstandings are common on the interweb... sarcasm is not the solution.


    According to him, Zelensky made the decision to hold Kurakhovo despite the threat of encirclement, refusing to give the order to withdraw Ukrainian troops, thereby dooming them to death, RIA Novosti reports .

    Didn't hitler do the same thing at Stalingrad... hope their commanders are smart enough to surrender... their survival chances in prison in Russia would be much better than for the Germans in WWII.

    You are all wrong and Firebird is right. They are all zombiefied and they get to re-spawn in 3....2...1

    I will consider these jibes as light hearted banter rather than bullying, because as I have posted bullying and abuse comes with a three week ban... but I don't take your an Alamos comments as being abuse.

    How about we stop this line of humour now...

    Firebird was obviously mistaken and simple correction from other members would suffice.

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    Post  Firebird Sat Nov 30, 2024 12:08 pm

    Alamo can prattle on all day.
    But he's never actually written any comments/sent any links to assess the Oreshnik, but delights in bad mouthing others.
    I never actually made a claim about the Oreshnik's mass. I simply put up some calculations using figures that had been put online.

    Alamo, nor anyone else is able to say the gross weight of the Oreshnik, or even the number of stages of it.
    If the original missile was 2 stages for a range of thousands of miles, the Oreshnik only travelled 700km and may carry a dramatically different load to a missile that needs masses of fuel for a genuine intermediate range journey.

    The links re long range US missiles are of relevance Each nuclear carrying cone there weighed 200 to 270kg (of which 6 or more could be carried on one MIRV bus).Oreshnik on a mere 700km journey would have substantial volume available for a load. But all Alamo wants to do is throw silly bitching comments rather than actually contributing to the debate.


    Re the "fighters" and "bodies" issue above, again he conveniently misses that basic point. And really needs to grow up.

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    Post  ALAMO Sat Nov 30, 2024 12:18 pm

    Very true, but advancements in rocket fuel and the fact that you don't need to reach intercontinental ranges means you could use a current ICBM or SLBM and double or triple its payload to achieve the shorter range parameters to make it an IRBM and no longer subject to strategic arms agreements.
    Depressed trajectory designs that don't leave the atmosphere could allow one stage to have its rockets replaced with scramjets and a massive reduction in fuel weight because you don't need any oxidiser onboard.


    Even if we do consider technological progress and breakthrough projects, we still need to keep common sense and perspective.
    If the newest Russian missiles have a payload in a range of 1.2t (R-30, Topol, Yars) up to 8.5t (Sarmat), we need to stick to known and existing limits.
    As long as we don't know the type of warhead that Oreshnik carries, we can speculate using common sense.
    It clearly is not a 210t heavy monster.
    We do not even know if it is an RS-26 derivative or not.

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    Post  Arrow Sat Nov 30, 2024 12:27 pm

    the newest Russian missiles have a payload in a range of 1.2t (R-30, Topol, Yars) up to 8.5t (Sarmat), we need to stick to known and existing limits. wrote:

    In the case of Topola-M, Yars, Bulava their throw mass is not that big. This is also related to the fact that part of the energy goes to a shortened boost phase and a flat trajectory, which requires more energy as well as reinforcement of the projectile structure itself, which also translates into weight, etc. Despite progress in fuels and their energies, these factors cause energy losses on the throw mass.

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    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 30, 2024 1:08 pm

    If the original missile was 2 stages for a range of thousands of miles, the Oreshnik only travelled 700km and may carry a dramatically different load to a missile that needs masses of fuel for a genuine intermediate range journey.

    With the level of accuracy achieved I would say that it is possible that this new weapon is designed to have different payloads for different ranges, so for short range attacks you can carry a max payload, while for medium and intermediate range attacks perhaps a reduced payload... maybe 4 and 2 clusters of warheads rather than six for shorter ranged use, but they will have to be careful to ensure the missile cannot be claimed to be an ICBM by the US so they can limit deployment and production numbers by saying it falls within the START parameters on strategic missiles.

    Honestly I don't think a weapon like this needs that much flexibility and that having very big 500kg penetrators would be counter productive and for most targets just end up buried very deeply in soil and rock below the target.

    They will have a good idea of the types of Soviet and HATO structures they will want to be taking down and for most targets like Cheyanne mountain facility in the US I would say it would just make sense to use a 20 megaton or heavier warhead that buries itself in the ground before exploding to take it out.

    Even if we do consider technological progress and breakthrough projects, we still need to keep common sense and perspective.

    We also need to appreciate that these missiles are not SLBMs or ICBMs and are more like ISKANDER and other SRMs in the sense that they will be used and used in situations below the level of WWII nuclear confrontations so the design is not going to be similar to ICBM or SLBM warheads because the requirements for HE and APFSDS are quite different.

    A 125mm gun is OK for HE but excellent for APFSDS.... a 203mm gun would be APFSDS and HE overkill for the moment and lead to rounds rather much bigger and heavier and longer than could be comfortably put in your average ground vehicle.

    The kinetic warheads for an IRBM would probably not be amazing for an ISKANDER, but the increased payload capacity and speed advantage from an IRBM, not to mention the range increase makes them valuable and worth making something unique for.

    Ironically, something made to be carried by an IRBM could also be fitted to a SLBM or ICBM if reqiuired where their longer range should allow a rather faster impact speed... they will be coming down through the same atmosphere but at much higher speeds from the greater range.

    The penetrators will be designed to minimse drag and speed loss so should hit the target at significantly higher speeds.

    If the newest Russian missiles have a payload in a range of 1.2t (R-30, Topol, Yars) up to 8.5t (Sarmat), we need to stick to known and existing limits.

    Why?

    Those weapons were designed to carry a specific payload of nuclear warheads which take up more internal volume but are rather lighter in weight.

    With a penetrator weight of 150kg and 6 payloads of 6 munitions each gives us 150 x 6 x 6, which is 9 x 6 is 5.4 tons, which is not impossible... as mentioned Chinese or North Korean IRBMs include weapons with an 8 ton payload... which pretty much clearly points to kinetic warheads being standard...

    Ironically a Hazelnut missile might be designed with a mixed warhead... 5 with hard penetrators (total of 30 projectiles) and one bus replaced with a small nuke warhead with a huge multi parachute system so the 6 payloads are released and the five kinetic payloads streak down to the bunker targets while the sixth slows down rapidly and detonates at 1km altitude with a 250Kt warhead to flatten the city above the bunkers.

    As long as we don't know the type of warhead that Oreshnik carries, we can speculate using common sense.

    Except common sense does not exclude being clever considering the threats that Russia faces.

    It clearly is not a 210t heavy monster.
    We do not even know if it is an RS-26 derivative or not.

    We don't know anything about its size of composition... for all we know it might be completely new and nothing like anything we have seen or heard about before.

    It might have an existing missiles first stage rocket, but the second stage might be scramjet based that never leaves the atmosphere.

    The US was very quick to say it was not an ICBM and what would make it obviously not an ICBM is not having a 10,000km length flight trajectory high up into space and back down on a shorter range target.... the opposite of a depressed trajectory launch.

    A depressed trajectory launch where the missile scoops up air to burn fuel instead of carrying it all inside the rocket would allow mach 10 speeds, but make the actually missile much much smaller than an all rocket powered weapon.

    If this really is a 5,000km range missile it would not be hard to work out its terminal speed for that flight range... and I am guessing it is higher than 3km/s.

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    Post  Belisarius Sat Nov 30, 2024 3:50 pm

    Our source reports that Russian long-range missile strikes on Ukraine in 2025 will increase by 2 times more than in 2024 - this is due to the fact that Russia has increased the production of its missiles several times.
    At the same time, the DPRK also supplies Russia with long-range and medium-range missiles and missile systems.

    https://t.me/legitimniy/19112

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 30, 2024 5:15 pm

    A Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) serviceman with the call sign "Muchnoy" reports on the advancement of Russian forces south of Pokrovsk along the railway, which "creates the threat of encirclement from the west."

    "South of the settlement of Pushkino, the enemy has begun moving toward Ukrainka. They have about one kilometer left to reach the eastern outskirts. Movement toward the Pokrovsk-Kurakhovo highway also continues, with three kilometers remaining.

    In the direction of Zholtoye, the enemy has also advanced westward, reaching the outskirts of Novopustynka. Thus, the breakthrough along the railway toward Pokrovsk is expanding, and the threat of encirclement from the west is being created," the AFU serviceman expressed concern.

    @ukraine_watch

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63 - Page 12 GdpNsN2XkAAeIVG?format=jpg&name=small

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 30, 2024 5:18 pm

    Hope its true.

    A train carrying ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles was hit near the port of Chornomorsk in Ukraine

    NATO missiles arrived from Romania, the pro-Russian underground reported

    -Ostashko

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 30, 2024 5:26 pm

    Remarkable. Sadly a bit like Syria and the bad guys atm.

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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Nov 30, 2024 6:49 pm

    GarryB wrote:...In this case the facility is a cold war era strategic rocket production facility with floors going about 8 floors down.... even the biggest explosion and fire in the bottom floor would not be visible from the surface, but all they oxygen would be consumed and most of the people working there likely killed by the impacts...

    I can only imagine look on some Ukr who thought he was safe underground when walls disintegrated and air caught fire lol1





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