Russian special military operation in Ukraine #63

Some say these direct attacks by NATO missiles inside Russia , fired by NATO killing servicemen are mere PR or propaganda and are too few to be militarily significant . In the short term yes . But if these carry on , for any length of time , even without much material damage , they do have significant psychological / political effect . Unanswered they could affect the outcome of the war , by demoralizing the troops and people . No need to start WWIII yet , but counter- pressure need be applied , in a non- lethal way , that demoralize their Army and people and government for supporting the war . Use your imagination .

I have heard analysts saying that the Oreshnik missiles have such a high kinetic energy that their impact is equivalent to a nuclear bomb. But the video showing an Oreshnik missile did not show any nuclear-like explosion or something.
Could anyone enlighten me. I have no clue about this.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 36,882 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19520 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,492 multiple rocket launchers, 18,647 field artillery and mortars, 28,783 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12539266@egNews

NOTE: Russian MoD reported losses of Ukrainian artillery and rocket systems now exceed 20,000 units while those of tank and armoured combat systems are almost there also.

Hoooolly shieeeet

https://t.me/c/1638135777/39812

A real steam-powered locomotive

Welcome to the XIX century!

Still, there is a space for improvement - middle ages should be a benchmark.

And by the way, some vids emerged showing Russkie taking out a relatively small, 1MW hydro power plant on this location :
48°02'05.4"N 24°55'32.5"E

If they are now down to throwing ch-101 at such irrelevant targets, that would mean a serious lack of better ones left

SolidarityWithRussia wrote:I have heard analysts saying that the Oreshnik missiles have such a high kinetic energy that their impact is equivalent to a nuclear bomb. But the video showing an Oreshnik missile did not show any nuclear-like explosion or something.
Could anyone enlighten me. I have no clue about this

Nuclear explosion disperses energy into the air while kinetic impactor disperses it into the ground

Same amount of energy but different location

In both cases surface of the earth gets pulverized

In one of the vids, we can clearly see the earth/whatever is being blown into the air at each impact.
It is nothing on a biblical scale, looks more like if you take a shot aiming soil - pufff and that's it.
But if you dig into this crater after, you would see a shock wave reshaping the earth's structure. Mixing it, relocating layers etc. In addition, you have a thermal effect that can even melt some part of it.
Putin said thet it generates a 4000 deg C temperature on impact, which is a rather impressive effect.

The West will not be deterred from trying to harm Russia anytime anyhow until it is regime changed, means, the plutocracy that has been ruling it for the last 300 years is put to hang on a tree. For this they need to be thoroughly defeated and that will mean a lot of suffering for the population, but there is no other way. At the same time, the West IS indeed deterred from attacking directly Russia, which implies the scale and effects of what they manage to do is so small that it does not hurt the country other than as a PsyOp. But as they go from one red line into the next one trying to provoke Russia, they can indeed miscalculate and require tough and even maybe direct retaliation. For the time being I assume Russia will just increase the damage to 404, with preference for NATO staff there, perform sabotage and eventually arm allies with more and more advanced weapons, increasing the price the West will pay. This will be first abroad, where they are highly vulnerable and fair game themselves as proven war criminals, and ultimately on their own territory. It all depends on what the emerging nations consider a commensurate response and what kind of agreements Russia gets from them to preserve their support, coupled with how far the rot in the West progresses. Given the required conditions, Russia may feel tempted to give a bloody nose to some of the chihuahuas out there and cool down the rest of the pack for good.

No because you can assume that they will escalate further once they see that the only consequence is a destroyed Ukraine. They pay no cost, not immediately.

And as they escalate Russian public opinion and the hardline section of the elite will put ever increasing pressure for counter-escalation and direct retaliation.

That said at this particular moment, Putin is acting correctly in confining the 'response' to more demonstrations of the Oreshnik in action.
Because it has completely burst NATO's calculus. And they are still going through the stages of grief. Give them time to process it. Next up you'll see some bargaining - not with Russia, but between themselves, with God, whoever.
I was watching the UK Defence Secretary's report in parliament, together with the contributions of a few others. Well the words were boisterous. But their body language and tone of voice reflected none of that confidence. And they were already climbing down, talking about fighting Russia on the ground if it invades 'Eastern Europe'. Well Russia and Ukraine are both Eastern Europe, but here I presume they mean if Russia invades Poland. So yeah not quite sending British troops to the Ukraine anymore.

@IYIe6

The type of action , is very important . It could enrage , as you said . But it could also mobilise against war . Sure if there was casualties , then it enrages , difficult to get out of that one , like the situation Russia faces , and why NATO carried out a lethal strike .

Do you remember the big demonstrations in London , against the war in Iraq ? A million strong ? Why do you think it happened ? It sure was not any sympathy the Londoners felt towards the potential thousands , their forces would kill in Iraq . It was fear . It was fear of Saddam's alleged WMD , his alleged long range missiles able to reach London in minutes ! At least according to the dodgy dossier .

And the reason there were no mass demonstrations before the Libya action or Syria action or potential Iran action ? Because there was no fear any more . They felt safe . The war would be fought over there . Their children would be safe . Who gives a sh*t about other people's children .

So the type of action that I describe has to be calculated so as not to be able to be ignored by the MSM or politicians . It has to provide anxiety but no great fear that will enrage , as you said . It should mobilise politically against war .

Many demonstrative actions are possible , something visible by ordinary citizens or tangible but annoying and moderately anxiety provoking . Something that says : We can reach you , harm you , but have decided not to do ! Eg : Illumination flares or lights that shine at night , orbit over Europe by satellites . Leaflets distributed , calling for peace by drone .....

So Russia is able to destroy underground bunkers with the energy of a nuclear weapon without suffering the diplomatic consequences of a nuke. That is incredible.

Welds if to spec should be stronger than the steel they join.



Here you can see that the welds around both ammunition racks failed catastrophically. Though still nowhere near as badly as the challenger 2s have been failing.

Ch2 is an extremely heavy tank, with a giant part of its mass located on a turret.
If you watch closely some wreckages, you will spot that it is not that the ammo inside has not detonated. It has, but the effect was not big enough to throw the turret 20m up.
It is blown off, and clearly out of the turret ring.
Now, if you explode something inside - the energy will be distributed along the weakest points. In the case of tanks with relatively thin top armor plates, the welding there is not much impressive either.

The other explanation can be that it has been deliberately blown up with help of extra charges.
We just don't know.

I have seen Soviet tanks in just the same condition. There is nothing to turn onto.

Methinks that SK doesn't want its weapons to be affected by the same PR destruction as others in Ukraine. Bad for sales into countries like Poland.


South Korea has refused to sell weapons to Ukraine.

Seoul has rejected Kiev's request to purchase the Chongun air defense system, 155mm shells and radar stations.

The Defense Ministry has ordered LIG Nex1, Hanwha and Hyundai Rotem to refrain from dealing with Ukraine, citing a law banning arms exports to war zones, the sources said.

 It is important to understand that Ukraine wanted to buy weapons, not get them for free. But we were still refused,
- Minister of Defense Umerov.

SK used to have a deep MIC connection with Russia.
They operate "localized" clones of Oniks, Iskander and the KM-SAM AD system is principally S-350 constructed with active involvement of Almaz-Antey.
That might be the ground of restraining any contacts with 404.

Urgent!:

Putin: "If Ukraine gets nuclear weapons, we will use all means of attack", 11.28.2024.

https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/531948-putin-ucrania-conseguir-armas-nucleares.

Trump's Personnel Decisions Lay Bare His Ukraine Strategy, by Dmitry Bavyrin for VZGLYAD. 11.28.2024.

US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that Keith Kellogg will take the post of his special representative for the conflict in Ukraine. Kellogg himself has declared his intention to seek "peace through force." This is a case where the personality of the appointee says a lot about his future actions: "Trump's plan for Ukraine" has become clear in general terms.

To become the US President's special representative for Ukraine, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg had to beat out three other candidates – three shady characters with an unhealthy amount of influence on Donald Trump.

The first was legal adviser Boris Epstein, a particularly trusted and key person in the defense of Trump against prosecutors . He himself wanted to become a special representative, without having the appropriate experience in government service. But Epstein has relatives in Ukraine, and he himself was born in Moscow , and this in his eyes was enough to “settle the matter among his own.”

But then such a prominent member of Trump's team as Elon Musk got angry at Epstein, and other colleagues accused him of trying to wheedle "kickbacks" for protection when appointing him to one or another post in Washington: if you want to be in power under Trump, they say, pay Epstein. In the end, Trump protected his executor from attacks, but did not make him a special representative.

The alternative candidate was legal scholar and diplomat Brian Hook. More precisely, the Washington hawks and traditional Republican elites wanted Hook to be considered because he was their man. But Trump did not let himself be fooled this time, although he had been fooled before: Hook served as a top adviser to both secretaries of state in Trump’s first term.

The third candidate was considered to be Richard Grenell, and many "Trumpologists" emphasized that the post of special representative was in his pocket. Grenell was known as the boss's favorite and one of the key players in his foreign policy team. He was even tipped for the post of head of the State Department, but for some reason he did not become either the Secretary of State, the Permanent Representative to the UN, or even the special representative.

And it's good that he didn't, because Grenell is a cowboy, a soldier and a hysteric. He likes to blackmail, threaten, be rude, kick open doors (this is not certain), teach other countries to respect America, and he also likes men, so he probably has a personal dislike for countries with traditional values.

In short, Keith Kellogg is the nicest guy in the bunch.


But Vladimir Zelensky’s team will not agree with this statement: for them, Kellogg is the worst option.

It's not that there are any details about Kellogg's biography that suggest this, although he has a long one: the retired lieutenant general is 80 years old. He was born during World War II, fought in Vietnam, invaded Panama, defended Kuwait from Saddam Hussein, and ran the "underground Pentagon" — a special nuclear bunker for military commanders — during the 9/11 attacks. In short, he's seen a lot.

The point is that now, after Trump announced Kellogg's appointment , we know in general terms what the "Trump plan for Ukraine" is that he has long been bragging about - and which no one has seen.

"The Trump Plan" is Kellogg's plan: Kellogg wrote a strategy for ending the war for Trump on special order. Last summer, the boss approved this strategy. It turns out that Kellogg's current appointment is an example of the classic management strategy of "you came up with it - you implement it."

The full text of Kellogg's plan has never been published. But its provisions can be judged by the responses from the "admissions committee" and the statements made by Kellogg himself, his co-author Fred Fleits, and American media sources in their circle.

It is known that the strategy takes into account what Moscow considers the basis of the entire conflict – drawing Kyiv into NATO. Kellogg advocates the introduction of a moratorium on the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Ukrainian territory, although only “temporary”.

The military part of the ongoing confrontation is supposed to be frozen along the line of actual control over the territories, in other words, along the front line. Trump himself has been demonstrating his determination to do so or something like that since the beginning of autumn, and he allegedly wants to stop the shooting even before the start of negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv.

The organizational problem here is that Kyiv refuses to negotiate, as well as refuses to concede anything to Moscow. Moscow sees no point in talking to Kiev until it is ready to make concessions and accept the new reality.

In order for negotiations to begin, Kellogg proposes to launch a kind of “blackmail swing” – alternately putting pressure on Kyiv and Moscow.

In the case of Ukraine, further assistance from the United States will be made contingent on Kyiv's participation in dialogue with Moscow.

Moscow will be threatened with measures to strengthen Ukraine (whatever that means) and stop Russia's energy exports. Trump could not help but like such a proposal, since the fight against Russian energy exports became his signature policy during his first presidential term (and he is still proud of it).

In general terms, this is the main thing that is known about the "Kellogg plan." It is also known that the lieutenant general is a categorical opponent of the dismantling of the Pentagon's arsenals to the detriment of the US's own defense capability. This is the main thing that worries him, but it is not he who will decide on the nature and volume of military supplies to Kyiv or anywhere else.

Kellogg, if we are to believe his own words, is also concerned about the preservation of Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a nation: he literally regrets that their demographic potential is burning in the military furnace.

The general visited Ukraine at least in 2023 as part of a large delegation of American military personnel, but his desire to “save” Ukraine is unlikely to be very sentimental. The United States needs Ukraine as an ally next to the enemy, which is what Russia is for Kellogg. First and foremost, he is a Cold War veteran (with us), and everything else comes second.

At the same time, Kellogg is a representative of that generation of the American military elite for whom a direct war between the United States and Russia is the worst-case scenario, and they are used to fearing such a scenario. Kellogg is not prone to the self-importance that is typical of American generals 20 years younger. That is why he is for dialogue and even for cooperation, which presupposes mutual respect between the superpowers and a rejection of provocative tactics.

Only practice will show whether the 80-year-old general will be able to restore at least some dialogue between Washington and Moscow on Ukraine or any other issue. In the current times, it seems that to do this, one must be a kind of "great Goodwin", which neither Kellogg nor Trump himself resembles.

But there seemed to be no one in the Biden administration as sensible as Kellogg. And the person closest to Kellogg was Biden himself, another veteran of the first Cold War who had failed.

https://vz.ru/politics/2024/11/28/1300414.html

"Everything is possible today": Putin recalled an old Soviet joke and literally checked the wind direction (0:34), answering a journalist's question about possible strikes on Kiev with an Oreshnik missile.


https://t.me/geopolitics_live/38160

Hang in there, dude, you are doing lord's work

‘Like dealing with cornered rats’: The men who force Ukrainians to the front lines

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/28/ukrainian-mobilisation-officer-explained-kyiv-war-russia/

Every morning, Artem signs on for work as one of Ukraine’s feared recruitment officers in his home town somewhere in the country’s war-torn East.
After a short briefing, his team decides where they will go: some are sent to cafés, restaurants, even nightclubs – anywhere where young men of fighting age might be found.
Then, the difficult work begins.
“Sometimes it’s like dealing with a cornered rat,” Artem told The Telegraph, as he explained how he gets his targets into vans and off to desperate military recruitment centres.
“They continue fighting even while in the vehicle. Those who resist always threaten to take revenge on our guys or their families,” he added.
Ukraine’s military is suffering a chronic manpower crisis as the Russian army advances at its fastest pace since the war began.
Washington is now pressing Kyiv to lower the mobilisation age from 25 to 18 to replace its battlefield losses and help withstand Russia’s offensive.
The country’s very survival depends on how many extra bodies Artem’s team can get to the trenches – and how fast.

Artem, who asked not to use his real name, works for the Territorial Centre of Recruitment and Social Support (TCC) – something he would not tell his family or friends.
The work of the TCC has been thrust into the spotlight by viral videos of men in camouflage stopping others on the streets and dragging them off to join the army.
Emergency recruitment has now turned into a game of cat and mouse, with sightings of TCC officers posted in online chat groups to warn refuseniks.
Young men in the chat groups secretly talk of limiting the number of times they leave their homes, and of avoiding subways and busy city centres where they might be captured.
TCC officers such as Artem are painted as brutal and ruthless kidnappers willing to go to extreme measures to reach their monthly quota of new military recruits.
Artem, a 28-year-old husband and father of one, agreed to speak to The Telegraph anonymously and under the condition his home town would not be revealed, for fear of reprisals.
TCC officers have responsibility for military conscription in Ukraine and must ensure all men in Ukraine of fighting age, currently 18 to 60, are registered for military service.
Many men in Ukraine are already registered in the country’s military database.
But others have been evading the requirement for nearly three years, hoping not to be enlisted, lest they come home from the front lines maimed or in a body bag, like so many of their compatriots.
Artem said that each morning, the TCC officers meet for their daily briefing before dispersing to various areas of his city to begin their work.

Some officers go to military checkpoints at key entries and exits from the city, while others patrol the streets and stop any men they encounter.
“Some teams move around the city by vehicle in constant search mode,” he said. “We have areas where our groups work almost constantly – mostly transportation hubs, but sometimes we leave these spots so people don’t become accustomed to avoiding them.”

The officers frequently work at market entrances, parks, beaches, cafes, and areas near factories or other businesses where men work, Artem said.
He confirmed he had targets to meet, and said: “Due to understaffing, we barely choose whom to stop – now nearly everyone is subject to inspection.”
When he first began working for TCC, Artem said, he did not stop men who appeared to be “visibly weak individuals” – but now he does.

“Almost always, adrenaline speaks for itself. Even those whose documents are in order still show fear,” he said.
Those with documents ordinarily have severe injuries that bar them from serving, are students or volunteers, or are working with international journalists.

However, at times, documents have been forged, and some men pay thousands of dollars to receive them. Artem’s team is responsible for verifying them.
After the men are rounded up into vans, Artem said, they are then forced to take a military medical examination. Those who pass are forced to a training centre to prepare to be sent to the front lines.

“Previously, we allowed people to go home and pack, but lately, they don’t return voluntarily. They hide and don’t show up. Sometimes, we have to confiscate their phones depending on the situation,” he said.
Some men have no way of telling their family and friends where they are. The Telegraph has received unverified Instagram stories from sources that show people frantically looking for anyone who might have been in contact with their loved ones recently, and adding that they are afraid that the TCC has abducted them.

One woman in Kyiv posted that she was searching for her ex-boyfriend, who had been missing for a few days. A few hours later, she posted a second story that she had found him – he had been forced to the front lines already.

On Telegram, a channel called “Weather Kyiv” where residents post recent sightings of TCC officers, has over 104,000 subscribers; these include images and videos of men dressed in camouflage, stopping men on the streets and writing them documents.

The subscribers claim the men are TCC officers and, several times a day, the channel posts where in Kyiv men should avoid. Red exclamation marks show where officers might be while sun emojis show alleged safe areas.

One man, who subscribes to Weather Kyiv and asked to be referred to as “Basiley”, told The Telegraph: “Men who have an age that is appropriate for military drafting are scared to walk freely in the street. If you go in the Kyiv subway, you will see youths under 25, people in military uniform, or elderly people, but not guys from 25 to 40, because we are scared.”
Basiley is 35 and said he avoids any unnecessary trips to Kyiv’s city centre. When Basiley leaves his home, he said he feels anxious, afraid of any large car moving slowly along next to him.

Speaking of TCC using force to send men to the military, Basiley said: “It’s a serious problem because people understand that this is a one-way road. We don’t have any specific limits of time that people have to serve in the military, and when you’re taken, it’s forever. In many cases, this bitter end happens very fast.

“You’re basically afraid to walk from your home,” he added.
Artem has been working as a TCC officer for more than one and a half years, and said he took the job because he enjoys “being part of the system”.

He said when he first started working with the TCC he felt pity and compassion for his targets.

“I’ve learned to control my emotions during work, and now it’s just a job for me. I always have the argument: It’s either them or me,” he said.

He added: “I believe it’s better to work for TCC than to hide from it.”

He believes that if he works for the TCC he will not be sent to the war zone.

The vast majority of TCC officers are like the kapo in nazi concentration camps...  At the end of the war they should be packed and sent to some labour camp in Africa...unless the civilians and the people who survived in the war do not get to them first...
I believe that unless Russia stops them, civilians and former Ukrainians returning from the war would try to lynch and hang most of politicians and tcc officers on some lampposts..

Possibly at the end of the war Russia could give a few days to the ex Ukrainian forced soldiers to have their revenge on their former jailers.

Vitali Klitschko is another one that will probably do the same end of Nicolae Ceaușescu if he does not leave 404 very soon.

S p r i n t e r



@SprinterFamily


The Netherlands has delivered three new American Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine

Could anyone enlighten me. I have no clue about this.

Those things are like big APFSDS rounds used by tanks against other tanks.
Very fast and very hot at impact.

now exceed 20,000 units while those of tank and armoured combat systems are almost there also.

Propably a lot of mortars and armored trucks included in those numbers.
Nevertheless it´s some painful attrition for the collective west.

If they are now down to throwing ch-101 at such irrelevant targets, that would mean a serious lack of better ones left

The depots are full with cruise missiles. They need the space for new ones.

But if you dig into this crater after, you would see a shock wave reshaping the earth's structure

Like the channel a lightning strike leaves in the ground.

So Russia is able to destroy underground bunkers

Or big structures above ground.
Or large area targets.
Depends on the warheads.

three new American Patriot missile defense systems

"New"

"A pretty hectic few weeks for the U.S. Empire.

Must be exhausting trying to start a nuclear war, organizing terrorists in Syria, staging a coup in Georgia, pretending to broker a „ceasefire” in Lebanon, slaughtering more people in Gaza, threatening anyone who dares consider arresting Netanyahu, and shamelessly lobbying to use Ukrainian teenagers as cannon fodder…"

∆

Looks like Kellogg is hiding a surprise in a sealed package ? Playing poker ? Well , Russians play chess . Americans won't play chess . So the Russians must play poker . The TCC are doing their job wrong . They are not catching them young enough . They should do what the proto-fascist Spartans used to do : ( 1 ) Eugenics , throw the unfit infant from a cliff . ( 2 ) Train from infancy , naked in a gym .

@sepheronx

My point about North vs South Korea, etc., was that rump true Ukria will be a zero from an economic perspective. NK is a substantial entity. East
Germany was also a substantial entity. Rump Ukria will likely dissipate since it does not have the resources to support even 10 million people.

I think Russia needs to occupy Malorussia and all of Novorussia. I think it can re-assimilate all of Novorussia, including Odessa, but Malorussia in
the center is uncertain. But it needs to be controlled even if by proxy. The western toilet can go join that NATzO turd collective.