Oreshnik missile system (IRBM)

It doesn`t matter. NATO has no means to discriminate between nuclear and conventional Nutellas. They will always respond with nukes.

They didn't this time... and of course one obvious factor telling you a single missile being launched at a single target in Europe or elsewhere is not likely to be nuclear because you don't start a nuclear war with a single missile delivering nuclear warheads... you launch them all.

Social media is yapping about the missile being launched from Baikanur. LOLWUT. No way Russia launched this from Kazakhstan, especially given its
two faced regime.

It will most likely be truck launched...

Nutella will introduce the massive arsenal of Russian battlefield range tactical nukes to European doorsteps.

A significant portion of these missiles will have kinetic warheads, but even more are very likely to be fitted with nuclear warheads too... these are weapons for serious conflicts but also for WWIII.

Fully dual use, with the hope that conventional warheads can be used to make the nuke warhead models a bit redundant hopefully... but there if needed.

Then the strategic nukes will all be redesignated to target the great satan himself.

Indeed.... these new shorter ranged missiles frees up their ICBMs and SLBMs so the great satan can get a much thicker heavier coverage of warheads.

Medvedev on the consequences of the Oreshnik test:

Europe is wondering what damage the system can cause if the warheads are nuclear, whether it is possible to shoot down these missiles and how quickly the missiles will reach the capitals of the Old World. The answer: the damage is unacceptable, it is impossible to shoot down with modern means and we are talking about minutes. Bomb shelters will not help, so the only hope is that kind Russia will warn about launches in advance. Therefore, it is better to stop supporting the war.

The Ukrainian propagandists have published their curious, proactive missile defense system against the Oreshnik BGRSD: "There is no such thing as Oreshnik at all." That's right, we need to be simpler! And to protect yourself, you just need to close your eyes. For those who close their eyes, the problem disappears automatically.

Western media outlets are vying with each other to suggest that the US equip former Ukraine with nuclear weapons. An excellent idea, especially in light of Russia's new nuclear deterrence doctrine.
It remains to be seen to whom, among the potential enemies of the United States, we could transfer our nuclear technologies.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/113817

You could use thermobaric warheads for above ground soft targets.
Would be fun to watch. From far away.

lyle6 wrote:
A misconception. The kinetic energy is contained within the particles of the projectile. Upon impact a hardened penetrator will not magically disperse and convert all its forward momentum into an outward spread like a conventional explosion...

Well, Well, Well...

https://youtu.be/iL7Hb0fcpbU?feature=shared

Nice video by millennium on Oreshnik

Interestingly he posits it could be a Bulava derivation ,  being that Bulava carries 6-10 MIRVS of 150KT each, that being the spec Putin used

At the same time, kinetic penetrators could be stored within each MIRV, in a 6x6 arrangement

With that speed the damage would be 4500kg worth of devastation or 77 MK84 bombs or double a B52 payload

Very nasty weapon, with the penetrators penetrating deeply into the earth and destroying the underground infrastructure within fortified nuclear protected infrastructure like Azovstal or Yuzmazh

He did a simulation of what it would take to disable Misawa airbase in Japan via Chinese missiles , calculating 117 needed

He then says the Russians basically found a way to minimize this to 5 or 6 missiles with 36 warhead each

Economies of scale employed to wreak huge conventional damage and limit the nuclear risk of retaliation

Russia (like the Soviet Union before it) has quite a few models of operational ballistic missiles (ICBM, IRBM, SLBM, etc.).
I don't see why the new Oreshnik has to be based on any of them.
It could be a completely new design.
Another thing is that the experience with other missiles is used to include it in the new one.
Until we have more reliable information, it is not worth paying much attention to all those OSINT, who spend their time giving their opinions for the sake of gaining views on their networks.

Arkanghelsk wrote:
With that speed the damage would be 4500kg worth of devastation or 77 MK84 bombs or double a B52 payload

This KE weapon psyop is laughably moronic.

A Mk. 84 bomb has 429 kg of explosive filler. A common explosive, tritonal, has 9MJ/kg of specific energy, so a total of 3,861 MJ. This energy all goes into heat.

A 100kg penetrator would be a steel cylinder 1 m tall and 12 cm in diameter. At 3000m/s is will have a KE of 450 MJ. This energy only partially goes into heat - most of it would be spend moving mass around on impact with the target material.

A KE weapon is thus only effective against targets with concentrated energetics (ammo, fuel, power plant) that you can readily identify and target. So targets like tanks, planes, ships. Targeting infrastructure is possible but you will have to rely on the accuracy of the intel. Otherwise all they do is prick tiny but deep holes that can be patched or even ignored.

lyle6 wrote:A misconception. The kinetic energy is contained within the particles of the projectile. Upon impact a hardened penetrator will not magically disperse and convert all its forward momentum into an outward spread like a conventional explosion...

You're right, it depends on the material used. You'll want something sophisticated and that can distribute the energy upon impact in the way that you need. Whether that is shrapnel, superheating of the air, penetration, or some combination of those.

If the payload was 500kg of earth, or 500kg of water - you're not exactly going to get as much of an effect, even if it came in at Mach 10-11

Whatever it hit caused chain explosions for 3-4 hours after the strike



Apparently this piece was procured for Bulava missile, and was found at the Yuzmazh site

It wouldn’t mean Oreshnik isn’t a new missile, Bulava is the most advanced missile in the strategic nuclear forces and is in production

The design of 12 meters long with a modified bus would be a good platform for IRBM, with only 2 solid fuel stages and a liquid fuel final stage for bus maneuvering, as the MIRV separation is apparently sequenced , so there is some kind of advanced maneuvering of the bus prior to separation

They very well could have modified Bulava and even improved it for IRBM purposes , it could even go on Barguzin as a mobile MRBM

Barguzin was said to employ a new missile utilizing the characteristics of Bulava and Yars as well as other developments

Oreshnik could very well be related to Barguzin - the missile was intended a missile based off Bulava

We know Oreshnik is a new missile, and could be from this tree of missile development

Arrow wrote:https://comments.lostarmour.info/api/v1/picture/telegram_41cb2d55dcd89734e5ee1f92910800eeb8476bc1/ct1ispcigdgqv7c9ea7g
There are more photos of Juzmash

There are no traces of the Oreshnik attack. Perhaps there were only decoy warheads. There was no kinetics Unless some penetrators have penetrated the ground deeper. There is no visible damage on the surface. Which is strange, because even a practice warhead should have made a big crater.

Oh that's no problem.

I'm sure another demonstration can be arranged. Daytime this time, in a location that's harder to cordon off. With advanced notice, so that everyone has their phones out for the occasion. And more westwards as well, closer to NATO territory. A lot closer.

There were supposedly hours of explosions after Yuzhmash was hit. There would have to have been explosive materials in the underground bunkers and these kinetic
warheads served their purpose. The value of hypersonic missiles is that they are automatically bunker busters. If you want the bunker turned into a vast crater, then
use an appropriate explosive for the warhead.

A misconception. The kinetic energy is contained within the particles of the projectile. Upon impact a hardened penetrator will not magically disperse and convert all its forward momentum into an outward spread like a conventional explosion...

This is true, which is why this weapon has six separate warhead buses and for each warhead bus there are 6 penetrators.

Once you have penetrated the heavy protection the problem is causing damage... military forces around the world are happy to use full metal jacket ammunitions for small arms because although the lethality of the ammo is massively reduced compared with soft nose or HE rounds, you can make them lethal enough with multiple hits.

That is what this missile is doing... multiple hits using powerful penetrators.

If you play the game War Thunder you will know that hitting a tank with a penetrator that even manages to go right through might not kill all the crew or set off the ammo or the fuel... the only solution is hitting it multiple times... which is what Hazel does.

I don't think FAE warheads would work at 3km/s, so for soft surface targets using large slabs of metal broken up into tiny cubes or spheres that are shattered a certain height above the target would be devastating... like an airborne claymore with fragments moving much faster than any claymore ever made. Of course the small fragments will slow down very fast so the altitude it fragments is critical... and at the end of the day a nuke warhead is always going to be the best option for such targets anyway.

There are no traces of the Oreshnik attack. Perhaps there were only decoy warheads. There was no kinetics dunno Unless some penetrators have penetrated the ground deeper. There is no visible damage on the surface. Which is strange, because even a practice warhead should have made a big crater.

Hmmm... so if there is no damage.... why the artificial cloud cover for a day or two?

Plenty of time to patch holes of course... a tank that is penetrated by APFSDS rounds has a 50mm entry hole usually... cover that with a box or some spare track link and you might think the tank has never been hit at all.

You have to ask yourself why would Russia bother if the damage was superficial... just land them somewhere more public where thousands of people with cameras can record the attack.

This is not a toy, this is a weapon of war and is intended to be able to be used before WWIII starts.... perhaps its impact might even prevent WWIII... but the west is lying and covering things up so the escalations will likely continue.

Russia (like the Soviet Union before it) has quite a few models of operational ballistic missiles (ICBM, IRBM, SLBM, etc.).
I don't see why the new Oreshnik has to be based on any of them.

They don't have to base it on an existing design, but if they do the existing design will be an ICBM or SLBM with a much longer range... so simply taking a rocket stage out will achieve the range and performance they are after without a lot of work.

Of course they could simply load a very heavy warhead on board which could reduce the effective range of an ICBM down the IRBM ranges.

If the new weapon is based on stages of in service in production weapons that means it is already in production... the only difference would be the different payload and launch vehicle, which would be quick and cheap and easy to put into production.

With a flight speed of mach 10 they might replace rocket stages with scramjet powered stages and make them much much smaller and lighter...

A KE weapon is thus only effective against targets with concentrated energetics (ammo, fuel, power plant) that you can readily identify and target.

Large bits of machinery like huge ship engines or large machines on the ground don't cope well will large holes being punched into them, and deep underground any sort of cave in can be problematic.

Introducing a large penetrator into a bunker structure can be very destructive, though obviously making 6 or 36 holes in a bunker has more effect.

It is the worlds first Cluster APFSDS round... from the sky.

I'm sure another demonstration can be arranged. Daytime this time, in a location that's harder to cordon off. With advanced notice, so that everyone has their phones out for the occasion. And more westwards as well, closer to NATO territory. A lot closer.

Reaction from the west and Kiev I would say a repeat performance is almost inevidable... they didn't have it... then they use it... they only have one... then they use it again... they only have a very small number and are afraid to use them... they use five... they need to be banned by international law... lets call it IFU instead of INF... it could stand for I Fucked Up... can we have a do over?

My 2 cent's worth:

The Russians claim that it is a brand new design - not based on anything dating back from the Soviet era. That may be so, but with few exceptions most weapon developments from either the Soviet Union or Russia is based on an evolutionary principle.

Meaning that they have used an existing system and developed it further into a more modern system. Most strategic missiles followed this path and the reason is simple. You save a lot of time, money and R&D that way. The Topol and it's further developments is a very good example of this basic principal.

They may have used certain components from the Baluva, but I don't think it was developed from a SLBM. The launching method of the Baluva (or any other modern SLBM) is probably not suitable in this case. I also don't think it's directly developed from the Yars either, it would then simply be a RS-26 IRBM.

I think the Oreshnik is a relatively small missile with a range of no more than 4000 km - much like the 15P666 "Speed". The Russian classified it as a MRBM in the press, and is part of a series of new missile developments that I think will eventually include the RS-26 - or a development of it - as well.

Apparently this piece was procured for Bulava missile, and was found at the Yuzmazh site

So all the parts and pieces of electronics and hardware that gets bought by any country are fully trackable via numbers printed onto them... how would anyone know what Russia used these parts for... more importantly this is recovered from a huge Ukrainan facility that has been making missiles and rockets from parts for more than 50 years... are they sure this part is from the thing that impacted this facility or are they just making shit up.

Does anyone here have the product part list for all the items ever sold to Russia... and even if they did how the hell would they know this or that part was used in a missile that has never been fired in anger before. If the part was used on Kh-101 then they might have something to compare it with, but Bulava has never been fired at any countries the west could recover it from.

More importantly even if the part was made in Switzerland, it is rather unlikely they will not be able to make any more because they can no longer import those parts because the Swiss are no longer neutral and are now Americas bitches just like most of the rest of Europe.

This story is just cheap propaganda.

Equally if these warheads were dummies and did no damage why obscure the satellite images with fake cloud cover... if it did no damage Kiev would be taking western journalists to see almost no damage done proving this new weapon is useless it is fitted with nuke warheads and they are not likely to launch it at anything with nuke warheads fitted.

Four days have passed, and we get no aftermatch photos.
No leaked photos or shorts ukrs love so much for a whole of the time.
No vids we always get after a few hours at most.
Western satellite pictures are being edited.
All of that - because there is no damage. Nothing happened.
Ukrs are not showing the standing factory working on 3 shifts only because they are so modest, and would never fall so low to make a cheap propaganda. NEVER!
Yes! I buy that!


IT was all just an optical illusion