Eugenio Argentina Sun Dec 29, 2024 12:53 pm
Slavyangrad, [29/12/2024 08:36]
ORESHNIK IN DEPTH
Part 1 of 3
I was honoured and humbled to have had my recent piece on Oreshnik missile warhead composition (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/115916) discussed by Mr. Alexander Mercouris in his latest program (https://youtu.be/NqCZH7PW0j4?si=YQ1ymt6kTGeZq9AS&t=3062).
I will use this as an opportunity to expand "a little" on what I wrote, in order to explain my thought processes and provide more detail about my working hypothesis and its implications. It gets a bit technical at times and for that I'm sorry.
Once again let me stress I am not an engineer, though I have a science background which lends to interpretation of scientific reports such as the one I referenced in my post. My specialisation is not in chemistry or metallurgy, so I rely heavily on the peer-reviewed linked reference (Zhao et al), its inferences and bibliography.
My thought process: We really didn't have much to go on. We got grainy video of Oreshnik submunitions impacting. We know they were delivered by a large ballistic missile, and the impact was at high hypersonic speed. We watched, read and heard analyses and discussions by Mr Mercouris, Professor Ted Postol, and the Millenium 7 channel. After some back and forth, they settled on the conclusion that lacking further evidence, the Oreshnik missile delivered hypersonic inert metal rods which did little more than punch holes in whatever it hit.
Mr. Mercouris drew attention to the fact that the above conclusion failed to explain why President Putin spoke so highly and confidently about the weapon. He also pointed out the complete Ukrainian black out of any media reports or imagery from the targeted Yuzhmash factory complex. If the weapon was indeed inert, why not show the "undamaged" target area? I credit these astute observations for motivating me to investigate further.
In his discussions, Mr. Mercouris spoke of a source who said Oreshnik may have delivered metal explosive munitions known as hextol. I was unable to find any related literature, however the idea of a metal-based explosive piqued my interest and down the rabbit hole of published science papers I went, until I learned about Energetic Structural Materials (ESMs).
Slavyangrad, [29/12/2024 08:36]
ORESHNIK IN DEPTH (continued)
Part 2 of 3
Energetic Structural Materials
ESMs are active structural materials consisting primarily of alloys and composites using active metals such as Al, Zr, Ni, Mg, B, etc. Aluminium-based ESMs have good energy release characteristics, but have low density, low strength and low permeability.
W (tungsten) is much more dense than Al or any of the other active metals listed above, and has much better strength and penetrative capacity. Thermodynamically, tungsten has one of the highest oxidation heat release potentials compared to all other elements - however tungsten has high thermal inertia and low adiabatic flame temperature in air, which impedes its ignition and self-sustaining combustion, even in hypersonic impact.
The report by Zhao et al mentions that an alloy of W and Al could enable and sustain W ignition, however the solid solubility limit of Al in W (15.9%) means a conventional W-Al alloy would not contain enough Al to do so. Zhao et al overcame this using an intensive mechanical alloying process, resulting in an ultra-fine, supersaturated solid solution powder of Al-W, with a density of 6.44g/cm3 (approximately a third that of pure tungsten). The powder could then be fabricated into hard composite projectiles using hot pressing. these projectiles were then fired at high supersonic velocities through steel plates into an observation chamber.
The result of the experiments of Zhao et al was an ESM projectile with both highly penetrative qualities as well as high explosive potential, which (importantly) increased exponentially with impact velocity. The high proportion of Al in the composite enabled and sustained tungsten combustion.
After penetration, the W-Al composite ESM projectile underwent complete plastic deformation and formed a cloud of W and Al particles, which ignited in a reaction process which included an extremely high-temperature field reaching many thousands of degrees - hot enough that any unburned tungsten particles were turned into molten droplets (tungsten's melting point is 3,422 degrees C). It is noteworthy that the experiment by Zhao et al achieved these results without including any form of oxidizer in the composite.
Slavyangrad, [29/12/2024 08:37]
ORESHNIK IN DEPTH (continued from above)
Part 3 of 3
Discussion
The experimental results reported by Zhao et al leave no doubt of the penetrative and explosive potential of a tungsten-aluminium ESM munition. My interpretation of the report is framed by my own effort to connect the dots with regards to possible Oreshnik submunitions.
In my original post, I estimated that such a W-Al composite munition, striking at Mach 10 could yield an explosive energy release rate which measured volumetrically, may be as much as 10 times that of TNT. This was based on a simple numbers extrapolation from the experimental results of Zhao et al. Considering that those numbers were for an ESM composite containing no oxidizing material, I think my estimate is fair and even very conservative.
If we add a solid oxidiser to the composite such as pottasium chlorate (KClO3), then it is very safe to assume the combustion, heat and pressure generated by the munition after initial penetration would be greatly increased.
What would happen when a full-scale, oxidized, 100kg W-Al composite ESM projectile strikes the Earth at Mach 10? We can only draw inferences from the limited existing data such as Zhao et al, and draw conclusions based on logical, plausible premises grounded in established theory.
In this case, I propose that the Oreshnik missile delivered 36 submunitions, each consisting of approximately 100kg of W(Al60) or similar composite, presumably combined with an oxidiser such as potassium chlorate. Everything that follows from here is based on that premise, and the premise that my conclusions inferred from Zhao et al are correct.
Each of Oreshnik's 6 buses delivered 6 of these 100kg W(Al60) rods, and each group of 6 rods fell in a tight, circular formation, impacting at 3200m/s. The kinetic energy and velocity of each projectile was such that each munition penetrated through any surface buildings and disappeared into the foundations underground. in the process, the 6 munitions disintegrated and joined into a distributed, superheated elemental cloud of aluminium, tungsten and oxidizer.
The explosive conflagration of the cloud created a high temperature field reaching many thousands of degrees Celsius, hot enough for the aluminium and tungsten particles to burn completely. The heat and pressure was so intense that everything caught within the field including metals, rock and concrete melted and was vaporized. The pressure wave from the conflagration was such that the surface of the ground along with any buildings was lifted up, until the overpressure underground subsided, at which point everything above the impact points collapsed into the molten cavity below. All that remained was a large crater, filled with molten lava. First responders arriving at the Yuzmash factory, saw what looked like 6 small volcanoes filled with glowing magma.
Then again, I may be completely mistaken, and the Oreshnik warhead was in fact just some shovels melted into crude hunks of iron which had little to no effect, and it's all just a Russian bluff.
@Slavyangrad
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"Bitter realization: Germany will be defenseless against 'Oreshnik' - secret report of the German Foreign Ministry
Western countries “are creating a more dangerous situation and creating a direct threat to Russia, which is prepared to respond. That's the message Moscow is trying to send (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/37772),” Johnson says, praising the Kremlin’s adherence to key agreements. 
Part 1
