TFW you realize that nuclear weapons are unusable and very much useless... Oreshnik is not particularly useful either but if it keeps nuclear weapons off the table it's a good thing.
Wow, what a stupid statement Mr Podvig... this system is clearly not nuclear but it is exactly the sort of missile the Russians are using for their nuclear warheads, so there is two critical things that are most important about this new system... the first critical thing is that western defence systems don't seem to be able to defend against it which is important for both nuclear and conventionally armed Russian missiles.... ie they can't be stopped by these expensive fancy US ABM systems they keep talking about will save them during WWIII, and the second critical thing is that the non nuclear version can be used without starting WWIII... which makes them the newest tested long ranged ballistic missile system after the V2 and Scud and ATACMs and Iskander, and like all of those missiles EXCEPT the American ATACMS... the V2 and the Scud and the Iskander and the Hazelnut all seem to be difficult or impossible to intercept by the defenders so far.
Western experts say that Russia is capable of producing 25 Oreshniks per year.
The track record of western intelligence is abysmal... Russia has been at war for over three years and has been running out of artillery shells and guns and missiles for a good 2.5 years now... western intel is full of shit.
Whether the warhead sub-munitions can is the real question
We saw in the video of the attack that the six payloads were delivered separately and presumably could be scattered rather more widely but that the actual penetrators from each of the 6 MIRVS appear to be deployed in a line based on the shape of the target and didn't randomly scatter in a rough circle of hits around a central point of aim.
In other words there are six warhead buses and each bus has 6 separate MIRV penetrators that are aimed too rather than 6 buses that randomly scatter 6 warheads around the point of aim like you would to destroy a very large target like a city.
In this case for instance one of the warhead buses could deal with an enormous target like say London or Paris where one warhead bus would be launched at the city with the six individual warheads impacting around London with a 200Kt payload or something to spread the damage over an enormous area and kill lots and lots of people... so with 6 buses you could target 6 cities with each missile and hit each city with 6 nukes to level them precisely based on the shape and structure of the city and any ports nearby.
But until we get evidence that they can, it's prudent to assume that they can't, and that they simply land in a pattern around the area targeted, maybe with a size of spread that can be regulated by changing the height at which they are released. Whether you're targeting a bunker with penetrators, or an airfield with cluster munitions - that's pretty much what you would want anyway.
The impact points for each penetrator seems to be linear and based on the linear shape of the target suggesting a non random impact pattern... which of course would be critical for a kinetic impactor so it hits specific points on the target to do the maximum damage. For a city killer with nuclear warheads such precision is wasted and a large circular random pattern to spread the shock waves would be more effective.
They keep guessing at how many Russia can produce a month or per year, but they don't say how long Russia has been producing them already for and therefore how large a stock it already has. Maybe they have no idea. And Russia is certainly not volunteering that information
They definitely have no idea and are likely just very very hopeful...
They are also so very often wrong that I would not put much faith in their estimates.
I am not questioning whether it is MIRV or not; I am only wondering about the area that can be covered by one missile and its six warheads.
It normally depends on whether the payloads are MIRVs or MaRVs... MIRVs tended to have to be delivered rather specifically down the flight path of the missile, so targets up to 180km either side of the missile flight path could be attacked, but MaRVs can spread out after release and attack targets much further afield.
Of course no sub, say in the Black Sea could hit targets in northern Europe and also in northern Africa with one missiles warheads.
Normal procedure would be for targets that require multiple hits... like London or Paris that if you are launching 6 missiles in that general direction that the first warhead on each missile would go after London, while the second warhead on each of the 6 missiles would be aimed at Paris, and then the third warhead on each of the missiles might be directed at 3 or 4 ports within range.
This means if one missile fails you still get 5 hits on target and the target is destroyed... the warheads coming in from different directions which makes it harder to defend against too.
In any case it gives the Putin an option that is short of armageddon, which I am sure brings him great relief. He is also not the sort to use it recklessly.
He needs the capacity to give his hysterical enemies a slap without stepping into nuclear warfare.
Therefore, there is no point in comparing the current NATO air force and taking it into account. In case of emergency, few planes will be able to take off. About 15 minutes and most of the NATO air force is gone.
And all the eggs in one basket HATO strategy is therefore exposed as being suicidal because that air power was supposed to be used both for attack and for defence... leaving them horribly exposed to Russian air power as small as it is...
Meanwhile, the US finally launched its Dark Eagle IRBM.
The difference of course is that Russia has a range of AD systems like S-300V4 (4.5mk/s), S-350 (?), S-400 (4.8km/s) and S-500 (7km/s) and of course Nudel (?) and the ABM systems around Moscow and likely around other large cities in Russia soon too...
I guess they would use the Iskanders too; Northern Russia has plenty of forested areas for road mobile Oresniks to hide in, & now Finland & Sweden with their F-18s & J-39s turned sitting ducks will deeply regret about joining NATO!
Probably would not take much to extend the range of the Iskander now the INF treaty has expired... A longer slimmer shaped missile that is simpler and cheaper and more basic... perhaps with one extra stage to make it more efficient in terms of flight range (to get it up and moving before the main engine starts in much the same way the air launched Kinzhal starts its engine at 18km altitude and mach 2.2 flight speed, which extends its range to 2,000km)
bot not a single one of the Yushmash ... Interesting, isn't it?
Information is being strictly controlled and the wrong information is dismissed as propaganda...