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    2024 Iran–Israel conflict #2

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Fri Nov 01, 2024 7:24 pm


    True that some Iranian missiles seem to land , say at Nevatim , at a large radius not looking like they hit anything . But also there are some strikes that seem very accurate , hitting middle of a runway or hangar ! During WW2 , the Germans targeted London with V2 flying bombs . A statistical study was conducted after the war to establish if these strikes were targeted or random . To me it looks like some Rockets were flying on inertial navigation , hence a cep of 1 ~ 2 km , what you would expect from older missile flying 1000 km . But some had cep of 1~2 meters . This was done without GPS . So go figure !

    @ Starman

    If Iran has nukes , then a full scale war highly unlikely or even impossible . An entirely different metric , no more conventional considerations . Also Iranian Army can advance across a hundred or more axis on land . Each axis would have a dispersed formation . No air force can destroy by bombing a mobile dispersed force like this . Plus , I doubt if any runways left in the region to allow bombing . No need to rely on AD . Although mobile AD units can travel too . Blockade and invasion can be done . The Jews will surrender , rather than die and use their nukes . They could not use nukes anyway , since Iran could retaliate in kind . Again a million troops spread across the ME advancing , can not be destroyed , even with nukes . Especially if those troops are sitting at their border . Such a small territory !



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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Fri Nov 01, 2024 7:37 pm

    ⚡| 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Additional satellite imagery of Israel’s Tel Nof Airbase shows that a shelter/hangar and possibly the aircraft inside of it have been completely destroyed.

    This base is one of the 3 main (air) bases of Israel.


    2024 Iran–Israel conflict #2 - Page 8 GbUduY1WQAA8dB3?format=jpg&name=medium


    https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/11824

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Fri Nov 01, 2024 7:44 pm

    Isos wrote:I doubt thry have the capacity to build many of their systems. Their capabilities are also exagerated, we saw how their BM lack precision when hitting Israel.
    The Iranians have a whole menagerie of missile systems. The older ones like the Shahab-3 or Qadr-110 which are Scud derived are less accurate. But those are not the only missiles they have. For example they have the Qasem which is a MARV and should be way more accurate.

    Isos wrote:They don't have the knowledge to build something like a S-400.
    They do. The Bavar 373.
    2024 Iran–Israel conflict #2 - Page 8 Bavar-10

    Iran has spent most of its money on missiles, so looking at their other military capabilities and trying to extrapolate that to missiles is a bad idea.

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    Post  Mir Fri Nov 01, 2024 8:02 pm

    lancelot wrote:
    They do. The Bavar 373.

    It's not made by Thales and it does not shoot polony - so it's no good Laughing

    Anyway lets see what Round 2 will bring to the table...

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    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 02, 2024 3:36 am

    During WW2 , the Germans targeted London with V2 flying bombs . A statistical study was conducted after the war to establish if these strikes were targeted or random . To me it looks like some Rockets were flying on inertial navigation , hence a cep of 1 ~ 2 km , what you would expect from older missile flying 1000 km . But some had cep of 1~2 meters . This was done without GPS . So go figure !

    I think you are referring to the buzz bombs, which were the V-1s, which used a simple autogyro autopilot to fly legs of a flight to target and could only be used because the target was London and therefore enormous.

    There was no precise targeting with these weapons... their CEP was probably closer to 10-20km. If it happened to hit something important... well they got lucky, but a lot of the time they would land in open fields or the middle of a road or open area and do very little damage at all.

    It is like the Scud from Desert Storm... most of the time they hit nothing. One time they hit a Marine Barracks and killed 70 odd Americans. It all comes down to luck and numbers. When you are firing a dozen rockets a day eventually you are going to hit something that inflicts pain.... that is just maths.

    In fact there was a discussion about the strike that hit the Barracks and it was believed that the Scud that hit it had been hit by a Patriot, but instead of destroying it mid air it actually changed its course and led to the hit.

    With Iranian missiles these days some are going to be deflected from their target by partial interceptions and of course the various countermeasures and jamming can effect accuracy as well, but of course some of the rockets used might be old time expired weapons being used up to add numbers to the attack to confuse and tie up the air defences too.

    As they burn through their old stocks and also use new missiles and evaluate their performance their knowledge and the quality of the weapons they use and make moving forward will only improve.

    People so quickly forget that the attack on Syria by the west involved about 103 weapons, of which 73 were shot down by the Syria air defences... before they were networked into an IADS. Most of the missiles that hit hit old buildings that used to be used in their chemical industry but had been abandoned for a decade or more, so the ones that did hit something didn't hit anything important... which is important too... you can shoot down some and jam and decoy others, but if the enemy direct their missiles at things that are not really important... like ships and subs in dry dock... then even the ones that get through are not the end of the world.

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    Post  Isos Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:30 am

    They don't... it's not because it has big missiles and big radars that it is a S-400 analogue. They have nothing like a S-400.
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    Post  lyle6 Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:28 am

    The Bavar 373 is a nice attempt but its nothing like the S-400.

    Bavar-373 doesn't have anything like the S-400's unparalleled connectivity to a unified battle network - inside it can talk to a multitude of sensors nets which could include other AD batteries, aircraft like AWACS and interceptors, specialized sensors like space satellites, etc., to share information and allow integrated action while the commanders can exercise complete control over the whole force.

    Its like comparing an entire orchestra playing on one sheet of music to a couple of good musicians playing by the ear in an impromptu session. Worlds apart is not even overstating it.

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    Eugenio Argentina
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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Sat Nov 02, 2024 12:20 pm

    Middle East Spectator, [2/11/2024 06:04]
    🇮🇷/🇮🇱 IRGC Spokesman, Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Naeini: 'The Zionist entity thinks that Iran will not respond to it. The Zionists believe that Iran is afraid of entering into a war with them and confronting them directly. This perception is an example of the Zionist entity’s wrong calculations.'



    Middle East Spectator, [2/11/2024 06:17]
    🇮🇷/🇮🇱 IRGC Spokesman: 'Iran's response to the Zionist entity is inevitable and will be decisive, strong, and thoughtful and will exceed the enemy's imagination.'



    Middle East Spectator, [2/11/2024 08:10]
    ❗🇮🇷/🇮🇱/🇺🇸 Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khamenei: 'Our enemies, both America and the Zionist regime, should know that they will receive a tooth-breaking response to what they are doing against Iran and the Resistance Front.'

    https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/11872

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    Post  The-thing-next-door Sat Nov 02, 2024 2:55 pm

    lyle6 wrote:The Bavar 373 is a nice attempt but its nothing like the S-400.

    Bavar-373 doesn't have anything like the S-400's unparalleled connectivity to a unified battle network - inside it can talk to a multitude of sensors nets which could include other AD batteries, aircraft like AWACS and interceptors, specialized sensors like space satellites, etc., to share information and allow integrated action while the commanders can exercise complete control over the whole force.

    Its like comparing an entire orchestra playing on one sheet of music to a couple of good musicians playing by the ear in an impromptu session. Worlds apart is not even overstating it.


    I would imagine the S-400 has rather more advantages than mere networking.
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    Post  starman Sat Nov 02, 2024 2:57 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Their missiles penetrated but they lack precision, most ended up hitting the desert. You can see the satelitte images.

    Israeli attack was more successful as they destroyed a number of radars system, AD systems and some sort of production facilities. Iranian was more impressive but they barely destroyed anything of value.

    There have been claims that in both April and October Iran deliberately limited the damage it inflicted, in part by not using its best missiles, to avoid provoking an allout israeli response.
    As for israeli effectiveness, while the zionists did score quite a few hits, it's hard to know how much damage they really did. Iran had three weeks to prepare, perhaps by removing and hiding key equipment. Both sides may hype their alleged achievements for public relations purposes, while limiting actual damage to avoid serious escalation.
    Lastly, IF the report that Iran will produce SU-35s under license is true, that may mark a quantum leap in its domestic arms production capability.Smile

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Sat Nov 02, 2024 7:51 pm

    🇮🇷⚡🇺🇸🇮🇱🇪🇺 Head of the Strategic Council for Iran's Foreign Policy Kamal Kharrazi:

    - What the Israelis did in response to our missile attack by launching 200 missiles at the Israeli entity was in fact disproportionate.

    - Iranian air defense systems were one of the most important factors that confronted them.

    - Inside the entity, they expected more from this Israeli move, and what they did was less than expected.

    - The Islamic Republic will definitely respond to the Israeli aggression at the appropriate time and manner.

    - The matter today is related to the Israelis. If they really want to continue, it's natural that we will respond to them.

    - Iran does not interfere in negotiations, and this matter is the responsibility of the Lebanese and Palestinians

    - Changing Iran's nuclear doctrine is still on the table if Iran faces an existential threat

    - We now have the technical capabilities necessary to produce nuclear weapons, and the fatwa of the leader of the revolution is the only thing preventing that.

    - Our missile capabilities are clear to everyone and everyone believes in them, and we have proven that during our operations.

    - The current issue is the ranges of these missiles, about which we still notice the concerns of Western countries.

    - When Western countries do not notice our concerns regarding Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, we do not need to care about their concerns.

    - It's likely that the ranges of Iranian missiles will be developed and increased.

    - The West defends the crimes of the occupation by sending it money and weapons.

    - The will and resistance of peoples can never be broken


    https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/14326
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    Post  nomadski Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:05 pm

    I have heard people say " we will do this or that , if the enemy used nukes or existential threat ! " It is too late then to do this or that . Too late for a nuclear counterattack . Too late to destroy world oil . Too late to launch 100,000 ballistic missiles to Europe or America or Israel . The time to do this or that is now . The time to display power . Display nukes . Display ICBM . Break tooth !

    Twisted Evil

    Have thought about this problem before . In a conventional attack that is existential , there is perhaps more time . Nuke / ICBM can be revealed after an attack . This has the added advantage of avoiding economic / political problems until after the start of a conventional attack , even if it proves ultimately to be  existential . In a nuclear attack , this thinking is wrong . The attack will prove existential and fatal immediately . No time for retaliation . In this case when war is imminent , it is best to assume the worst . That is , Israel or America will use a nuclear strike on several targets in Iran , including a city or two . And the world will condemn , but do nothing about it . Can you see how much the world cares about the genocide in Gaza ? The numerous non-existent and useless U.N. Resolutions that stand for nothing . So using Nukes is a viable option . We live in such troubled times .

    Rolling Eyes

    Edit : The idea of the ladder of escalation , different from a proportional response , may not be applicable in the Israeli case . Since Israel is not a normal country in a normal situation . They seem to be in the warpath , ready to destroy entirely their enemy . And if they want war , can Iran avoid it ? No it can not . The reason they see themselves in an existential battle , is because they are in an existential battle with their Arab and Muslim neighbours . Iran is therefore in an existential battle with Israel . The sooner Iran sees this the better .


    Last edited by nomadski on Sun Nov 03, 2024 5:52 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  GarryB Sun Nov 03, 2024 1:52 am

    S-400 is a very powerful system but Syria didn't use any S-400s either.

    In fact a combination of BUK and TOR would be rather useful if you had them in significant numbers, and indeed the new S-350 and the improved BUK (Viking) would probably be ideal for the job together with TOR to defend the SAMs doing the heavy lifting.

    Pantsir would be a useful system too against cruise missile types and drones trying to take down your heavy SAMs.

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Sun Nov 03, 2024 2:38 am

    🇮🇷|🇮🇷 The IRGC spokesman:
    “The leaders of the Israeli regime should protect the windows of their own bedrooms and their criminal pilots.”

    @FotrosResistance

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Mon Nov 04, 2024 12:33 am

    🇮🇷/🇮🇱 ANALYSIS: In my opinion, I think that Iran will not attack Israel before the U.S. Presidential Election. The WSJ article also seems to confirm this.

    While Iran dislikes Kamala Harris and Donald Trump equally, Harris is less likely to engage in a full-scale war against Iran, so Iran wants her to win. They don't want to take the risk of possibly influencing the election outcome by attacking Israel and delivering another major foreign policy failure to Kamala Harris, especially so close before Election Day.

    I also think one of the reasons that Iran won't respond very fast is because the Israelis didn't respond fast either. And the Israelis didn't respond fast because Iran didn't respond fast after Ismael Haniyeh. In my opinion, Iran is doing this on purpose.

    By constantly waiting 1-2 months to retaliate, Iran is spreading the conflict over multiple months, across several seperate cycles of violence that are manageable and can be somewhat controlled. This allows Iran to repair, adapt and prepare for all scenarios between each new wave of exchanges.

    Iran is actively trying to control the pace of the escalation ladder, which is good. Israel's strength lies in short, powerful attacks that paralyze the enemy. If they are forced into a new cycle of exchanges every few months, this won't be in their favour at all. Israel is not very adaptable, and they are already under huge pressure, facing multiple different war fronts at once. Iran has time on its side.

    @Middle_East_Spectator

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:24 am

    ResistanceTrench mirror, [5/11/2024 04:40]
    🇮🇷⚡IRGC Aerospace Force commander: When we fire a Khorramshahr missile, it becomes 80 rockets when it reaches the target. If we launch 100 missiles, 80,000 rockets will fall on the target site.

    ResistanceTrench mirror, [5/11/2024 04:43]
    🇮🇷⚡General Hajizadeh: There are few cities in Iran that do not have an underground missile base. The missile cities of Iran are 500 meters underground.

    The number of our missile cities is so large that if they are detected, the enemy will not be able to counter them. What you see is like the tip of an iceberg.
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    Post  nomadski Thu Nov 07, 2024 2:15 am

    https://en.mehrnews.com/news/224114/Hezbollah-fires-missiles-at-Israel-military-base-in-Tel-Aviv


    Ok good . Some were complaining " why airfield or airport not hit . " Now they can be hit with 300 km range , 500 kg warhead  , 10 meter CEP missile , very accurate . Israel dropped 70,000 Tons on Palestinians ? killed up to 200,000 ? Displaced 2000,000 ? Need 140,000 Fateh 110 ! Oh wait not possible ? Need something bigger ?

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Fri Nov 15, 2024 1:42 pm

    ❗Expediency Council member and senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Larijani:

    ○ "Iran will stand by Lebanon, its government, and people under all circumstances."

    ○ "We consider standing next to Lebanon as one of the duties of the Iranian government and we hope that the conditions of the country will soon improve."

    ○ "The primary goal of our visit is to say that we are standing by and support Lebanon."

    ○ "We will support any decision made by the Lebanese government."

    ○ "We are seeking to solve problems while Netanyahu is the one who ruins matters, one must distinguish between friends and enemies."

    ○ "Hezbollah is a solid party, the Lebanese people are a great people, and we will support the resistance."

    ○ "We will support any decision made by the Lebanese resistance and government."
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    Post  nomadski Fri Nov 15, 2024 3:14 pm

    Heard rumours that Iranians were discussing the response to Israel . Some saying a heavy response , some saying a light response . In any case , the retaliation to Iranian response , can be light or heavy also . There is no way of knowing about this . But it is best to assume the worst . What is the worst ? An attack by Israel and America and co , using nukes and large number of jets and missiles . They have nukes designed as bunker busters , especially for Iran . They can fly carrier based planes from 4000 km range and fire extended range cruise missiles from 4000 km distance also , from B52 or submarines at Diego Garcia .

    The only way to deter them from using nukes , is ICBM nukes . The only way to defeat their jets and missiles from 4000 km range , is by using land Army to destroy Israel and all their bases in region . So Iran needs nukes and a land Army to advance . It is no good asking permission to cross borders . Iran has to smash through land and Sea borders , across the PG and Iraq , Syria , Lebanon and Israel . Smash through anything that stands in the way . Are they asking permission to cross ? You just do it !

    lol1
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    Post  starman Fri Nov 15, 2024 4:48 pm

    nomadski wrote:
    Heard rumours that Iranians were discussing the response to Israel . Some saying a heavy response , some saying a light response .


    I suggest Iran cool it with Israel for now and spend the next several years building up its strength and circumventing sanctions as best it can. They shouldn't give zionist lunatics the pretext they want to set Iran back back several years, or worse.


    The only way to defeat their jets and missiles from 4000 km range , is by using land Army to destroy Israel and all their bases in region .

    Sorry to say, this is perversely optimistic. It would take a herculean effort for Iran to build armored forces, AD etc capable of standing up to Israel in an adjacent area like Syria.

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    Post  nomadski Fri Nov 15, 2024 6:04 pm

    Yes ideally Iran itself can wait for that  . But the Israelis will not wait for that . Neither  can the Palestinians wait for that . Nor can the Lebanese Hezb Allah . Waiting means more attacks on Iran , Lebanon , Syria , Yemen , Gaza . There won't be anyone left to rescue .

    Rolling Eyes

    Regarding air force or AD . They obviously have advantage in this . But a mobile land army , can still attack in large numbers and overwhelm their defences . Sure there will be casualties , but not as many as there would be in classical static defences . There will not be many planes that can take off anyway . And those that do , may at best carry out one bombing run , in the time it takes Iranian land forces to reach Israel . Dispersed forces can absorb this attack easily , and carry on with advance at speed . That is not the problem . The problem is the Israeli and American nukes . They will launch nukes , while Iranian forces are on route , unless Iran has nukes . Then it is possible to approach their border and cross it and smash them . We may even find other armies joining in the march , instead of opposing . Even the Jordanians may join or Saudis ....

    Twisted Evil

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Sat Nov 16, 2024 12:54 pm

    At the moment, the use of nuclear weapons seems difficult.
    Regarding Israeli air supremacy against a possible ground invasion, I do not see it as effective.
    It is enough to see that they cannot defeat the Palestinians in Gaza, who resist despite more than a year of massive bombings with planes, guns and tanks.
    Not to mention Lebanon, where for more than a month, the Israelis have not been able to advance or occupy any important point. In addition to losing about 50 vehicles.
    Iran has shown that it can effectively attack with its missiles and, if it wants, cause several times more damage using more powerful weapons.
    A US/Israeli bombing of Iran (beyond the great damage it causes) would not succeed in stopping Iranian military power. It is enough to see the examples cited and that of Yemen, which despite the Saudi invasion and bombing (added to that of the West, currently), continues to respond and even develop advanced weapons.


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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Sat Nov 16, 2024 1:23 pm

    — American Fighter Pilots recount the horror they encountered during Iran’s True Promise-1 attack: “We were shocked by the volume of launches”

    On April 13, during Iran’s TP-1 attack, the US claims it intercepted over 70 drones & missiles launched toward Israel.

    An F-15 fighter jet crew shared their experience of running out of supplies within a short time and having to land under fire: “We declared an emergency, not knowing if a missile would explode on our wing.” One pilot described a failed attempt to intercept an Iranian drone: “We descended far below the minimum altitude, racing toward the ground in total darkness.”

    Captain Lacey Hester, a weapons systems officer on the F-15 jet, said, “When we received the order to fly that night, we had no idea how it would end.”

    Pilot Timothy Causey added, “We didn’t have much time to train for the attack. Iran could launch massive numbers of drones because of their low cost, and our job was to protect the citizens of our ally, even though we weren’t prepared for an assault of this scale.”

    (Via Channel 12)

    @FotrosResistance

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    Post  nomadski Sat Nov 16, 2024 7:59 pm

    Unless Iran has a minimum credible nuclear deterrent , including ICBM or similar , then any attack on Israel or the Yanks is ill advised . I have no doubt that they will use nukes against Iran , given the opportunity . They built the B61 warhead , for Iran ! The bigger the attack , the bigger the chances of nuclear response . The Yanks seriously considered using Nukes in Korea . I remember casual talk of the use of nukes against Iraq . Apparently twelve occasions so far , when the use of nukes seriously considered , not including accidents .


    https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Sun Nov 17, 2024 2:08 pm

    🇮🇷| Iran’s FM: We have informed the IAEA and regional countries that if the israeli regime attacks our nuclear facilities, we will respond in kind. The Zionists know exactly what will happen if they attack our nuclear facilities.

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