We need to forget about Armenia for a while, by Andrey Perla, political scientist, for VZGLYAD. 09.20.2024.
The latest statements by the Armenian Prime Minister pose a simple and important question: what should Russia do with Armenia? Or perhaps the question is even simpler: should anything be done with it at all, or should the Armenians sort things out for themselves?
This summer in Armenia, your humble servant, as is the habit of a political scientist, talked about politics with many people - businessmen, scientists, guides and just passers-by. In Yerevan and in Jermuk, in Sevan and in Totev. There were almost no supporters of Pashinyan among my interlocutors. But there were also no active opponents ready to go out to protests and demand a change in the government and the course the country is taking. But in various strata of Armenian society, there were many people who said something like this: “We are all waiting for Putin to remember Armenia. He will find some Armenian in Moscow and send him to our government.” One of these people spoke more decisively: “I don’t even want to think about what will happen if Russia turns away from Armenia. I just don’t want to imagine it. Because it will be a dystopia. If we have something to hope for, it is only in Russia.”
Reading the latest news from Armenia, you understand that its ruler, Nikol Vovaevich Pashinyan, is also constantly waiting for Russia to remember Armenia – only, unlike the citizens of his country, he is very afraid of this. While Russia is busy with more important matters on the western border, Pashinyan is in a hurry to sever as many ties with our country as possible. And replace them with ties with the West.
If we look at what is happening from this point of view, we have to admit: Pashinyan, who said : “We have frozen our membership in the CSTO not only because the CSTO does not fulfill its obligations to ensure Armenia’s security, but also because the CSTO creates threats to Armenia’s security, its continued existence, sovereignty and statehood” – did not surprise anyone at all. The statement is absolutely in line with his already habitual policy. So what is interesting is not what he says, and not how the Armenians will react to these speeches – we already know that there will be no truly mass protest. It is interesting what Russia will do with Armenia now.
There seem to be only two options for reasonable behaviour.
The first is to ignore what Pashinyan says and act as if everything is fine, Armenia remains in the sphere of Russian influence. Continue cooperation both within the CSTO (words are words, but no one has cancelled obligations under international treaties) and within the EAEU (especially economic obligations have not been cancelled, and no one has even made statements on this matter). This may work, because Pashinyan’s words and Armenia’s real foreign policy may be indirectly related to each other. In any case, the appearance of a French, American and NATO military base in Armenia in the current conditions is even more difficult to imagine than the voluntary withdrawal of the Russians from their military base.
The second option is to respect the words of the prime minister elected by the majority, shrug and leave Armenia to its fate. You don’t want a close union, you expect the West to protect you from Turkey? Please, do as you please. Such a position, if taken as a basis, will have a very sober calculation: in a few years, Armenia will naturally (if it survives) reach out to Russia again. Despite all the efforts of the West. Just like it already happened with Georgia. We did absolutely nothing, and then, lo and behold, a law on foreign agents, restoration of air traffic with Moscow and the fight against the LGBT rampage. And no European choice. Because it is more profitable with Russia, no matter how you look at it.
True, Pashinyan is not only making statements now. He is simulating a “fight against Russian influence.” On September 18, the Armenian authorities reported the detention of a group of people for “an attempt to usurp power through an armed coup.” These people were allegedly trained in Russia. The provocation is obvious – but is it worth giving in to this provocation?
Let's go back to the beginning. There are indeed many people in Armenia who would like Russia to save their country and them. To provide them with a good life by preserving and increasing economic ties. The motives of these people are quite understandable and rational - Armenia has nowhere to export its famous cognac except Russia, and nowhere to get a flow of tourists except from Russia. And there is no serious force in sight that would protect Armenia from its enemies except the Russians.
Among these people, there are those who are simply waiting for help, and those who directly blame Russia for the fact that this long-awaited help has not yet arrived. There are also those who are sure that it is Russia that is to blame for the fact that as a result of the last war, Armenia lost Nagorno-Karabakh – they are sure despite the fact that Armenia did not ask for help at any official level, and it was the Russians who acted as peacekeepers.
In Armenia, and even more so among Armenians, there are many who would like the Russians to feel guilty, and on this basis would selflessly help Armenia, contrary to their own interests.
But no matter how much we like Armenia, the situation is not conducive to rushing headlong to help. We have no extra resources – neither economic, nor military, nor political. On the other hand, there is no reason to spoil relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Turkey, by the way, is currently moving further and further away from NATO and the EU and is moving closer to BRICS and Russia. The Armenian leadership, in turn, is trying to go in the opposite direction – so is it worth interfering? It is logical in this situation to leave Armenia to its own fate. At least for a while. After the victorious completion of the NWO, it will be possible to look in that direction again. But for now, let them do it themselves.
https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/9/20/1288080.html
The latest statements by the Armenian Prime Minister pose a simple and important question: what should Russia do with Armenia? Or perhaps the question is even simpler: should anything be done with it at all, or should the Armenians sort things out for themselves?
This summer in Armenia, your humble servant, as is the habit of a political scientist, talked about politics with many people - businessmen, scientists, guides and just passers-by. In Yerevan and in Jermuk, in Sevan and in Totev. There were almost no supporters of Pashinyan among my interlocutors. But there were also no active opponents ready to go out to protests and demand a change in the government and the course the country is taking. But in various strata of Armenian society, there were many people who said something like this: “We are all waiting for Putin to remember Armenia. He will find some Armenian in Moscow and send him to our government.” One of these people spoke more decisively: “I don’t even want to think about what will happen if Russia turns away from Armenia. I just don’t want to imagine it. Because it will be a dystopia. If we have something to hope for, it is only in Russia.”
Reading the latest news from Armenia, you understand that its ruler, Nikol Vovaevich Pashinyan, is also constantly waiting for Russia to remember Armenia – only, unlike the citizens of his country, he is very afraid of this. While Russia is busy with more important matters on the western border, Pashinyan is in a hurry to sever as many ties with our country as possible. And replace them with ties with the West.
If we look at what is happening from this point of view, we have to admit: Pashinyan, who said : “We have frozen our membership in the CSTO not only because the CSTO does not fulfill its obligations to ensure Armenia’s security, but also because the CSTO creates threats to Armenia’s security, its continued existence, sovereignty and statehood” – did not surprise anyone at all. The statement is absolutely in line with his already habitual policy. So what is interesting is not what he says, and not how the Armenians will react to these speeches – we already know that there will be no truly mass protest. It is interesting what Russia will do with Armenia now.
There seem to be only two options for reasonable behaviour.
The first is to ignore what Pashinyan says and act as if everything is fine, Armenia remains in the sphere of Russian influence. Continue cooperation both within the CSTO (words are words, but no one has cancelled obligations under international treaties) and within the EAEU (especially economic obligations have not been cancelled, and no one has even made statements on this matter). This may work, because Pashinyan’s words and Armenia’s real foreign policy may be indirectly related to each other. In any case, the appearance of a French, American and NATO military base in Armenia in the current conditions is even more difficult to imagine than the voluntary withdrawal of the Russians from their military base.
The second option is to respect the words of the prime minister elected by the majority, shrug and leave Armenia to its fate. You don’t want a close union, you expect the West to protect you from Turkey? Please, do as you please. Such a position, if taken as a basis, will have a very sober calculation: in a few years, Armenia will naturally (if it survives) reach out to Russia again. Despite all the efforts of the West. Just like it already happened with Georgia. We did absolutely nothing, and then, lo and behold, a law on foreign agents, restoration of air traffic with Moscow and the fight against the LGBT rampage. And no European choice. Because it is more profitable with Russia, no matter how you look at it.
True, Pashinyan is not only making statements now. He is simulating a “fight against Russian influence.” On September 18, the Armenian authorities reported the detention of a group of people for “an attempt to usurp power through an armed coup.” These people were allegedly trained in Russia. The provocation is obvious – but is it worth giving in to this provocation?
Let's go back to the beginning. There are indeed many people in Armenia who would like Russia to save their country and them. To provide them with a good life by preserving and increasing economic ties. The motives of these people are quite understandable and rational - Armenia has nowhere to export its famous cognac except Russia, and nowhere to get a flow of tourists except from Russia. And there is no serious force in sight that would protect Armenia from its enemies except the Russians.
Among these people, there are those who are simply waiting for help, and those who directly blame Russia for the fact that this long-awaited help has not yet arrived. There are also those who are sure that it is Russia that is to blame for the fact that as a result of the last war, Armenia lost Nagorno-Karabakh – they are sure despite the fact that Armenia did not ask for help at any official level, and it was the Russians who acted as peacekeepers.
In Armenia, and even more so among Armenians, there are many who would like the Russians to feel guilty, and on this basis would selflessly help Armenia, contrary to their own interests.
But no matter how much we like Armenia, the situation is not conducive to rushing headlong to help. We have no extra resources – neither economic, nor military, nor political. On the other hand, there is no reason to spoil relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Turkey, by the way, is currently moving further and further away from NATO and the EU and is moving closer to BRICS and Russia. The Armenian leadership, in turn, is trying to go in the opposite direction – so is it worth interfering? It is logical in this situation to leave Armenia to its own fate. At least for a while. After the victorious completion of the NWO, it will be possible to look in that direction again. But for now, let them do it themselves.
https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/9/20/1288080.html