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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61

    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Oct 21, 2024 9:14 am

    ALAMO wrote:....
    A 50k NK special forces would be just enough to close a giant part of the border.
    And those men are highly trained in both infiltration and anti-saboteur - they would hunt down ukro DRGs like on a fukin hunting season...
    Those guys have been trained by a system at war for the last 70 years ...
    Try to imagine that Laughing Laughing


    Shit, now I want to see this cry



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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Oct 21, 2024 9:55 am

    Sujoy wrote:Ukraine's balloon drones


    Doesn't sound like it can be used for anything other than terrorizing civilian homes
    Which I guess is the point

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Mon Oct 21, 2024 10:17 am

    more like 6-700 due to routine BDA overcounting.
    The MoD is undercounting regularly.

    So what's the situation at the front?
    The situation in the Chasiv Jar and Siversk areas look promising.

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    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Mon Oct 21, 2024 12:35 pm

    Sujoy wrote:Ukraine's balloon drones


    GRU is going to be very busy killing a lot of these terrorists and their supporters. It might not be this year, or next year, but they have very long reach and patience. Hope the x-bucks were worth it at least! Razz

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Mon Oct 21, 2024 1:30 pm

    Fun fact: In Russian Telegram channels, the Russian Army is often referred to as the 'Laotian Army'—especially when discussing top brass failures, mismanagement, or stupid decisions. I guess it's to avoid accusations of defamation of the Russian Armed Forces (which could be reported by those morons in high ranks).

    Actually extra fun fact, during the Vietnam war the Americans bomb Laos, trying to hit enemy support columns bringing equipment and weapons from north to south but bypassing official US airpower. The US famously used their first gunships... modified C-47 transports as AC-47 the precursor to the AC-130. These gunships would fly down these enemy support columns blazing away with their guns making claims for the number of trucks and tanks and other vehicles they destroyed on each run. Unfortunately for them when recon went through after the attacks to determine how many vehicles were actually destroyed the number was always a fraction of the numbers being claimed. Now this could be because some vehicle carcasses might have been dragged away and not counted afterwards, but the main source of the error was the great Laotian dragon which eats vehicles whole leading to them not being counted in the after action recon count.

    IF you look up the western biased interweb these days they claim the AC-47 was called puff the magic dragon because the NVA are stupid and have never seen guns on a plane before...

    Establishing new Ukrainian formations is now out of the question and it's becoming apparent that even those currently in the field are seriously understrength, with rumors of some units wiped out and not reconstituted. This is a key explanation for the significant Russian gains of the last few months.

    Hahaha.... yeah.... it is not that the Russians know what they are doing and are using their weapons and equipment and ammo and men efficiently and effectively... the only reason they are advancing is because Kiev is running out of men.

    I seem to remember America lost in Vietnam because the politicians had no guts and the damn American media kept telling the truth all the time.

    Well this time around the western media has gone no where near the truth and western politicians have no brains, which is about the same as having guts.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Oct 21, 2024 1:58 pm

    The US mass perception of its military adventures is terminal delusion. They won WWII, only left Vietnam because of the US media, etc. ad nauseam. Now their proxy is losing and
    they are making up cope-tard stories about how the Russians had no real contribution to the loss. These same clowns then expect to roll over Russia without any effort in any potential
    war with it. This appears to be the basis of the neocon chutzpah. They even announce near term war on China and expect to walk over the dead corpse of Russia any day now.

    The characterization "lunatics running the asylum" is scientifically accurate.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Oct 21, 2024 2:08 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:https://i.servimg.com/u/f83/20/39/25/54/img_6910.jpg

    The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low. The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.

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    franco
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    Post  franco Mon Oct 21, 2024 2:14 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:https://i.servimg.com/u/f83/20/39/25/54/img_6910.jpg

    The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low.   The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.  

    Those numbers are based on the accumulated daily MoD briefings. The casualties are based on front lines estimates and do not include those hit further back by rockets and aviation assets. Some of the other numbers are also misread... people Rolling Eyes dunno

    NOTE: Included the two quotes as they are relevant to my post.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Mon Oct 21, 2024 3:13 pm




    Balloons with GPS , dropping munitions ? Ok , they can accurately miss their targets ! lol1 Nukes for a terrorist comedian cosmopolitan jet setter NATO fanboy , engaged in civil war ? scratch No , not a good idea , he may drop the baby and retreat to his villa in Italy . N. Korean troops in support roles ? Good ! sunny Why not Iranian IRGC troops also ? Heard Russian Ships & advisers in Iran for the show against Israel . So why not ? The start of a beautiful relationship .😃

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Mon Oct 21, 2024 5:10 pm

    kvs wrote:
    The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low.   The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.  

    Only public obituaries are at 520k at the moment.
    MIA number is more than 100k.

    franco wrote:
    Those numbers are based on the accumulated daily MoD briefings.

    Russian official data have been pushed down since the very beginning.

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    Sujoy
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    Post  Sujoy Mon Oct 21, 2024 5:12 pm

    flamming_python wrote: Doesn't sound like it can be used for anything other than terrorizing civilian homes
    Which I guess is the point
    These drones can do some very rough aiming if they have weather data for the altitude at which it will fly.  Basically you launch and select a flight altitude based on winds and the drone can climb higher mid route to change course if you need.  I suspect it would need a  dense enough target map to make every flight a winner. Other than that they'll be used as decoys when IIR guided SAM is missing.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Oct 21, 2024 5:42 pm

    kvs wrote:The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low.   The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.  

    Not necessarily. I've seen it mentioned that when it comes to serious injuries that disable fighters or disqualify them from service, the Russian figure is a fraction for what it is for Russian KIA. While of course the total Russian wounded is much larger than Russian killed; the majority of those wounded recover and are fit for duty again.

    So I presume the same is true of the Ukrainian army. If they have 500k KIA, then the amount put of our action by their injuries for good might be around 50-100k, with maybe another 200-300k currently recovering but that will eventually be back in action. Without knowing the methodology used it's hard to judge how the figure was arrived at.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Oct 21, 2024 5:45 pm

    franco wrote:
    Those numbers are based on the accumulated daily MoD briefings. The casualties are based on front lines estimates and do not include those hit further back by rockets and aviation assets. Some of the other numbers are also misread... people Rolling Eyes dunno

    The MOD is lowballing Ukr losses.   If we take these numbers at face value then the Ukr KIA are somewhere between 250,000 and 300,000.   That would imply a ratio of around
    5:1 for Ukr vs Russian losses.   This is very generous.

    Thank you for editing your post before I had time to give you a temporary ban for posting a conversation... GarryB

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    franco
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    Post  franco Mon Oct 21, 2024 5:52 pm

    I believe Putin, sometime this year, said that the unrecoverable loss ratio for manpower was in excess of 5:1. Would assume unrecoverable would be dead and those too wounded to return to duty.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Oct 21, 2024 5:52 pm

    Sujoy wrote:These drones can do some very rough aiming if they have weather data for the altitude at which it will fly.  Basically you launch and select a flight altitude based on winds and the drone can climb higher mid route to change course if you need.  I suspect it would need a  dense enough target map to make every flight a winner. Other than that they'll be used as decoys when IIR guided SAM is missing.

    Which makes it useless for engaging enemy forces; rough aiming + low payload. And you will have to pick stationary targets too, as the drone will be too slow to keep up with anything else. So the obvious use is against towns or cities.

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    Arrow


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    Post  Arrow Mon Oct 21, 2024 6:14 pm

    Geranium
    https://vk.com/video-123538639_456312158
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Oct 21, 2024 7:16 pm

    https://t.me/Slavyangrad/111221
    🇷🇺🇰🇵 The DPRK flag is hoisted on a spoil heap near the recently liberated Tsukurino on the Pokrovsky Front.

    Our fighters caused hysteria of the enemy with their actions.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61 - Page 36 Photo_14

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    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Oct 21, 2024 8:25 pm

    I like how Russia trolls everyone

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    Big_Gazza
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    Post  Big_Gazza Mon Oct 21, 2024 10:40 pm

    The true reason why the Nano-Fuhrer is always so grumpy... Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61 - Page 36 Img_2014

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    Post  Big_Gazza Tue Oct 22, 2024 12:44 am

    Pedal to the metal! Squeeze their bollocks until they pop like blisters... russia

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61 - Page 36 21oct210

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    Post  Big_Gazza Tue Oct 22, 2024 12:58 am

    They certainly seem very keen on severing that road to the south... Do they intend this to be the point where they cross the Oskol in force? Cross here and drive north up the road on the west bank into Kupyansk (its likely to not be fortified as Ukie earthworks will be to the east)? That might explain why the Kiev regime is starting to pull people from Kupyansk, they sense blood in the wind and recognise that it is theirs... Razz Razz Razz russia

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61 - Page 36 21oct211

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    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Tue Oct 22, 2024 1:22 am

    Big_Gazza wrote:The true reason why the Nano-Fuhrer is always so grumpy...    Razz  Razz  Razz  Razz  Razz  Razz  Razz

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61 - Page 36 Img_2014
    He ought not to feel bad. Putin got filtered that way too. Razz

    Based horse archer phenotype. Razz

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Oct 22, 2024 2:39 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    kvs wrote:The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low.   The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.  

    Not necessarily. I've seen it mentioned that when it comes to serious injuries that disable fighters or disqualify them from service, the Russian figure is a fraction for what it is for Russian KIA. While of course the total Russian wounded is much larger than Russian killed; the majority of those wounded recover and are fit for duty again.

    So I presume the same is true of the Ukrainian army. If they have 500k KIA, then the amount put of our action by their injuries for good might be around 50-100k, with maybe another 200-300k currently recovering but that will eventually be back in action. Without knowing the methodology used it's hard to judge how the figure was arrived at.

    Yeah the Russian side based on different sources has anywhere from 60-80K KIA and adding LDNR you get to 110-120k KIA based on mediazona and even Putin and the MOD admissions of 1 to 5 RU to UKR losses, but it’s a bit misleading because they aren’t including irrecoverable Ukrainian losses which really pushes it to 1 to 10

    Russia has superior battlefield medicine, medevac, helicopters that can get soldiers to hospitals quickly and better logistics - casevac ability with overall more vehicles and generally more competence than Ukraine by fact of resources and economy

    This means they stick to the conventional wisdom of 1 KIA for 3 WIA - taking our BBC numbers above we extrapolate to 360k WIA- of this number it’s generally accepted that 25-30% are irrecoverable losses , so 80-100k is a figure in line with both RU+LDNR heavy wounded , the difference is sanitary losses , so 260k is also a number in line with figures analysts were using a couple of months ago - this number is the number of sanitary losses or light injuries by Soviet definition - and this figure is a bit tricky as it could be a third of the true number , based on the fact that you could double or even triple count light injuries and these guys usually get put back into service

    Now for Ukraine - using the MOD and Putins numbers from few months ago , are at 600k KIA , with 1.8 million wounded, and that number being 50/50 sanitary to irrecoverable, making Ukraines total losses of dead and maimed 1.5 million and the difference being those who lived to tell the tale and don’t get rotated out and probably end up in the KIA and irrecoverable number only a few weeks or months later

    So Russian total losses of KIA and irrecoverable are 120k + 80 k for 200k , and Ukrainian are at about 1.5 million , that gives a respectable 1 to 7.5 RU to Ukrop losses

    And that fits in with the US numbers of 400-500k Russian losses (they use sanitary losses as the baseline for their estimates)

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    Post  ucmvulcan Tue Oct 22, 2024 2:39 am

    nomadski wrote:


    Balloons with GPS , dropping munitions ? Ok , they can accurately miss their targets ! lol1 Nukes for a terrorist comedian cosmopolitan jet setter NATO fanboy , engaged in civil war ? scratch No , not a good idea , he may drop the baby and retreat to his villa in Italy . N. Korean troops in support roles ? Good ! sunny Why not Iranian IRGC troops also ? Heard Russian Ships & advisers in Iran for the show against Israel . So why not ? The start of a beautiful relationship .😃

    Awwww, ain't that cute, the Ukronazis have gotten fugo bombs. Wonder if the Japanese helped them build them. I hope the Russians help Kim Jong Un perfect his garbage balloons.

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    Post  ucmvulcan Tue Oct 22, 2024 3:35 am

    A live look at the mighty Ukrainian Lolwaffe

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTAuT6ZMZXM

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