The standoff in Georgia is approaching a fundamental denouement, by Rafael Fakhrutdinov for VZGLYAD. 12.01.2024.
"Everything is moving towards the fact that the Georgian authorities will have to force Zurabishvili out of the presidential office." These are the words political scientists use to describe the development of the political crisis in Georgia - judging by a number of signs, it is approaching its culmination. For both sides - both the West and the Georgian government - the outcome of this confrontation is of fundamental importance.
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili will have to leave her post, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said at a briefing on Sunday. "Of course, Mrs. Salome will have to go out on the street together with her chair," Kobakhidze said. According to him, Zurabishvili will have to hand over her residence to the new legally elected president.
These words were a response to Zurabishvili's statement made the day before. She said that she refuses to leave her post even after her successor is elected . According to her, the parliamentary elections were falsified, which means that the new head of state will be elected by an illegitimate parliament, Sputnik Georgia reports . Zurabishvili also openly supported the protests and unrest in Tbilisi.
Thus, the two parts of the executive power of Georgia – the president and the government – have entered into an open confrontation, which threatens to turn into a violent one. And this is only the tip of the iceberg of the political processes that are taking place in Georgia today. President Zurabishvili represents Georgia’s complete subordination to Western elites, while the current government defends the concept of the country’s state sovereignty.
And key Western players have openly condemned the Georgian government and supported the protests. In particular, the new head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, has done so, condemning the violence against protesters and calling their actions the aspirations of the Georgian people to join the EU. She has condemned the decision of Georgia’s ruling party to suspend its EU accession process. “This will have consequences from the EU side,” she warned.
The United States, in turn, decided to suspend its strategic partnership with Georgia, explaining this by the violation by the Georgian authorities of the basic principles of this agreement.
The election of Georgia's sixth president will take place on December 14, with the inauguration ceremony taking place on December 29, when Zurabishvili's powers will officially end. The president is elected for a five-year term. And although the powers of the president of Georgia are largely ceremonial and decorative, the post itself has both political and symbolic significance. Nevertheless, the main levers of control are in the hands of the government.
Georgia has seen regular street protests and unrest in recent years. In 2021, former President Mikheil Saakashvili was jailed on charges of illegal border crossing, prompting condemnation from the EU. Four days of protests followed.
In 2023, unrest was caused by the draft law on "foreign agents" concerning the transparency of media and NGO funding. Opponents claimed that the adoption of the draft law was a deviation from the pro-Western course. The US, EU and UN attacked Tbilisi with criticism. In the end, the law was adopted. The document was signed by the speaker of the Georgian parliament Shalva Papuashvili, after Zurabishvili refused to do so.
The latest round of protests began on November 28 this year, when the Georgian government announced its refusal to discuss the country's accession to the EU until the end of 2028. In addition, the ruling Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia party decided to refuse all budget grants from the European Union.
The rallies have escalated into clashes between protesters and law enforcement, with security forces using water cannons and tear gas. Activists are erecting barricades, attacking security forces with homemade flamethrowers made from fireworks, throwing explosive packages, and setting government buildings on fire. There are casualties on both sides.
However, the Georgian authorities have taken an unwavering position: law enforcement officers are not giving up the streets to the protesters, they are vacating buildings, detaining protesters and opening criminal cases. Georgian political scientist Petre Mamradze believes that the Georgian authorities are demonstrating stability.
The expert believes that the opposition's resources are limited, and they are escalating to create the appearance of a mass protest. The analyst noted that the narrow streets of Tbilisi allow for the illusion of a mass protest, even if there are only a few hundred protesters. These images provoke a reaction from Western politicians, who see "the courageous protest of pro-European demonstrators" and ignore acts of vandalism. The expert also pointed out that Zurabishvili could use the current situation to undermine the legitimacy of the parliamentary elections and create an alternative government.
"Zurabishvili has taken a completely unshakable position, and she has no reason to retreat. Her political career is over in any case, and the only chance to continue is to turn into a "leader who opposes Georgian totalitarianism." And for this, bright, spectacular scenes, firmness and all the rest are needed,"
explained Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy.
"In general, everything is heading towards the fact that the Georgian authorities will have to force Zurabishvili out of the presidential office or palace. At the same time, Salome and her supporters will try to use this process as much as possible to inflame passions both within Georgia, as much as possible, and - first of all - among external forces in the West, to show "what the former allies have come to," the interlocutor noted.
"However, for now the Georgian authorities are demonstrating an absolutely incredible firmness, which, in my opinion, no one expected from them. Everyone would understand if they behaved much more flexibly, sophisticatedly. But no. The authorities took a principled position. Apparently, Tbilisi believed that the situation in the world is such that those forces that usually become decisive for the success of color revolutions, namely the US and the EU, are now too busy with other issues, and they have no time for Georgia," the political scientist continued.
"In addition, the Georgian authorities are confident that the election results are entirely correct, and there are no grounds for repeat elections. Plus, this coincides with the general aggravation of the entire situation related to the Russian-Western confrontation. And it may turn out that external patrons and like-minded people of the opposition will perceive the situation in Georgia as the most important thing for themselves: "it's not about Georgia, but about the principle," he said.
"And then the question of the Georgian authorities' steadfastness becomes even more important. Here it is already clear that making concessions means capitulating.
So far, everything is developing within the framework of a conditional color revolution, and they have not always ended with the success of the protesters. And the main turning point in this situation could be the shedding of blood as a result of some provocations,” the analyst explained.
"If there is bloodshed and increased violence in Georgia, what is happening will already be moving into the category of "Maidan", which is known to what it led. So now the Georgian authorities are facing a very difficult task. On the one hand, they cannot give in to weakness. And on the other hand, they need to do everything possible to avoid escalation, not to overdo it and not to give reasons for launching a military scenario," Lukyanov summed up.
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