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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #58

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Wed Jul 10, 2024 7:14 am

    So this no fly zone they want over Lvov... do you think that ties into their plans to build factories for making all sorts of things in the Ukraine they keep talking about... they would need to establish a no fly zone before they could start making german tanks and artillery shells etc etc etc... but of course if missiles start getting launched form Polish territory to shoot down Russian missiles over the Ukraine, then that makes such airdefence batteries in Poland fair game for the Russians to hit with missiles that Poland can't shoot down.

    Maybe this is all a ruse to get Russia to deliver some advanced missiles to HATO countries in the hopes they can get some intact models if they are faulty...

    Of course launching missiles at a HATO country is not the same as launching missiles at the Ukraine... Russia does not want to kill everyone in the Ukraine... (As opposed to Kiev who wants to kill everyone in Crimea because they are all obviously the enemy...)

    How does Russia feel about the people of Poland so keen to send weapons and ammo and money to Kiev to kill Russians...

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Wed Jul 10, 2024 7:52 am

    Poland owns one battery of Patriots at the moment, in PAC3 MSE configuration.
    It has a maximum range of slightly over 100 km against aerodynamic, high/slow flying targets.
    Can we move on, as there is nothing to discuss other than muscle flexing that ended up with a fart?

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    Walther von Oldenburg
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Wed Jul 10, 2024 8:15 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    mnztr wrote:Some are saying an AD missile could not cause so much damage I say bullshit. The AIM120 has a 20KG frag charge which would have broken every window and mowed down anyone with a direct path to the missile or exposed to a window. The building structure itself was not so badly damaged except close to the missile.

    I don't know about AD missiles, but I do know about missiles such as the Kh-101s implicated in the Russian strikes against Kiev, each carrying a 400kg HE warhead.

    That Hospital would be gone. G-o-n-e. The whole thing. Would just be a wreck or rubble in its place. See the FAB-500 gliding bombs for reference.

    Same for the Kalibr, also carries the same size warhead.
    Wiki lists AIM-120 warhead as having a 20 kg payload so it was very possibly a ground launched AMRAAM.

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    Arrow


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    Post  Arrow Wed Jul 10, 2024 8:25 am

    Poland owns one battery of Patriots at the moment, in PAC3 MSE configuration. It has a maximum range of slightly over 100 km against aerodynamic, high/slow flying targets. wrote:

    Perhaps they think they will enter Ukrainian airspace with their F-16s and intercept cruise missiles directly over Ukraine? Laughing

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    ahmedfire
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    Post  ahmedfire Wed Jul 10, 2024 8:27 am

    Western values  Suspect

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #58 - Page 39 Gseqks10

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #58 - Page 39 Gseacq10

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Wed Jul 10, 2024 8:27 am

    It might be the case, as Russkie does not own weaponry ranged long enough to deal with airplanes flying in the western part of Ukraine. Still, there will be nothing that can deal with Ch-22/32, Iskander or Oniks. Russkie will just change the sort of weapon used.

    ahmedfire wrote:Western values  Suspect

    There are none, and this war has proven it.
    Just a funny fact.
    My friend in Moscow can watch Polish TV on his cable TV at any moment.
    I can't watch Russian TV at any source for 2+ years, and the number of Russian outlets that are being blocked is increasing.
    Even VPN ceased to work in some cases, proving that someone really put a lot of effort into cutting the European audience from an alternative information flood.
    So the rhetorical question is, who is deliberately lying to its population then?

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    Arrow


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    Post  Arrow Wed Jul 10, 2024 8:45 am

    might be the case, as Russkie does not own weaponry ranged long enough to deal with airplanes flying in the western part of Ukraine. Still, there will be nothing that can deal with Ch-22/32, Iskander or Oniks. Russkie will just change the sort of weapon used. wrote:

    I think even the Ch-101 will be difficult for them to intercept. They have to detect them first, but this is a missile that flies very low and has a reduced RCS.
    The only interesting thing is that they are not afraid because it is almost an official entry into the war.

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    Arrow


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    Post  Arrow Wed Jul 10, 2024 8:48 am

    the last attack on Kiev showed the complete defeat of the Ukrainian and Western AD. Patriot didn't intercept anything. Kiev is currently the best protected city in Europe, apart from Moscow.The attack itself was very minor. They didn't even have to saturate the AD defense. Several PAC-3/2 batteries were concentrated near Kiev.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:08 am

    Arrow wrote:I think even the Ch-101 will be difficult for them to intercept. They have to detect them first, but this is a missile that flies very low and has a reduced RCS.
    The only interesting thing is that they are not afraid because it is almost an official entry into the war.

    It is an official entry into the war, it would amount to a direct intervention in the war, providing a no-fly zone for one of the sides in an armed conflict is exactly that.
    And it would be an act of war against Russia accordingly.

    But it's not the first time we hear something like that, and most of the talking has been done by Zelensky this time, yet again, so I'm skeptical that Poland decides to finally walk the walk. Don't bet on it before a US decision to intervene with its own forces. And we are still some months away from that. I think.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:10 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Arrow


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    Post  Arrow Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:10 am

    It is an official entry into the war, it would amount to a direct intervention in the war, providing a no-fly zone for one of the sides in an armed conflict is exactly that. And it would be an act of war against Russia accordingly. wrote:

    The question is whether Russia will react to this? Or not, and it will simply continue to attack targets in Western Ukraine, regardless of Polish aviation.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:12 am

    Arrow wrote:

    The question is whether Russia will react to this? Or not, and it will simply continue to attack targets in Western Ukraine, regardless of Polish aviation.

    It will have to. Because what would the next move from Poland and NATO be?

    If Poland decides to shoot down Russian missiles with its own air defence systems then those air defence systems would have to be destroyed; they are protecting enemy assets such as airbases and radars and ammo depots that are in turn being used to strike Russian targets.

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    Post  Arrow Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:16 am

    If Poland decides to shoot down Russian missiles with its own air defence systems then those air defence systems would have to be destroyed; they are protecting enemy assets such as airbases and radars and ammo depots that are in turn being used to strike Russian targets. wrote:

    That is, in total, direct attacks on the PAC-3 system and the airports where F16 are stationed in Poland. It's getting very dangerous in Europe in general.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:18 am

    Arrow wrote:

    That is, in total, direct attacks on the PAC-3 system and the airports where F16 are stationed in Poland.  It's getting very dangerous in Europe in general.

    Well, no-one can predict the hesitation of the Russian leadership and it's constant desire to show 'good will' towards NATO.

    So who knows, perhaps they will try to initially ignore it if it happens. But they won't be able to for long.

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    Post  ALAMO Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:27 am

    Poland's sole Patriot is located near Warsaw.
    What is covering the eastern flank and Rzeszow airport, are German and Murican ones.
    As I said, it is all trash talk at the moment.
    Poland faces huge energy inflation, with electricity bills skyrocketing since July 1st.
    MWh price is higher than in Germany and the UK, while the income is still half of it.
    De facto it is the highest energy price all over Europe other than Italy.
    People are starting to boil, so they need something to cover it up.
    Fear is the best way to delude people, so this is what they are doing.

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    Post  Arrow Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:30 am

    Meanwhile, the West will donate another four Patriot batteries to Ukraine, and another five batteries by the end of the year. Of course, it won't change anything anyway. And the Patriot systems themselves will be consistently eliminated. By the way, they still have a lot of these Patriots in the West.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:39 am

    A last point from me on the hospital. The photos of the immediate aftermath showed very large numbers of uniformed men hard at work. Strangely, very quickly, very few in civvies and NO children.

    Similar to that pizza restaurant/hotel hit a few months ago. Both had all the hallmarks of military use. 

    It is hard to believe that a child's hospital would take priority over military use, as hospital or barracks, in Ukraine.

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    Post  Kiko Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:04 am

    WSJ: Russia Will Become Even Better at Intercepting Missiles with Electronic Warfare, by Dmitry Zubarev for VZGLYAD. 07.10.2024.

    Russian forces are gradually adapting electronic warfare (EW) systems to intercept precision-guided munitions and will be able to intercept ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles more often in the future, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing Ukrainian intelligence officials and Pentagon officials.

    As WSJ writes , Russian troops have learned to suppress GPS-guided missiles, including Excalibur and HIMARS. At the same time, Ukraine is currently using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian forces, but the newspaper's sources emphasize that the Russian side is adapting electronic warfare systems to intercept these targets as well, RIA Novosti reports.

    According to the publication, Western military doctrine has been effective in regional conflicts in the Middle East, but may not work in the fight against a major adversary.

    "We must have made mistakes because for the last 20 years we have been launching precision-guided munitions at people who could do nothing about it. Now we are doing it against a peer, and Russia and China have that capability," the newspaper quotes General Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, as saying.

    Earlier, the commander of the air defense forces, Andrei Semenov , stated that the American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems delivered to Ukraine failed to fulfill their task during a special military operation.

    https://vz.ru/news/2024/7/10/1276945.html

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:45 am

    GarryB wrote:So this no fly zone they want over Lvov... do you think that ties into their plans to build factories for making all sorts of things in the Ukraine they keep talking about... they would need to establish a no fly zone before they could start making german tanks and artillery shells etc etc etc...

    What's the point of building factories in Ukria which can be taken out easily by Russia? There is no such thing as a NATzO ABM system that can take
    out enough Russian missiles to stop these factories being deleted. Nothing is stopping transport of military hardware into Ukria through the Polish border
    which has been going on since before 2022.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:48 am

    Kiko wrote:

    According to the publication, Western military doctrine has been effective in regional conflicts in the Middle East, but may not work in the fight against a major adversary.


    The use of the word "may" is utterly delusional. The proper word to use is will.

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    Post  kvs Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:50 am

    ALAMO wrote:
    Poland faces huge energy inflation, with electricity bills skyrocketing since July 1st.
    MWh price is higher than in Germany and the UK, while the income is still half of it.
    De facto it is the highest energy price all over Europe other than Italy.

    Perfect time to send electricity to Ukria for free.

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    Post  ALAMO Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:51 am

    That is why bills are high.

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    Post  Arrow Wed Jul 10, 2024 12:31 pm

    Calibers fly very low over the Caspian Sea. The fishermen are happy Very Happy


    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/115884

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    The-thing-next-door
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    Post  The-thing-next-door Wed Jul 10, 2024 12:44 pm

    I wonder, if the pollack enters into this conflict, will Russia use it as an excuse to finally wipe it of the face of the earth?

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    Post  franco Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:22 pm

    Russian MoD reporting 2100 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours.

    https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12519912@egNews

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    Post  lancelot Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:49 pm

    ALAMO wrote:It might be the case, as Russkie does not own weaponry ranged long enough to deal with airplanes flying in the western part of Ukraine.
    If those Russian aircraft operate from within Belarus they would have more than enough range.

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