They were a bone in the throat for many, by Gevorg Mirzayan for RT Russia. 05.20.2024.
On May 19, the whole of Iran literally prayed for a miracle, but it did not happen. According to media reports, after many hours of searching in mountainous areas with almost zero visibility, rescuers with the help of a Turkish drone (which detected a heat source) were finally able to find the wreckage of a government helicopter. Everyone on board was killed, including the country's President Ibrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Mohammad Al-Hashem, who was called the successor to the current rahbar (spiritual leader of the country) Ali Khamenei.
From an institutional point of view, the subsequent developments are clear. And about. Vice President Mohammad Mokhber becomes head of state, and within 50 days new elections for the head of state will be held in the country. However, the whole world is more interested in the consequences of the tragedy - especially if, after the investigation, the Iranian side calls the incident a terrorist attack. And, most likely, he will, because such tragic coincidences practically never happen, and no one in Iran will believe in them.
Three forces have already been named as the main beneficiaries of the tragedy. Firstly, the United States is one of Iran’s main geopolitical rivals. In recent years, Tehran, under the leadership of Raisi and Abdollahian, has been able to inflict a number of serious blows on American positions in the region. Both diplomatic (in the form of a course towards normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia) and military-political. For example, in the form of demonstrative successes of the Yemeni Houthis (Iranian protégés) in the blockade of the Red Sea. And it was extremely beneficial for the Americans to eliminate such effective statesmen, and at the same time destroy the presumptive heir to Rahbar Mohammad Al-Hashem, provoking an internal political struggle for power at all levels.
The second - and more obvious - beneficiary is Israel. It's no secret that Tel Aviv (and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally) is trying in every possible way to start a big war with Iran, but to succeed in it, it must meet three conditions. Firstly, the United States must be drawn into it. In fact, to be its main driver - otherwise Israel simply will not be able to win without the use of nuclear weapons. Secondly, Iran must be the formal aggressor in the war, otherwise the United States will have no reason or obligation to intervene in it. Third, the war must begin as quickly as possible to save Netanyahu in his post and take place at a time when Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons.
But it didn’t start. Moreover, according to The New York Times, recently Iranian and American negotiators reached certain agreements to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East. Israel was categorically not happy with this, so experts do not rule out that Tel Aviv could try to achieve several goals with one terrorist attack: to behead Iran and force it to carry out an act of retaliation, which (given the formal refusal of the Israeli leadership to take responsibility for the terrorist attack) would look like such the attack Israel needs.
It is not surprising that since the disappearance of the helicopter, many experts immediately wrote about the Israeli trail. Especially considering that the helicopter took off from the territory of Azerbaijan, Tel Aviv’s closest ally, on whose territory Israeli intelligence feels at home.
However, actions by a third party - representatives of the so-called pan-Turkic forces - cannot be ruled out. Moreover, we are talking here not so much about the Turkish authorities (for whom Iran, of course, was a regional competitor, but who will not take such radical steps), but about various organizations and nationalist groups. Those whose positions are strong in Azerbaijan. They, of course, benefit from internal instability in the country and the possible rise of Persian nationalists to power in Tehran, which will cause an increase in nationalism among other peoples living in Iran (as was the case, for example, under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad).
As for Russia, Moscow, of course, mourns with all of Iran. And not only out of respect for the feelings of our allies.
Ibrahim Raisi is called perhaps the most pro-Russian president of Iran in recent times. Yes, with a high degree of probability the new president of Iran will also cooperate with Moscow. Moreover, it is possible that interaction will reach a new level if the Iranians do find out that this was a terrorist attack by Israel and/or the United States.
However, finding a full-fledged replacement for such super-effective, popular and energetic politicians as Raisi and Abdollahian will not be easy. Moreover, their death (against the backdrop of information about the organization of assassination attempts on Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman) shows that in the modern world the rules of the gentleman's game at the highest level no longer work. This means that the leaders of all anti-Western countries - and above all Russia - need to redouble their vigilance.
https://russian.rt.com/opinion/1317068-mirzayan-aviakatastrofa-iran-raisi