2024 Iran–Israel conflict

nomadski wrote:
The danger point has passed . Ardours have cooled . There won't be any attack on Israel by Iran now . Not even a symbolic response . Best Iran can do is indirect help for now . The Shia axis , is doing enough . That is why Iran inviting OIC meeting , hoping for a unified " Islamic , " response . Both Shia and Sunni . But no chance for this .

Supposing

Putin is overly cautious. But Iran and China are worse.

So Israel will continue to assassinate high level Iranian figures.

What I don't get is why Iran is pussing out so much. A US air campaign won't amount to much. Iran has a huge numerical advantage as far as boots on the ground.

The weapons embargo on Iran expired long ago. Israel crosses some more red lines and then Iran suddenly has some "oh shit" heavy lift flights coming from Russia. Why the **** don't they have everything they could possibly need from Russia already?

What makes these mullahs tick , I'll never know.

Backman wrote:

nomadski wrote:
The danger point has passed . Ardours have cooled . There won't be any attack on Israel by Iran now . Not even a symbolic response . Best Iran can do is indirect help for now . The Shia axis , is doing enough . That is why Iran inviting OIC meeting , hoping for a unified " Islamic , " response . Both Shia and Sunni . But no chance for this .

Supposing

Putin is overly cautious. But Iran and China are worse.

So Israel will continue to assassinate high level Iranian figures.

What I don't get is why Iran is pussing out so much. A US air campaign won't amount to much. Iran has a huge numerical advantage as far as boots on the ground.

We should not underestimate the damage the yanks and co can inflict . A single missile into nuclear reactor , or oil well head  is catastrophic for Iran . And Iran can not retaliate in kind to the yanks . They will pull back their forces , out of range , and strike from long distance . They will repair the damage to oil well heads , as they did previously . Iran will not rebuild so easily , finances susceptible . Iran does not have a nuclear deterrent either . A heavy handed attack , even in Israel , can be retaliated by nuclear weapons .

Unless Iran gets a credible minimum nuclear deterrence against the yanks and Israelis , and they are able to send large expeditionary land forces into the region , liberating territory from yank bases and liberating the Palestinian lands , then Iran is limited in it's response . Yemen and resistance forces can do more , because they are not fixed targets and have few targets above ground that can be hit . They are also much more homogenous as a group , with unity of purpose . Iran is in political instability , ethnic instability also . Many people have more immediate daily problems that they seek to address .

Under these conditions , Iran can not do much more . But it can keep on supporting the frontline states . It can mirror the actions of the Zionists , something it has not done and has organisational difficulty in arranging at times . Until a day arrived , when there is more collective action by the world , to address the Palestinian plight or Iran becomes stronger , until then what we see is what we get .....mostly !

Defences will be on high alert, now is a bad time to attack for effect... they need out of the blue surprise attacks properly planned and targeted... wait 6 months and then kill some high up Israelis.

There is no rush and no hurry, they have plenty of time for this.

Iranians can not step on the escalation ladder , same as the Israeli / Americans . They don't have nukes and only a small air force . Missiles can only do so much , useful in attack , but useless in defence . Unless Iranians get a nuclear deterrent with ICBM , or blue water navy with nuke weapons , then it is vulnerable to pre-emptive nuclear strike . The Israelis have warned about this , also that they will attack with nuclear weapons , Iranian nuclear sites . The Americans also have brought a nuclear submarine to the region , no doubt this carries nuclear tipped cruise missiles ! I have no doubt that the Israelis / Americans will fire nuclear weapons into Iran , if they could .

A small punitive retaliation by Iran , sends a weak message . It is worse than not retaliating at all . It will not act as deterrent , nor teach a lesson or make Israelis regret . It still gives Americans opportunity to intervene ! A larger attack , sends a strong message . It is worse than sending a weak message or not retaliating at all . It will not act as deterrent or reach a lesson or make regret . It will push Americans to intervene .

Unless Iran and axis , are ready to defeat the Israelis completely , by a full scale war , using large land Army . And they have nukes / ICBM as deterrent against WMD attack by the Zionists / Yanks , then not attacking overtly , is better than a weak attack or strong attack . As GarryB said , a tit for tat , for now is best . Israelis may carry out further attacks , and at that time a decision has to be made .

nomadski wrote:
Iranians can not step on the escalation ladder , same as the Israeli / Americans . They don't have nukes and only a small air force . Missiles can only do so much , useful in attack , but useless in defence . Unless Iranians get a nuclear deterrent with ICBM , or blue water navy with nuke weapons , then it is vulnerable to pre-emptive nuclear strike .

Even conventional weapons can do enormous damage. IMO Iran's best deterrent is its ability to disrupt vital shipping in the Persian gulf. If little Yemen can do what it did in the Red Sea imagine what Iran could do, and in a more vital area.
That said, the sad reality is, in view of its weakness relative to Israel and its toadies including the US, Iran's best option may be to do nothing in the military field--at least nothing overt--and try to get concessions from various nations. Let the US and its allies sweat it out a bit longer, then offer to desist if they agree to say, grant sanctions waivers to China, Pakistan and India for two years or so. Even something less than that would be better than giving zionists a pretext to maximize their destruction. I think Pezeshkian would agree and is acting as a restraining influence.

Iran is doing everything right by rapidly arming up with Russia's assistance for the next episode of escalation that will inevitably unfold.

And it's a far more significant 'response' than any shenanigance with drones and missiles against Israeli territory like last time.

Iran is going to respond. He will do it in a day or several, but he will respond.

NEW: Former Iranian diplomat Amir al-Mousavi told Al-Mayadeen that Iran has been threatened with a nuclear strike.

Mousavi stressed that Iran has made it clear any nuclear attack will be met with a proportional response.

He further noted that those issuing the threats received even stronger replies.

He also urged people to ignore baseless claims of alleged Iranian "cowardice" circulating on social media.

Mousavi concluded by asserting that Iran, together with its allies, is fully prepared to confront the Zionist entity with full force.


https://t.me/FotrosResistance/7716

Isos wrote:Last attack deplated israeli and US stocks of missiles... it was quite good and a big message.

It destroyed nothing and the message fell on dead ears

Although I will say that the assassination of the Hamas head on Iranian territory is not the same as an Israeli attack on Iran. Which it has not yet dared to do. But that may only be a matter of time. Iran would be foolish not to prepare itself for that scenario. No more messages are going to work, so don't waste time with them or some honor-bound 'responses'

Former UN weapons inspector and famous military analyst Scott Ritter talks about the inevitable retaliation strikes from Iran and Hezbollah

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/9315

ResistanceTrench mirror, [7/9/2024 04:27]
General Salami: We have targeted 12 Israeli ships

They sent a message that said they would halt the naval battles.

Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in meeting with Iranian President Pezeshkian:

In the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, they targeted 14 of our ships to prevent us from exporting our oil. The Zionist regime carried out this action in a very mysterious and ambiguous manner, and we managed to target 12 of their ships severely. After we targeted the fifth ship, they raised their hands and said they would stop the naval battles.

We were in a severe crisis; General Soleimani had been assassinated, a Ukrainian plane had crashed in Tehran, COVID-19 was rampant, and economic sanctions were being imposed at their maximum level, all while they tried to isolate us completely.

As the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, we needed to carry out a deterrent operation and create a barrier. In naval battles, we secured shipping lines, broke the sanctions in practice, managed the COVID-19 situation, developed vaccines, and made all resources available for treatment.

None of the 380 major national projects currently underway have slowed down; we did not allow sanctions to hinder the country's development.

Externally, we were also containing the phenomenon of Takfirism (ISIS) from outside of our country; if terrorism had spread further, Iran would have been its central target. We succeeded in closing off all the routes that the enemy had opened. Today, the safest shipping lanes belong to vessels flying the Iranian flag.

@ResistanceTrench

ResistanceTrench mirror, [7/9/2024 04:41]
Commander of the IRGC's Account of Naval Battles Between Iran and Israel

Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of the IRGC:

"14 of our ships were attacked to prevent our oil exports. Initially, we did not realize who was behind these actions because they were carried out very covertly. Eventually, we understood that the Zionist regime was responsible. 12 of their ships were destroyed, and when we hit the 5th ship, they raised their hands in surrender and said they would stop the naval battles."

"The British seized our ship in Gibraltar, and in response, we captured the Stena Impero, which led to their surrender. We also took two of their ships while they seized two of ours in greece, but ultimately, they capitulated."

"When two of our oil tankers were en route to Venezuela, the Americans threatened to seize them. I, along with General Tangsiri, simulated the operation to capture an American oil tanker and announced it over the radio. When the Americans saw this, our tankers safely reached their destination."

Source: (tn.ai/3154138) 

@ResistanceTrench

https://youtu.be/Sg1MGgtm95s

Iranian retaliation/revenge will be served cold, i.e. when they'll be ready & Israel is not so ready.