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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49

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    Dr.Snufflebug


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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:41 pm

    Russia has struck "decision making centers" multiple times.

    Each time they turned into kitten orphanages in an instant, of course, but still.

    What Russia hasn't done at all to my knowledge are symbolical strikes. For example every single administrative building, HQ or government "palace" in Kiev remain untouched. Hell, in most other cities too.

    So I wouldn't hold my breath if that's what you expect as retaliation.

    The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well. They've had dozens of opportunities to whack him, but have refrained from doing so. The same "courtesy" hasn't been reciprocated by UA, as they conduct all manners of terrorist attacks on all kinds of people, whether important or not, and wouldn't hesitate for a second to try to kill Putin or any other high ranking Russian official if an opportunity shows up.

    The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.


    Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:46 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  mnztr Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:43 pm

    if the VKS cannot contain a small fleet of ancient SU-24's then I really question their ability to protect Russia TBH.

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:50 pm

    Well, they could declare war, mobilize a million people and tacnuke anything even remotely resembling an airfield in Ukraine.

    Had they been the U.S. they would at the very least have leveled Kiev by now with conventional weaponry.

    To date, they have attacked the airfields countless times, but these Soviet planes are rugged as hell, and each time an attack is on its way they take off to stay clear. Then they can land almost anywhere, not to mention that airfields are everywhere too.

    In short, to deal with the menace it's either nukes or all-in invasion with all available assets, loads of fighters included. That would almost certainly lead to significant losses to AD though. They should have done that immediately, when UA legacy AD was on its last breath, but the schizophrenic nature of the operation at first kinda messed that up, with all the "goodwill gestures" etc.


    Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:00 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    Post  kvs Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:56 pm

    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Well, they could declare war, mobilize a million people and tacnuke anything even remotely resembling an airfield in Ukraine.

    Had they been the U.S. they would at the very least have leveled Kiev by now with conventional weaponry.

    Russia needs to take care of the Ukr baby after this is all done. So why would it level cities? To rebuild them later? The US
    is a very bad example. It has no intention of rebuilding anything in Iraq just as it had no intention of rebuilding anything in Vietnam.

    See the difference.

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    Post  lyle6 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:04 pm

    Russian redlines are useless.

    Pay no attention to all those NATO officers checking out by way of plane crashes. Razz

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    Dr.Snufflebug


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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:05 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Well, they could declare war, mobilize a million people and tacnuke anything even remotely resembling an airfield in Ukraine.

    Had they been the U.S. they would at the very least have leveled Kiev by now with conventional weaponry.

    Russia needs to take care of the Ukr baby after this is all done.   So why would it level cities?   To rebuild them later?   The US
    is a very bad example.   It has no intention of rebuilding anything in Iraq just as it had no intention of rebuilding anything in Vietnam.

    See the difference.


    Yes, I am aware. Situation's a bit different when it's about one of the four historical Russian capitals and not something on the other side of the planet you have zero relation to.
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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:23 pm

    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.

    My main frustration is being reminded that some people here and on whatever Telegram, whatever circles, should learn to control their emotions better. Because hearing the same screeching is tiring. And I can assure you the professionals who are doing the fighting or leading it practice self-control very well. Because that's what's necessary to win a war. Learn from them.

    Well, they could declare war, mobilize a million people and tacnuke anything even remotely resembling an airfield in Ukraine.

    That sounds counterproductive

    Had they been the U.S. they would at the very least have leveled Kiev by now with conventional weaponry.

    So you kill a whole bunch of civilians, but would that stop such attacks?
    Would it deter any of the Ukronazi scum? They care less about civilian dead on any side. They ordered an evacuation and then launched a rocket at a Kramatorsk train station and killed 50 men, women and children just to have another atrocity they can pin on Russia. That's in the Donbass, but it's not like they spare the 'proper' Ukrainians. They ruthlessly conscript them young and old and send them out with barely any training to divert Russian shells away from the professionals and mercenaries, and in Bucha they fired artillery upon a town buzzing with civilian activity, and then executed a whole bunch of people that accepted humanitarian supplies from the Russian military just to have another mass murder they could pin on Russia.

    To date, they have attacked the airfields countless times, but these Soviet planes are rugged as hell, and each time an attack is on its way they take off to stay clear. Then they can land almost anywhere, not to mention that airfields are everywhere too.

    They've husbanded them and hid them and used them sparingly to conduct attacks of potential strategic importance.

    Similarly to how they've preserved the HIMARS, and the Tochkas before them. What would you have Russia do, carpet bomb every bit of paved concrete and every metal structure that looks like it could be a hanger or store fuel or ammo?

    Which is a very wise strategy on their part I should add. But these still add up to nothing more than pinprick attacks, and many Su-24s have been downed so far. They simply have some left, or are receiving them from somewhere.

    In short, to deal with the menace it's either nukes or all-in invasion with all available assets, loads of fighters included. That would almost certainly lead to significant losses to AD though. They should have done that immediately, when UA legacy AD was on its last breath, but the schizophrenic nature of the operation at first kinda messed that up, with all the "goodwill gestures" etc.

    To mitigate the attacks on the Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet and those vulnerable regions closer to the front which are still contested such as Zaporozhie and Kherson - it's necessary for Russia to take the rest of the Black Sea coast all the way to Odessa.
    Which I suspect is what will happen after the next peace negotiation attempt brokered by whoever falls through.

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    Post  Belisarius Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:39 pm

    Yesterday dozens of explosions were reported in numerous Ukrainian cities, in Kharkov alone there were more explosions than in Crimea in recent months, but as usual for some here a Ukrainian PR attack deserve more attention than dozens of successful attacks made by Russia. ..

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    Post  ucmvulcan Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:47 pm

    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia has struck "decision making centers" multiple times.

    Each time they turned into kitten orphanages in an instant, of course, but still.

    What Russia hasn't done at all to my knowledge are symbolical strikes. For example every single administrative building, HQ or government "palace" in Kiev remain untouched. Hell, in most other cities too.

    So I wouldn't hold my breath if that's what you expect as retaliation.

    The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well. They've had dozens of opportunities to whack him, but have refrained from doing so. The same "courtesy" hasn't been reciprocated by UA, as they conduct all manners of terrorist attacks on all kinds of people, whether important or not, and wouldn't hesitate for a second to try to kill Putin or any other high ranking Russian official if an opportunity shows up.

    The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.

    Sometimes the best retaliation is that of your own time and choosing. Take the former head of Wagner. He led a coup during war time, thought he had gotten away with it, and then he was a problem solved at great height. If Putin retaliates for every little drone that does minor damage then he turns into the US sanvtions. All retaliation is rendered pointless. He knows that these acts are designed to provoke. He knows US planes and uniformed soldiers are involved in these. NATO wants these planes shot down. They want article 5 invoked because while you and I and several hundred million would die our deaths are a orice they are willing to pay in their well furnished luxury bomb shelters. Why give NATO the excuse to start that?

    Then there's the fact that these terror attacks are temper tantrums. As the offensive starts sinking in the mud and the bodybags start growing, these attacks increase. Putin knows that too.

    For those who want vengeance, and I completely understand the desire for that, do keep in mind that the vengeance will be in the form of transport infrastructure and airfields. Also, lots of talk on twitter that a counteroffensive may begin soon. So stay tuned

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    Post  Backman Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:47 pm

    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia has struck "decision making centers" multiple times.

    Each time they turned into kitten orphanages in an instant, of course, but still.

    What Russia hasn't done at all to my knowledge are symbolical strikes. For example every single administrative building, HQ or government "palace" in Kiev remain untouched. Hell, in most other cities too.

    So I wouldn't hold my breath if that's what you expect as retaliation.

    The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well. They've had dozens of opportunities to whack him, but have refrained from doing so. The same "courtesy" hasn't been reciprocated by UA, as they conduct all manners of terrorist attacks on all kinds of people, whether important or not, and wouldn't hesitate for a second to try to kill Putin or any other high ranking Russian official if an opportunity shows up.

    The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.

    Russia has struck 2 or 3 high profile SBU locations in the course of the war. But the attacks are always hush hush.

    There is a Nato liaison office in Kiev. There are all kinds of bureaucratic buildings that can be destroyed. Bring the war to the heart of Kiev.

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    Post  caveat emptor Fri Sep 22, 2023 7:13 pm

    kvs wrote:Russia needs to take care of the Ukr baby after this is all done.   So why would it level cities?   To rebuild them later?   The US
    is a very bad example.   It has no intention of rebuilding anything in Iraq just as it had no intention of rebuilding anything in Vietnam.

    See the difference.
    Taking whole Ukraine, after previous historical lesson with same endeavor,l during SU times,  would be a strategic level of mistake. They need to take all  of Black Sea Coast, reach  Danube and annex best parts of agri land and mining deposits. Whatever is left, should be left to languish and, with time, depopulate. 
    Otherwise, pure monetary cost of rehabilitation of huge country where good part of population has animosity towards you is an invitation for further problems in the future. 
    As for red line answers, destroying energy, transportation and telecommunications should do the trick. Spark another wave of refugees to EU.

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    Post  zorobabel Fri Sep 22, 2023 7:35 pm

    Video of one of the missiles striking the Black Sea Fleet HQ. The west site was already struck when this one hit on the east site. Looks pretty nasty. Hopefully the building was mostly empty.



    Photo

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 5 F6pmxTOXUAA0J8J?format=jpg&name=large


    Last edited by zorobabel on Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Fri Sep 22, 2023 7:54 pm

    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia has struck "decision making centers" multiple times.

    Each time they turned into kitten orphanages in an instant, of course, but still.

    What Russia hasn't done at all to my knowledge are symbolical strikes. For example every single administrative building, HQ or government "palace" in Kiev remain untouched. Hell, in most other cities too.

    So I wouldn't hold my breath if that's what you expect as retaliation.

    The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well. They've had dozens of opportunities to whack him, but have refrained from doing so. The same "courtesy" hasn't been reciprocated by UA, as they conduct all manners of terrorist attacks on all kinds of people, whether important or not, and wouldn't hesitate for a second to try to kill Putin or any other high ranking Russian official if an opportunity shows up.

    The frustration in Russian circles is understandable, and I don't know what the reasoning is.

    Sometimes the best retaliation is that of your own time and choosing.  Take the former head of Wagner.  He led a coup during war time, thought he had gotten away with it, and then he was a problem solved at great height.  If Putin retaliates for every little drone that does minor damage then he turns into the US sanvtions.  All retaliation is rendered pointless.  He knows that these acts are designed to provoke.  He knows US planes and uniformed soldiers are involved in these.  NATO wants these planes shot down. They want article 5 invoked because while you and I and several hundred million would die our deaths are a orice they are willing to pay in their well furnished luxury bomb shelters.  Why give NATO the excuse to start that?

    Then there's the fact that these terror attacks are temper tantrums.  As the offensive starts sinking in the mud  and the bodybags start growing, these attacks increase.  Putin knows that too.  

    For those who want vengeance, and I completely understand the desire for that, do keep in mind that the vengeance will be in the form of transport infrastructure and airfields.  Also, lots of talk on twitter that a counteroffensive may begin soon.  So stay tuned

    Saw somebody liken it to the V-weapon attacks. As Nazi Germany's military-industrial infrastructure was being pummeled at home and its armies being annihilated in the field, they started wasting resources on developing weapons to strike largely symbolic targets at long distances, as some kind of feelgood thing in the darkest hour.

    Of course, these developments were impressive in other ways and turned out to really shape the world post-war, but at the time is was a desperate hunt for PR and an attempt at (ultimately futile) demoralizing the Allies. They could have channeled those resources better, for them, at the time.

    Granted, UA hasn't invented anything themselves, but the general parallels seem quite obvious.

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    Post  Firebird Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:51 pm

    Kiev is a RUSSIAN city, infested with vermin. Foreign vermin and brainwashed vermin.
    I'm sure Russia could find some enemies of the United Snakes who would happily strike the UNited Snakes... if they were given good intel or weapons.

    So I am surprised the United Snakes Establishment has forgotten this.

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    Post  Arrow Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:52 pm

    However, Ukraine will receive ATACMS and Taurus missile.
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    Post  zorobabel Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:58 pm

    The attack coincided with Zelensky's visit to the US. As American Republicans prepare to move against further funding, this was also meant to make a case for more weapons, besides obvious reasons.

    Biden can transfer quite a lot by executive order, but if the US Congress backs it, they can continue the game much longer.
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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:59 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:
    kvs wrote:Russia needs to take care of the Ukr baby after this is all done.   So why would it level cities?   To rebuild them later?   The US
    is a very bad example.   It has no intention of rebuilding anything in Iraq just as it had no intention of rebuilding anything in Vietnam.

    See the difference.
    Taking whole Ukraine, after previous historical lesson with same endeavor,l during SU times,  would be a strategic level of mistake. They need to take all  of Black Sea Coast, reach  Danube and annex best parts of agri land and mining deposits. Whatever is left, should be left to languish and, with time, depopulate. 
    Otherwise, pure monetary cost of rehabilitation of huge country where good part of population has animosity towards you is an invitation for further problems in the future. 
    As for red line answers, destroying energy, transportation and telecommunications should do the trick. Spark another wave of refugees to EU.

    It will need to be taken unless there is a change of government to someone who is ready to break away from the West and make deals with Russia, and would have the authority among the local elites and population to implement that.

    Otherwise it's just going to become a giant Idlib funded by NATO and breeding problems for Russia.

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    Post  Regular Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:15 pm

    Clearly SS missile and this after Russia warned Kiev and the west. 

    So according to Rybar, 4 Su-24M and 7 missiles were involved. And this was enough to saturate Russian AD and sneak past CAP?
    How not to question this?

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    Post  Broski Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:22 pm

    It will need to be taken unless there is a change of government to someone who is ready to break away from the West and make deals with Russia, and would have the authority among the local elites and population to implement that.

    Otherwise it's just going to become a giant Idlib funded by NATO and breeding problems for Russia.

    Agreed, Ukraine will always be a bastard child but it'll either be Russia's bastard child to beat into submission or NATO's playground to recruit an endless pool of Russian-speaking brainwashed Nazis to use against Russia and its allies in terrorist/sabotage attacks. Just reintergrate Novorossiya back into the Federation and reform the rest of country 404 into a landlocked protectorate with no military (demilitarization) and no nazis (denazification).

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    Post  thegopnik Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:35 pm

    these constant su-24 strikes on Crimea makes me so relieved they are not fielding F-16s yet.

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    Post  Hole Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:05 pm

    The promise Putin made to Zelensky, that gave the latter the "courage" to leave his bunker early on still apparently stands as well.
    Why should Russia turn this puppet into a martyr? Currently most people around the world, even inside the elite circles of the west, hate him.
    Dead he would become a hero again.

    Russian redlines are useless.
    Pay no attention to all those NATO officers checking out by way of plane crashes. 
    West: Russia is only bluffing. The number of KIAs in the Ukro forces is closing in on 500.000. If that is a bluff I don´t want to see Russia taking her red lines seriously.

    What would you have Russia do, carpet bomb every bit of paved concrete and every metal structure that looks like it could be a hanger or store fuel or ammo?
    And while they are at it, bomb any civilian truck because it could be used to transport military goods.
    And don´t forget civilian cars and ambulances.  Rolling Eyes
    And yes, I know that the Ukros are using that stuff for military purposes, but it´s enough that western states are bombing civilians round the clock.

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    Post  Isos Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:16 pm

    thegopnik wrote:these constant su-24 strikes on Crimea makes me so relieved they are not fielding F-16s yet.

    There is no difference btw a su-24 launching cruise missiles or a f-16.

    If anyone of them enters the destruction range of russian SAMs or air patrols it is dead.

    The big mistake is to wait for this to happen. Ukro keeps them in safe areas protected by their own SAMs.

    If they want to destroy them they need to hit them with kinzhals on the ground.

    The other thing that is really surprising is the ukro an-124 that are still flying. What are they waiting to destroy them.

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    Post  franco Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:47 pm

    Constantly surprised at how people cannot grasp that the second largest military force in Europe with the full support of NATO will occasionally get a hit in via whatever means.

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    Post  Regular Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:24 pm

    franco wrote:Constantly surprised at how people cannot grasp that the second largest military force in Europe with the full support of NATO will occasionally get a hit in via whatever means.  

    Yes, but Ukrainian tochkas were completely negated and shot down and nothing was hit apart train station that belong to Ukraine themselves. Even when they attacked Donetsk city, it was shot down. 

    You are missing the problem- UA keeps reusing same planes for how many times? According to some Telegram chair generals, Ukrainian airforce and specifically SU-24M were destroyed 50 times. It’s not that they can be resupplied? Ukrainians shouldn’t be allowed to fly anything above the sea. Every time NATO assets are in the air, it should telegraph that something will be up, like now when P-8s were flying. CAP should thin SU numbers. 

    Another problem - Red lines. Both Medvedev and Shoigu drew them. Just fucking don’t. They look like utter idiots as if their bluff is being called out. There should be a line when crossed - all Ukrainian politicians, their properties, their business, their family members get geraned. Now escalation is all done by NATO and Ukraine and Russia just says - one step closer and I will shoot… When shot in the balls was already needed when Crimean bridge was targeted. It’s pretty simple, no one would have dared to play this game with Soviets and you know it

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    Post  Airbornewolf Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:56 pm

    just remember,

    The planning, targeting/guidance and weaponry are all from NATO.
    The Ukrainians are only tools that NATO uses to launch the weapon inside operational range of Crimea.

    This entire war is basically an NATO / Russia engagement in Ukraine.
    NATO started this back in 2013/2014 with the thought they would force Russia out of the black sea and build NATO bases right on Ukraine/russia's border.

    Instead, things have blown right up in NATO's face with their Nazi stooges in Kiev.
    Still believing in their false superiority and worldview that is something straight out an alternative reality.
    They choose to "support" Ukraine. Basically wage war against Russia with everything BUT your own physical troops.
    And NATO is imploding by supporting Ukraine.

    stockpiles are all depleted.
    Factory's can not find the resources and personnel.
    NATO "battle ready" units are stripped of gear/weapons to send to Ukraine.
    Russia first blows up NATO Wunderwaffe for all to see and hauls the rest off to Patriot park like they are on Safari.
    The EU economy is collapsing because of counter-sanctions and being globally pushed out of competitions.
    Millitary vacancy's are notoriously high, and the millitary have never been so impopular to join.

    NATO is trying to organize it's logistics in eastern europe. but runs into all kinds of problems.
    The rail network in eastern europe can not support the required western trains.
    NATO own road cargo units are near non-existent after decades of budget cuts.
    NATO air transport is just as non-existent.

    Civilian contractors, where NATO relies heavily on. works o.k in peacetime.
    But not with the requirements that are put on them now.
    Civilian contractors need to adhere civilian laws and regulations. And that means the driver's daily hours, ADR paperwork. permission from all states/provinces your millitary cargo passes trough.
    these things take time to request and process. Not what you want in an millitary logistics chain.

    Witch brings me back to these naval/cruise missile attacks on the Crimea.
    It is of no strategic consequence. The real war is fought on land.
    These are just desperate acts from NATO as they are already guaranteed an defeat in Ukraine.
    They just do not want to wake up from the "Russia lost simulator" just yet.

    Russia has been decimating the Ukrainian Gene-pool.
    To the point now Kiev wants NATO states to deport male Ukrainians to Kiev.
    Enlist women, and lower the conscription age to 16.
    oh yeah, and now lure in high-school kids comparing the war to an videogame.
    And handing out flyers to Ukrainian kids that say "we need soldiers, not students".
    "Der untergang" anyone?.

    Meanwhile, the Russian main forces in Ukraine are still held back behind defensive lines waiting for an order to advance.
    Clearly waiting for an signal.
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 5 Photo101

    Every war eventually ends, and this one ends on Russia's Terms.
    404 will cease to exist, Otherwise NATO will use it as a Nazi sock-puppet again somewhere in the future.
    however you look at this conflict, everybody knows this is the only decision Russia can make.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 5 Meme11

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      Current date/time is Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:20 pm