Russian special military operation in Ukraine #40

The founder of the group attached to it "the plan of the enemy and a proposal for countermeasures."

A plan that was made by russian officers sitting in the General Staff.
There a reports for days now that regular russian Army units are moving into positions around Bakhmut.

Chuba is now a spotter:




New map

Russia now quaking in its boots  

dana
@dana916
·
2h
Ukraine has received 8 Leopard 2 tanks, 4 armored recovery vehicles, and a mobile counter-battery radar from Norway - Norwegian Defense Ministry

Meanwhile

Today, a missile attack was carried out on the hangars, near the village of Otradokamentka, on the right bank of the Dnieper.

In the hangars there was a large concentration of AFU militants, artillery pieces, combat armored vehicles, as well as shells for Himars, which detonated spectacularly.

-Slavyangrad

What a waste. It will be all over bar the shouting before any significant deliveries.

Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine - The Financial Times, Mar19'23

Scarce gunpowder and TNT supplies delay shift to ‘large-scale war production’, defence industry and officials warn

Europe’s push to make arms for Ukraine has been hobbled by a shortage of explosives, which industry insiders fear will delay efforts to boost shell production by as much as three years.

Scarce supplies of gunpowder, plastic explosives and TNT have left industry unable to rapidly meet expected EU orders for Ukraine, regardless of how much money is thrown at the problem, according to officials and producers.

The supply chain constraints underline how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has badly exposed Europe’s inadequate arms stocks and weak domestic production capacity, run down by decades of under-investment.

“The fundamental problem is that the European defence industry is not in good shape for large-scale war production,” said one German official.

Europe is trying to meet Kyiv’s war fighting needs by pumping cash into the defence sector, particularly to encourage expansion of 155mm artillery production. There is dire need for shells, both to restock national armouries and maintain supplies to Ukrainian forces.

But producers, industry executives and EU officials warn increased demand may only push up prices that have already jumped a fifth over the past year.

“It’s very difficult to increase production of artillery ammunition, especially the heavy, large-calibre ammunition, in a short time,” said Jiří Hynek, chair of the Defence and Security Industry Association of the Czech Republic. “A new artillery factory is very easy, but how to produce more artillery projectiles without raw materials?

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation (20.03.2023)

On the Kupyansk direction, air strikes and artillery fire of the "Western" group of troops hit AFU units in the areas of Dvurechnaya, Berestovoye of Kharkiv Region and Artemivka of Luhansk People's Republic.

Up to 55 Ukrainian servicemen, an armored fighting vehicle, two pickup trucks, and a D-20 howitzer were destroyed.

In the Krasno-Limansky direction, active actions of units of the Center group of troops, air strikes and artillery fire destroyed enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of Yampolovka and Terny settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Over 100 Ukrainian servicemen, an infantry fighting vehicle, three pickup trucks, a vehicle, and an Msta-B howitzer were destroyed in this area during the day.

In the Donetsk direction, during active operations of Southern Group of Forces units and artillery fire in the areas of Semenovka, Petrovske and Tonenke settlements, over 245 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, three armored combat vehicles, three pickups, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle, as well as a Msta-B howitzer were destroyed.

On the South Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, air strikes and artillery fire of the Vostok Group of Forces defeated AFU units in the areas of Ugledar and Novomikhailovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Total enemy losses in these areas during the day amounted to over 50 Ukrainian servicemen, three tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles, two armored fighting vehicles, four vehicles and one D-20 howitzer.

In the Kherson direction, up to 40 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, three vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, a D-30 howitzer, and a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit were destroyed during the firefighting.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the past 24 hours hit 82 artillery units at firing positions, manpower and equipment of the enemy in 112 areas .

Fighter aviation of the Russian Air Force shot down a Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter near the village of Kolesnikovka, Kharkiv Oblast.

The air defense forces intercepted five HIMARS MBRLS rockets, as well as one HARM anti-radar missile during the day.

In addition, seven Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of Kreminna, Rubizhne, Ploshchanka, and Karmazinovka of the Luhansk People's Republic and Kirillovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation destroyed (losses over previous 24hrs(+?)):
402 aircraft, (Daily avg 1.1)
223(+1) helicopters, (Daily avg 0.6)
3,471(+7) unmanned aerial vehicles, (Daily avg 8.9)
414 surface-to-air missile systems, (Daily avg 1.1)
8,355(+17) tanks and other armored combat vehicles, (Daily avg 21.
1,070(+1) multiple rocket launchers, (Daily avg 2.
4,395(+7) field artillery and mortars, (Daily avg 11.4) and
9,027(+16) special military vehicles. (Daily avg 23.3)

Comment:

Sustained comparative reduced OP tempo over last 96hrs. Equivalent to average effort over Jan/Feb period. Current 96hr RF main effort concentrated & focused primarily vicinity of Bahkmut & Avdiivka, & lesser extent Kharkov & Zaporische regions.

Bahkmut & Chasov Yar highway MSR to the N is under severe pressure at five separate locs along MSR. RF outer ring continues to expand,inner ring contracts. AFU forces under sustained assaults from multiple axes as RF breaks-up & fragments pockets of resistance for destruction in detail. The remaining Bahkmut fragile barely traffic-able MSR, the Muddy Track of Death(MToD) continues to sustain ~30-40% casualties re manpower/materiel/vehicles re ingress & egress, via air attack & direct & indirect ranged Fires.

AFU Territorial(Conscript) formations supported by remnant Tank & Mech formations demonstrated combat ineffective re resisting RF attacks on MSR to N.

Latest AFU footage of the MToD at Intel Slava. 19s clip, TG Browse-able Open(Public).

Avdiivka double envelopment continues to develop, unconfirmed reports the road & rail MSR to NNW has been severed, minimally under imminent threat.

Early stages of two additional double envelopments developing in Kharkov region.

No demonstration of AFU ability to defend against or rollback RF double envelopments, hold or counter-attack flanks, of static fortified urban defense works.

AFU formations, other than weak remnant regular formations, continue to demonstrate negligible combat effectiveness & combat power when committed/engaged outside static defensive fortified entrenchments.

AFU forces continue to be fixed in place, pressed, & suffering disadvantageous attrition by air attack, direct & indirect ranged Fires & RF forces all along the FEBA(& immediate rear thereof to ~35km). AFU Air Defense Systems(ADS) essentially non-extant in Theater outside major, politically sensitive, urban city zones.

Note: The growing number & expansion of envelopments of AFU fortifications extends the total length of the Line of Contact & in & of itself further thins the density of AFU units defensive frontage thereby further weakening both combat power & straining already finite manpower/materiel reserves as losses continue to mount.

One of the statements that sticks in my mind from a few years ago was that the Ukie artillerymen shelling Donetsk were marked men.

Now note who is closing in on Avdiivka, yup and it ain't Wager. There is a debt to settle in this town, i suspect this will not be like Bakhmut, few will get out, day or night.

Suriyak
@Suriyakmaps
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23h
Situation north of Avdivka city:
#RussianArmy and #DPR forces made new advances south of Krasnohorivka/Красногорівка and west of Vesele towns & have already reached the dumps east of Avdivka waste landfills.

Wagner gym in the liberated part of Bakhmut.

Stepnove has been liberated

They´re using a lot of glide bombs in the last few weeks.


Source is propably western propaganda, but the two look great.

An interesting chain of posts on MoA


Ukrainian military amassing weapons in Zaporozhye for offensive, says regional official

   It is reported that the amassment of precision munitions and drones by the Ukrainian side and the Kiev regime’s attempts to conduct reconnaissance by fire in the Zaporozhye area are related to the preparations for an offensive

   MELITOPOL, March 20. /TASS/. The Ukrainian military has practically stopped using precision munitions and kamikaze drones in the Zaporozhye area that can evidence its attempt to amass armaments ahead of a potential offensive in the region, Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the We Are Together with Russia public movement, told TASS on Monday.

   "The adversary side is actually using no precision weapons now. The deliveries are underway and are increasing but they do not expend them, which testifies to force amassment. Their attack, their full-scale offensive will be accompanied by strikes from HIMARS [multiple launch rocket systems] and M777 guns, using guided munitions and shells, and the mass employment of kamikaze drones. We know that the adversary side has a great amount of them but they are being employed on a limited scale now," the regional official said.

   The amassment of precision munitions and drones by the Ukrainian side and the Kiev regime’s attempts to conduct reconnaissance by fire in the Zaporozhye area are related to the preparations for the offensive, Rogov said.

   To my mind, they are amassing armaments to start active combat operations and deliver a guaranteed strike on our reconnoitered positions, strikes on command posts to deprive us of coordination, depots and military hardware sites. I believe that this will be a simultaneous strike, following which their armor and infantry will push forward," the regional official explained.

   As Rogov told TASS earlier on Monday, the Ukrainian military made at least seven attempts to conduct reconnaissance by fire on the Zaporozhye frontline over the past week.

Um, and what will happen to these massed AFU forces when the front, the Line of Contact, is breached re Bahkmut & Avdiivka ? A potential deep penetration to sever their MSRs and rear ?

Having to dramatically conserve ordnance in order to launch offensive OPs does not augur well re sustainable defense & continued combat OPs, after the brief sally forth ... derelict insufficient logistics spells doom.

Against numerically & combat power superior RF forces in heavily prepared in depth developed defensive works, with a portion of ~370,000 RF active, forward deployed, uncommitted formations in immediate reserve ...

How long to the last ride of the Valkyries for the OUN-B Nazi's ?

Posted by: Outraged


More accurately, Ukraine realise Avdiivka front is collapsing and desperately rush forces under the guise of preparing for offensive, to stop widespread panic spreading. They don’t have enough forces or the defensive terrain to shore up their right flank, enabling them to launch a southern offensive, especially as the front will shorten dramatically, freeing up more Russian forces, worsening the COF and hence increasing the Russian advances, in both their frequency and distance advanced.

The virtual collapse of the northern and southern defences around Avdiivka are an ominous signal for Ukraine that it’s tactic of mitigating the poor tactical quality of its conscripts to occupy fixed defences, to shield its regular troops, is coming to a rapid end. These better trained forces will now be slowly attrited as they have to rush about as fire brigades to halt the collapse, as the militia units run out of pre-prepared defences and have their poor soldiering cruelly exposed.

The brilliant operation to focus NATO ISR on Bakhmut and trap the Ukrainians with their own rhetoric should, I think, be called the Pied Piper gambit.

Posted by: Milites

According to BMA analysis, Ukraine is also stripping logistics personnel from rear and territorial defense units from Belarus' border. UAF has made several probing attacks in the Orekhov (?) area of Zaporizhe line.

One can understand from reports that a certain attack around Bakhmut area is imminent. They might try to attack the pincers SW and NW of Bakhmut. They have also plowed more troops into Bakhmut itself.

What is most interesting question is what the actual plan is re. the "large" offensive in the Zaporizhe/Orekhov/Gulyapole line. From what I can gather, the Bakhmut offensive is imminent and designed to last only 5 days (per Syrsky and Zaluzhny), and talk has been of souther offensive beginning in May. It means they are relying on Bakhmut operation of succeeding and then moving them to the south.

But if they can get bogged down and destroyed around Bakhmut, partially through the help of air power advantage, it might seriously weaken the prospective offensive in the south. Western politicians telegraphed that Ukraine has only one shot of making the "large" offensive, continued armament deliveries are far from guaranteed for a long time to the future. The armaments that exist are already delivered, that's it.

Posted by: unimperator

How about this downside?


https://inf.news/en/military/00eab4e12667bb5ea614d229a70c1d3d.html

More cold water on the ‘Leopards are coming’ crowd, though annoyingly I cannot find the Swedish Army report he cites.

Bottom line, the tanks might be more economical that their rivals but in combat conditions they will burn through 1200 litres of fuel in 3 hours and 15 mins and I doubt the Swedes took into account Ukrainian mud, into those calculations. So, 80 Leopards will need 96000 litres of fuel every three hours, approx 250,000+ a day, that’s 30 HEMTTs or 180 fuel cans per tank per day, if you want to reduce your ISR signature. Does that sound within Ukrainian logistical capabilities?

More on Avdiivka

Translated, from Военная хроника, Military Chronicle, Telegram, browse-able Open(Public):

The Russian Armed Forces' offensive in Avdiivka: how the attack develops and what reserves the Ukrainian Armed Forces have

On March 20, reports emerged about the Russian Armed Forces' breakthrough to the southwestern part of Avdeevka. For the AFU, the Avdiivka area, like Artemovsk (Bakhmut), is strategically important. Additional reserves may be deployed to defend it.

What is the point of fighting for Avdiivka?

Avdeevka is a strategically important city in the DNR. It is an industrial center, home to Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant (ACP), Europe's largest producer of coal tar and coke gas. The civilian population of the city before the start of the special operation was 32,000 people.

What were the losses of the AFU in Avdeevka?

The most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Army were and still are located in the Avdeevka area: the 53rd Mechanized and 36th Marines Brigades, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, later reinforced by units of the 110th Combined Arms Brigade, as well as the 6th Detached Rifle Battalion, units of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade and the 55th Artillery Brigade.

By March 2023, losses of some AFU formations in Avdeevka had reached the 40% mark of their regular strength, and battalions and companies were occasionally withdrawn to restore combat readiness due to losses of 60% or more.

How many reserves does the AFU have for a counterattack in Avdeevka?

According to the Military Chronicle, in the neighboring settlements of Zhelannoye, Ochertino, Umanske and Progress, 20 km west of Avdeevka, the AFU has accumulated at least three companies from those mobilized for the 6th AFU OSB, from 70 to 85 men each. Approximately a battalion (420-440 men) of reserves has been accumulated to reinforce the 110th Mechanized Forces. Also, presumably, about one battalion each could have been amassed to make up for losses in the 72nd and 53rd Mechanized and 59th Motorized Infantry Brigades.

Where could the AFU strike?

The total number of the AFU operational reserves in the Avdyivka sector is estimated at 1.2-1.6 thousand men. Due to the looming threat of encirclement of Ukrainian troops, these forces are gradually being brought into the fight, but they operate mainly on the flanks: north of Krasnogorovka and Stepovoye, where the AFU has been cut off from the Avdeevka-Ocheretino railway line, as well as southwest of Avdeevka between Pervomaiskoye and Nevelskoye.

Xi is coming to try to force his peace plan. Would be sad if the war is frozen while the Battle for the Donbas is not won, meaning a Russian defeat, but I wouldn't be surprised.

You are confusing China and Russia with western countries.... a forced peace plan never works for long if at all.

China managed to get Saudi Arabia and Iran talking because they both want to join BRICS and improve their current situation and China merely had to point out what a drain the hostility between their two countries is on both countries... they don't have to be best buddies, but learn a little give and take and they can improve their own situation. BRICS is not about crushing the west and stealing their stuff, it is about a group of potentially very powerful countries (in their regions) getting together and trading fairly and working together to improve their situation. Talking and negotiating without forcing the others into the same religion or politics... Saudi Arabia can remain muslim and so can Iran while Russia will remain what it is and China what it is, Russia is a democracy but they wont try to bully China to adopt the same system, because communism or some variation on that might work best for them.

Xi wont force any outcome on Putin in the same way that Putin will not demand Xi solves its problems with the US and Taiwan the way he has decided.

Xi will offer what he thinks is a fair compromise and no doubt the US and Zelensky wont even consider it, because they already rejected much better offers like the original Minsk agreements where they would keep everything except the Crimea, but that was not good enough for them then and it wont be enough for them now even though that offer is no longer an option...

Xi will lay out his solution and Putin will look at it and likely make some comments and the Orcs will say no way... we are going to mount an offensive in May and take it all by force... why negotiate peace on the verge of victory...  hahahaha...

Just like Hitler in his bunker marshalling his enormous well equipped well armed and well supported forces in 1945... near the end he probably decided to add British and American forces to his own forces so he could pretend they had a chance... the way Zelensky likely will too.

So far Xi and Putin are having a chummy time

And so they should... taking on the western world is a really big deal and if either tried it on their own they would really suffer... but together they have a good chance of coming out of it far better than they might have with the alternative that the west offered which was complete subservience to the western powers... lower on the ladder than Poland and Ukraine.

Russia should wait until they produce them then destroy the artillery systems

Like the idea, but just keep destroying them as you find them...

That's because, contrary to what the West and a few forum members like to believe, people of colour are not stupid.

The arrogance of the west is astounding... but the people of the west were not given much choice in terms of economic and political progress, but now Russia and China or more precisely BRICS is offering a real alternative moving forward.

A prosperous future that does not include the west, because the last few hundred years working for the west has not produced the growth and development one might expect if there ever was going to be any with the west, but as we see with Russia and China, the west retards the growth of any countries it works with to maintain its comfortable position on top, so there was never any future where any other country could join the west except as a weapon against some other threat... look at Georgia and the Ukraine... you can join the west if you damage Russia... and it is destroying the Ukraine... we don't know what future Georgia will have, but not promising so far.

Cut off from trade with Russia the damage has not been repaired with similar trade relations with the west so the economic damage was inevitable.

To ensure their survival Asian and African countries are supporting Russia.

They will survive no matter what happens... but what BRICS promises is a chance to grow and develop and improve quality of life for everyone... not just the 1%... the west promised but in all the centuries has never delivered...

Source is propably western propaganda, but the two look great.

The irony is that as usual western propaganda reveals itself and its own evil... it is the west that wants to control the world, not Russia and not China.

Are there still civilians in Bahmut ? Why don't they load 10 su-34 with 20 fab-100 each and just carpet bomb the city instead of loosing men there ? Ukro there would give up immediatly.

The US carpet bombed most Iraqi cities and towns and they weren't using 100kg bombs and it didn't take one day or one week or one month... and even then most people in the cities were not killed either.

My feelings are that China is walking the tightrope for now , happy to carry on and see what happens . Not willing to take sides in this strongly . Also that they are getting tired of Russia demands , not going to bend or listen any longer .

I disagree, I think China is overjoyed at the situation in the Ukraine because it is keeping the west busy and focused and wasting lots of money and weapons on that conflict they could otherwise deploy to Asia to poke the dragon and get something going with Taiwan.

China knows Russia is OK as long as China doesn't join the western sanctions and cut them off, but China would never cut itself off from Russian energy and resources because they would be cutting their own throat.

Russia killing Ukrainians and Poles and volunteer westerners doesn't hurt China in any way or form, and China knows Putin did everything he could to avoid an actual shooting war but the west and the orcs gave him no choice. Putin is making the best of a bad situation... which is how the Crimea was rescued from the idiots in the west.

China wants a world where it can do as it pleases within reason and within international law, and the west is busy telling it what it can or cannot do... international law be damned when it suits them and Russia is not telling them what they can or cannot do.

The west has China under sanctions too.

Until the major offensives are complete and the four oblast are firmly under Russian control . Cease-fire can happen then , and if no agreement reached , the operation to liberate Odessa should be carried out then .

I suspect the Orcs will collapse after their next big push and Russia will be able to liberate as much territory as wants to be liberated.

I tend to ignore them as ravings of a mad man. Much like Oden of Oessetia.

Everyone can have their own views, and those views will be coloured by other views and opinions... I am sure there are good Americans... we have some who post here, but my general view of America is negative. That makes my view obviously wrong when I consider them all the same as their government... most people are victims of the evil of their governments... but that is the way it is... you could be the nicest German in the world, but when Hitler is in charge of your country then a lot of people are going to hate you for being German.[/quote]
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I thought they just dumped fuel and radar chaff on it?