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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #40

    Broski
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    Post  Broski Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:59 am

    More clucking I see, ok lets address this noise real quick.
    I am curious what Putin will say to Xi when he comes to Moscow with the peace deal drafted by the Academy of Military Sciences
    Ukraine rejected a perfectly good peace deal back in April 2022, is Russia supposed to force Zelensky or his NATO handlers to accept the Chinese peace proposal? Is China gonna commit a million man army in the Ukraine to enforce it? You speak as if Xi is in charge of the SMO (he's not).

    The AMS has said Russian losses and economic situation means the SMO will be over by end of 2023
    Yes and Putin has cancer, Russia has run out of missiles and artillery, the ruble is rubble, the Russian military doesn't collect their dead soldiers on the field, 50,000 Wagners have been killed in Bakhmut, did I leave anything out?

    Does Putin have a massive army built up, or is it mostly noise ?
    There's no army, mighty Ukronazis killed them all. Happy now doomer?

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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:09 am

    Uh yeah JDAM has proven it's precision for over 20 years now. Surprising you'd even ask that. wrote:

    JDAM depends on the GPS signal. Its been very effective against 3rd world nations without sophisticated ECM. In a heavy ECM environment its accuracy will be degraded. At longer ranges the SDB will have to fly a very predictable path to its target as it has to conserve energy. so it will be a sitting duck for guns.

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    ucmvulcan
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    Post  ucmvulcan Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:43 am

    Ark, I do think Russia has a large army built up, but full war and occupation is not what Putin wanted last year and its not what he wants now. I think the plan originally was that Russia's army would show up to major Ukrainian towns and cities and by and large the local populace and local admins would meet them with bread and salt, including Ukraine. They thought popular sentiment and bribes would lead to a decently quick end and Zelensky could either sue for peace or get tossed out. Honestly, without NATO assholery and Zelensky's idiocy they almost had that.

    However, Zelensky refusing peace and a general refusal of Ukrainians to stop the fighting meant tactics changed. Since Putin is on record as saying he has no aims on Ukrainian territory other than protecting Crimea and Donbass, which is why Russia has dug in in Kherson and Zaprozhiye and has spilled so much blood, material, and treasure in Donbass, he was willing to change tactics to get Ukrainian wehrmacht and Natozis to bash themselves on heavily entrenched positions.

    The large army, however, is probably not going to be brought forth at least not for a while. After all, if mercs and ex prisoners can play the score to Ukraine's Gottamerung with the help of artillery and rocketry why risk lives?

    Russia has bought up 300 thousand troops in Ukraine, but they won't be used for some time because the mission right now is killing Ukraine's army, destroying military infrastructure and making war not so much an idea of glory for Ukraine's voters, but something to be ended forever.

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    Post  Sujoy Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:06 am

    China remains a steadfast U.S ally. Whatever progress it has made so far and will make in the years to come is because of the U.S Just that supporting Russia is a Zero cost option for the Chinese leadership.

    To prove their allegiance to the U.S they decided to send a "balloon" over U.S airspace exactly when the U.S government had to divert public attention from the massive reversals that NATO is suffering in Ukraine.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:48 am

    I guess that your deep devotion toward China can spoil perspective in a way Laughing

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    Post  Sujoy Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:35 am

    ALAMO wrote:I guess that your deep devotion toward China can spoil perspective in a way Very Happy
    Last year China assembeled 100 thousands troops in its border with India and another 50 thousands troops near the maritime border with Taiwan.

    Yet Western governments chose not to criticize China, instead they diverted the attention of their populace towards Russian troops assembling near Ukraine.

    This is just one example.

    Willing to be proved wrong about US- China relations, but that might not happen.

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    Post  GarryB Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:21 am

    Much better solution than dropping unguided bombs with questionable precision and you know it. RuAF definitely failed by not having bombs that are modular like the mk80 series. Buying a handful of purpose built guided bombs clearly fails during war when you need many.

    LGB guidance kits for dumb bombs is a scam... take very expensive guidance kits and attach low cost cheap bombs... and you end up with an expensive guided bomb.

    US bombs are modular... you can pop the wings and fins off and they become warheads essentially so the LGB kit is replacement wings and fins for the dumb cheap bomb.

    For the Russians to do that they would have to remove the bits from the dumb bombs... but guess what... they used advanced computing power and sensors and instruments on their aircraft connected to radar and IR sensors and other systems to calculate the ballistic paths of those dumb bombs so they can release them from medium to relatively high altitude and achieve quite respectable accuracy that is close to guided weapon performance... without an expensive guidance kit.

    American guidance kits for dumb bombs make bombing expensive because it uses up all those cheap bombs and replaces them with expensive guided bombs.

    The cost of designing and fitting a warhead section to a LGB guidance kit would be less than the cost of the dumb bombs, so essentially they are using up the cheap bombs by making them expensive.

    What an achievement.

    Russia has had decades to copy that but they know it is a bad idea so they haven't.

    China remains a steadfast U.S ally.

    India has more ties with the US and has joined an anti Chinese grouping led by the US to oppose China.

    India has more American weapons and equipment in service than China does, and both countries try to maintain reasonable relations with the US and the west despite all the shit both countries get from the US over everything.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:34 am

    "To prove their allegiance to the U.S they decided to send a "balloon" over U.S airspace exactly when the U.S government had to divert public attention from the massive reversals that NATO is suffering in Ukraine."

    Think you drew the wrong conclusion.

    It seems that these balloons are fairly common, by many countries. No fuss was made until this one, intentional or not, happened to coincide with a now rare planned trip by Blinken to Beijing that the hawks in Washington did not want to take place as it might have advanced peace. Perfect opportunity to make a fuss and force cancellation of the visit, which is what happened.

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    TMA1
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    Post  TMA1 Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:30 pm

    I have to agree with sujoy. The chinese people are awesome but I dont trust their government one damn bit. I have a fear sometimes that the Chinese and the west want to split the world between them as powers. Western governments are learning from the chinese and using some of their models. Our private sector is even developing further a similar kind of social credit system.

    But I just dont think the western elites wish to share power with peers and so if Russia is knocked out, China would be the only ones remaining to resist (scary thought of the chicoms and globohomo being the only two powers). I think China needs Russia as much as Russia needs China.
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:56 pm

    Well why would Xi keep pressing for some kind of peace deal?

    It has some influence

    China is a partner and one cannot discard what they are saying, especially if Putin is inviting Xi to Moscow - you don't invite the leader of the world's largest economy, and your own major partner to ignore him , it's obvious that things have to be smoothed out

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    Post  Hole Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:19 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #40 - Page 5 Frd0zq10
    Next cauldron coming up
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #40 - Page 5 Frdm4s10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #40 - Page 5 Frfkj010

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    Post  Firebird Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:26 pm

    @TMA
    I've heard the following theory advanced.

    America has installed/collaborated with many Chinese oligarchs/business leaders since the deCommunisation of the Chinese economy. The argument is that some parts of China are paying the Biden gang to cause shit in the Ukraine.
    These US AND CHinese forces think they can weaken Russia for their benefits. And it may even be China that is first to directly strike Russia in whatever years/decades time.

    Europe, Russia's natural ally (in this theory) has so disgraced itself that its hard to see Russia-Europe relations being fixed. Initially America wanted to poison Russia-Europe relations. But Europe has proved itself to be such vermin, why would Russia want to bother now.

    Xi might be more of a "Socialist". But there again it could be a ruse/a deception to keep the Chinese people onside.
    Certain forces in China want it to be a full on corporativist/Fascist state. And they share much (evil) in common with much of the US Establishment.

    So who are Russia's best friends right now outside of the FSU obvious countries? India, much of Arabia, much of Africa, parts of Lat America.

    I can't say I fully subscbribe to the theory America and China are/will be partners in crime vs Russia. BUT I think Russia needs to be cautious with ALL other powers. Russia will look after Russia. No one else.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:13 pm

    Russia can't ignore China - They have a say in Russia no matter what

    The reasons are obvious , right now China is becoming the largest trading partner, trade is surging past 200B mark , and growing , Power of Siberia 2 will be coming as well, and then you will have 60 BCM through PS1 and another 50 BCM through PS2

    That's 110 BCM, supplanting 155BCM to EU, the difference of 45BCM can be made up by sales to various states and gas deals with Iran for Pars fields and future Caspian pipelines to India when it comes

    This is a major reason why Xi will have a major say-

    BTW China is not hurting Russia, they just want to preserve the EU as a trade partner - they have simple made their own estimates, and right or wrong - Putin has to assuage the Chinese about any concerns before they draw conclusions and make up a policy

    For those reasons , Xi has to have an intimate understanding or at least a clear perspective on Moscows goals and objectives in the SMO- even if those are fluid and changing, you can play cryptic with the media and the people , but not with your #1 partner

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    Post  famschopman Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:20 pm

    The Chinese always favored an opportunistic and capitalistic culture. No emotion, no empathy, just focused on stone cold business practice.

    That being said, Xi also sees the US/Taiwan influence as a pain in the ass and the language by Chinese politicians towards US policies have recently increased in blunt counters and significantly little patience. China is well aware of the financial situation and what the FED is doing to worsen the situation.

    For now a good ally for Russia but The Chinese would sell their offspring to gain a profit. Their culturally very much influenced by their desire to gain power. And - looking back on a multi polar society - this is not ideal in terms of searching for equality.

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    Post  Firebird Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:32 pm

    @Arkanghelsk.
    Protecting lives in the Russian World, protecting Russia from attack, restoring ancient Russian lands, destroying Nazism are non negotiable. If China can't accept that, then China is no different to Uncle Sham, Nuland, McCain and hairsniffing Joe.

    My suspicion is that China is being diplomatic in public. But if it behave like a prick in private then Russia needs to be firm. Not that I think China would want to sour Russia relations. Western media is misrepresenting China's dislike for America, I believe.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:38 pm

    Xi will be in Moscow next week it seems

    Big news coming after Saudi Iranian diplomatic restoration of ties

    China throwing weight now

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    Post  Broski Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:41 pm

    The argument is that some parts of China are paying the Biden gang to cause shit in the Ukraine.
    China and Chinese oligarchs/businesses already had access to cheap Russian commodities and resources long before 2022 and the CCP understands that if NATO were to hand a strategic defeat to Russia in the Ukraine and disintegrate the Federation into several new NATO-controlled statelets (like Yugoslavia), China would be next.

    And it may even be China that is first to directly strike Russia in whatever years/decades time.
    Man may also grow wings on his back and learn to fly in whatever years/decades time, but the odds of that happening are about the same as China launching a war against Russia.

    Europe, Russia's natural ally (in this theory)
    The last 400+ years of history says otherwise, or should we get a 2nd opinion from Hitler, Napoleon, Sigismund and Charles XII?

    So who are Russia's best friends right now outside of the FSU obvious countries?
    Virtually all FSU countries are either neutral or antagonistic towards Russia, including Kazakhstan. Belarus only became an "Ally" after the attempted coup against Lukashenko and subsequent sanctions from the EU/US.

    'America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests' - Henry Kissinger
    There are no friends in Geopolitical matters, only interests. Russia's interests right now is to help usher in a multipolar world and usurp the unipolar dominance the US has had for the last 75+ years, and for that Russia needs to be on good terms with both the East and the Global South.

    BUT I think Russia needs to be cautious with ALL other powers. Russia will look after Russia. No one else.
    Unlike the lapdogs in NATO, Russia isn't looking for another country to be its 'Daddy'.

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    Post  Isos Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:06 pm

    It's been 15 years that US is reorienting its military toward the Pacific to be ready for a war with China. And you think Chinese will let US grab russian power for themselves.

    Russia isn't an enemy for the US. Their only enemy is Chinese economy and advancement that catches them in every field.

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    Post  diabetus Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:07 pm

    Mnztr wrote:JDAM depends on the GPS signal. Its been very effective against 3rd world nations without sophisticated ECM. In a heavy ECM environment its accuracy will be degraded. At longer ranges the SDB will have to fly a very predictable path to its target as it has to conserve energy. so it will be a sitting duck for guns.

    No sign of that ECM since Ukraine has been using GPS guided shells and missiles the entire time without issue.
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    Post  diabetus Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:12 pm

    GarryB wrote:LGB guidance kits for dumb bombs is a scam... take very expensive guidance kits and attach low cost cheap bombs... and you end up with an expensive guided bomb.

    US bombs are modular... you can pop the wings and fins off and they become warheads essentially so the LGB kit is replacement wings and fins for the dumb cheap bomb.

    For the Russians to do that they would have to remove the bits from the dumb bombs... but guess what... they used advanced computing power and sensors and instruments on their aircraft connected to radar and IR sensors and other systems to calculate the ballistic paths of those dumb bombs so they can release them from medium to relatively high altitude and achieve quite respectable accuracy that is close to guided weapon performance... without an expensive guidance kit.

    American guidance kits for dumb bombs make bombing expensive because it uses up all those cheap bombs and replaces them with expensive guided bombs.

    JDAM kits cost about $25k per kit, not sure why you think that's expensive for the US. Thank you for repeating the marketing brochure material about SVP-24. A guided round that isn't expensive, as JDAM is, is always a more effective solution.

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    Post  flamming_python Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:21 pm

    I doubt this, but I do agree the Bakhmut approach is just not feasible - there are too many losses to continue this approach especially for urban battles like Slavyansk and Kramatorsk which will be coming at end of 2023, or maybe even in 2024

    It was never feasible, now that Wagner is fighting for every house and street in Bakhmut, it will take as many losses as the Russian forces in Mariupol. And that was clearly the Ukraine's plan for Bakhmut. Sacrifice some more troops to increase losses for Russia, together with offering the fake prospect of a relief offensive to those Ukrainian troops left surrounded there. Again same as in Mariupol.

    Russia needs to develop suicide mini-drones, mini-drones with machine guns, RPOs and other things for these kind of battles. Introduce the remote-controlled T-72 tanks they have in testing as well, and the Uran-9 ground vehicles and whatever else, doesn't matter even if they're crappy.
    Either that or do like the Americans did in Monte Casino, just level the city block by block with air-power and artillery as resistance is noticed. But I think while Russian troops are on friendly territory (the Donbass), this tactic is not acceptable

    the chechens have not been seen since Mariupol and that gives some indication to how big those losses were , sure Alaudys unit in Kremennaya is there, but certainly they are not at the level they were in Mariupol, and Wagner will also need a lot of time to reconstitute after Bakhmut

    They uh, moved to here. Still active active though
    https://www.youtube.com/@akhmat6015/featured
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:54 pm

    Flaming, it is quite ironic that you say this

    I think i was advocating for this as early as March 2022

    And I was told many things by members here , about the need to save Ukro lives

    Now that our men are taking losses, it seems that my initial thoughts have now become the solution

    And I think Surovikin as head of Air and Missile defense will implement it

    I knew this is how it would end, as Ukrainians would fight for each building, trench, treeline in the country

    These guys are Russians and they will never give up, an imposed defeat is the only solution now and I am glad you see this

    And as for friendly territory not being shelled - see Marinka and Avdeyevka

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    Post  ALAMO Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:07 pm

    It was never feasible, now that Wagner is fighting for every house and street in Bakhmut, it will take as many losses as the Russian forces in Mariupol. And that was clearly the Ukraine's plan for Bakhmut. Sacrifice some more troops to increase losses for Russia, together with offering the fake prospect of a relief offensive to those Ukrainian troops left surrounded there. Again same as in Mariupol.

    There is a huge difference. Actually you are addressing totally different situations.
    Mariopol was manned by elite Azov troops.
    And calling them elite is deliberate - they were. Every single material we have for inspection shows a force that was much better equipped, trained, and motivated than an average Ukrainian army unit. What's more, it was battle-hardened as well, a thing that can be said about neither Russian marines nor Chechen/NG units.
    Mariopol was their crown trophy given for carrying out the punitive operation back in April 2014, which included executing the police officers who tried to defend the city inhabitants.
    They were fighting paws&teeths for their den.
    Yes the battle was hard, and sure the Russians took multiple casualties, yet they managed. The thing that is hardly being lighted is the fact, that Russian forces were again numerically inferior to the city garrison.

    Artemovsk is a different kind of animal. It is one of the strategic strongpoints hardened for 8 years. Very important communication hub.
    Yet used to be manned by regular army units and some supportive forces.
    As the battle has continued since August, the whole situation is closing to a zoo. Ukro side is throwing everything they have there, including the special operations units, remains of NG battalions, mercenaries, and physically everything they have.
    So what we have here is urban warfare carried by forces absolutely nonequal. Wagner is a specialized light infantry constructed for this kind of task. Clashed with regular army units they will obviously overwhelm, and ae are talking now about a bunch of "mobilized" that were "trained" for a week and shoot four rounds in the process.
    Losses ratio will be heavily in favor for the musicians.

    And that is why the whole bullshit story about "30:1", "100:1" etc is being pumped via Ukro stream. They are just covering the crush of their forces.

    And last but not least, Russians have a mobilization base of about 10x the one Ukros have left. Objectively speaking, they won't run out of men, even if doing the things Ukros are claiming - which is obvious nonsense.

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    Post  Regular Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:25 pm

    mnztr
    JDAM depends on the GPS signal. Its been very effective against 3rd world nations without sophisticated ECM. In a heavy ECM environment its accuracy will be degraded. At longer ranges the SDB will have to fly a very predictable path to its target as it has to conserve energy. so it will be a sitting duck for guns."

    I don't think it does inflight adjustments as in cruise missile and GPS coordinates should be preprogrammed during the launch,as soon as it gets close to ECM area, it might be bit too late.
    Shooting down on other hand, it could be piece of cake for Pantsir. As you said, very predictable flightpath

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    Post  Mir Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:30 pm

    Just a quick remark on China (PRC). China is a Communist country but with ONE very big difference from any other Communist country. It has a market driven economy. By doing just that the CCP managed to lift an entire country with the largest population in the world out of poverty in just over 50 years! No other country in the world can claim anything close to that. In fact the rest of the world is getting poorer - just look at Europe and the US (the Capitalist "heaven") for easy examples on rapid economic decline towards the Third World.

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