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flamming_python
Tsavo Lion
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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed Oct 19, 2022 6:43 am

    https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war-plunging-birth-rate-form-perfect-storm/

    IMO, Russia may compensate her war & emmigration losses by added former Ukr. populaton, but those people will either stay in annexed parts of Ukraine or be moved to other parts of Russia, & likely/mostly not to places from which emmigrants & mobilized came from.
    If she plays her cards right, many of those who fled Ukraine & mobilization will return, but too will take years at best.
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Oct 19, 2022 2:36 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war-plunging-birth-rate-form-perfect-storm/

    IMO, Russia may compensate her war & emmigration losses by added former Ukr. populaton, but those people will either stay in annexed parts of Ukraine or be moved to other parts of Russia, & likely/mostly not to places from which emmigrants & mobilized came from.
    If she plays her cards right, many of those who fled Ukraine & mobilization will return, but too will take years at best.

    Yakov Kedmi was asked something about the emigration losses and people running from the country in a recent interview (Russian only unfortunately)

    He opined that in his view Russia as an organism is detoxifying itself of the various pathogens and problems that it has, and that as everyone knows such a process ends in excretion of one kind or another

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed Oct 19, 2022 6:02 pm

    It's not like Russia & GB sending convicts to Siberia & Australia, respectively.
    It's rather the brain drain, as during the Lenin's & Stalin's rule the best & brightest left or were killed, resulting in negative selection.

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    Post  GarryB Thu Oct 20, 2022 2:48 am

    It's not like Russia & GB sending convicts to Siberia & Australia, respectively.

    For all the convicts the British sent to Australia, a hell of a lot more from GB and Europe came to get away from their economic situation and oppression of those in charge. The opportunity to actually own some land instead of renting from a land owner who could kick you off any time they wanted and charge you anything they pleased was a powerful reason to leave to countries that spoke english and had similar laws and culture.

    It's rather the brain drain, as during the Lenin's & Stalin's rule the best & brightest left or were killed, resulting in negative selection.

    If all the best and brightest leave then Russia would not be in the current situation it is in... being able to challenge and stand up to the west takes stability and organisation and brains and capabilities most western countries lack... which is why they follow orders.

    Here in New Zealand there is a tradition of the OE, or overseas experience... where young people just after they leave high school or university head to the UK or Australia or somewhere else to get a bit of experience of the world before getting a job and having a family.

    Some don't come back, but quite a few get experience and meet someone and when they get to having kids realise how dangerous London is and want to move back to New Zealand, because it is 20-30 years behind the UK and US on the crazy scale...

    If you flipped the southern hemisphere onto the northern hemisphere New Zealand would be level with Spain and is surrounded by water which moderates its climate... not too hot, not too cold... the goldilocks zone... Australia is better if you love the heat, but if you don't like it too hot there is Tasmania too.[/quote]

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:02 am

    If all the best and brightest leave then Russia would not be in the current situation it is in...
    it would be in a lot batter condition & therefore situation if all those who left or were prosecuted, imprisoned & died stayed or were free instead. General Vlasov is a case in point: he was 1 of the best, but after Stalin couldn't/wouldn't send him reinforsements, he surrendered & switched sides, before his ROA killed many enemies of Germans, incl. Soviets. All ethnic Germans under occupation also left the USSR with retreating Wehrmacht. After the war, many Red Army soldiers defected to the US & British occupation zones. Once u taste freedom, u don't want to loose it!
    There is also a thing called "internal brain drain", when educated & highly qualified people r forced to do completely different jobs or not employed at all, thanks to economic & political reasons.
    That happened a lot in the 1990s & is happening now.
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    Post  flamming_python Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:24 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    If all the best and brightest leave then Russia would not be in the current situation it is in...
    it would be in a lot batter condition & therefore situation if all those who left or were prosecuted, imprisoned & died stayed or were free instead. General Vlasov is a case in point: he was 1 of the best, but after Stalin couldn't/wouldn't send him reinforsements, he surrendered & switched sides, before his ROA killed many enemies of Germans, incl. Soviets. All ethnic Germans under occupation also left the USSR with retreating Wehrmacht. After the war, many Red Army soldiers defected to the US & British occupation zones. Once u taste freedom, u don't want to loose it!
    There is also a thing called "internal brain drain", when educated & highly qualified people r forced to do completely different jobs or not employed at all, thanks to economic & political reasons.
    That happened a lot in the 1990s & is happening now.  

    None of the stuff you wrote about the 40s has any relevance

    Neither do the 90s for that matter

    Russia is facing off against the collective Western bloc. Those who value nothing other than self-preservation and self-enrichment are free to get lost.
    It's going to be a bumpy ride. But so far it's Europe which has taken the biggest beating. Wonder where their brains are all going to move to. Dubai? Turkey?

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    Post  sepheronx Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:39 am

    China actually.

    Lots of professionals in multitude of fields have gone to China for work. Once the Euros face too much trouble they will go to both either Russia or China. Both are pumping money into the high tech field and while Russia only needs a few to which they can pay good, the Chinese want a lot and have plenty of cash to make it happen.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:46 am

    Those who value nothing other than self-preservation and self-enrichment are free to get lost.
    "Good iron isn't used to make nails & good men r not used to make soldiers", as an old Chinese saying goes. In the country in which Marshall Zhukov once said about high casualties in the Red Army: "women will give birth to more!", many feel it's not worth to be patriotic & dance to government's tunes while sticking 1s neck out. What for did all those conscripts die in Angola, Hungary, Afghanistan, Checnya, Georgia, & on the Chinese border? 1 Taoist said: "I will not sacrifice a single hair from my body for an empire." Amen!
    Wonder where their brains are all going to move to. Dubai? Turkey?
    And to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, & Thailand. A few will get to Spain, Canada, & USA.
    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:28 am

    flamming_python wrote: Those who value nothing other than self-preservation and self-enrichment are free to get lost.
    It's going to be a bumpy ride. But so far it's Europe which has taken the biggest beating. Wonder where their brains are all going to move to. Dubai? Turkey?

    Someone once said that patriotism is last refuge of the scoundrel. Your sentence about self-preservation and self-enrichement is empty talk, especially in view of the people in governing structures. It doesn't inspire many to stay and fight. Others are just not built for it. Most of the cowards will anyway come back when war is over.
    As for morality of ones that left, judging by behavior of many Russians abroad one would think that self-enrichement is a new religion in Russia. Luckily, I've visited the country and know that is not entirely true. 
    Anyway, that's all empty talk. Problem here is existing brain drain, and it is happening as we speak. Personally, i know few valuable ones that left and one of them from your hometown.
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    Post  Kiko Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:37 pm

    Sense of national unity in Russia on the rise– poll

    More than half of the respondents in a new survey believe the nation has come together amid the Ukraine conflict.

    The number of Russians with a sense of national unity has increased dramatically amid Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine, the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) reported on Thursday.

    According to a new poll from the center published on the eve of Unity Day, 56% of respondents believe there is national unity in Russia. This is “the maximum figure since the measurements started,” VCIOM said, noting that, last year, only 31% of Russians reported sharing this view. In 2012, when the survey was conducted for the first time, those who believed that the country was unified was less than 23%, while 56% believed there was no such thing.

    “Russians themselves point to positive changes. Every other person believes that national unity in the country has increased over the past year (49%),” VCIOM said.

    Around 15% of respondents view the peaceful coexistence of different people in Russia as a key manifestation of unity, and 9% believe that “at difficult times, Russia comes together” – the same percentage say the “majority of the population supports one leader and his policy.” Among those who believe there is unity, 28% say this is due to the attitude of Western countries towards Russia amid the military operation in Ukraine.

    According to the research center, which interviewed 1,600 adults by phone on October 28, all socio-demographic groups have a sense of “the unity of the people” in a more or less similar way – this is stronger in small towns (62%) and villages (60%) than in Moscow and St. Petersburg (both 45%).

    As would be expected, fewer and fewer people now say that national unity is declining – 37% – compared to last year’s 61%.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/565904-sense-national-unity-russia/

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:35 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:
    flamming_python wrote: Those who value nothing other than self-preservation and self-enrichment are free to get lost.
    It's going to be a bumpy ride. But so far it's Europe which has taken the biggest beating. Wonder where their brains are all going to move to. Dubai? Turkey?

    Someone once said that patriotism is last refuge of the scoundrel. Your sentence about self-preservation and self-enrichement is empty talk, especially in view of the people in governing structures. It doesn't inspire many to stay and fight. Others are just not built for it. Most of the cowards will anyway come back when war is over.
    As for morality of ones that left, judging by behavior of many Russians abroad one would think that self-enrichement is a new religion in Russia. Luckily, I've visited the country and know that is not entirely true. 
    Anyway, that's all empty talk. Problem here is existing brain drain, and it is happening as we speak. Personally, i know few valuable ones that left and one of them from your hometown.

    It's not about patriotism, but at least a minimum of faith in the country and society, so as to not be spooked to such an extent that the economy will collapse or that they will need to mobilize you - likely a 20-something IT guy with no military experience - that you simply run away from the country and leave your whole life there behind.

    Or the people who ran away had nothing keeping them here in the first place; no jobs, no family, non property and mortgages, just some fantasies about how much better life is in Europe, and decided to use the opportunity to check it out.

    Also the people who support the West in the conflict, by any idiot understood by now to be an existential one, or those who by some notion of keeping their Western-market orientated business - flee to the West and join an anti-Russian political movement; as one fellow who I nearly went into business with a year prior did.

    In all cases - good riddance.
    Because none of these people have much in the way of brains to begin with, by my estimation. I'm sure that as you say, many will return anyway.

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