sepheronx wrote:I truly believe that eventually Russia will have to punish Kazakhstan. And guaranteed China will follow along. It doesn't seem Kazakhs are very bright seeing as they are wedged between two major powers that they will end up antagonizing on behest of Turkey.
One should not underestimate how much of the Kazakh elite has been bought up by Anglo-American concerns, how many of their elite's kids are studying in the West, how many of them have property there, or shares in companies, mutual investments, Western investments in Kazakhstan.
To be more precise, overall Russia has more of most of these things with Kazakhstan; mutual investments, property investments, students from Kazakhstan, etc... but the elites specifically are in bed with the West.
And Tokayev's political base still looks shaky for that reason. He's facing a crisis of legitimacy and his nobles are plotting against him. Nazarbayev's money and state holdings in the West are still frozen and subject to the West giving its approval to the newly elected leader of Kazakhstan after elections there. And in the elections themselves Tokayev needs to unite society behind him. One can give Tokayev the benefit of the doubt on that basis.
Nevertheless there are lines that are not to be crossed even with all that considered and selling weapons through intermediaries to the Ukraine is certainly one such line; it amounts to treachery against a military ally.
Provided that this deal is torpedoed, Russia can tolerate everything else. Main thing is that Tokayev cements his powerbase. If he then decides to switch to America and Europe after all then measures can be taken after that by Russia and China but I have my doubts it will come to that. The Kazakhs are in fact not that stupid, it's just a country which has been thoroughly sold, bought out, destabilized and all this can't be reversed instantaneously.
A Russian victory against the West in the Ukraine especially will close this question as well.
Any open antagonism of Russia towards Kazakhstan however will be extremely counterproductive. There are many there who are positively disposed towards Russia and do not agree with the schizophrenia of their leadership.
Last edited by flamming_python on Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:05 am; edited 1 time in total