Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23

ALAMO wrote:

sepheronx wrote:The amount of people panicking in telegram of Russia potentially gonna lose a village cause "it's the road to Izyum" don't seem to really understand how conflicts work.

It also makes me question general intelligence of people.

C'mon bro, they are getting paid for this drama
More drama and more emotions - more patronite payments.
This is how it rolls

I gotta get on that action.

They all say they have contacts in the LDPR or Wagner forces and saying a lot of stuff but videos and photos says contrary.

What are they called again? Grifters?

lancelot wrote:

Backman wrote:According to some , Russian spies are so infiltrated through the ranks of the SBU ect that they can't just take them out. Yet.

And there is evidence to support this. The accuracy of Russian intel on arms movements.

Russia still just wants to fight this war on the cheap probably for economic reasons. But i think that excuse is long over. The economy is fine.

Some say that Russia does not want to expose it's real military to Nato. Because then NATO would train to counter it better. And they supposedly have to save the real military for in case nato jumps in. NATO has jumped in , in a proxy way so i don't get that line of thinking.

I think Russia fully expected large tank losses in case of direct conventional conflict. And that is why they funded massive numbers of the cheaper T-72B3 model instead of a smaller amount of more modern tanks. But now that the game is afoot I suspect Russia will focus on T-90M and T-14 production. This degree of direct NATO aid to Ukraine might have been a surprise, although within expectation, to Russian military planners. I think the planners took into consideration all the scenarios including a full on direct conflict with NATO. Which is why Russia put its nuclear forces into high alert the minute the conflict started.

This is Russia's real military. But they are being constrained by several factors. The stated goal of this being a war that would minimize civilian casualties. And initially there were no plans to take further Ukrainian territory I think. But the SBU terrorizing the governors and administrations of provinces like Kherson who collaborated with the invasion troops probably pushed things over the edge. And yes Russia has to keep some forces in reserve for NATO. You saw little use of the Kinzhal for example. I suspect most of it is being kept in reserve in case they need to hit NATO targets. I also only saw use of the stealth Kh-101 on the beginning of the conflict. The MiG-31 also saw little use thus far and seems to be kept on reserve.

KOALITSIYA-SV !  
I think that Russia will pay a lot of attention to the further development of artillery, bearing in mind the proven importance of artillery. I am primarily thinking of the self-propelled howitzer 2S35, wheeled self-propelled howitzer 2S40 Floks, self-propelled mortar 2S41 Drok, wheeled self-propelled mortar 2S43 Malva.
Of the weapons systems currently in use I think the BTR-82 is the weakest link (although it is not worse than the American Stryker) and I think more work will be done to replace the BTR-82 with the Boomerang than it will be with the BMP-3 over the Kurganets-25.
The T-80BVM is planned for the northern regions of Russia and I think it will remain in modernization for some time. Tanks that will certainly increase the combat power of Russian tank units are the T-90M and T-14. There are quite a few T-72 tanks of all modifications, and I think that in the future they will be the second line of defense, that is, more like a reserve.
Mass rearmament to new air defense systems will continue, primarily on the S-350 and S-500, while additional quantities of the new S-400 will also be delivered. The same applies to Buk-M3, Tor-M2 and Pantsyr-SM. I would add the importance of Derivatsiya-PVO.


Aviation; The Su-34 will most likely be the most massive platform based on the Su-27 and will certainly outnumber the Su-35S and Su-30SM/SM2. The Su-57 is coming, the Okhotnik drone also and I hope in a couple of years the Su-75. We can also expect huge quantities of new Ka-52M and Mi-28NM, as well as new Mi-8 variants. I also expect a larger number of Mi-38s in the Russian Air Force.

Navy; remains the weakest link even though enormous resources have been given over the past decade. Both nuclear attack submarines and surface warships of larger displacement are not delivered on time and in sufficient numbers. A replacement for project 971 submarines and for large anti-submarine ships of project 1155 is badly needed. Even if there are 8 to 9 Yasen submarines by the end of the decade, it is still ridiculously small because in 2030 all submarines of project 971 will be at least 35 years old (except for the Gepard submarine ), so it is necessary for Russia to have at least 4 divisions (24 submarines) with attack submarines. Sevmash must complete the strategic 955A submarines and fully commit to the construction of submarines that will replace the 971 submarines.
Project 22350 frigates are a horror I won't even talk about. It is an unprecedented shame that the Russians did not start working on the development of gas turbines from 1991 to 2014 (a whole 23 years), so they do not have them even today. Eight years since the Russians started working on their gas turbines have passed and when "Golovko" finally sets sail, we will only then see how reliable the Russian M90FR gas turbines and PO55P reducers are. Russia must turn to China because it is a shame to start building the project 22350 frigate a WHOLE 16 YEARS ago, only to have two frigates in service in 2022. In the same period, China built; 7 Type-055, 24 Type-052D, 4 Type-052C, and God only knows how many Type-054A frigates and Type-056A corvettes.
The Russian Navy is in bad shape and its role is exclusively to deliver SLBM missiles and cruise missiles from territorial waters. And while there is hope for submarines, I don't see it when it comes to surface warships.

“This purchase indicates that the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions,” the official added.

This is the important part of the story about Russia buying stuff from North-Korea. This is what the Ministry of Truth in Washington wanted to get out to the stupid people in the Empire: "Look, our sanctions are working. We have to keep them up. You have to sustain the pain of high energy bills for a few month, then the victory will be ours." 

https://sonar21.com/ukraine-and-russia-it-is-a-math-problem/



All yellow countries are also Nazis!

ALAMO wrote:

Looks like a repetition of "great Kharkov offensive".
Wonder how far they will be let in before sky will fall on them

Have you ever been critical of Russian military performance and decisions for even a single time in the last 20 years?

Izyum front: situation near Balakleya
by 13:30 September 7, 2022

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue offensive operations in the vicinity of Balakleya. During yesterday's evening and night, Ukrainian units advanced from their positions in Ivanovka and approached the settlement of Volkhov Yar.

The data on the control of Volkhov Yar vary: there is a video with Ukrainian soldiers at the crossroads in the center of the village, but other sources claim that the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not consolidate and moved further north along the highway to Kupyansk. However, in any case, the settlement is not under the control of the RF Armed Forces.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet entered Balakleya itself: a photo with a stele at the entrance has appeared on the network, but it was taken on the westernmost outskirts in front of the Camp quarter and the village of Verbovka.

The RF Armed Forces are carrying out artillery strikes against the advancing Ukrainian forces and reserves, and the aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces are also working on targets. The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to knock out a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft, the pilot ejected and was evacuated to the rear.

At the moment, Balakleya continues to be in the operational encirclement and in the zone of fire damage of Ukrainian artillery, access roads are being shot through by the enemy to one degree or another

Archangel special forces channel with a direct contact from Balakleya writes;

Summary at 14:50

1. SOBR "Omega" and SOBR "TOLPAR" got in touch, everything is fine, they hold on (communication directly with a person from the unit)

2. Attempts to break through the eastern part of Balakleya.

3 Izyum Under Attack from HIMARS

4. The enemy used 9,000 people against the RF Armed Forces

5. Our reserves approached Balakleya, entered the battle on the outskirts.

6. The enemy pulls the maximum number of people into Balakleya

Regular wrote:Iranian drones, North Korean shells, Syrian volunteers… whats next? Chinese robots?

Papua New Guinean leather boots from Guinea pigs. Russia lost already 12 mln soldiers on the front. We need to replenish wearhouses.

FP wrote:If Russia is offering them detente again in return for abolishing sanctions and a negotiated peace in the Ukraine - then they ought to take it. It allows the West to avoid a disaster of their own making, in return for strengthening Russia. They of course don't want Russia to strengthen its economy and its position among the rest of the world, nor gain any further territory in the Ukraine - but the alternative for them is a disaster in their economies and on the front for the Ukraine so the choice ought to be a simple one. Put simply they can either walk away with a humbling, or a catastrophy.

I really hope that Russia will not take any deals by the West just for the sake of lifting sanctions. Slavic people are at times very laid back when there is a influx of products from outside, which is the main reason they have been slacking around developing everything on their own. This wasn't the case back in Soviet times as there was nothing from the West available and thus production of anything that was necessary was existing. The sanctions are very beneficiary to Russia in the long run as it is the only country on earth with all necessary resource to become 99% autonomous in it's domestic needs. It is quite a shame to be reliant on mediocre technologies from outside which you could produce yourself by your very own standards and needs, create jobs and have enough stability and prosperity to grow your population, which is and should be Russia's core goals. We have merly 144 Mln people and in theory based on resources and capability alone Russia could even be number 1 on the globus with a population thrice as big as now. I don't advocate it to be the goal or measurement by what Russia should measure itself. It needs to meet all necessary actions and economical requirements to protect itself and all it's citizens from any threat in or out site.

Sanctions are only hurting when you are relying on someone elses intellectual and physical work. We have developed this slacking attitude due to the 90's and never have we been like that before. It's a shame and we should put this disadvantageous habit to rest

limb wrote:Allegedly volkhov yar is holding, but 2 russian units are encircled and fighting to the end. Russia lacks any forces there to mount a counterattack.

When you say units, what are you talking about?
Platoons? Companies? Battalions?

For the ukrainian frontline? around 450000-500000, not 150000-200000.

Against who?
A sudden NATO invasion?

It is reported from Kharkov that a column of ambulances has lined up in the city. During the counter-offensive in the Izyum-Kupyansk direction, the formations of the Ukrainian regime suffer significant losses in manpower.
https://t.me/intelslava/36532


At the moment, the situation on the Shevchenkovo-Volkhov Yar arc has been stabilized. The enemy tried to find ways to approach Shevchenkovo, but was either destroyed or driven back. Neo-Nazis did not enter the village.
https://t.me/intelslava/36531

A number of Ukrainian resources are distributing this photo today as evidence of the allegedly destroyed Samara SOBR.

The photo itself was taken in March 2022.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/23472

Serious casualties in the Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov
https://t.me/theRightPeople1/6017?single

Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine - as of September 7, 2022

As a result of successful offensive operations in the Donetsk People's Republic, units of the Russian armed forces completely liberated the village of KODEMA from nationalists.

During the day, in the Nikolaev-Kryvyi Rih direction, due to the large losses incurred in manpower and equipment, the Ukrainian troops did not carry out offensive operations. The Russian Aerospace Forces, rocket troops and artillery continued to deliver precision strikes against units and reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction.

High-precision strikes hit the command post of the 24th mechanized brigade in the OLENOVKA region of the Nikolaev region, the manpower and military equipment of the 46th airmobile brigade in the areas of the settlements of BELOGORKA, SUKHOI STAVOK and ANDREEVKA of the Kherson region, as well as the 61st infantry brigade in the VISUNSKA regions and YAVKINO of the Nikolaev region.

An ammunition depot of the 406th artillery brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed in the area of ​​​​the settlement of PEREMOGA in the Nikolaev region as a result of a strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defense systems in the TOKAREVO area of ​​the Kherson region destroyed a Ukrainian MiG-29 and a Su-25 of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down in the KOMSOMOLSKOE area of ​​the Nikolaev region.

Due to heavy losses, the personnel of the 57th motorized infantry brigade in the areas of the settlements of BELAYA KRYNITSA, Kherson region and VELYKOYE ARTAKOVO, Mykolaiv region, refused to perform combat missions and left their positions without permission.

In total, in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction, the enemy lost 4 tanks, 6 infantry fighting vehicles and 5 other armored vehicles, 2 pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 150 military personnel per day.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.

High-precision air-based weapons in the Krivoy Rog area of ​​the Dnipropetrovsk region destroyed a fuel storage facility for military equipment of the armed forces of Ukraine with a volume of more than 5.5 thousand tons.

A ground-based high-precision weapon inflicted a defeat on the point of temporary deployment of the unit of the nationalist formation "Kraken" in the KHARKOV region. Up to 30 nationalists and 10 vehicles were destroyed.

Concentrated fire strikes on the combat positions of the 113th territorial defense brigade in the area of ​​​​the settlements of PRISHIB, YAVORSKOE and ANDREEVKA of the Kharkiv region destroyed up to 40 and wounded more than 80 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery continue to strike at military facilities on the territory of Ukraine.

During the day, six command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit in the areas of the settlements of CHUGUEV, DERGACHI, PRISHIB of the Kharkiv region, ARTYOMOVSK, SOLEDAR, KURAKHOVO of the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 47 artillery units, manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 143 districts.

In the area of ​​​​the settlement of KONSTANTINOVKA of the Donetsk People's Republic, workshops for the production of rockets for the Ukrainian Alder multiple launch rocket systems were destroyed.

Three depots of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition were also destroyed in the areas of the settlements of LIMAN in the Kharkiv region, OCHERETINO in the Donetsk People's Republic and GULAI POLE in the Zaporozhye region, as well as a counter-battery radar station manufactured by the USA in the area of ​​the settlement of ZELENODOLSK in the Dnepropetrovsk region,

In a day, air defense systems shot down 8 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of KAMIANKA, KAPITOLOVKA, IZYUM, PIMONOVKA, GREAT PASSES of the Kharkiv region, KIRILLOVKA of the Donetsk People's Republic, LYUBYMOVKA of the Zaporozhye region and GOLAYA PIER of the Kherson region.

In addition, 20 shells of the HIMARS and Vilkha multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted in the areas of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the settlements of KORSUNKA, NOVAYA KAHOVKA, GOLAYA PRISTAN in the Kherson region, as well as the Tochka-U ballistic missile in the area of ​​​​the settlement of VALUKI Luganskaya Narodnaya Republic.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 292 aircraft, 152 helicopters, 1897 unmanned aerial vehicles, 373 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4855 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 825 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3369 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 5360 units of special military vehicles.

Despite the presence of representatives of the IAEA, the Kyiv regime continued provocations at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in order to create a threat of a man-made disaster.

During the day, three artillery shelling of the city of ENERGODAR was recorded. In total, 16 shells were fired from the areas of the settlements of ILYINKA and MARGANETS, located on the opposite bank of the Kakhovka reservoir.
As a result of falling into a transformer substation, the city was left without electricity. The enemy firepower was suppressed by the return fire of Russian artillery.

The radiation situation at the Zaporozhye NPP is normal.

Belisarius wrote:
A number of Ukrainian resources are distributing this photo today as evidence of the allegedly destroyed Samara SOBR.

The photo itself was taken in March 2022.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/23472

According to UkroTwitterTrolls the whole unit was encircled and killed yesterday, now we learn that there are no killed and only a few lightly wounded. 

flamming_python wrote:

limb wrote:Allegedly volkhov yar is holding, but 2 russian units are encircled and fighting to the end. Russia lacks any forces there to mount a counterattack.

When you say units, what are you talking about?
Platoons? Companies? Battalions?

For the ukrainian frontline? around 450000-500000, not 150000-200000.

Against who?
A sudden NATO invasion?

Manpower... manpower... manpower...

The carrier (AIFV, APC) makes up at least half the firepower of an infantry unit. The UkroNazis are coming in BMP-1 and M113 or even trucks. The Russians in BMP-2, BMP-3, BMD-4 or BTR-82. Which are superior in any regard.

Don´t get me started on artillery and aircraft and how much "manpower" they can match.

On the UkroNazi side there are more and more old guys, soon women. In a few weeks we will see guys in wheelchairs. Our media will tell us that these are cool "Tactical Mobility Vehicles" and that such a dude can carry much more ammo then a guy on foot. He will get stuck as soon as he leaves the road but who cares? On the russian side most soldiers are young and in good shape. There are some older guys in the LPR and DPR armies but that´s a minority.

Tomorrow is the big meeting in Germany. New Billions will be allocated to the Kiev regime, western politicians will fill their pockets. And in a few days this small local attacks will end abruptly either why all UkroNazi fighters will be dead or their leaders will call them back into the trenches. But until then we will witness another 3.000 or 4.000 dead and more wounded.

ALAMO wrote:Again :

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/62762

Some Russkie position occupied by the Wehrmacht ... oh my bad, Ukrops.

The position is perfectly fine.
No damage. No bodies. No destruction. A few artillery rounds left.

Does it look like a conquered position to you?
Because to me looks like an abandoned one, just occupied by Ukrs.
Oh, that is how the mighty offensive is going, good to know!

No border pole this time?

From The Saker

Some *very* basic stuff about Russian defenses in the SMO

Yesterday I posted a short SITREP about the Ukrainian offensive on Balakleia. And, sure enough, there are 72 comments on this already! Many of them show a total misunderstanding of the nature of the SMO (it was a mistake for me to post a map which, obviously, most people cannot make sense of!).

So all I propose to do today is to explain something really basic about the concept of defense (in reality defensive operations are much more complex!).

First, this how Hollywood and the mainstream media present defense: you stand and fight, and if the enemy overruns your defensive position, you lost.

The reality could not be further from this silly notion.

For one thing, the USA never fought a real war, nevermind a defensive one. As for the Europeans, they are used to the kind of terrain you would have in central Europe, i.e. a terrain with a lot of geographical and topological features which favor a dug in static defense. For example, I did my basic training in an electronic warfare unit which was mostly deployed in the Swiss mountains and I can tell you that a single mountain infantry company (in some extreme cases even a well prepared platoon!) can fully lock a narrow valley or a pass against an entire mechanized/armored battalion (especially if that mountain infantry is supported by well concealed – mountains are ideal for that – and powerful long range artillery!). Much of Europe is what is called “mixed terrain” that is to say a mix of fields, forests, small town and villages, many rivers (often with steep banks and rapid currents), bigger and stronger regional towns, etc. etc. etc. In that terrain you are naturally inclined to make the best use of these features and hold on to good defensive positions. In fact, in this kind of terrain it is often impossible to deploy a full mechanized/tank brigade or division (they are too big!) and you are simply forced to fight mostly infantry battles with smaller subunits.

The Ukraine is totally different. The eastern Ukraine, the Donbass, has a lot of small towns, and this is why the Ukrainians dug in and hold towns like Avdeevka. However, once you leave that more heavily populated line of towns and villages, you mostly have open steppe with a few rivers and scattered forests, many of them pretty small. This is why only small Ukronazi units can hide in these small forests, their bigger units mostly hide inside towns and cities, basically using the local civilians as “human shields” and since these Nazis hate the local “separs” anyway – they have no illusions about the real sympathies of most Ukrainians in the south and east – they don’t care at all if scores of civilians die in Russian strikes! In fact, in a recent video Gonzalo Lira, who is currently in Kharkov, stated that since most of the anti-Russian locals are under no illusion about the inevitable outcome, they have long left Kharkov, hence the SBU’s “hunt” for “separs” and other “pigdogs” and “biomaterial” amongst the remaining population. Yet another reason for the Russian to go everything humanly possible to avoid civilian casualties!

So in the case of warfare in the Ukraine, I think that it is helpful to think of it as “a land version of a naval battle” which centers not on the control of this or that wave, but on destroying the enemy forces while not getting destroyed yourself.

The next thing which I need to bring up is force concentrations. The war in the Ukraine is more similar to soccer in which attackers and defenders fight each other all over the field than to US football in which there is a clear line of scrimmage and where everything is about “conquering” more terrain or advancing downfield. This means that there are always temporarily unoccupied “grey zones” (think of them as parts of the soccer field which happen to be empty but which could quickly become a “combat area” if a pass is made there and two players will fight each other for control of the ball).

Just these two facts very strongly suggest that a mobile defense is the way to go on such terrain. These are generalizations, of course, but by and large they apply.

Next, when you have enough manpower, you normally would organize your defense into two, more rarely three, defensive echelons so if the enemy breaks through the first line, he is faced with a second line of defense and his flanks are potentially exposed to envelopment from all sides. And just to make sure that your defenses hold, it is recommended to have a reserve force behind the 2nd line of defense ready to “plug” any “holes” and/or to be used in a counter-attack (and if things go well, this reserve for can be used as a maneuver group to counter-attack). With a few crucial exceptions, this is not the case in the Ukraine, especially not for the Russian forces who are roughly at a 1:3 numerical disadvantage. This 1:3 figure is misleading, because it ignores the kind of force ratios which can be achieved locally.

Conversely, the Russians have an advantage in 1) firepower 2) maneuverability (they can move under the protection of Russian airpower and artillery, which the Ukrainians cannot) 3) logistics 4) reach (the Russians can strike even in the far western Ukraine 5) C3ISR 6) morale and 7) training.

There is another rule of thumb which should not be taken as dogma, but which is still helpful to keep in mind: a successful attack often requires a 3:1 advantage for the attacking side. This ratio can go up to 6:1 and even higher in strongly built cities. Since the Russians already have an overall 1:3 DIS-advantage in manpower, it is quite possible that in specific segments of the front, that disadvantage might locally peak at even much worse ratios, yet another argument for the Russians to first grind down Ukronazi forces, if needed by conceding terrain, before engaging in any counter-attack/counter-offensive. And this is why

All these Russian advantages all dictate a flexible, mobile, defensive strategy to counter Ukrainian attacks.

In other words, it would be absolutely INSANE for Russians to try to hold a static defensive line at all cost just to prevent the Ukronazis to claim yet another “immense victory”. So, keeping this in might, let’s revisit the Ukrainian “counter-offensives”, bullet style.

These supposed “counter-offensives” were announced weeks in advance (which the Russians noticed)
Then the Ukrainians began by sustained artillery strikes to weaken the Russian defenses (and, thereby, indicate again to the Russians where they planned to attack).
Then the Ukrainians concentrated large forces (which the Russians saw, of course) and then threw them all into a (relatively) mass assault on what they believed were the weakest spots in the Russian defenses.
This is what happened north of Kherson and this is what is happening just north of Balakleia now. And it will happen again on other parts of the immense frontline. And, each time, the Russians will resist if/when possible, but they will quickly concede terrain and fall back if pressed hard, not only to save Russian lives (why waste them for a few trenches or buildings??) and to “pull in” the Ukrainians into a network of mobile defenses.

So how does a mobile defense work?

Basically, it uses the Russian advantages (firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale and training) to save as many Russian lives as possible while killing as many Ukrainian soldiers are possible. Why? Because while terrain can always be re-conquered, dead soldiers cannot be resurrected.

So let me repeat this again: the Russians retreating before a determined Ukrainian attack is not the exception in this war, it is the rule. So we should EXPECT the Russians to do that every time the Ukrainians launch a mass assault and sends entire battalions into the Russian meat grinder.

Some have suggested that this is bad tactic since it gives Kiev a good PSYOP/PR opportunity. To this I will reply two things:

Kiev does not need anything anchored in reality to declare “heroic victories”, they can literally take a photo in the “grey zone”, then quickly run away and present that as a huge victory (they did just that a few days ago)
Russian commanders will not sacrifice Russian soldiers for a short lived PR victory. That would be both immoral and totally self-defeating.
Think of the Russian advantages for a second (again: firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale and training) and realize that they are all dependent on the Russian ability to fight against the Ukronazis with lower manpower which, in turn, should suggest to you that the single most precious element of the Russian warfighting machine is the Russian solider: if the Russians tried to emulate Ukrainian “tactics” (i.e., throwing as much meat in the meatgrinder as available) they would quickly run out of the required manpower which, in turn, would create both military and political problems for the Kremlin.

And now, a flashback of sorts.

Remember when before the Russian SMO many observers including myself said that Russia would not invade the Ukraine simply because the Russians did kind of numbers needed to invade the Ukraine? Well, this was true then and this is STILL true!

The SMO is not a regular combined arms operation and the Russian STILL do not have the kind of manpower to “occupy the Ukraine”. However, what the Russians did is the following:

First, they gave the US/NATO (not the clowns in Kiev) and ultimatum which they knew the West would reject.
Next, they basically destroyed the Ukrainian military as a coherent whole and broke it up into smaller, uncoordinated forces. Oh sure, after a week or so, the Ukrainians still had a few aircraft left, plenty of subunits (brigades and below), some air defenses, etc. but what they lost is the ability to use all these resources as part of a single plan!
Then the Russian began slowly and methodically grinding down the huge Ukrainian force in the Donbass (that is the force whose attack the Russians preempted).
They pushed hard along the coast creating a southern front which the Ukrainians had to protect, tying down Ukrainian forces (which are still terrified by a possible Russian land and amphibious assault towards Nikolaev and Odessa).
And now they are basically waiting for the Ukrainians to come to them instead of going after the Ukrainians. Oh sure, when possible, the Russians will push forward, but they will concede terrain if/when needed.
Which leaves one last parameter: time.

Banderastan is a bloody mess, a failed state, a country 404 which is turning into a horror show run by a mix of local Nazis and US Neocons (what an ugly pair these two make!). Western governments, ALL OF THEM, are in really bad shape, all the western economies have gone over the edge and are now falling into a recession and even into a fullscale de-industrialization. The biggest western power, the USA, is run by a brain-dead old man, a former call-girl and with a Neocon ruling class which is absolutely terrified of the upcoming elections.

In sharp contrast, the Russian economy’s contraction will be in the 2% range by the end of the year, Putin is as popular as ever, as is Mishustin, the vast majority of Russians fully support the SMO and the Russian economy (a real economy, not a FIRE based one!) is flush with money and has the support of most of the planet.

So whose side is time on? I think that the answer is obvious. So the full list of Russian advantages should also include time: firepower, maneuverability, logistics, reach, C3ISR, morale, training and time.

[Sidebar: right now there is still plenty of forest and foliage in the Ukraine, but with the winter coming, this “green” cover will become very thin, making it even harder to hide for the Ukrainian forces! That is also one more reason why the Russians are now mostly waiting]

Remember how “Ze” spoke of a “million soldiers army”? Well, that is nonsense, of course, but it shows one thing:
“Ze” feels that his biggest advantage is to thrown tens and even hundred of thousands of soldiers in suicidal attacks. As for the West, it poured so much money, manpower and hardware into the country 404 that many western leaders now complain that their countries have now compromised their own reserves of weapon systems. The US alone is spending 228 million dollars PER DAY on the Ukrainian fiasco. In sharp contrast, Putin is now openly saying that the SMO has been “beneficial” for Russia!

Apparently, “Ze” and his Neocon masters want to try to “drown the Russian military in Ukrainian blood“. If you sincerely believe that this is a winning strategy, please contact me as I have some super bridges to sell you for very cheap prices :-)

Having said all that, if the next time the Russians retreat for a few kilometers you want to either freak out and declare that “all is lost” or proclaim with great gravitas that “Russia is losing the war”, by all means, feel free to do so. I will just ignore these claims simply because, frankly, I am sick and tired of repeating the same truisms over and over and over again, especially when plenty of “commentators” don’t even bother reading what I wrote, they just want to flood the comments section with their talking points!

If you rather trust Girkin-Strelkov or Arestovich that is fine by me as long as you don’t have to parrot their nonsense in the comments section which I consider as “deliberate pollution of the comments section”. That will get you banned and, once we have the “comments for signed-up commentators only” thing ready, I will simply remove you from the approved list.

Anyway, that is all I had to say for right now. I hope that the above has been helpful (though I am under no illusions: as I said, trolls don’t even bother reading what I write, they just need to populate the comments section with their slogans).

Andrei

https://thesaker.is/some-very-basic-stuff-about-russian-defenses-in-the-smo/