Europe is ready to resolve the issue of transit of goods for Kaliningrad.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that the European Commission will soon give detailed explanations on this matter.
The European Union blinked first.....
Yes, this whole shit was done by EU and that’s where Russia applied pressure. Germany is afraid for the winter
'Russia' is a generational plan and what we are seeing here is a paradigm shift. I don't expect the parish here to fully understand the gravity of these developments, as they are mostly disadvantageous to Russia, but they are YUGE
The UK + EU have abruptly broken with their 60 year long energy policy regarding Russia. They have received a slap in the face+wake up call and now realize that you can't rely on Russia for anything
. Not even the SU reached that stage of hostility at any point past the 60s-70s. The rapid re-assessment of energy security and will result in a rush to new nuclear power, coal power and renewable. This isn't a gesture, and Germany's gas storage levels standing at 56 percent (without budging) isn't 'winning' or taking 'le stand', it's a paradigm shift.
Bytheway can any of the Kremliners here explain how this type of EU escalation relates to Russia's previous 'Greater European Initiative' policies, and master strategos Putin's aim at breaking up NATO through building European energy dependancy/economic interlinking?
I wonder what's going to happen when that economic recession/depression kicks in now that the FED has clearly hit the brakes on QE. BCO at 40 USD with hardly any gas infrastructure existing in the East because grand wizard Putin thought he had his customers set in the West.
Except the budgetary windfall created by India purchasing 760k barrels of oil in May alone , offset the nonsense your talking about now
What I want to know is what the US is going to do when China transitions to a consumer economy, and the US is stuck with a strong currency that will be next to useless as it tries to rebuild a manufacturing base that it offshored itself as China transforms into the economic center of the world
And Russia isn't a generational anything, because there are no master planners in the west
Otherwise they would not be facing a recession after massive money printing, in the face of what was supposed to be the biggest economic recovery pulled off by the grandfather in US history, totay outshining the orange Manchurian candidate.
But I guess that didn't pan out, and after he becomes a lame duck
The Kremlin will run riot on the last vestiges of the US empire, with the US congress and executive branch locked in the frozen constitutional crisis that kicked off Jan 6 2020
If anything Russia dumping its oil (30 percent discount) on the cheap in India is a sign of weakness and massive hurdles down the road. A lot of this is simply the advantage that goes with pressing an advantage (or more, sneak attack).
So yes, when the Europe cuts itself off from Russia (or in some cases is cut off by Russia) Europe will pay what they have to. At least for this month/year. And after that it will be done.
Later, when they rework the supply chain to exclude Russia and still get the fuel; that's it for Russia having a major oil-export industry; unless they want to compete with KSA for position of bottom bitch to China. Spoiler alert: you do NOT want to compete with SA for being China's bottom bitch.
By merely playing this game at all Russia has now killed their reputation in debt markets. The west will take a massive one on the chin and sell off its in-country operations on the cheap; but that's the last western dollar/Euro Russia's going to see for the next 40 years
Look at the horizon 5-10 years from now. My point was about the long term trends which you conveniently chose to ignore and instead went into drone tier babbling about an impending western collapse. Russia routinely needs western investment to survive. They also need access to the same credit markets that every other nation needs access to. Only now, russia has cut themselves off. Basically forever (or until Putin and his people are gone). No, Russia won't collapse but if you want to get a glimpse of the future take a look at Cuba or Iran because that's where you are heading. The Chinese (and Indians) love the prospect. Nice friends you got there buddy!
They can pump all the oil they have, but if the only people buying is China and to a lesser extent India (and both of these have diversification policies in place and are now just topping up strategic reserves), they won't earn enough to keep extracting the same quantities. No, not this week, but down the line.
In that light the current remarks by Putin and Co. about Russia and Europe needing each other in terms of cooperation in vital areas of mutual interest isn't that strange. It's weakness bruv, not strength.
In the case of Europe, there are many ways to get oil and gas there. Here the bottleneck is the next 6 to 24 months as they haven't sufficiently prepared for this calamity. The only way for Russia to stop those ways is to openly declare war on NATO, which I don't think Putin is willing to do.
Producing nations need consumer nations too, remember. Removing European demand; where is russia going to go to replace it? India? China? If they try that, then they're now competing with Opec, as stated before. Africa? OK, have at it - if you can afford the round trips at least.
As for my other remarks, I am telling you is that all the macros are pointing at global recession/depression which will lead to severely decreased oil prices, as has happened over and over and over in history when high oil prices trigger a recession and demand destruction. If you want to call me a shill for noting that, sure whatever.
Last edited by sundoesntrise on Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:27 pm; edited 1 time in total