Russia and economic war by the west #2

I was gonna let it slide but this piece came across to me as unbelievably condescending and not only towards Russia either, but I'd expect nothing less from 'Yahoo News Japan'.

"A glass of vodka" sounds good, the only thing missing is a bear with a balalaika. But there is another cranberry in the material. John and Elena claim that they pay 11,500 rubles a month for a "communal apartment" in their "kopeck piece". This figure is obviously false: in fact, Permians pay two or even three times less for a "kopeck piece". But where did she even come from? And it was English journalists who took the official size of the minimum "communal" in England (excluding London , of course) and converted it into rubles - so that British readers would not be upset at all.

Oh yeah, bring me more how the municipal rent for an app you don't own in RUB12k is robbery. Please please do mode, Daily Mail lol1

Why the dollar is under threat, by Jay Newman for the NYPost. 03.13.2023.

The dollar was under threat, writes the New York Post. Coalitions are being formed around the world that will help defend against US sanctions. As a result, the dollar will become a regular currency, and the US will lose the ability to project its power.

Everywhere you turn, you hear talk of economic sanctions that the United States has imposed on Russia. The Central Bank of Russia, Russian banks, Russian companies, Russian oligarchs - and all those who were caught helping Moscow - have found their assets and fortunes trapped in sanctions since the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.

From Davos to Aspen, US Treasury officials are touting the unprecedented scale and reach of their powerful economic weapon.

Why not? The sanctions imposed on Russia have been truly impressive. U.S. government officials have beached scores of expensive yachts, landed private jets, frozen hundreds of millions of dollars of Russian central bank assets, and cut off Russian financial institutions from the global SWIFT financial system.

Sanctions as a measure of influence arose even in ancient times: in 432 BC, Athens crushed its rival, the city of Megara, by removing its merchants from the Athenian markets.

For the US government in the 21st century, economic sanctions have become not just second nature, they have become a central tool of foreign policy. More than ten thousand people and dozens of countries around the world fell under the sanctions.

However, more than a hundred countries did not support these anti-Russian measures. That is why Urals oil continues to arrive in Asia, Turkey and many African countries, and Ukrainian grain goes through the Black Sea to Russia.

Meanwhile, the proceeds from this illicit trade are piling up in places like Dubai, which is now swarming with sanctioned Russians looking to buy property there.

I do not mean at all that we should stop supporting Ukraine. We must support her. However, while there is indeed some merit in the idea of ​​inflicting financial damage on our sworn enemies Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, we are currently seeing coalitions being formed that allow them to circumvent existing sanctions and defend against the risks of sanctions in the future.

Much of this effort is focused on creating an alternative to the dollar as the world's main reserve currency. If you have the ability to hold savings in another currency or convert them into some physical asset such as gold or commodities, you are considered to be halfway to safety.

Take China, for example, for which the ousting and discrediting of the dollar has become a key component of the "win without a fight" strategy detailed in the book Unlimited War. While the sanctions regime was indeed necessary, it spurred Beijing on its quest to crush the dollar, and many other countries have taken note.

Although many experts continue to insist that there is no alternative to the dollar, this is not true. The dollar will dominate as long as it serves the interests of those who use it. As soon as the dollar begins to put assets at risk, alternative trading instruments will certainly appear. And they already are.

Rejection of the dollar will deal a powerful blow to America's position in the international arena. The era of unlimited dollar printing may be over, and with it our ability to buy foreign goods cheaply will be a thing of the past.

Clear evidence that a new game is beginning before our very eyes appeared in Davos in February. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan made a stunning announcement that for the first time in 48 years, the world's largest oil producer is ready to trade not only in US dollars, but also in other currencies.

This is in sharp contrast to a deal decades ago by President Richard Nixon with King Faisal that would require Saudi Arabia to accept payment for oil exclusively in dollars. (In exchange for this, Nixon promised to defend the kingdom from the aggression of the Soviet Union, Iran and Iraq.) That agreement became the basis of a strong dollar, because oil money flowed through the Federal Reserve.

Today, China imports 1.4 million barrels of oil per day from Saudi Arabia, up 39% from last year, making it the kingdom's biggest buyer. That is why both sides are trying to find cheaper alternatives to the US currency. As the Saudi company Aramco invests in a major new refinery in China, relations between the countries will only deepen in the future.

Saudi Arabia's changing position is only part of the picture. At the 2022 BRICS summit in Beijing, Vladimir Putin announced plans to expand the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and develop an alternative to international payments in dollars using a basket of currencies consisting of the Chinese yuan, Russian rubles, Indian rupees, the Brazilian real and the South African rand. For reference: The SCO is the world's largest regional organization, which represents 40% of the world's population and accounts for 30% of world GDP.

The new currency is also only part of the overall picture. China is opening up new exchanges to lure commodity trading from Western institutions such as the troubled London Bullion Exchange and the New York Energy Mercantile Exchange.

Even the Europeans have entered the game by creating their own special purpose vehicle - INSTEX - to facilitate humanitarian transactions with Iran without being tied to dollars and the SWIFT system. Of course, Russia has already declared its interest in participating in this mechanism. In March 2020, the first transaction for the sale of medical supplies to Iran to combat the spread of coronavirus took place.

Meanwhile, Russia and Iran are developing a gold-backed stablecoin, traders are already using the UAE dirham to settle oil transactions, and the Indian rupee is finally positioning itself as an international currency.

And this trend is getting worse. At the moment, the national Chinese bank transfer system CIPS (Cross-border Interbank Payment System) processes only 15,000 transactions per day - the American CHIPS system, which is preferred by Western players, processes 250,000 transactions daily, but their number is steadily growing. Russia offers its own Financial Messaging System which allows users to bypass SWIFT.

Even the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements — Hitler's banker — is slowly getting into the game as well, creating a yuan-based liquidity facility to support central banks in times of crisis. At the moment, the central banks of Chile, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore have already subscribed to it.

In the 21st century, the rate of any national currency, including the dollar, will increasingly be determined by the mechanisms of competition. If the demand for the dollar decreases, its value will decrease along with it. Everything will rise in price. Not immediately, but gradually, which will make deficit spending more costly or even impossible.

It is not a big exaggeration to imagine that the United States will at some point be faced with a debt crisis, because no one else will come to buy US bonds. And the American dollar will turn into the most ordinary currency - one of the many. Ultimately, if the dollar loses its luster, the United States will lose its ability to project its power.

To prevent this, some difficult decisions must be made today, such as reducing the number of our strategic adversaries while continuing to support allies such as Ukraine. More importantly—and more difficultly—the United States needs to clean up its own economy once and for all, finally finding a way to live within its means.

Jay Newman is a former senior portfolio manager at Elliott Management and the author of Undermoney, a thriller about illegal money circulating in the global economy.

https://inosmi.ru/20230314/dollar-261331940.html

I find it difficult for Russia to achieve this performance in 2023... the macroeconomic conditions are bad and oil has dropped a lot.

Due to the fall of the dollar, the journalist concluded, the United States will lose its weight in the international arena, and also run the risk of being in a "debt hole". To avoid this, Washington can reduce the number of strategic adversaries and "put its own economy in order once and for all."

Despite the serious difficulties caused by external pressure, the Russian industry in 2022 not only refrained from the decline (the overall production index was 99.4% by 2021), but also established a number of interesting achievements, including historical ones. Let's consider some of the most notable ones concerning quantitative indicators. At the same time, it should be understood that the number of indicators suitable for large retrospective comparisons varies by industry: in some cases, changes in the accounting system have a strong effect, and in some cases quantitative indicators are not too representative.


Fuel and energy complex

Coal production amounted to 437 million tons, which is slightly lower than the historical record of 2019 (439.5 million tons), but more than the peak of the Soviet period (425 million tons in 1988). At the same time, a historical record was set for coking coal: 105 million tons were produced (+5 million tons to the peak of 2021).

The output of diesel fuel amounted to 84.7 million tons — this is a new historical record, +4.3 million tons to the peak of 2021.

The output of motor gasoline amounted to 42.3 million tons — this is the best result since at least 1990 (40.9 million tons were produced then). The maximum level of gasoline production, oddly enough, falls on the border of the 70s and 80s (for example, in 1980 the output was 46.7 million tons).

It is noteworthy that the record output of the two main oil products was achieved against the background of a decrease in total oil refining volumes (-9 million tons by 2021).

Electricity generation amounted to 1167 billion kWh, which became a new historical maximum (+8 billion kWh by the peak of 2021). Including record figures achieved at nuclear power plants — 224 billion kWh, growth for the ninth year in a row; production at thermal power plants was the highest in recent history (737 billion kWhh).


Chemical industry

Sulfuric acid production reached 15.2 million tons, updating the historical maximum for the fifth year in a row (+0.7 million tons by 2021); the peak of the RSFSR was 12.9 million tons in 1988.

Soda ash production amounted to 3.5 million tons, which was a new maximum for the period since 1990; the peak of the RSFSR was 3.79 million tons in 1986.

The production of nitrogen fertilizers reached 11.8 million tons of active substance - this is another update of the historical maximum (+0.4 million tons by 2021), growth for the eighth year in a row; the peak of the RSFSR was 8.64 million tons in 1988.

The production of phosphorus fertilizers amounted to 4.36 million tons of active substance - this is the best result since 1991, growth for the ninth year in a row; the record of the RSFSR was 5.07 million tons in 1988.

The production of paint and varnish materials amounted to 1964 thousand tons — this is the best result since 1991, growth for the seventh year in a row.


Building materials

Cement production amounted to 60.7 million tons — this is the best result in the last 7 years; the record of the RSFSR was 84.5 million tons in 1989.

The production of precast reinforced concrete structures and products amounted to 26.5 million cubic meters — since 2009, only the output in 2013-14 was higher .

The production of ceramic floor tiles has reached 111 million square meters. m is a new historical maximum (+3 million sq. m. m to the peak of 2021).


Mechanical engineering

The production of bearings amounted to 48.3 million units — this is the best result after 2014.

The production of metal—cutting machines amounted to 7.2 thousand pieces - this is the best result since 2002 (note that operational data is usually significantly lower than the final ones).

The production of forging and pressing machines amounted to 9.8 thousand pieces (+63% by 2021!) - this is the best result since 1993.

The production of tractors amounted to 9.7 thousand units — this is the best result since 2013.


Light industry

The production of fabrics from chemical fibers amounted to 546 million square meters. is the best result since 1994 .


Food industry

Butter production amounted to 314 thousand tons, which is slightly below the level of 1996; the RSFSR record was 832.5 thousand tons in 1990.

Cheese production (without cheese products) reached 669 thousand tons — this is another historical maximum, growth for the ninth year in a row; the peak of the RSFSR was 460 thousand tons in 1989.

The production of vegetable oils reached 7.88 million tons — this is another historical maximum (+430 thousand tons to the previous record in 2020); the peak of the RSFSR was 1.35 million tons in 1968.

The production of cereals amounted to 1.768 million tons — this is the best result since 1994; in 1986, production reached 3.1 million tons.

The production of pasta and similar products reached 1,553 thousand tons (+7% by 2021) — this is definitely the best result in the last 6 years; it is difficult to make an accurate comparison with earlier indicators due to the significantly expanded composition of the grouping, but it is likely to be a long-term (if not even absolute) record.

The production of compound feeds amounted to 34.2 million tons — this is the best result since 1992, continuous growth has been going on since 2001; in 1990, production was 41 million tons.

The indicators are based on Rosstat publications ("Socio-economic situation of Russia", "Russian Statistical Yearbook"), the EMISS database (operational, updated) and archival statistical collections (many can be found here).