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    Russia and economic war by the west #2

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:08 pm

    https://ria.ru/20221104/zapad-1829063311.html

    08:00 04.11.2022 (updated: 08:12 04.11.2022)
    The West is waiting for the collapse of Russia

    Victoria Nikiforova

    According to our Western partners, we are finished. Well, that is, formally, we are still giving some signs of life. But it is worth a little more patience, tightening your belts, skipping, as the British say, another meal - and here it is happiness: the recalcitrant Russian "regime" is finally collapsing.

    "What could demolish Putin?" asks American political scientist Daniel Treisman, and scatters a whole assortment of disaster movie scenarios in front of Foreign Affairs readers. One, however, he has to step back from the threshold. There will be no military coup, "most likely". Thank you, you are our benefactor, and on this as well.

    Nevertheless, Treisman is trying to convince himself and the public that Russia's "collapse" will happen after all. It is useful to read his scripts - who, if not a strategic adversary, will see our pain points best of all?

    The main point on which the author presses is the so-called vertical of power. Centralized management, Treisman believes, may not withstand an avalanche of stresses. Here the author sketches a whole apocalypse for Russia with bold, broad strokes. At one point, the stars will converge in such a way that failures on the Ukrainian front will aggravate intra-elite conflicts, at the same time a number of failed economic decisions will be made, budget revenues will decrease, protests against mobilization will go, and in parallel - strikes and demonstrations of workers.

    Then there will be a "cascade of errors" in the control system, and the authorities will lose control over the country. This is a bad prospect for us, of course.

    But what kind of failures at the front can we talk about if Russia has already grown vast territories and millions of wonderful people? The mobilization was successful, its shortcomings will undoubtedly become an occasion for further improvements in the army, but today it has already been completed.

    As for economic decisions: our economists, to be honest, have earned themselves several Nobel Prizes over the past eight months. Of course, there were budget losses, but now we can clearly see why the "safety cushion" has been accumulating all these years.

    As for strikes and demonstrations: here the author just needs to go out into the street where he lives there, in Harvard? And watch how American workers of all skin tones buzz. He certainly did not mix up the country?

    Treisman is forced to admit: "catastrophe (in Russia) is not inevitable." But if it happens - and here our writer again dives into painfully voluptuous dreams: defeats at the front, large-scale protests, the activity of criminal groups - the author pumps everything cooler, but suddenly dries up. This whole postap will lead, in his opinion, only to a fall in Putin's rating. The President will decide not to participate in the 2024 elections, will nominate his successor, this will lead to an aggravation of the intra-elite struggle. The outcome of the 2024 elections will become unpredictable, the author sums up.

    But yes, baby, this is a democracy. The result of the elections should be unpredictable. And no, democracy is not when the US Democratic Party or its protege wins all elections. It's hard to believe this, I understand.

    Starting on a high note - now I will describe the collapse of Russia - the author, by the logic of his narrative, comes only to the well-known fact that in 2024 presidential elections will be held in Russia. Thank you, we already knew that.

    A more serious analysis of the situation - how can we still put the squeeze on Russia - is offered by Treisman's colleagues literally on the neighboring pages of Foreign Affairs. Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman inform us that "Russia will not leave without a fight."

    Through their mouths, official Washington is trying to record its victories on the economic front and calculate how long it will take for the complete and final defeat of Russia.

    First, sanctions. Yes, until they gave the effect they were designed for. However, here we must look to the future and continue to put pressure. Russia will feel the real damage from them later (we have already heard this somewhere). For now, it is necessary to continue blocking the export of technology to the country, seeking the collapse of its automotive, aircraft manufacturing and defense industries.

    Secondly, Europe's rejection of Russian energy carriers, a ban on Russian tanker insurance, and an oil price ceiling would significantly reduce budget revenues from energy sales and limit Moscow's ability to bargain with India and China.

    And finally, the outflow of programmers and techies from Russia will limit the country's competitiveness for years to come.

    “There will most likely not be a total collapse,” the authors argue. “However, Russia will plunge into decline, autarky and isolation from the world economy for many years. The Kremlin will become desperate and will ... violate the rules by which global trade operates.”

    If we translate this into human language, it turns out that Moscow will, of course, bypass Western sanctions, build and develop its commercial alliances and partnerships around the world. Along with economic influence comes political influence. By the very force of things, this will violate those notorious "rules" that Washington so insists on, because they allow him to plunder the whole world in one person.

    American authors call this the decline of Russia. To any open-minded reader, this appears to be building up an alternative center of power.

    As for the "delayed effect" of the sanctions. Yes, this should not be taken lightly. Deficiencies in high-tech industries are real and dangerous. Of course, it is impossible to replace imports in general. However, the magic schemes of parallel imports can help a lot here.

    Technical runners will, for the most part, be back. In the countries where they fled, to put it mildly, it is not very good with work, and remote work has become less and less popular lately. Together we will raise the country, circumvent sanctions, develop our high technologies.

    It is also comforting that we have heard all these mantras about the decline of Russia many times before. In 2015, Mr. Obama told the city, so to speak, and the world that "Russia's economy is in tatters." Today, this can be said more about the US economy. Let's just keep silent about the European economy - it's either good or nothing about the dead.

    The further you read your American colleagues, the more clearly you hear a purely Ukrainian question behind all their beautiful words: when is Russia already done? Well, just about, well, yesterday it should have collapsed, collapsed, decentralized, come to insignificance. But no, the stone flower does not come out.

    Americans should look at the experience of their Ukrainian brothers. For many years - in fact, it all started 30 years ago - they console themselves with the hope that Russia is about to collapse and fall apart. Under these spells, more than one generation of people living in extreme poverty has grown up. Every year they live worse and worse. Today it is simply a failed state, where the only hope for survival is the Russian humanitarian aid.

    Russia in parallel did nothing but grow rich and develop. The dogs barked - the caravan moved on.

    Now exactly the same story is happening at the global level. The masses of the former golden billion are impoverished faster than during the Great Depression. The English skip meals. The Swiss buy firewood at crazy prices. The government teaches the Estonians to save on food - for some reason, the memory is especially etched "the best drink to quench your thirst is plain water."

    All the seemingly ridiculous Davos predictions about showers once a week, 100 grams of chicken and "I have nothing, but I've never been so happy" come true with frightening speed. And even America, which is trying to prolong its prosperity at the expense of Europeans, is already being overwhelmed by a tsunami of poverty and depression.

    Traditionally, when people get poorer in the States, they vote for the Democrats - they unfasten some benefits, keep the lower classes of society afloat. Today, the US economy is so bad that people go to vote for the Republicans - in the hope that at least they will fix something.

    A fresh fact from the criminal chronicle well illustrates the scale of the economic problems of Americans. The other day, a married couple from Oklahoma committed suicide after shooting six of their children - from one to 13 years old. Relatives say that the main problem of a large family was loans - debts accumulated for 130 thousand dollars, there was no way to pay them back.

    In general, the trend is clearly visible. The worse the country lives, the louder it promises Russia decline and collapse. This applies not only to Ukraine, but also to its Western partners. At some point, they go headlong into these mriyas, just not to see what is happening in their own countries.

    In the meantime, the main economic problem in Russia, judging by the discussions in social networks, has become the question: should we spend millions of rubles on multi-day New Year's entertainment in megacities, or is it still slightly reduced?

    In this regard, it seems very wise to work out the possibility of visa-free entry into Russia for foreigners. It would be great if people could shake the propaganda noodles out of their ears for at least a few days, come to us and look at our "decline" with their own eyes.

    "Don't rush to bury us," I would like to say to our strategic partners. Not even an hour while you wait for the collapse of Russia, it will cover your own countries. What will you hope for then, for the Russian humanitarian aid? We will help, of course, not the first time. Delicious buckwheat is cooked in our field kitchens.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:16 am

    Once again the economic analysts failed and now the achievements are starting to come... no one trusts the Dollar / Euro anymore....

    Both the US and EU are using their currencies as a weapon so they can't be trusted... who knows when it will suit them to attack you.

    Is it irony that western prediction has become western projection... the same as their propaganda...
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    Post  Hole Fri Dec 02, 2022 1:16 pm

    Russia and economic war by the west #2 - Page 25 Fi5tyv10
    Russian economy is expanding/growing

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    Post  kvs Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:42 am



    Interesting observations about the reality of the western economy today based on an email from a retired engineer. Just in time,
    profit maximizing rubbish economics.

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    Post  GarryB Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:39 am

    The West is waiting for the collapse of Russia

    What really makes me laugh is that they are not waiting... they are actively doing everything in their power... flicking switches and pulling levers to try to get them to collapse and not only is it not working, it is working to undermine their own position at the head of so many international organisations... they are destroying their own currencies and now they are working against their own grip on international trade... but Russia will collapse... the next round of sanctions will do it... the previous ones were not hard enough... these ones will push them over the cliff. Razz

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    ludovicense
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    Post  ludovicense Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:41 pm

    AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎
    @AZgeopolitics
    🇪🇺🇬🇧💰🛢🇷🇺EU and UK have increased purchases of Russian LNG by 21% YoY since the beginning of 2022-Handelsblatt
    https://azgeopolitics.com/?p=3170....

    .....................

    Reality trumps speeches....

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    Post  lancelot Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:09 pm

    20% of Cyprus’ tanker fleet changes registration due to Russian oil price cap — newspaper
    It is reported that Cyprus "was among the countries asking the European Commission to commit to compensatory measures offsetting the economic impact of tankers leaving EU-based shipping registries"

    NICOSIA, December 6. /TASS/. About 20% of the Cyprus’ tanker fleet changed their registration after the European Commission announced the intention to set the price cap for the Russian oil in early October, the Cyprus Mail newspaper said on its website, citing Deputy Minister for Shipping Vasilis Demetriades.

    "In Cyprus, about 20 per cent of the registered oil tanker fleet - measured in tonnage - has left the Cyprus shipping registry since October 6," the newspaper informed. This figure corresponds to approximately 900,000 metric tons of gross tonnage, it said.

    Cyprus "was among the countries asking the European Commission to commit to compensatory measures offsetting the economic impact of tankers leaving EU-based shipping registries," the Cyprus Mail said.

    The embargo on seaborne supplies of Russian oil to EU countries became effective on December 5. The EU countries also introduced the adjustable price cap for Russian oil supplied by sea at the level of $60 a barrel. The Group of Seven member-states and Australia made a similar decision.

    https://tass.com/economy/1546469

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:03 pm

    Oil tanker jam forms off Turkey after start of Russian oil cap
    Vessels mass in Turkish waters after Ankara demands confirmation of insurance cover
    ...
    A traffic jam of oil tankers has built up in Turkish waters after western powers launched a “price cap” targeting Russian oil and as authorities in Ankara demanded insurers promise that any vessels navigating its straits were fully covered.
    ...
    Four oil industry executives said Turkey had demanded new proof of insurance in light of the price cap. A Turkish transport ministry spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
    ...
    Much of the oil on the ships off Turkey is of Kazakhstan origin, according to shipbrokers and TankerTrackers.com, which monitor global oil shipments. Kazakhstan oil arrives in Russian ports via pipeline and is not targeted by western sanctions.

    Ankara has asked all crude tankers passing through the Turkish straits to provide letters from their protection and indemnity providers, known as P&I Clubs, confirming that insurance cover would remain in place to cover incidents such as oil spills and collisions.

    But the International Group of P&I Clubs, which represents 13 mutual insurers providing liability cover to around 90 per cent of global shipping, said on Monday that the Turkish request went “well beyond” the general information normally required.
    ...
    One oil industry participant with knowledge of the situation said that Russian insurance companies had provided letters of confirmation to Turkish authorities in order to secure passage through Turkish waters. The shippers with insurance from western providers were the ones being held up, the person added.
    ...

    FT.com.

    lol!

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    Post  Hole Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:02 pm

    What did Erdogan get back for this? scratch 
    Poor Kurds.
    Better come back under the umbrella of Assad again or Erdogan will come soon and get you. With the blessing of Russia. And Iran.

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    Post  GarryB Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:37 pm

    Erdogan is enforcing the will of the west in checking for insurance details and other things... the difference was that the Russian oil carriers were ready for the extra scrutiny and paperwork and the others were not, so they are getting delayed... ahahahaha.. funny when a plan to hurt others backfires...

    Kurds have been teamed up with the US and cooperating with ISIS... screw them...

    They made their own bed... let them lie in it for a bit.

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    Post  Hole Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:11 pm

    Russia and economic war by the west #2 - Page 25 Fjwmz210
    Embarassed

    American imports from Russia dubled from Sep to Oct.
    Embarassed Embarassed

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    Post  ALAMO Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:38 pm

    Post GarryB Today at 12:37 pm

    Erdogan is enforcing the will of the west in checking for insurance details and other things... the difference was that the Russian oil carriers were ready for the extra scrutiny and paperwork and the others were not, so they are getting delayed... ahahahaha.. funny when a plan to hurt others backfires...

    Kurds have been teamed up with the US and cooperating with ISIS... screw them...

    They made their own bed... let them lie in it for a bit.


    Ooooh, it is not only that Laughing
    The insurance market was concentrated by some 90% factor in one place - City of London Twisted Evil
    Now, all this cash will go to the newly established insurer that is owned by the Russian Central Bank Laughing
    A huge (40% or so) share in the transport had Greece's fleet registered in both Greece and Cyprus.
    Now, part of that fleet is already registered under the other banner, while the remaining part will be excluded from the market.
    Russkie purchased a fleet of some 100 tankers to carry the deliveries, but those are supposed to last only until the new build fleet of Arc7 class tankers will start to be released one by one.
    And when that will happened, most of the oil and gas traffic will be carried via North, that is exclusive Russian economic zone, and anyone other than they can do a shit about that.
    Aside from that, OPEC+ already talked about further cuts in production, and Putin already made another conversation with the president of UAE. Wonder what they have been talking about? Laughing
    This thing is really getting more and more ridiculous. The more they try, the more Russia gives a ****' about that, and the more EU is going down.
    Hungarians just announced that due to EU restrictions, they can't subsidize fuel for own citizens, so the whole regulation will cease in January.

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    Post  Hole Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:42 pm

    Northern Sea route modernisation and expansion.
    New Icebreakers.
    New Oil and gas tankers that can navigate through ice.
    New pipelines.
    New oil and gas facilities.
    New insurer.
    New payment system.

    Someone could get the impression that the Russians had some sort of plan going into this...  scratch

    lol!

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    Post  Arrow Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:56 pm

    New payment system. wrote:

    Transactions in rubles Very Happy

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    Post  ALAMO Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:58 pm

    Wonder now many juans Xi brought as a gift to the Saudis ...🤣
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    Post  JohninMK Wed Dec 07, 2022 11:07 pm

    Foreign Policy: Biden's economic policies threaten a rift with Europe.

    The Anti-Inflation Act ($370 billion in subsidies for electric cars and clean energy) and the Chips and Science Act ($52 billion in subsidies for semiconductor companies) passed by Washington have caused discontent in Europe, writes FP.

    Support under both laws is aimed exclusively at manufacturers in the US. In addition, gas prices in many European countries are already 10 times higher than in America

    It has come to the point where EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton has said he will not attend the US-EU Trade and Technology Council meetings this week.
    Individual countries are also unhappy. For example, the Dutch are not happy with the US demand to stop supplying chipmaking equipment to China. Their manufacturers, ASML and ASM International, would then suffer.

    So far, Washington is limiting itself to verbal therapy but does not intend to change its laws on subsidies or its approaches to China.

    It should be noted that Europe can no longer win back the gas.,It has lost the energy war. The freebies in the form of cheap Russian gas, which served as the engine of the EU economy, are over. But the Europeans did it themselves under pressure from the United States.

    But what prevents the EU from adopting mirror laws to support its own producers? Maybe WTO rules (which the Americans comply with only when it suits them)?

    The EU's limited political subjectivity prevents it. Quod licet Jovi, non licet Bovi—what is allowed for Jupiter is not allowed for bulls.

    The collective West is not homogeneous. It is grouped around an Anglo-Saxon nucleus represented by the US, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. There are two notional belts around the core. The first has the EU, Japan, and South Korea. In the second, everyone else

    It is a world of predators. The interests of the core always prevail. Therefore, the countries in the first and second belts serve as food for the Anglo-Saxons when resources are scarce.

    That is what we are seeing in this case: an overflow of industrial companies from Europe to the jurisdiction of the United States. They are more needed there. And the Europeans will be outraged and eventually come to terms with their second-rate role.


    https://t.me/Slavyangrad/23932

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    Post  GarryB Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:15 am

    But what prevents the EU from adopting mirror laws to support its own producers? Maybe WTO rules (which the Americans comply with only when it suits them)?

    Most of their sanctions on Russia violate WTO rules as did many of Russian response measures... like the ban on food from the EU... the real problem for the EU seems to be lack of an infinite money printer that the US has... the EU can't afford to copy these measures and fund a new production base for the EU...

    So their attempts to use the WTO against the US will be as successful as their attempts to use the WTO against Russia I suspect.

    Someone could get the impression that the Russians had some sort of plan going into this...

    They probably did, but how could they possibly know it would be this easy and this effective and that the west would be so stupid...

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Dec 08, 2022 7:00 am

    Someone could get the impression that the Russians had some sort of plan going into this...

    It's pretty much just common sense
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    Post  ALAMO Thu Dec 08, 2022 7:50 am

    No bro, it is much more.
    One of that - yes.
    Two - maybe.
    Three - the accidental peak of common sense.
    But all together ... It is a hint.
    Putin was getting Russia ready for the inevitable at least since the 2007 Munich conference.



    I have just reminded myself, that it was only 2 years after meeting with GWBJr, when they called themselves "friends" and how their wives like each other ...
    We forgot so easily about the things that constitute the very roots of what follows.

    My personal opinion is that Russia lacked a year, two max to fully cut the west if needed.
    This time is passing now, and just take a look at the following events.
    The more west is fooling it's society, the more ridiculous it gets.
    The only real weapon the EU pretending rulers has is censorship.
    To cut the people from information, that they are not the only ones who think alike.
    People rally in whole of Europe other than the most Russophobic parts of it, where people are being driven by negative agenda much easier.

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    Post  Hole Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:43 pm

    Russia and economic war by the west #2 - Page 25 Fjdyti10
    lol1

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    Post  ALAMO Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:23 pm

    This is interesting.
    Some "source" in NYT citing the decryption of Ch-101 family serial No's :

    Russia and economic war by the west #2 - Page 25 Zrzut_40

    Russia and economic war by the west #2 - Page 25 Zrzut_41

    I have some comment but would like to hear from you lads.
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    Post  GarryB Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:29 pm

    You mean other than the fact that the picture shows the kh-35 and kh-31 and part of an 80mm rocket pod and not a kh-101?

    Or why three digits would be required to record if the missile was one of two different versions. 1digit in binary notation could do that.

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    Post  flamming_python Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:31 pm

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    Post  ludovicense Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:17 pm

    The West turns a fucking blind eye to the purchase because it also needs Russia. Despite the sanctions, the purchase of gas by Europe is breaking a record. Uranium for American and French nuclear power plants, mainly, are also bought in Russia. The UK clandestinely buys Russian oil, passing it from one ship to another. Russia could cut oil gas and uranium. Imagine the crisis in Europe. They would be paralyzed. Certainly Russia would also lose significant revenue.
    So one pretends not to see it and the other does too and so each one solves their problems.

    In the case of Russia specifically... by the way, she doesn't need to pretend, since it was the Europeans and Americans who imposed sanctions....

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    Russia and economic war by the west #2 - Page 25 Empty Re: Russia and economic war by the west #2

    Post  ALAMO Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:23 pm

    It is all show.
    Fog&mirrors.

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    Russia and economic war by the west #2 - Page 25 Empty Re: Russia and economic war by the west #2

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