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    Russia and economic war by the west #2

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:03 pm

    A great way to send a message to Europe is to close all Russian embassies in every EU country as well as the UK and just tell them if there needs to be any communication that Russia presumes they will hear from the US who make their decisions for them anyway.

    I think Europe thinks it will have some input regarding any negotiations between Moscow and Kiev and I think it would be very healthy for the EU to realise they will not be getting any seats at any tables.

    The Minsk fiasco proved they have no value at all in any agreements or negotiations, in fact they were detrimental at Minsk by allowing Kiev to do as it pleased without consequence while complaining that Russia did not fulfil its obligations... despite Russia having no obligations under that agreement.

    The EU and the west in general have had nothing useful to say to Russia for some time now so cutting off communication in that way would simplify things too.

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jul 20, 2022 10:45 am

    Whilst General Winter is waiting in the background to support the main Russian forces, Colonel Summer is already at work with the advance guards.

    Yup, dry weather has reduced the flow of the Rhine such that restrictions are coming into force reducing heavy barge traffic, like coal, cutting the Germans ability to feed its coal power stations.

    It looks like God has had enough. Laughing

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:00 am

    Posted here and not in an oil thread as first its not Russian and second its a direct result of sanctions.

    At some point the US may want to replenish its stocks. Maybe by then countries apart from Russia will not want to effectively give the oil to the US by accepting payment in rapidly reducing value and security US$ and at an interesting potential price.

    Jay 🇾🇪
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    The US Strategic Oil Reserve has dropped to levels not seen since 1984. The GCC is pumping at max output. Europe will likely resort to fuel rationing. The postcolonial world is ditching the US petrodollar. The end is nigh.


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    Post  LMFS Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:11 pm

    Zoo, circus or asylum? dunno

    Kissinger: The current leaders of European countries are incompetent and incapable of solving elementary problems

    https://en.topwar.ru/199290-kissindzher-nyneshnee-rukovoditeli-evropejskih-stran-nekompetentny-i-nesposobny-reshat-jelementarnye-problemy.html

    European Commissioner urges EU leaders to prepare for winter without Russian gas

    https://en.topwar.ru/199294-evrokomissar-prizval-liderov-stran-es-gotovitsja-k-zime-bez-rossijskogo-gaza.html

    EU base rate raised for the first time in 11 years

    The European Central Bank has made a procedure to raise the key rate. Moreover, this procedure was carried out for the first time since 2011.

    It is known that the base interest rate, which was zero, is now equal to 0,5%

    https://en.topwar.ru/199341-bazovaja-stavka-v-es-podnjata-vpervye-za-11-let.html

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    Post  owais.usmani Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:15 pm

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    Post  LMFS Sat Jul 23, 2022 1:10 pm

    Russia won’t supply oil to ‘price cap’ participants — head of Central Bank

    Moscow will redirect deliveries to other countries instead, Elvira Nabiullina said

    https://www.rt.com/business/559472-russia-stop-oil-exports/

    The West wanted to show everyone who is boss right? Let them prove that with oil at $300/barrel clown clown clown

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    Post  kvs Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:41 pm



    The ex-workers of the Russian branch of Wartsila, a Finnish company that pulled out of Russia, have created their own company to do
    the same work instead of dispersing.

    This is exactly what I was talking about using Argentina from 2000 as an example. The whims of employers are not sacrosanct.
    If the owner wants to move shop and scrap the factory, then he should be given a quick kick in the rear end and told to never
    come back. The concept of places of work as being the same as socks and pencils, mere property of some owner, is absurd.
    I am not advocating central planning, but work places are structures in society. I don't own my neighbourhood and don't get to
    shut it down when I move. And any layout of personal money by some owner has long ago been recovered with much profit.
    Otherwise there would not have been a business in the first place. So nobody can hide behind the sob story of the owner losing
    if the workers continue working instead of losing their jobs and continue earning the money themselves. The owner is free to
    go and start from scratch somewhere else.



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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:48 pm



    Scumbag Sholz had the gall to claim that Gazprom and Russia are deliberately not pumping gas through Nord Stream I and that
    the hijacked turbine in Canada has no role in any disruption. Maybe this sort of drivel is God's revelation for the average NATzO
    retard, but for humans with functional brains it is surreal in its level of lying. Gazprom does not have any replacement turbine
    and the one in Canada was sent there for scheduled maintenance. Sholz is claiming that Gazprom can pump regardless
    of little details like turbines used to do the actual pumping.

    So Germany is shooting itself in the head as it spews inane propaganda that only NATzO retards swallow. I am think this is
    perfectly fine. With customers like these, Russia does not need enemies.

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    Post  kvs Sat Jul 23, 2022 8:07 pm

    I forgot to add that Sholz is claiming Russia could pump extra gas through Poland and Ukraine. Sholz is a f*cking customer and
    not the seller. He does not get to decide how the supplier delivers the gas. Why should Gazprom expose itself to Polish and Ukr
    blackmail? The contracts that Germany signed with Gazprom are fully honoured by Gazprom. They do not give Sholz the freedom
    to determine which pipelines Gazprom has to use and how much extra financial burden Gazprom has to suffer to satisfy Sholz' ass
    covering over the Kanada turbine overhaul fiasco.

    Clearly EU-tard leaders have not gotten a clue yet as to their actual situation. They still think that they are masters of the universe
    and create reality at their leisure. Triumph of the Wills indeed.

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    Post  Sprut-B Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:48 am

    Gazprom has recently announced that because of some technical reasons natural gas supply via Nord Stream 1 will be reduced to 20% of the pipeline's capacity.

    https://www.rt.com/business/559618-gazprom-nord-stream-turbine/

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    Post  GarryB Tue Jul 26, 2022 1:49 pm

    Yeah, the BS they went through with the other turbine they sent for repair means they are shutting down another pump station because its turbine needs maintenance too so they are going to stop it and send it now because they expect it to take longer to process and fix because of sanctions...

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jul 29, 2022 1:00 am

    Posted on ZH by someone living in Russia

    The sanctions are doing far less than anticipated. The IMF announced yesterday that they expected 15% GDP contraction in Russia was revised to now a 6% contraction and may have to be revised. Because of the moves by Putin and the Russian National Bank, inflation that was near 20% at the start of the war dropped to 0-0.3% in May and June. Because the sanctions work so well.

    The EU is choking. Ukraine is crumbling. The latest figures state that Ukraine is having a 35-45% drop in GDP. Naftogaz just went into hard default yesterday. Ukraine sovereign has til August 9th to restructure or is also in default. Fitch downgraded them to C last week. And they devalued the currency by 25% to the dollar. I think that people are starting to turn of Zelensky. So far, from high to low, 650 government officials, MPs, heads of agencies national and regional have been sacked or arrested for "treason" and cooperating with Russia.

    Germany is in deep trouble. They had to bailout Uniper, the largest gas company in Germany. Internals say that they are planning on asking citizens to cut further so industries can have more gas to continue to function. Italy had a major drought in the Po River Valley which is a main agricultural centre which accounts for 30% of crops in Italy. Apparently, it is near a total loss. Germany was hoping to buy electricity from France, but EDF is close to bankrupt with billions in debt and 29 of France's 56 nuclear reactors are currently down due to lining issues. So, Macron is scrambling for LNG and a floating station and told industries in the South to reconvert boilers to oil instead of gas. It's still unclear if Germany's last 3 reactors will be shut or not, but they imported most uranium from Khazakstan and Russia, so they would need alternate sources. The retrofit of gas plants to to coal takes at least 6 months.

    BUT, sanctions work...

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    Post  xeno Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:23 am

    What is ZH?
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    Post  Kiko Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:28 am

    Zero Hedge, a Yanqui reasonably respected economic blog.

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    Post  PhSt Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:24 am

    I know that DW is just a NATzO Propaganda mouthpiece but what are your thoughts about the points raised in the video?

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    Post  sepheronx Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:14 am

    I think you shouldn't post such blatant garbage.

    It's trolling as far as I'm concerned.

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    Post  GarryB Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:56 pm

    The first 30 seconds tells you everything you need to know about this...

    It will struggle to export commodities? So no one will buy their oil and gas and Titanium and other products... that is not true... the west wasn't buying those things to help out Russia in effect they were abusing Russia buy paying under market rates for gas and oil and coal with long term stable contracts.

    The commodities and products and materials that Russia was exporting to the west they can now sell to the rest of the world and they will sell for less than other sellers sell for... India is buying Russian oil and if they had pipelines for gas they would be happy to buy that too because the Russians sell their products at fair rates because they have it in volume and it does not cost a lot to extract, so by keeping the price down they make money on volume which helps their customers by keeping energy cheap... the EU used to benefit from that... now it will be China and any other country that wants to trade with them... and there will be countries cueing up.

    Imports are down by half... so they are less dependent on imports... western sanctions cut access to western goods... you would think serious sanctions would reduce imports to zero, but it seems there are some that resist western sanctions... imagine that.

    When imports are blocked or just stop then the local economy will not collapse... local companies will try to meet the needs of the consumers to fill those gaps... this is a good thing for the Russian economy... like banning food imports from the EU transformed Russias capacity to feed itself and the rest of the world.

    We pulled out of their economy... our companies that were operating in Russia have now gone, western investment is pulling out too.

    But even then the sky is not falling... many of those companies that are leaving like McDonalds can't remove all their factories and equipment and end up having to sell off their production capacity and stock and equipment and businesses to locals who can pay cents in the dollar for everything and then restart production and work and change the brand names and product names...

    Those western companies were not in Russia to help Russia... this was not charity... they were making good money, so now they are not, and some Russians are going to make that money instead.

    Again... good for Russia.

    Western countries spent 30 years and billions of dollars trying to get into that market and create market share and now they are selling it all off despite it being very profitable for them because they are being bullied by western governments...

    Hilarious... and not the end of the world for the Russian economy.

    BTW Yale... WTF would they know about business... look at the state western economies are in... they should be the first against the wall to be shot when the revolution starts...

    That was my take from the first 33 seconds of that video and I could not be bothered watching the rest...

    It seems Yale has to support the team and justify its existence as a yes man western think tank that reinforces the stupid things they are doing because if you are not with the team you are against it...

    Couldn't possibly be pro west if you think they are doing badly... hahaha... idiots.

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    Post  LMFS Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:31 pm

    PhSt wrote:I know that DW is just a NATzO Propaganda mouthpiece but what are your thoughts about the points raised in the video?

    My thought is that I am not going to lose precious moments of my life on DW excrement What a Face

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    Post  LMFS Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:18 pm

    Eurasia & Multipolarity
    January 2023 in Germany:
    - Dad, why is it so cold in the house?
    - Because it's war.
    - Did someone attack us?
    - No, Russia attacked Ukraine.
    - So why is it cold here?
    - Because we imposed sanctions on Russia.
    - Why?
    - To make the Russians feel bad.
    - Dad, are we Russians?
    😂

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    Post  andalusia Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:45 am

    When Russia can improve their naval projection power, it needs to bring the oceans back to the commons I believe that would have a lot of supporters around the world:

    https://www.newagebd.net/article/177266/how-private-corps-stole-sea-from-commons?fbclid=IwAR0YlO4v_hk2EBgu1CHz_twuqAGNJN9iVnD2agHI5wsw43aYpMdIKeyADCo
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    Post  LMFS Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:31 pm

    andalusia wrote:When Russia can improve their naval projection power, it needs to bring the oceans back to the commons I believe that would have a lot of supporters around the world:

    https://www.newagebd.net/article/177266/how-private-corps-stole-sea-from-commons?fbclid=IwAR0YlO4v_hk2EBgu1CHz_twuqAGNJN9iVnD2agHI5wsw43aYpMdIKeyADCo

    With the increasing Western provocations against China, new Russian doctrine plus the return of many SSN, Kuznetsov, Nakhimov and the arrival of Tsirkon, I think it is obvious that the time of joint VMF and PLAN operations to police open seas and protect SLOCs has come.

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    Post  owais.usmani Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:44 pm

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:21 am

    Ron Bousso
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    Rhine water levels are falling further and it looks increasingly likely that refineries and petchem plants along the major barge trade route will have to cut production as a result



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    Post  JohninMK Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:44 am

    Fancy a laugh? This is by Alastair Crooke, quite a good commentator.


    Does the ECB drill for oil? Does the ECB run a farm? Does the ECB drive a truck? Does the ECB pilot a cargo vessel across the Pacific or load freight at the Port of Los Angeles?

    The EU has begun its retreat: It has taken the first steps in unraveling energy and food sanctions on Russia. Will other steps follow? Or will the pan-West, Russia-phobic axis strike back with further belligerence? Nothing is settled yet, but were the retreat to continue, and the separate Ukraine grain export accord hold together, it will be generally good news for the Region.

    The bigger issue is of whether – even a more substantive EU retreat ensues – this will make a difference to the larger economic paradigm. Unfortunately, the answer is very probably not.

    The EU’s seventh package of sanctions on Russia, whilst ostensibly posing as an increase in sanctions (which it is for certain gold imports into the EU that have no real impact on Russia) – and with a small extension of the list of controlled (mainly tech) items – the package represents, in reality, a concealed retreat.

    For, as one digs deeper, the package substantially alleviates sanctions in key areas. Firstly, the package ‘clarifies’ aviation measures (Comment: Though opaquely worded, this passage seems to be quietly permitting the export of spare Airbus parts to Russian aviation fleets). The package says that to avoid any negative consequences for food and energy security around the world – and for clarity – the EU extends the exemption to transport of agricultural products, (food) and fertiliser exports and the transport of oil from Russia to third countries. Furthermore, it exempts third party purchases of pharmaceutical and medical products from Russia.

    The EU likes to claim that their sanctions never included food and fertilisers, and that the suggestion that they did, is propaganda. Their argument, however, is disingenuous. The EU sanctions’ legalistic wording was so open, so opaque, that it was not clear whether they did, or didn’t. Trading companies understandably feared retroactive fines for breaking sanctions. They had the bitter experience of the US Treasury refusing to say explicitly what was allowed, and which not; and in the case of Iran, out of the blue, hitting European banks with monstrous fines.

    The explicitness matters: Food, agricultural products and fertiliser transported to Third Countries are exempt from sanctions. States like Egypt can now import wheat from Ukraine, Russia – and effectively from Belarus too, (since it now forms a single market with Russia).

    Equally, the third country transport of Russian oil to states such as China, India, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are now explicitly exempt.

    Here is another disingenuity – if not hypocrisy – implicit within this exemption. The EU, all along, has been virtue signalling how they would ban Russian energy sales to the EU – and how that the resulting loss of revenue to Russia, would starve, and cripple Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.

    Well, first Russia insisted on payment for its gas in roubles. The EU said ‘no’, but then relented. Then the EU targeted Russian oil, and the G7 touted a ‘cap’ on oil prices. But states such as China and India said ‘no’. And now, the EU has relented on the transport of Russian oil by Third Parties. (Greek and Cypriot tanker owners had already arm-twisted their governments into insisting on an earlier exemption, for them).

    What is going on? The oil market has been volatile recently, as the US has tried to manipulate the ‘paper market’ (which is way larger than the physical market), in order to contrive a dip in prices in the Bent and WTI index. Again, the object has been to hurt Russia – and to facilitate Yellen’s ‘oil cap’ by getting prices closer to the $60 a barrel on which Yellen has set her capping hopes.

    It hasn’t worked, and it seems the White House just wants oil prices down – full stop. Even the hawk, Victoria Nuland, said Friday that the US and its allies need Russian oil supplies to enter world markets, otherwise the cost of this resource will start to rise again: “We need to see the presence of Russian oil on the world market, otherwise the shortage of oil will lead to a new rise in prices.”

    Realism seeps in! Putin achieves all his key demands in respect to the food crisis – and today, is even selling a slightly increased volume of oil.

    The price of oil will indeed fluctuate. It will respond however, more to the effects arising from depth reached in the coming recession, than on market manipulation, and Yellen’s price capping efforts. The western Establishment is still trying to get its head around the new reality that commodities are seen to have innate value, whereas fiat currencies such as the dollar don’t. The new commodity era represents a psychological global shift towards intrinsic value, at time of rising inflation.

    And where will that ‘now exempted’ Russian oil transit, be headed? Why, to the EU (largely). This is where the disingenuity becomes evident: India buys Russian oil, runs it through its refineries, and sells ‘Indian refined products’ where? To the EU. Ditto for other cargos. Ditto for Saudi Arabia. Those vessels’ bills of lading won’t mention Russia as they arrive at their EU destination.

    In short, the EU is quietly facilitating the bypass of its own proclaimed ‘crushing’ sanctions regime.

    Might this this small step of retreat however, tip the wind out from the swelling sail of economic crisis? No. There are two major sources of inflation. There’s the supply side and the demand side. Either one of them can drive inflation, but they’re very, very different in terms of how they work.

    The supply side, as the name implies, comes from input. The supply just isn’t there. Farm prices are going up because fertilizer prices are going up, partly because of the war in Ukraine. Oil prices are going up because there’s a global shortage, and there’s disruption in supply chains.

    So what can the ECB do about that? Nothing. Does the ECB drill for oil? Does the ECB run a farm? Does the ECB drive a truck? Does the ECB pilot a cargo vessel across the Pacific or load freight at the Port of Los Angeles?

    No, the Central Bankers do none of those things, and so they can’t fix that part of the problem. Raising interest rates has no impact on the supply side shortages we’re seeing. And that’s the direction from which inflation – that is driving European recession – is blowing.

    https://geopolitics.co/2022/08/05/the-eu-has-begun-its-retreat/

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