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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Thu May 12, 2022 2:39 pm

    Scorpius wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Scorpius wrote:
    JohninMK wrote: Well Moscow is only 3 months into its foray into the Ukraine and the lowest estimates show they have lost around 15K troops, its still the honeymoon period , but when the Russian public start to wake up to the fact that they have lost so many of their fathers, brothers and sons then expect outrage.

    Please tell this person a few facts:
    1. Rumors about the alleged 15,000 KIA among the Russian armed Forces are nonsense. By all my estimates, this figure is at least three-five times too high.
    2. Russia lost 16 thousand people in road accidents in 2020 alone. No one noticed it.
    3. Over the past 2 years, Russia has lost 370 thousand people from coronavirus. The United States lost about a million for the same reasons. Has anyone noticed these losses?
    4. Even if we imagine that Russia has lost 15 thousand in 3 months, Russia has another 265,000 military personnel only in the ground forces, plus an unknown number of civilians who are in the "hot" mobilization reserve (probably several tens of thousands). At this rate, Russia can freely afford a continuous war for at least 5-6 years without replenishing the loss of personnel. Taking into account the fact that the population under the age of 18 in Russia is now 22.4% - in the next 5-6 years, about 30 million people will reach the age and competence to conduct combat operations, among which at least 300 thousand will definitely be able to become combatants.

    If I am not mistaken Moscow confirmed its self a few months back they lost around 4k, so saying the figure is 3 or 5 times to high is immense BS, your figures are beyond wrong
    BS - these are the statements that you give here. At the end of March, the Ministry of Defense made a statement about the number of losses in Ukraine: it was 1351 KIA and 3825 WIA. March 25 is 30 calendar days away from February 24. March 25 is 48 calendar days away from May 12. Even if we ASSUME that the intensity of losses did not decrease compared to the first days of the military operation, then in the period from March 25 to May 12, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could have suffered losses in the amount of 2,162 KIA and 6,120 WIA. The total total from February 24 to May 12: 3513 KIA and 9945 WIA. Thus, there is no question of any "losses in three months of war in Ukraine are higher than in 10 years in Afghanistan". The losses of the USSR in Afghanistan have long been known: 15031 KIA and 53752 WIA. And I say this with an effort not paying attention to the fact that the comparison with Afghanistan is an impudent distortion, because there is absolutely nothing in common between these two operations.

    Ahh now I remember things. My estimate into the 3ks would therefore have been too high. Which makes sense. Because the operation has become far less "gung ho" than in the earliest times.

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    Post  flamming_python Thu May 12, 2022 2:50 pm

    There have been 18 servicemen confirmed KIA in Yakutia as of 1-2 weeks ago. Yakutia is a pretty middle of the road region regarding security services and military participation. It's a far-flung Siberian province with considerably above average salaries but a miserable climate and sparse infrastructure.

    Anyway, Yakutia has a population of nearly a million

    Now lets take those 18 and add another 4-5 to represent those MIA, whose fate the Rus MoD cannot confirm but who are in fact killed (artillery, their bodies having being buried by the Ukrainians themselves somewhere, taken prisoner and killed, or whatever)
    Now let's also add another 2-3 to assume that the figure of 18 is only for the MoD (I don't know this for sure), but that there would also be losses among Rosgvardia, FSB on vacation, or volunteers in Kadyrov's units

    So 18 + 5 + 3 = 26

    Now we have to work out the co-efficient of Yakutia's population to Russia's as a whole.
    Going by the 2018 estimate it has 964,330 people, while Russia per the preliminary results of last year's census has 147 million people.
    So 147 million/964,330 = 152.4
    Now we take the 26 and multiply it by 152.4 to get 3962.

    This 3962 is the KIA figure for all of Russia extrapolated from the Yakutia results and some generous allowances for unconfirmed killed and KIA in other branches. I'd say this estimate tends towards the upper bound. In reality, the KIA can be anything from 3200-4200 or so right now.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Thu May 12, 2022 2:57 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  flamming_python Thu May 12, 2022 2:56 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Scorpius wrote:
    JohninMK wrote: Well Moscow is only 3 months into its foray into the Ukraine and the lowest estimates show they have lost around 15K troops, its still the honeymoon period , but when the Russian public start to wake up to the fact that they have lost so many of their fathers, brothers and sons then expect outrage.

    Please tell this person a few facts:
    1. Rumors about the alleged 15,000 KIA among the Russian armed Forces are nonsense. By all my estimates, this figure is at least three-five times too high.
    2. Russia lost 16 thousand people in road accidents in 2020 alone. No one noticed it.
    3. Over the past 2 years, Russia has lost 370 thousand people from coronavirus. The United States lost about a million for the same reasons. Has anyone noticed these losses?
    4. Even if we imagine that Russia has lost 15 thousand in 3 months, Russia has another 265,000 military personnel only in the ground forces, plus an unknown number of civilians who are in the "hot" mobilization reserve (probably several tens of thousands). At this rate, Russia can freely afford a continuous war for at least 5-6 years without replenishing the loss of personnel. Taking into account the fact that the population under the age of 18 in Russia is now 22.4% - in the next 5-6 years, about 30 million people will reach the age and competence to conduct combat operations, among which at least 300 thousand will definitely be able to become combatants.

    If I am not mistaken Moscow confirmed its self a few months back they lost around 4k, so saying the figure is 3 or 5 times to high is immense BS, your figures are beyond wrong

    You are very much mistaken as there has been no such 'admission'.

    My own estimates were always around 4k KIA for Russian forces (of all types), and 5k for the LDNR. With above 70k KIA for the Ukrainians by now
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Thu May 12, 2022 2:59 pm

    70k for Ukrs?

    Why so ridiculously high? What a Face
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    Post  ALAMO Thu May 12, 2022 3:04 pm

    flamming_python wrote:There have been 18 servicemen confirmed KIA in Yakutia as of 1-2 weeks ago. Yakutia is a pretty middle of the road region regarding security services and military participation. It's a far-flung Siberian province with considerably above average salaries but a miserable climate and sparse infrastructure.
    Anyway, Yakutia has a population of nearly a million
    Now lets take those 18 and add another 4-5 to represent those MIA, whose fate the Rus MoD cannot confirm but who are in fact killed (artillery, their bodies having being buried by the Ukrainians themselves somewhere, taken prisoner and killed, or whatever)
    Now let's also add another 2-3 to assume that the figure of 18 is only for the MoD (I don't know this for sure), but that there would also be losses among Rosgvardia, FSB on vacation, or volunteers in Kadyrov's units
    So 18 + 5 + 3 = 26
    Now we have to work out the co-efficient of Yakutia's population to Russia's as a whole.
    Going by the 2018 estimate it has 964,330 people, while Russia per the preliminary results of last year's census has 147 million people.
    So 147 million/964,330 = 152.4
    Now we take the 26 and multiply it by 152.4 to get 3962.
    This 3962 is the KIA figure for all of Russia extrapolated from the Yakutia results and some generous allowances for unconfirmed killed and KIA in other branches. I'd say this estimate tends towards the upper bound. In reality, the KIA can be anything from 3200-4200 or so right now.

    This is a very good beginning but can be easily spoiled.
    Yakuts can represent a higher percentage of armed forces personnel.
    Nothing bizarre, for pre-war Poland, the Tatar population was overrepresented in the Polish Army by a factor of 3 if I remember.
    I suppose that very same can be applied to Buryats, Yakuts, and a few other Russian nations. Like Chechens.
    Anyway, I consider the figure about the same level.
    Data spread among the western public are pure bullshit.

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    Post  flamming_python Thu May 12, 2022 3:04 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:70k for Ukrs?

    Why so ridiculously  high? What a Face

    Just the amount of cruise missiles, artillery, bombs being arrayed at them every day

    You can go by the Rus MoD reports of what has been taken out by every morning and evening, but honestly you don't have to

    In Mariupol alone they've lost some 5-6k
    And here we have not only Mariupol, but the Kharkov area, Kiev area, Sumy & Chernigov, the Donbass, Kherson & Nikolayev, strikes against Odessa/Lvov/Dnepro and across the country

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    Post  flamming_python Thu May 12, 2022 3:07 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:There have been 18 servicemen confirmed KIA in Yakutia as of 1-2 weeks ago. Yakutia is a pretty middle of the road region regarding security services and military participation. It's a far-flung Siberian province with considerably above average salaries but a miserable climate and sparse infrastructure.
    Anyway, Yakutia has a population of nearly a million
    Now lets take those 18 and add another 4-5 to represent those MIA, whose fate the Rus MoD cannot confirm but who are in fact killed (artillery, their bodies having being buried by the Ukrainians themselves somewhere, taken prisoner and killed, or whatever)
    Now let's also add another 2-3 to assume that the figure of 18 is only for the MoD (I don't know this for sure), but that there would also be losses among Rosgvardia, FSB on vacation, or volunteers in Kadyrov's units
    So 18 + 5 + 3 = 26
    Now we have to work out the co-efficient of Yakutia's population to Russia's as a whole.
    Going by the 2018 estimate it has 964,330 people, while Russia per the preliminary results of last year's census has 147 million people.
    So 147 million/964,330 = 152.4
    Now we take the 26 and multiply it by 152.4 to get 3962.
    This 3962 is the KIA figure for all of Russia extrapolated from the Yakutia results and some generous allowances for unconfirmed killed and KIA in other branches. I'd say this estimate tends towards the upper bound. In reality, the KIA can be anything from 3200-4200 or so right now.

    This is a very good beginning but can be easily spoiled.
    Yakuts can represent a higher percentage of armed forces personnel.
    Nothing bizarre, for pre-war Poland, the Tatar population was overrepresented in the Polish Army by a factor of 3 if I remember.
    I suppose that very same can be applied to Buryats, Yakuts, and a few other Russian nations. Like Chechens.
    Anyway, I consider the figure about the same level.
    Data spread among the western public are pure bullshit.

    Yakuts don't overrepresent the Russian military significantly from my knowledge, that's why they're a good choice. They're a typical Siberian region in terms of representation

    Over-representation is from Caucasus nations of all stripes (except Chechens, but they are big in Rosgvardia and some other organs), Buryats yes, Tuvans

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    Post  Mir Thu May 12, 2022 3:13 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:

    If I am not mistaken Moscow confirmed its self a few months back they lost around 4k, so saying the figure is 3 or 5 times to high is immense BS, your figures are beyond wrong

    A few months back the conflict hasn't even started yet! The Russians lost about 500 within the first week or so but since then casualties were relatively low. On the flip side casualty rates are very bad for the Ukrs.

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    Post  VARGR198 Thu May 12, 2022 3:44 pm

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    Post  Firebird Thu May 12, 2022 3:55 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:There have been 18 servicemen confirmed KIA in Yakutia as of 1-2 weeks ago. Yakutia is a pretty middle of the road region regarding security services and military participation. It's a far-flung Siberian province with considerably above average salaries but a miserable climate and sparse infrastructure.
    Anyway, Yakutia has a population of nearly a million
    Now lets take those 18 and add another 4-5 to represent those MIA, whose fate the Rus MoD cannot confirm but who are in fact killed (artillery, their bodies having being buried by the Ukrainians themselves somewhere, taken prisoner and killed, or whatever)
    Now let's also add another 2-3 to assume that the figure of 18 is only for the MoD (I don't know this for sure), but that there would also be losses among Rosgvardia, FSB on vacation, or volunteers in Kadyrov's units
    So 18 + 5 + 3 = 26
    Now we have to work out the co-efficient of Yakutia's population to Russia's as a whole.
    Going by the 2018 estimate it has 964,330 people, while Russia per the preliminary results of last year's census has 147 million people.
    So 147 million/964,330 = 152.4
    Now we take the 26 and multiply it by 152.4 to get 3962.
    This 3962 is the KIA figure for all of Russia extrapolated from the Yakutia results and some generous allowances for unconfirmed killed and KIA in other branches. I'd say this estimate tends towards the upper bound. In reality, the KIA can be anything from 3200-4200 or so right now.

    This is a very good beginning but can be easily spoiled.
    Yakuts can represent a higher percentage of armed forces personnel.
    Nothing bizarre, for pre-war Poland, the Tatar population was overrepresented in the Polish Army by a factor of 3 if I remember.
    I suppose that very same can be applied to Buryats, Yakuts, and a few other Russian nations. Like Chechens.
    Anyway, I consider the figure about the same level.
    Data spread among the western public are pure bullshit.

    Yep I know a few Yakutians. THey are ALL military, or the older ones are ex military.
    Absolutely fanatical about military stuff and patriotism. Often elite units, multiple generations etc. These are mixed indigenous/ethnic Russians.
    So yes the 18 would be higher than the general population... from my experiences.

    The Donbass republics would have a higher loss ratio than Ru Fedn soldiers. Probably because they are very aggressive vs the "wait it out" tactics of the Fedn troops.

    However, the Donbass Reps. have been working since Feb 2022 with masses of Russian troops with them.
    So the ratio should be vastly lower than say in 2014 hostilities.
    I can't remember if the Ru MOD stats re KIA etc were "Russian Fedn and allies" or just Russian Fedn.
    I think it was the former.

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    Post  ALAMO Thu May 12, 2022 4:05 pm

    Firebird wrote:
    The Donbass republics would have a higher loss ratio than Ru Fedn soldiers. Probably because they are very aggressive vs the "wait it out" tactics of the Fedn troops.

    Well, considering that there are hundreds of civilians dead in both republics, they don't have the privilege to "wait it out".
    We talk about their wives, parents, and children dying there.
    They will be aggressive and push forward.
    I am actually surprised how humble they behave considering the last 8 years.

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    Post  Firebird Thu May 12, 2022 4:14 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    Firebird wrote:
    The Donbass republics would have a higher loss ratio than Ru Fedn soldiers. Probably because they are very aggressive vs the "wait it out" tactics of the Fedn troops.

    Well, considering that there are hundreds of civilians dead in both republics, they don't have the privilege to "wait it out".
    We talk about their wives, parents, and children dying there.
    They will be aggressive and push forward.
    I am actually surprised how humble they behave considering the last 8 years.

    I can understand why they would want to kill every last one of the Bandera-trash.
    (Infact I cannot understand why Russia didn't intervene in 2014 - as my posts back then say).
    The notion that the D+L Reps are more on the front foot ie aggressive is just something I have read.

    The potential problem with that is that they seem to have a higher casualty than Fedn troops.
    But who knows? All we can  know with good reason is that Russian and Lugansk and Donetsk KIA are vastly lower than Bandera-trash. And 10-1 or substantially more seems about right as a ratio.


    Last edited by Firebird on Thu May 12, 2022 4:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Regular Thu May 12, 2022 4:29 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Just the amount of cruise missiles, artillery, bombs being arrayed at them every day

    You can go by the Rus MoD reports of what has been taken out by every morning and evening, but honestly you don't have to

    In Mariupol alone they've lost some 5-6k
    And here we have not only Mariupol, but the Kharkov area, Kiev area, Sumy & Chernigov, the Donbass, Kherson & Nikolayev, strikes against Odessa/Lvov/Dnepro and across the country

    Doubt 70k even with injured/missing teroboron at this point.

    There was no another Mariupol yet and those cruise missile strikes rarely target Ukrainian formations and just wreck infrastructure, usually at night when collateral damage is minimal.

    Battles so far seem to be sporadic and still small in size.

    Not saying this number is not possible in near future, but so far, there isn't much going on such a scale.

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    Post  Firebird Thu May 12, 2022 4:36 pm

    Regular wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Just the amount of cruise missiles, artillery, bombs being arrayed at them every day

    You can go by the Rus MoD reports of what has been taken out by every morning and evening, but honestly you don't have to

    In Mariupol alone they've lost some 5-6k
    And here we have not only Mariupol, but the Kharkov area, Kiev area, Sumy & Chernigov, the Donbass, Kherson & Nikolayev, strikes against Odessa/Lvov/Dnepro and across the country

    Doubt 70k even with injured/missing teroboron at this point.

    There was no another Mariupol yet and those cruise missile strikes rarely target Ukrainian formations and just wreck infrastructure, usually at night when collateral damage is minimal.

    Battles so far seem to be sporadic and still small in size.

    Not saying this number is not possible in near future, but so far, there isn't much going on such a scale.


    But there have been quite a few barrack strikes killing 200,300 even maybe 500 at a time.
    Aren't Ru MOD claiming 300 or 350 or more Banderites killed per day?

    Plus if you look at 2500 bits of Banderite military heavy equipment lost, isn't the general rule of thumb up to 10 troops per heavy vehicle.

    This would all suggest serious Bandera-shite losses.

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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Thu May 12, 2022 4:38 pm

    How many troops are going to be freed when Azovstal falls?
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    Post  flamming_python Thu May 12, 2022 4:52 pm

    Regular wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Just the amount of cruise missiles, artillery, bombs being arrayed at them every day

    You can go by the Rus MoD reports of what has been taken out by every morning and evening, but honestly you don't have to

    In Mariupol alone they've lost some 5-6k
    And here we have not only Mariupol, but the Kharkov area, Kiev area, Sumy & Chernigov, the Donbass, Kherson & Nikolayev, strikes against Odessa/Lvov/Dnepro and across the country

    Doubt 70k even with injured/missing teroboron at this point.

    There was no another Mariupol yet and those cruise missile strikes rarely target Ukrainian formations and just wreck infrastructure, usually at night when collateral damage is minimal.

    Battles so far seem to be sporadic and still small in size.

    Not saying this number is not possible in near future, but so far, there isn't much going on such a scale.


    I remember how Podolyaka was talking about even a middle-sized village in the Sumy or Chernigov regions, where there is someone being buried almost every day

    And we're talking about just those killed that have bodies returned for burial. How many by now have been entombed in bunkers or lost or buried by the LDNR or Russian forces themselves?

    At the end of the day it's impossible to say how many have been killed.

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    Post  ALAMO Thu May 12, 2022 4:53 pm

    Firebird wrote:
    But there have been quite a few barrack strikes killing 200,300 even maybe 500 at a time.
    Aren't Ru MOD claiming 300 or 350 or more Banderites killed per day?
    Plus if you look at 2500 bits of Banderite military heavy equipment lost, isn't the general rule of thumb up to 10 troops per heavy vehicle.
    This would all suggest serious Bandera-shite losses.

    Yes, but that adds up perfectly to the official data.
    They are closing to 30k KIA.
    Considering that the first phase was performed in a way to spare Ukro soldiers as much as possible - to the level of absurd from the military point of view - that is all gone.
    For at least 2 months, they are really killing 300-500 daily.
    Numbers adds. The ones that Russkies provide.

    And something funny.
    Postal stamp from the Polish Post.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 30 Image10

    I see one problem here - lots of Poles can split on the the wrong side ...


    Last edited by ALAMO on Thu May 12, 2022 4:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Hole Thu May 12, 2022 4:56 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How many troops are going to be freed when Azovstal  falls?

    Maybe 500 to 1.000.
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    Post  Hole Thu May 12, 2022 5:02 pm

    JohninMK wrote:M777 starting to appear

    Ukraine Weapons Tracker
    @UAWeapons
    ·
    56m
    #Ukraine: We also can get a brief look at what ammunition is being used with Ukrainian M777A2 howitzers - M795 and M549A1 RAP projectiles with impressive ranges of 22.5 km and 30km+ for the latter due to the presence of a rocket motor.



    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 30 FSgUNOJXoAUS_8Z?format=jpg&name=small


    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524474300874604545

    So there is one pic of one howitzer somewhere and the propaganda machine goes into overdrive. That shows you how desperate the situation is for the Banderites and their western lovers. Then all the maps are shown what the gun can hit...

    In the time this one gun was brought into the area (I doubt it is far east of Dnjepropetrovsk) the Nazis lost roughly 200 guns. In the pic is enough ammo for maybe half an hour. And then? It is 155mm. No stock available at the front, all has to be brought in from far away in the west. If the gun gets damaged there will be no parts available.

    Even if the gun works and is somewhere near the frontline, one gun can achieve nothing. For this gun there are 25 guns on the other side.

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    Post  Hole Thu May 12, 2022 5:04 pm

    VARGR198 wrote:

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 30 Fsjc0410
    German army in 1945 looked better.

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    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Thu May 12, 2022 5:04 pm

    I wonder why they never tried big attack in the south? West of Novoselka amd east of Gulyaipole. Terrain there heavily favours Russians, being mostly flat and barren. No major cities as well.
    Hole
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    Post  Hole Thu May 12, 2022 5:05 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 30 Fsj2kq10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 30 Fsj2lb10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 30 Fsji9g10
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Thu May 12, 2022 5:05 pm

    By MOD estimates the VSU, Teraborona and Nazi units has cumulatively suffered up to 50k casualties

    The make up of wounded to dead will be skewed because of Ukrainian suicide and kamikaze tactics

    They will suffer higher deaths due to irresponsible policies

    Russia needs to rotate its forces, and give them rest and short tours

    That way it's efficient for the type of fighting ongoing now

    At some point the deployment time can be longer once the Donetsk grouping is wiped out and the combat intensity decreases dramatically

    I am 100% convinced of the Russian strategy , whereas in the beginning it was difficult to ascertain and emotions ran high

    By now it's easier to see the trajectory

    Also, Kremlin waiting until 2022 was a genius move, listening to some Yankees and Cubans on the forum
    Is ridiculous

    The Ruble is about to cross the 60 mark Rubicon into 50s territory

    Russia has managed every aspect of this correctly and with great result

    With our economy strengthening to pre 2014 levels and Ukraine bled white

    It turned out as we needed

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    Post  Hole Thu May 12, 2022 5:07 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 30 Fsj0y410
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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 30 Fsjw0i10

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    Post  diabetus Thu May 12, 2022 5:08 pm

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1156_Precision_Guidance_Kit

    Russia would be wise to develop something similar for artillery.

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    Post  Sponsored content


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