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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14

    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Mon May 02, 2022 12:34 pm

    In short, Yuri said in his last video address that Ukraine will cease to exist as a state during this decade. According to Yuri, Moscow will integrate all the conquered territories into Russia.
    Ukraine on 30.04. turned off the Internet to the Kherson region and work is underway that the Kherson region gets the Internet from Russia.. The Kherson and Zaporizhia regions will also use ruble as a means of payment, salaries and pensions are paid by Russia.


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    Post  eridan Mon May 02, 2022 1:18 pm

    For some days now I haven't seen the Russian MoD release a tally of the number of Ukraine's troops killed. Have they stopped publishing those? Daily MoD reports include tallies of hardware but not the troops.
    Yet the troops too are mentioned in piecemeal fashion - XXX more killed within the last day. Obviously the MoD is tracking those too but for some reason they're not releasing updated tallies...

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Mon May 02, 2022 1:25 pm

    Several cruise missile strikes this morning again. The Zatoka bridge is supposedly completely wrecked now, as in it has to be rebuilt from scratch.

    By the way, they got weapons/ammo and fuel across that bridge, from RO/BG, but I am also increasingly convinced that the stuff they've been smuggling out went that way too.

    Izmail on the Danube is the only "international" port they have that isn't blocked.

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Mon May 02, 2022 1:30 pm

    eridan wrote:For some days now I haven't seen the Russian MoD release a tally of the number of Ukraine's troops killed. Have they stopped publishing those? Daily MoD reports include tallies of hardware but not the troops.
    Yet the troops too are mentioned in piecemeal fashion - XXX more killed within the last day. Obviously the MoD is tracking those too but for some reason they're not releasing updated tallies...


    I was unaware they ever released any tally of KIA/WIA.

    They'll mention some rough numbers in relation to recent strikes, but that's it.

    Others (Rybar, I think?) have collected and tried to verify these in order to keep running tallies, but no official instance has done so AFAIK.
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    Post  Hole Mon May 02, 2022 1:34 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frvbnx10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frvbrw10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frvbty10

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    Post  Hole Mon May 02, 2022 1:34 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frvbgx10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frvbk_10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frvbkz10

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    Post  eridan Mon May 02, 2022 1:43 pm

    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:


    I was unaware they ever released any tally of KIA/WIA.

    They'll mention some rough numbers in relation to recent strikes, but that's it.

    Others (Rybar, I think?) have collected and tried to verify these in order to keep running tallies, but no official instance has done so AFAIK.

    Sure, on April 16th was the last time that the media  (TASS for example) have reported that Russian MoD provided a figure, as far as I can tell. Back then it was 23367 Ukraine's troops killed.

    But since then - I couldn't find any further, newer tallies.

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    Post  franco Mon May 02, 2022 1:54 pm

    Erk wrote:Here is some video of civilians being helped out of the bunker.
    https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Azov.mp4

    I thought it was a bit odd that the soldier on the bus at the 1:04min mark had a blue arm band. Looks like they let a few masked soldiers out too.

    Suspect they were Ukrainian forces inside helping the the civilians get out of the plant to the Russian lines. The video appears to be all inside the plant area.

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    Post  GarryB Mon May 02, 2022 1:55 pm

    152mm Airburst shells can erase a radius of ~100m. They can be used on noncovered trenches. Most ukrainian trenches are non-covered.

    Trench lines that are open and constantly manned would be very vulnerable but not as vulnerable as you suggest... there is a point to standing in a trench during an artillery barrage... you do understand that don't you?

    Of course tanks can easily destroy fortifications. the 125mm HE shell has a range of 12km in direct fire, much higher than any ATGM. The russians also have thermobaric ATGMs which can destroy very heavy bunkers.

    Easily is the wrong word... the amount of HE rounds a tank force would need to carry would be enormous and a total waste of resources to use them that way considering two 250 kg bombs delivered by an Su-25 or Su-24 would be rather more effective and efficient but perhaps even then not good enough to destroy extensive prepared defences.

    Also Im frustrated that there are no advances from the south when that area isnt fortified.

    This is what it is all about... and it is perfectly understandable that you are frustrated... but slowly grinding the enemy down is resulting in very high casualties in the enemy forces, very low casualties in friendly forces and surrenders of enemy forces too... so why change the tactics now?

    Would more dead Russian soldiers shortening the conflict make you feel better?

    I hope not.

    Grad-P with messed up ammunition? Several of those don't even fly straight.

    The relatively small explosions I would guess an 80mm or 57mm rocket pod on the back of a light vehicle is being used to launch rockets and perhaps the mount is not stabilised or they are moving it to get a better spread of hits on target.

    There were also news that Ukraine successfully attacked command center near Izyum and eliminated big number of Russian officers - we already know that Ukraine is above average successful in doing that (8 Russian generals were sent in black bags back to Russia from 20 originally that came there at the start).

    We know Kiev excels at making all sorts of claims, but reality often proves them to be fake.

    The more hardware the west sends to the Ukraine to more orcs will be killed trying to use it.... assuming it gets to the front line at all because the resale value of some of it is probably just too hard to a chance to give up.

    In fact I suspect Orcs themselves are telling Russian intel where their HATO supplied ammo caches are so the Russians hit them with cruise missiles so HATO inspectors can't tell that half the stuff that is supposed to be there is already on its way to the Middle East...


    If Ukraine will survive the push from Russia, then it will all go to a standstill I don't see how Ukraine will be able to go on the offensive. They will face even more problems than Russians.

    Kiev trying to go on offensives would be wonderful... they would get out of their cities and their bunkers and get slaughtered in open fields very quickly and very easily by much smaller forces with air and artillery support.

    In short, Yuri said in his last video address that Ukraine will cease to exist as a state during this decade. According to Yuri, Moscow will integrate all the conquered territories into Russia.

    Russia does not want more land, it just wants to secure its borders... South Ossetia and Abkhazia are not part of the Russian Federation and the Donbass and Lugansk are not either... they are opening embassies in Moscow which makes no sense if they join the RF.

    They probably want to join the RF because of the danger of Kiev and HATO against small new republics, but I think Russia will want them to group together with other regions freed from nazi rule and work together to make a decent Ukrainian state that does speak Russian and trades with Russia and is successful and perhaps in 5 or 10 years let them decide what they want to do going forward.

    Obviously the MoD is tracking those too but for some reason they're not releasing updated tallies...

    Getting a bit high perhaps?

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    Post  PapaDragon Mon May 02, 2022 4:45 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:

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    The real Ghost of Kyiv are the friends we made along the way!

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon May 02, 2022 4:51 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    What really pisses me off is that that bridges on Dnepr are still standing. Just today, according to Rybar, at Lozovaya another 7 SPG was delivered from the west. Granted ,maybe they didn't come from the west of Dnepr, but isolating everything east of Dnepr will speed up demise of Ukr army in Donbas. Diesel and ammunition will become very scarce. It is a no brainer. I really have a problem understanding logic behind some of the decisions.

    The problem is that if you drop all the bridges and roads etc then Kiev will start whining about Holomodor II... Russians trying to starve Ukrainians again...

    If the bridges were militarily significant, if effective and powerful weapons were moving forward in bulk then of course they would drop them or at least damage them... but the fact of the matter is that without Leopard Is and M113s a lot of the Orc forces are going to stay in their bunkers... send them these vehicles and load them up with Orc meat and drive towards the enemy... they will be trivial to destroy and max range... the Orcs wont even see what hit them and all the supporting troops moving forward with the armour will be taken out by air power and artillery... the result is getting Orcs killed faster and showing western support for what it is... just accelerating the deaths of Ukrainians.
    Sorry Garry, but that botched logic will not work. According to Rybar just in two nights of April 30 and May 1, Ukrainians managed to tramsport around 2000 new soldiers and 50 units of various tech. 
    Aside from local counterattacks Ukrainians are not changing tactics and most of their forces are on defense or use hit and run and ambush tactics. 
    They don't show any willingness to go on offensive and talks about one are mostly used in propaganda purposes. Your wishful thinking of them attacking amd getting destroyed is just that. I'm thinling that US is planning their operations and that they are showed more than willing to protract this conflict as long as possible and make Russians bleed.
    Russians dexision makers succumbing to new Holodomor bs used for propaganda purposes, would be another victory for Ukraine in psychological warfare.  
    Your claim that bridges are maybe not militarily significant in a country that's crossed by major river with multiple dams, i will not comment. 
    Almost always ,in war, military is not only one that makes decisions. And many times military and politicians views clash. I believe this is one case of that. Instead of isolating to a largest possible degree Donbas and East Ukrainian groupings and destroying them easier, you allow them to replenish and bring fresh troops while increasing death toll and losses of your soldiers is a "3D chess", i don't want to even try to understand or justify.  
    Dancing around and playing "high moral ground" shtick has produced some really bad results in Ukraine so far.

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    Post  lancelot Mon May 02, 2022 5:10 pm

    So you would rather Russia fight the bulk of Ukraine's troops and equipment as far away from their own supply lines in Russia as possible?

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    Post  Hole Mon May 02, 2022 5:27 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    owais.usmani wrote:

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    The real Ghost of Kyiv are the friends we made along the way!


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frv_lf10

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon May 02, 2022 5:29 pm

    I believe that destruction of forces in East Ukraine would be a final blow. It would completely destroy the morale of the remaining troops and reservists. Most of the troops in the East are best trained, with most experience. Almost all nationalist battalions are in Donbas and around Kharkov.
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    Post  Hole Mon May 02, 2022 5:30 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frv_ef10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Frwjpi10
    Nazis moan about some historical building being destroyed, forget to mention the military stuff in and around it.
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 29 Scree260
    Looks like a Kh-59M used around Dnjepropetrovsk

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    Post  Hole Mon May 02, 2022 5:34 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:I believe that destruction of forces in East Ukraine would be a final blow. It would completely destroy the morale of the remaining troops and reservists. Most of the troops in the East are best trained, with most experience. Almost all nationalist battalions are in Donbas and around Kharkov.

    As long as the regime is getting paid they will try to fight. For show, at least. But the quality of the troops is getting lower and lower, which means the Russian Forces will achieve their goals easier and with less casualties while the casualties on the side of the Wehrmacht will skyrocket.

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    Post  mnztr Mon May 02, 2022 5:36 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:In short, Yuri said in his last video address that Ukraine will cease to exist as a state during this decade. According to Yuri, Moscow will integrate all the conquered territories into Russia.
    Ukraine on 30.04. turned off the Internet to the Kherson region and work is underway that the Kherson region gets the Internet from Russia.. The Kherson and Zaporizhia regions will also use ruble as a means of payment, salaries and pensions are paid by Russia.



    I read that all Soviet veterans will get an immediate 10000 ruble payment in the conquered territories as partial compensation for the back benefits and prelude to resumption. The Russian treasury is flush with oil money, they should spread it around to the people and rent some hearts and minds.

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    Post  PapaDragon Mon May 02, 2022 5:38 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:I believe that destruction of forces in East Ukraine would be a final blow. It would completely destroy the morale of the remaining troops and reservists. Most of the troops in the East are best trained, with most experience. Almost all nationalist battalions are in Donbas and around Kharkov.

    Not a final blow but it will be a good first step


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    Post  mnztr Mon May 02, 2022 5:40 pm

    Erk wrote:
    ucmvulcan wrote:What's the over under on days until Russia is accused of using nuclear, biological, or chemical weaponry?

    https://news.yahoo.com/kinzinger-introduces-aumf-defend-ukraine-165409177.html

    I don't think they need the AUMF bill, if Russia uses nukes it will be against NATO not Ukraine. ie. against the puppet masters not the puppets.

    I pick Poland as "NATO MEMBER MOST LIKELY TO BE NUKED" lol.

    Honestly I think their president goes to bed with a Tee Shirt that reads. "I dare you to nuke me"

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    Post  kvs Mon May 02, 2022 6:10 pm

    Hole wrote:
    caveat emptor wrote:I believe that destruction of forces in East Ukraine would be a final blow. It would completely destroy the morale of the remaining troops and reservists. Most of the troops in the East are best trained, with most experience. Almost all nationalist battalions are in Donbas and around Kharkov.

    As long as the regime is getting paid they will  try to fight. For show, at least. But the quality of the troops is getting lower and lower, which means the Russian Forces will achieve their goals easier and with less casualties while the casualties on the side of the Wehrmacht will skyrocket.

    I think NATzO and its Kiev stooges are planning to organize a NATzO supported army in western Ukraine. I was initially
    convinced that the LNDR cauldron would be the last stand but I now agree more with Mercouris and his South Vietnam
    comparison. This goes together with the analysis that the Kiev regime is not using its best forces in the east.
    So there is no clear progression to more poorly trained Ukr soldiers. Other analysts think that Poland will intervene.
    This would be consistent.

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    Post  Isos Mon May 02, 2022 6:11 pm

    That kh-59 either missed either was the newest version with double warhead that is used against bunkers.

    You can see one small explosion when it hit in front of the building followed by a bigger one which seems underground.

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    Post  LMFS Mon May 02, 2022 6:23 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:I believe that destruction of forces in East Ukraine would be a final blow. It would completely destroy the morale of the remaining troops and reservists. Most of the troops in the East are best trained, with most experience. Almost all nationalist battalions are in Donbas and around Kharkov.

    It will not, the West will keep the ukrainian corpse moving for as long as they want, unless Russia takes all the territory. Sad but true. There will be no peace in the liberated territories unless the nazis are eliminated together with the political establishment in Ukraine that gives them cover. They don't care to throw old man, women or teens into the battles, to bring American, Arabs, Uyghurs or whatever radicals and mercenaries they can find to the conflict. They need Russia to be bled dry by this war, and that if we re lucky and it does not extend to Transnistria, Kaliningrad, Caucasus etc. and becomes a world war. But I agree that removing those troops would make it much easier for Russia to advance in other regions

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    Post  franco Mon May 02, 2022 7:41 pm

    Azovstal civilians:

    Day 1 - 3
    Day 2 - 46
    Day 3 - 80
    Day 4 - 214

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    Post  Isos Mon May 02, 2022 7:52 pm

    West killing itself...

    Levi
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    Chinese regulators have held an emergency meeting with domestic and foreign banks to discuss how they could protect the country’s overseas assets from US-led sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia, according to people familiar with the discussion

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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Mon May 02, 2022 7:53 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:
    GarryB wrote:
    What really pisses me off is that that bridges on Dnepr are still standing. Just today, according to Rybar, at Lozovaya another 7 SPG was delivered from the west. Granted ,maybe they didn't come from the west of Dnepr, but isolating everything east of Dnepr will speed up demise of Ukr army in Donbas. Diesel and ammunition will become very scarce. It is a no brainer. I really have a problem understanding logic behind some of the decisions.

    The problem is that if you drop all the bridges and roads etc then Kiev will start whining about Holomodor II... Russians trying to starve Ukrainians again...

    If the bridges were militarily significant, if effective and powerful weapons were moving forward in bulk then of course they would drop them or at least damage them... but the fact of the matter is that without Leopard Is and M113s a lot of the Orc forces are going to stay in their bunkers... send them these vehicles and load them up with Orc meat and drive towards the enemy... they will be trivial to destroy and max range... the Orcs wont even see what hit them and all the supporting troops moving forward with the armour will be taken out by air power and artillery... the result is getting Orcs killed faster and showing western support for what it is... just accelerating the deaths of Ukrainians.
    Sorry Garry, but that botched logic will not work. According to Rybar just in two nights of April 30 and May 1, Ukrainians managed to tramsport around 2000 new soldiers and 50 units of various tech. 
    Aside from local counterattacks Ukrainians are not changing tactics and most of their forces are on defense or use hit and run and ambush tactics. 
    They don't show any willingness to go on offensive and talks about one are mostly used in propaganda purposes. Your wishful thinking of them attacking amd getting destroyed is just that. I'm thinling that US is planning their operations and that they are showed more than willing to protract this conflict as long as possible and make Russians bleed.
    Russians dexision makers succumbing to new Holodomor bs used for propaganda purposes, would be another victory for Ukraine in psychological warfare.  
    Your claim that bridges are maybe not militarily significant in a country that's crossed by major river with multiple dams, i will not comment. 
    Almost always ,in war, military is not only one that makes decisions. And many times military and politicians views clash. I believe this is one case of that. Instead of isolating to a largest possible degree Donbas and East Ukrainian groupings and destroying them easier, you allow them to replenish and bring fresh troops while increasing death toll and losses of your soldiers is a "3D chess", i don't want to even try to understand or justify.  
    Dancing around and playing "high moral ground" shtick has produced some really bad results in Ukraine so far.




    The "high moral ground" is an excuse for the so-called "Russians" who are either partially or fully of ethnic Ukrainian origin, protecting their really own people.


    Too bad that those whining ethnic Ukrainians do not care about such considerations with regard to other ethnicities/nationalities:

    http://asaland.proboards.com/thread/460/land-zamosc-zamojszczyzna-1942-1944

    http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html




    Putin himself is responsible for many of the bad decisions.

    He has been a Ukrainophile until recently, perhaps he still is?


    How come the major grouping of the Ukrainian forces west of the Donbas has not been carpet bombed?




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