Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Ispan wrote:Dr.Snufflebug wrote:[
...The warhead was almost certainly the anti-personnel 9N123F, given the lack of an impact crater and lack of significant structural damage on surrounding buildings. It blows up about 20m above ground, showering the area in shrapnel..
A single warhead? I hadn't looked at the photos and I thought they were cluster munitions.
No briefing today but found this good report of today's fighting
I see almost no structural damage at all anywhere, and no craters, just piles of dead people that look as though they've been shot, again consistent with shrapnel. A few cars parked nearby caught fire though - red hot shrapnel pierced their fuel tanks I guess.
I'd guess that the warhead exploded some 50 meters north west of the station, above the rails at 15-20m altitude tops (the datasheet for the warhead says 10-20m). Most dead are in the outdoor waiting area to the south adjacent to the station. One person was killed on the parking lot in front of the station, right where the burned cars are, and there is an opening towards the area of explosion right there, between the station and another structure.
Meanwhile, the thin tin roofs of several adjacent buildings are untouched etc. Suggesting a near horizontal shrapnel "spray" pattern from low altitude.
edit:south waiting area too
So, just based on the photos and videos:
I am no expert on any of these things so I could be completely wrong, but typically the engine unit falls off shortly before impact and has a lot more drag and less momentum (grid fins, blunt front, empty husk of metal) than the warhead (streamlined, heavy), so it falls short of the intended target, in this case a bit over 100m, and it gives a rough idea of the trajectory.
The warhead that I am guessing it was (9N123F), again I could be wrong but that's what it looks like to me, has a stated coverage of between 2 and 3 hectares, so I went with about 2.5 hectares here. Since it detonates at a low altitude, stated as 15 +/- 5m, buildings of modest height are enough to absorb a lot of it (it is designed to be used in the open), and would create obvious "shadows" for the 14 500 pieces of pre-fractured anti-personnel shrapnel it carries, which is also supported by the locations of the victims.
Flight path is just a rough estimate, the engine unit doesn't necessarily fall *completely* in line, but never far from it, absolutely certain southwestern origin. We do know from eyewitnesses that they saw and heard it incoming from the southwest as well, and the RU MoD immediately mentioned Dobropolye/Dobropillya specifically. So all of that adds up.
So, just to illustrate my line of thought, nothing else. R.I.P to those poor souls...
Worth quoting the whole post. This rather clinches the direction of flight of the Tochka-U. No need for some investigation
to demonstrate the same thing.
The only response to hate propaganda is to ignore it and if its peddlers get to uppity to smack them down. Russia can and
will smack NATzO down. I do not see the yanquis deploying massive amounts of their conventional forces to the Russian border.
It would take them up to a year to prepare for any ground war on Russia. EU chihuahuas like Poland will be handled by Russia
so fast that they won't know what hit them. The only reason that Russia is taking so long in "Ukraine" is that it trying to minimize
civilian casualties. Polish invasion forces will not be marching to Moscow.